2024 salary cap analysis: What every club’s roster is really worth

[Conor]

The premise is that these figures are the perceived value of players, not even approximate actual contract figures.

I know Buzz and Brent Read are morons working in a broken industry, but it’s almost admirable that they can still find ways to actively contribute less and less to rugby league.

There might actually be an interesting piece of work to be done on how a salary cap with a points system and player ratings could work, but these two are obviously incapable of conceiving it or writing it.

[Roy Rover]

The fact these idiots think Hosking is being paid more than Angus Crichton shows how stupid they are

I can remember it being reported when Crichton left Souths for the Roosters he had been offered close to one million to go to the Chooks.

[Seiffert82]

I think a cap floor is an important part of any salary cap.
The NRL are giving us a grant that covers the entire cap and then some, the players and league have negotiated a revenue splitting arrangement that ensures the players get a fair share of the revenue they are generating. Making teams HAVE to spend a certain amount of money is a key protection for the players group, it's ensures clubs arent just sitting on that money that is allocated to the players and taking it for themselves.

So IMO a salary cap floor is a non negotiable MUST for any cap league. The NRL's cap floor is absurdly high and not flexible enough.
95% every year, no exceptions absolutely hamstrings clubs at the bottom from giving themselves avenues to build and get out of the cellar.
I much prefer the way the NFL do it. Which is somewhat complicated by the simple version:

- Teams can roll over unused cap space into the following year, this allows them to build spending money and target specific high profile players
- Teams must spend at least 89% of the salary cap across any 4 year period (i previously thought it was 90 over 3 but it seems they altered it slightly in the newest CBA)
- The NFL as a whole must spend 95% of the cap

It provides the protections for the players to ensure teams don't steal their money but also allows flexibility for teams

Yes, the cap absolutely needs a few more sophisticated measures like this.

Without a draft in place (which should NEVER be tried again in the NRL), the inflexible cap floor is a surefire way of ensuring struggling clubs continue to struggle.

In saying that, the Tigers are also to blame for **** up their own junior development.

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[Bluesbrother]

Buzz Rothfeild and Brent Reed wouldn't have a clue what's going on. Their journalism is similar to a woman's weekly column. Wouldn't trust these numbers - pure opinion of guys who only report on Sydney clubs plus the Broncos. Don't know rugby league but do know the soap opera that is the media of the game. Seriously over these people reporting on the game with such dribble.

[papabear]

Friendly reminder
The cap is 11.6m across a 30 man squad

That’s 386k each if averaged evenly
Some of those numbers are on the nose but if you’re a starting calibre player in the nrl with an 11.6m cap, you’re going to get 350-400k
That’s just the economics of it now.

It wasn’t that long ago we were dealing with 5-6m salary caps and I think people who have followed the game for years haven’t really adjusted to how quickly the cap has risen

Do I think Danny Levi is worth 380k? No but the club signed him with the intention that he’d be their starter. You’re not paying first sting players less than 350k unless they’re still on the low value contracts they signed before debuting

And Billy is right to point out these are estimations from a couple of people I wouldn’t trust to run a bath

I agree with sentiment, not sure on the math.

Let’s say your bottom 10 are only about the minimum of 150k which I think is unlikely, more likely you have a few more on more..

That leaves 10m for 20 players… you could say 500k a pop but I think you look at getting some really good key players let’s say your top 4 guys average out to about 3.6m (could easily be more).

Leaving 6.4 for 16… let’s say your next 6 real quality players average out at 4m

Leaves only 2.4 for your 10 next players outside your top 10 averaging out to 240k a pop…

[Botman]

The maths is pretty simple mate
A cap of 11.6m divided by 30 is $386,666

Now i understand you can slice and dice that 11.6m across 30 people in a virtually unlimited number of ways and that's going to differ club to club, a club like the knights where they're paying Ponga 1.4m is going to have a salary cap roster profile that looks different to a club like ours who's highest paid player is significantly lower than that. How each team looks like is unknown because player salaries are not public knowledge. There might be clubs that have a structure similar to what you've laid out and others that look nothing like that.

But the point is we've got nearly 12 million dollars to pay 30 people... best get used to the idea that the Starling and Levi's of the NRL world, who are signed to be top 17 footballers are taking home 350k+ now.

[LimeGreenMachine]

I didn't read the article or who wrote it but I saw something about the Dolphins having millions left in their cap. How is that possible

[NoMan]

The cap is only finalized at the end of the season, so they will use the money before then.

[Rick]

I didn't read the article or who wrote it but I saw something about the Dolphins having millions left in their cap. How is that possible

The whole article is about what they think the players and team are “worth” not what they think they are getting paid.

Essentially they are saying Dolphins have had to overpay to get what they have and a club like the Roosters can pay unders to assemble the squad they have.


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[NoMan]

Wayne Bennet was in a different article talking about them been 2m under.

Bennett's millions of reasons to make Pangai a Dolphin: https://www.aapnews.com.au/news/bennett ... /RkzNJfLpy

[Northern Raider]

They deadset phoned it in on that list. Have a few of the notable rep players on higher values e.g. Tapine, Young, Papalii. The rest they have thrown into a bucket around $400k-$500k. Looks like they just threw the names into a spreadsheet and ran a simple formula.

[LimeGreenMachine]

I didn't read the article or who wrote it but I saw something about the Dolphins having millions left in their cap. How is that possible

The whole article is about what they think the players and team are “worth” not what they think they are getting paid.

Essentially they are saying Dolphins have had to overpay to get what they have and a club like the Roosters can pay unders to assemble the squad they have.


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I know that article and understood what it was about, the article I'm thinking of was one from the other , think it was related to TPJ

[LimeGreenMachine]

The Dolphins are "a couple of million dollars" under the salary cap this year, coach Wayne Bennett has revealed, with enough cash to afford blockbusting forward Tevita Pangai Jr.

Read more : https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/85 ... a-dolphin/

[zim]

I prefer that to him turning up on peanuts late in the season for the broncos.

[gerg]

They deadset phoned it in on that list. Have a few of the notable rep players on higher values e.g. Tapine, Young, Papalii. The rest they have thrown into a bucket around $400k-$500k. Looks like they just threw the names into a spreadsheet and ran a simple formula.

By "they" I'm assuming you mean the "DT intern". I'm not sure Buzz knows what Excel is, let alone creating a formula.

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[Rick]

The Dolphins are "a couple of million dollars" under the salary cap this year, coach Wayne Bennett has revealed, with enough cash to afford blockbusting forward Tevita Pangai Jr.

Read more : https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/85 ... a-dolphin/

Ahh ok. Yeah I wonder at what point through the year you need to hit the % of the cap?


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[NoMan]

The Dolphins are "a couple of million dollars" under the salary cap this year, coach Wayne Bennett has revealed, with enough cash to afford blockbusting forward Tevita Pangai Jr.

Read more : https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/85 ... a-dolphin/

Ahh ok. Yeah I wonder at what point through the year you need to hit the % of the cap?


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End of the season.

[Cranky Old Man]

As all players must receive the minimum wage of $130k (total $3.9m) and all clubs must spend 97.5% of their cap, leaves a max of about $7.5m as "discretionary" spending to be divvied up amongst the players. That equals $250k each divided equally, which it wont be.

[gerg]

The Dolphins are "a couple of million dollars" under the salary cap this year, coach Wayne Bennett has revealed, with enough cash to afford blockbusting forward Tevita Pangai Jr.

Read more : https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/85 ... a-dolphin/

Ahh ok. Yeah I wonder at what point through the year you need to hit the % of the cap?


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End of the season.

I thought the key milestones during different points of the year were the numbers of players signed. Just as an example / not exact dates ... by 1st June clubs had to have 29 players signed and by 1st August they had to have 30. However I also thought the criteria for top 30 was simply the 30 highest paid players in the squad. So I guess it may be possible to already have 30 players signed up and have money set aside for a marquee signing. If and when you sign a marquee player your previously lowest paid player drops out of your top 30.

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[NoMan]

Yeah, its the 30 highest paid Players. Players past top 30 are technically uncapped so it wouldn't work otherwise. I guess teams can still adjust deals past August 1st.

The chairmans have to make a stat dec at the start and the end of the year that they are compliant.

[GreenFeva]

Guler and Hoskings are paid way overs on that.

TBH I like hoskings but you can't tell me going out and paying 450k on a 5th string second rower was a moneyball play.

450K for Hosking looks pretty good now!


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[LimeGreenMachine]

NRL 2024: Which teams are ready to win the premiership now

RAIDERS

The roster:

2024 (7): Elliott Whitehead, James Schiller, Jordan Rapana, Nick Cotric, Peter Hola, Trey Mooney, Zac Woolford
2025 (11): Albert Hopoate, Danny Levi, Emre Guler, Ethan Strange, Hohepa Puru, Josh Papali’i, Kaeo Weekes, Matt Timoko, Simi Sasagi, Tom Starling, Xavier Savage
2026 (6): Ata Mariota, Corey Harawira-Naera, Morgan Smithies, Pasami Saulo, Zac Hosking, Jamal Fogarty
2027 (4): Chevy Stewart, Corey Horsburgh, Hudson Young, Sebastian Kris
2028 (1): Joseph Tapine

The upside: Chevy Stewart is a bright spark of a fullback locked in for the next four seasons, while rising second-rower Noah Martin joins the NRL squad in 2026 with big potential.

Priority position: Spine. Jamal Fogarty comes off contract in 2026, but that still leaves a young halves combination to steer the ship, and most likely Stewart or Kaeo Weekes at the back. A genuine backline superstar is needed.

Analysis: The bulk of the Raiders squad has been together for some years now but there’s a changing of the guard. Respected prop Josh Papali’i can negotiate with rival clubs at the end of this season, and at 31 it’s likely to be his last contract. At 34, Jordan Rapana is also off contract, along with Elliott Whitehead. However, rep forwards Corey Horsburgh, Hudson Young and Joseph Tapine are all locked in long term.

Premiership window: Open in two years with good recruitment.

Read more: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport ... 95be8ca608

[Botman]

Looking at that, i think we should be planning on turning over roughly 1/3rd of our squad in the next 2 years
I've got 9-12 players in 2024-25 that we should be hoping to move on for varying reasons and either replace with younger/better talent or recruit the replacement

[Finchy]

Looking at that, i think we should be planning on turning over roughly 1/3rd of our squad in the next 2 years
I've got 9-12 players in 2024-25 that we should be hoping to move on for varying reasons and either replace with younger/better talent or recruit the replacement

I'd say you'd have Whitehead, Fogarty, Levi, Woolford, Guler, Saulo, Starling, Rapana, Hopoate on the list. Who else? Papa maybe?

[Botman]

Just looking at 2024-25, and with the caveat that it's based solely on my opinions right now and that they could change (Hosking is a good example of how quickly my opinions on a player can change)

Retirement: Whitehead, Rapana... maybe Papa? We'll have to wait and see.
Woolford/Starling/Levi - Pick one to be the back up, send the other two packing, recruit a starter for the next few years as we assess the litany of young talent we have at the position

Schiller, Mooney, Cotric, Puru, Guler, throw in Hoppa there if you want... all in the same boat, players i think would see themselves as NRL FG players, but dont really have a FG future here long term. Ideally id love to keep Schiller, Mooney, Guler and Puru. They are good players, and still yet to his their prime, they are excellent depth players at positions you need depth in. Mooney in particular, but i can't expect players to sit around in NSW Cup when they can be playing FG elsewhere.

Hola might stick around but if he does, it shouldn't be as a top 30 squad member.

And then there is Kaeo Weekes, Simi Sasagi and Corey Harawira-Naera
Weekes and Sasagi again are players you don't mind keeping, but they're versatile squad fillers but they came here for opportunities and might go looking for them again. CHN is that limbo situation due to his medical clearance, i still think it's likely he is forced to retire.

[NoMan]

I reckon Papa can comfortably play until he is 34 or 35, I don't know where the retirement talk keeps coming from. He is still playing great footy and has never really been below a good first grade player for more than a few weeks over 14 seasons. I really hope he gets extended and breaks the Raiders all time games record but I wouldn't begrudge him chasing more money elsewhere.

[Botman]

He's still playing great footy and if he keeps that up, i'll happily have him as long as he wants to be here. Id love to see him break the games record
But i am also mindful that he could decide to retire, it's a tough position he's played for a lot of years.
And that he's spoken about probably moving back to QLD when he retires to be closer to family, and i wouldn't begrudge him if circumstances where such that he decided to take a 1-2 year big money deal to finish his career up with the titans or dolphins.

[-TW-]

I reckon Papa can comfortably play until he is 34 or 35, I don't know where the retirement talk keeps coming from. He is still playing great footy and has never really been below a good first grade player for more than a few weeks over 14 seasons. I really hope he gets extended and breaks the Raiders all time games record but I wouldn't begrudge him chasing more money elsewhere.

A bad injury above 30 always accelerates retirement speculation.

He's the leanest I remember this season and he's punching out good minutes. If he stays fit and disciplined he could easily go at least 2 more.

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[Finchy]

Yeah until Papa is consistently throwing up EW levels of attack and defence to the point he’s not up to first grade standard, he can stay as long as he wants. He’s not quite as good as he was in 2019 when he was at his peak, but he’s still comfortably our number 2 prop IMO, although Hors is getting close to taking over