Canberra Raiders v Redcliffe Dolphins
Saturday 11 March, 5:30pm AEDT (4:30pm local)
Dolphin Oval
Gates open: 4:00pm
Tickets: Sold out
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502, Kayo
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Showers.
Cloudy. Very high chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm with possible heavy falls. Light winds. Daytime maximum temperatures in the mid to high 20s. Chance of any rain: 100 per cent Possible rainfall: 15 to 70 mm Min 22 Max 27The Canberra Raiders have remained north of the border and headed into camp on Queensland's Sunshine Coast as they prepare for their Round 2 clash with the newbies, the Dolphins. It is the second premiership match for the new entrant to the NRL, and the first at their home ground, Dolphin Oval at Redcliffe.
Last round: 2023 Round 1. North Queensland Cowboys 19 - Canberra Raiders 18. It was a game of two halves, as the oft used rugby league saying goes. The Cowboys almost played the completely perfect first half. They had an absolute mountain of possession and territory. It was remarkable, really, that the Raiders conceded just three tries in the opening 40 minutes. A testament to their defence. The Canberra comeback was even more remarkable. But when the Cowboys were offered the opportunity for a late field goal, they grabbed it.
More on Round 1: As I saw it
Team news: Raiders winger Jordan Rapana has been suspended for three matches, after a shoulder charge on Cowboys fullback Scott Drinkwater in Round 1. He's replaced by Albert Hopoate. Coach Ricky Stuart has said that he will be sticking with Sebastian Kris at fullback, until Xavier Savage returns from a broken jaw. But Hopoate gives Stuart extra fullback cover during the match. There are no other changes to the top 17. Josh Papalii (calf) has travelled to the Queensland to be part of the camp on the Sunshine Coast - but he has not been named. He's out until Round 4.
Mason Teague will make his NRL debut off the bench for the Dolphins replacing Ray Stone. Former Raiders Brenko Lee and Mark Nicholls have been named in the top 17, while another former Raider, Anthony Milford is on the reserves list.
Late changes: The Raiders omitted Zac Woolford, Trey Mooney and Peter Hola from their squad on Friday afternoon. The Dolphins cut JJ Collins, Kodi Nikorima, Anthony Milford. Neither team made any changes to their top 17.
History: The Raiders have played one NRL match at Dolphin Oval before - last year's Round 8 loss to the New Zealand Warriors. That match was memorable for all the wrong reasons. Canberra has also played some trial matches at Redcliffe. There was not much joy there either.
In 2007, the Raiders faced a combined Brisbane Broncos and Redcliffe Dolphins outfit. The same week, the Broncos met St Helens in the World Club Challenge in England. So 10 members of Brisbane's Queensland Cup feeder team the Aspley Broncos and nine Dolphins combined - and beat a full strength Raiders team, 18-12.
The Raiders led 6-4 at half time in a mistake riddled contest, but the Broncos-Dolphins ran in three tries in seven minutes at the back end of the second half. Wingers Denam Kemp and Gideon Mzembe, fullback Ryan Cullen and centre Nick Emmett all crossed for the home team, while Adrian Purtell and Phil Graham scored for the Raiders. It was reportedly the first time in 24 years that an NRL team had lost a trial to a lower tier team. The previous occasion saw a Group 9 representative team beat the Raiders, 24-18, in Temora in 1983.
Then in 2009, the Raiders met a full strength Broncos team in a Dolphin Oval trial - and lost 30-16. In front of a crowd in excess of 10,000, David Milne, Dane Tilse and Josh McCrone scored the three tries for the Raiders.
Dolphins coach Wayne Bennett and Raiders coach Ricky Stuart are two of the longest serving coaches in the history of the game in Australia. They have faced each other in 29 matches - and Stuart has produced a win just nine times. Since Stuart joined the Raiders, Stuart has coached the club to victory against Bennett just three times, from 11 games. One of those was the memorable 2019 Preliminary Final won by the Raiders at Canberra Stadium.
Form: Raiders: WWWLL
Dolphins: One win.
The Dolphins produced a shock 28-18 win in their first ever NRL match in front of over 32,000 at Lang Park on Sunday. The unfortunate team to go down in the history books as their first victim? The Sydney Roosters. The Raiders, meanwhile, made a huge comeback in Townsville from 18-0 down - but the Cowboys produced a late field goal and a 19-18 win.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.60 favourites, with the Dolphins paying $2.35. The Dolphins have 3.5 points start in the line betting. The Dolphins' odds have shortened over the week.
Stat attack: Former Broncos winger, Jamayne Isaako bagged a double and scored 16 points in the season opener for the Dolphins. He also made 184 running metres and six tackle breaks. But the whole Dolphins team made heaps of metres. Fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow led the way with 192 metres gained. Former Raiders forward Mark Nicolls produced 17 runs for 174 metres gained. The Bromwich brothers also broke the 100 metre mark. The Raiders will have to have to find a way to stem that sort of tide. They'll also have to watch hooker Jeremy Marshall-King. He was man of the match against the Roosters, and produced two try assists and a line break - while making 40 tackles.
2023 Season record: Raiders 0 and 1 (8th, -1)
Dolphins 1 and 0 (3rd, +10)
Attack: Raiders 18 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked equal sixth on tries scored
Dolphins 28 points and 5 tries scored per match, equal first on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 19 points and 3 tries conceded per match
Dolphins 18 points and 3 tries conceded per match
Possession: Raiders 46 per cent, Dolphins 56 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 78 per cent, Dolphins 78 per cent
Running: Raiders 1495 running metres per match
Dolphins 1853 running metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 29, Dolphins 32 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 3, Dolphins 5 per match
Try assists: Raiders 1, Dolphins 5 per match
Offloads: Raiders 8, Dolphins 13 per match
Kicking: Raiders 606 kicking metres per match
Dolphins 439 kicking metres per match
Missed tackles: Raiders 39, Dolphins 33 per match
Ineffective tackles: Raiders 8, Dolphins 9 per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Dolphins 12 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Dolphins 2 per match
My tip: The Raiders are surprisingly favourites in this match. Statistical comparisons at this stage of the year don't tell us a whole lot, the eye test is the only thing we've got. And the eye test suggests that the Raiders are in for a very tough contest on Saturday. As you'd expect from a Wayne Bennett team, the Dolphins looked well drilled in game one. Their attack was cohesive and expansive - unlike the Raiders when they finally got some ball in the second half. The Raiders' defence was probably more impressive, given the uneven possession share they had to handle in Townsville. It remains to be seen how the Dolphins handle a grinding game.
The home crowd will benefit the Dolphins. Dolphin Oval is a sell out. It is a "boutique stadium" with only 10,000 seats. The Raiders have plenty of fans in Queensland - but there are also plenty of reports that they could not get tickets. It should be a good atmosphere, but one that will obviously favour the home team. The weather will still be warm, but rain is forecast, which should help the Green Machine. I'm going to tip the Raiders, but not by much. Raiders by four.
What they're saying:
Coach Ricky Stuart on the loss to the Cowboys: "The way we fought back, the boys have got a very proud coach. We've got a lot to work off. You have a look at the statistics with 15 minutes to go in the first half. There's not many football teams would then be 18 all with three or four to go in the second half - especially up here in this humidity and the uncomfortable climate. We didn't get the points and that's the disappointing part. But we've got something to work with here."
Canberra Raiders
1. Sebastian Kris
2. Nick Cotric
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Harley Smith-Shields
5. Albert Hopoate
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Pasami Saulo
9. Danny Levi
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Corey Harawira-Naera
14. Tom Starling
15. Ata Mariota
16. Corey Horsburgh
17. Emre Guler
18. James Schiller
19. Matt Frawley
Injury/Suspension
Josh Papalii, Calf (Round 4)
Jordan Rapana, Suspension (Round 5)
Xavier Savage, Jaw (Round 7)
Adrian Trevilyan, Shoulder/ACL (Mid-season 2023)
Redcliffe Dolphins
1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
2. Jamayne Isaako
3. Euan Aitken
4. Brenko Lee
5. Tesi Niu
6. Isaiya Katoa
7. Sean O'Sullivan
8. Jesse Bromwich
9. Jeremy Marshall-King
10. Jarrod Wallace
11. Felise Kaufusi
12. Kenny Bromwich
13. Tom Gilbert
14. Connelly Lemuelu
15. Mark Nicholls
16. Mason Teague
17. Kurt Donoghoe
18. Poasa Faamausili
22. Robert Jennings
Injury/Suspension
Edrick Lee, Ankle (Round 3)
Herman Ese'ese, Pectoral (Round 4)
Officials
Referee: Todd Smith
Touch judges: Drew Oultram, Nick Pelgrave
Video referee: Gerard Sutton
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLDolphinsRaiders
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