Canberra Raiders v Cronulla Sharks
Sunday 31 March, 6:15pm
Shark Park
Jersey Flegg: Raiders v Sharks, 4:00pm
Tickets: Sold out
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio coverage: ABC, Mix106.3, 2CC
Weather: Mostly sunny. Patchy morning fog then a mostly sunny day. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the late evening. Chance of any rain: 0 per cent. Min 18 Max 24
The Canberra Raiders are on the road again in Round 4. They travel to the Shire for a clash with Cronulla at Shark Park.
Last round: 2024 Round 3. New Zealand Warriors 18 - Canberra Raiders 10. Undefeated no longer. The Raiders were right in the clash with the New Zealand Warriors. They brought their grinding game plan of the opening two rounds to Christchurch. They were on top for a lengthy period. They might have even won, but for a few crucial moments. But in the end, the Warriors prevailed, primarily because they had better strike in attack.
More on Round 3: As I saw it
Team news: Raiders back Sebastian Kris return for this match, after missing Round 3 due to concussion protocols. He slots straight back into the centres, with James Schiller coming in on the wing. Albert Hopoate is out after suffering minor burns while cooking, while Nick Cotric drops to the reserves list.
Emre Guler drops back to NSW Cup this week, with Ata Mariota elevated to firsts on the bench. Surprisingly, Corey Horsburgh has not returned to the top 17, after he made a very successful comeback in NSW Cup at Seiffert Oval last weekend.
The Sharks have lost Toby Rudolph, Dale Finucane and Royce Hunt for lengthy periods after they suffered injuries in the loss to the Tigers. Kayal Iro comes in at centre, with Siosifa Talakai moving to the second row and Jack Williams dropping to the bench. Daniel Atkinson and Tuku Hau Tapuha have been added to the interchange list.
Milestone: This will be Jordan Rapana's 200th NRL game for the Canberra Raiders.
Late changes: Elliott Whitehead (calf) has been ruled out by the Raiders. Zac Hosking will start in the second row, while Nick Cotric and Kaeo Weekes have been left on the reserves list. Trey Mooney had been named as 18th man, but Nick Cotric will take on those duties. The Sharks were left unchanged 1-29, when the squads were reduced on Saturday evening.
History: The Raiders have won 41 of 81 matches against the Cronulla Sharks, for a 51 per cent win rate. Canberra was on a nine game winning streak against the Sharks, until they lost to the Sharks at Cronulla in Round 27 last year. Early in 2023, the Raiders produced a 24-20 win at Canberra Stadium, after a 2 and 0 start to the year. The Sharks scored the final two tries of the game, but Canberra withstood the late charge.
The Raiders have won only 13 of 35 games against Cronulla at Shark Park. But the Green Machine has won six of the past 10 matches at Cronulla, and five of the last seven. Canberra has had some long losing stretches at Shark Park too. They won just once between 1988 and 2002 at the dilapidated venue, and lost eight in a row from 1994 to 2002.
2023 Rd 27 Sharks 24 defeated Raiders 6 at Shark Park
2023 Rd 3 Raiders 24 defeated Sharks 20 at Canberra Stadium
2022 Rd 10 Raiders 30 defeated Sharks 10 at Lang Park
2022 Rd 1 Raiders 24 defeated Sharks 19 at Canberra Stadium
2021 Rd 18 Raiders 34 defeated Sharks 18 at Robina Stadium
Form: Raiders: LLWWL
Sharks: WLWWL
The Raiders and Sharks both started 2024 with back to back wins. The Sharks beat the Warriors in a close fought game, 16-12, in Auckland in Round 1, and followed up with a win at home against the Bulldogs (25-6). However, they were ambushed by the Tigers (32-6) at Leichhardt Oval on Saturday. The Raiders started with wins over the Knights (28-12) and Tigers (32-12), before losing to the Warriors (18-10) in Christchurch on Friday night.
Betting: The Sharks are $1.60 favourites, with the Raiders paying $2.35. The Raiders have 3.5 points start in the line betting. The Raiders' odds have shortened over the course of this week.
Stat attack: There is a fair distance between these two teams in terms of places on the ladder. But that's illusory. Both teams have the same win/loss record in 2024. Canberra's attack has been better so far, but both teams are among the better defensive outfits, on average. The Raiders still have the best possession share and completion rate in the league - which is unusual for them. They have also posted the most dummy half runs, along with the Storm.
Jamal Fogarty still leads the competition for most kicking metres, but the Sharks are second in that department, with Nicho Hynes ranking fourth in the NRL. Morgan Smithies has the most decoy runs (31) in the competition.
2024 Season record: Raiders 2 and 1 (3rd, +28), 1 and 1 away
Sharks 2 and 1 (10th, -3), 1 and 0 at home
Attack: Raiders 23 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked equal 5th on average tries scored
Sharks 16 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked equal 14th on average tries scored
Defence: Raiders 14 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked 4th on average tries conceded
Sharks 17 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 5th on average tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 54 per cent, Sharks 49 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 87 per cent, Sharks 76 per cent
Running: Raiders 1704 running metres per match, ranked 6th
Sharks 1644 running metres per match, ranked 9th
Tackle breaks: Raiders 30, Sharks 36 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 5, Sharks 5 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Sharks 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 8, Sharks 8 per match
Kicking: Raiders 725 kicking metres per match, ranked 1st
Sharks 663 kicking metres per match, ranked 2nd
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1358, Sharks 1489 per match
Missed tackles: Raiders 27, Sharks 35 per match
Ineffective tackles: Raiders 12, Sharks 16 per match
Tackle efficiency: Raiders 89 per cent, Sharks 87 per cent
Errors: Raiders 8, Sharks 12 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Sharks 6 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 7, Sharks 5 per match
My tip: The Sharks are favourites in this game, though the statistics for 2024 suggest the odds should probably be closer. Both teams had losses last week, but the Sharks were more disappointing. It is a home game for the Sharks, but Canberra has had a fairly good recent record in the Shire. And the Sharks have a number of "outs" due to injury. I think the Raiders have a good chance of winning. But if they win, it'll probably be a slugfest and a narrow margin. I'll go with the Raiders by two.
Canberra Raiders
1. Jordan Rapana
2. James Schiller
3. Matt Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Xavier Savage
6. Ethan Strange
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Danny Levi
10. Joe Tapine
11. Hudson Young
16. Zac Hosking
13. Morgan Smithies
14. Tom Starling
15. Ata Mariota
17. Pasami Saulo
19. Corey Horsburgh
22. Nick Cotric
20. Kaeo Weekes
Injury/Suspension
Albert Hopoate, Burns (Round 5)
Corey Harawira-Naera, Seizure (TBA)
Cronulla Sharks
1. William Kennedy
2. Sione Katoa
3. Jesse Ramien
4. Kayal Iro
5. Ronaldo Mulitalo
6. Braydon Trindall
7. Nicho Hynes
8. Thomas Hazelton
9. Blayke Brailey
10. Oregon Kaufusi
11. Siosifa Talakai
12. Teig Wilton
13. Cameron McInnes
14. Daniel Atkinson
15. Jack Williams
16. Billy Burns
17. Tuku Hau Tapuha
18. Jayden Berrell
19. Blake Hosking
Injury/Suspension
Braden Hamlin-Uele, Knee (TBA)
Briton Nikora, Suspension (Round 5)
Dale Finucane, Facial fracture (Round 6-8)
Toby Rudolph, Ankle (Round 7-10)
Royce Hunt, Calf (Round 8)
Jesse Colquhoun, Foot (Indefinite)
Officials
Referee: Todd Smith
Touch judges: Kasey Badger, Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski
Video referee: Gerard Sutton
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLSharksRaiders
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