Canberra Raiders v Wests Tigers
Saturday 16 March, 3:00pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 10:45am
Jersey Flegg: Raiders v Tigers: 11:00am
NSW Cup: Raiders v Magpies: 12:40pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio coverage: ABC, Mix106.3, 2CC
Weather: Partly cloudy. Light winds becoming east to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming light in the late evening. Chance of any rain: 5 per cent Min 9 Max 23
The Canberra Raiders are at home for the first time in 2024 on Saturday, when they host the Wests Tigers. It'll be the season opener for the Tigers, after they drew the short straw when the Round 1 bye was decided.
Last round: 2024 Round 1. Canberra Raiders 28 defeated Newcastle Knights 12. Raiders coach Ricky Stuart had been telling us that the epic Week 1 finals loss to the Knights formed the basis of his team's pre-season preparations. Not because of the things he saw in the extra time loss that needed to be improved. But because it gave him something to build upon. The Raiders surprised everyone in that game. They were intense, they were gritty, they were "brawlers". It was classic Ricky Stuart "grindball". Exactly the game plan that Ricky Stuart brought to the Round 1 re-match.
More on Round 1: As I saw it
Team news: Raiders back Sebastian Kris returns from suspension this week, while Corey Horsburgh is banned until Round 3. Kris slots straight in at centre, with Albert Hopoate moving to the wing. Nick Cotric has been dropped to 18th man. Elliott Whitehead is out with a calf injury. Canberra coach Ricky Stuart has said that Whitehead might only be sidelined for two or three weeks - better than originally feared. But Zac Hosking will again line up in Whitehead's regular second row spot. Hooker Danny Levi (quad) has been cleared to play.
Rookie Lachlan Galvin is a surprise starter at five-eighth for the Tigers, while Solomona Faataape will make his first NRL appearance in the centres. Jayden Sullivan, Aidan Sezer and Samuela Fainu all make their club debut for the Tigers. Sullivan has been given the No.7 jersey, while Fainu and former Raider Sezer will start on the bench. Two other former Raider will also line up - second rower John Bateman and winger Junior Tupou.
Late changes: The Raiders are 1-19, with Simi Sasagi, Zac Woolford and Trey Mooney dropping out of the squad on Friday afternoon. The Tigers have also left their starting line up unchanged, cutting Tallyn Da Silva, Justin Matamua and Alexander Lobb from the extended bench.
History: The Raiders have won 23 of 42 matches against the Wests Tigers, for a 55 per cent win rate. Including games played against the Wests Magpies and Balmain Tigers prior to the joint venture, the Raiders have won 56 of 99 contests. That 57 per cent win rate is boosted by the 75 per cent win rate against the Magpies.
For a long time, the Tigers were a bit of a bogey team for the Raiders. However, that's now changed. The Raiders have lost only once in the 12 matches played since 2015 - and have won the past seven straight. The Raiders won both contests in 2023.
Canberra withstood a very late comeback in the Round 14 clash at Campbelltown, winning 20-19. The Raiders led 18-0 with just over 10 minutes remaining. The Tigers then scored three tries in the space of four minutes to level the match. A Luke Brooks field goal gave the home team the lead for the first time in the 76th minute. But a Jamal Fogarty penalty goal sealed it for the Raiders in the 78th minute. The Tigers were not amused, but there no real grounds for complaint.
The Tigers also made a late charge in the Round 23 match at Canberra Stadium. The Raiders led 22-12 at the 65 minute mark, but a converted try to Luke Brooks in the 70th minute saw the Tigers trail by just four. That's how it finished, 22-18.
The Raiders have won 12 of the 22 matches played against the Wests Tigers at Canberra Stadium - including the last three straight. The Raiders have also lost only two of the last eight played at the venue since 2014.
2022 Round 23: Raiders 22 defeated Tigers 18
2022 Round 14: Raiders 20 defeated Tigers 19
2022 Round 25: Raiders 56 defeated Tigers 10
2021 Round 1: Raiders 30 defeated Tigers 12
2020 Round 5: Raiders 14 defeated Tigers 5
Form: Raiders: WLLLW
Tigers: LLWLL
The Raiders finished 2023 on a three game losing streak, but produced a solid victory over the Knights in Round 1. The Tigers have not yet played in 2024, but they had a disastrous 2023 season. They won just four games and won only one of their past 13 matches. In the Preseason Challenge, the Tigers had a narrow win over the Warriors (18-16) in Christchurch, but fell to the Dragons (34-18) at Mudgee.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.44 favourites, with the Tigers paying $2.79. The Tigers have 6.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: After one round of the 2024 NRL Premiership, the Raiders sit in fourth place on the ladder - on points differential. Of course, it is difficult to take too much from early season numbers - but we have no numbers for the Tigers at all, as they are yet to play.
What can we learn from the 2023 statistics? The Tigers had a miserable year, finishing with the wooden spoon. The Raiders finished in the top eight, but in the bottom five teams in attack and defence. The Tigers were dead last in attack, while only the Bulldogs conceded more points. There are a few interesting wrinkles however. The Tigers averaged more running metres than the Raiders, More tackle breaks and offloads too. And that gives us a hint as to why the Raiders have tended to struggle with the Tigers' style of attack. And let's not forget that the Raiders also struggled when Tigers coach Benji Marshall was pulling the strings in attack on field. What surprises will he have this weekend?
2023 Season record: Raiders 13 and 12 (8th, -139), 5 and 6 at home
Tigers 4 and 20 (17th, -290), 1 and 11 away
Attack: Raiders 21 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 14th on average tries scored
Tigers 16 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 17th on average tries scored
Defence: Raiders 26 points conceded per match
Tigers 28 points conceded per match
Possession: Raiders 49 per cent, Tigers 50 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 77 per cent, Tigers 76 per cent
Running: Raiders 1588 running metres per match, ranked 15th
Tigers 1665 running metres per match, ranked 10th
Tackle breaks: Raiders 32, Tigers 34 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Tigers 4 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Tigers 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 10, Tigers 12 per match
Kicking: Raiders 583 kicking metres per match, ranked fifth
Tigers 516 kicking metres per match, ranked 17th
Missed tackles: Raiders 34, Tigers 33 per match
Ineffective tackles: Raiders 14, Tigers 12 per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Tigers 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Tigers 6 per match
My tip: The Raiders are deserved favourites in this game, despite missing a couple of key players due to injury and suspension. They had a strong start to the 2024 season against the Knights - and the Tigers will probably still be a bit rusty. The worries? The fact the Raiders struggle to contain the unpredictability of the Tigers' attack at times... and the poor home record last year at Canberra Stadium. But all things considered, the Raiders should be too strong. I'm not predicting a big margin. Not after one result and not this early in the season. Raiders by six.
Canberra Raiders
1. Jordan Rapana
2. Albert Hopoate
3. Matt Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Xavier Savage
6. Ethan Strange
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Danny Levi
10. Joe Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Zac Hosking
13. Morgan Smithies
14. Tom Starling
15. Emre Guler
16. Ata Mariota
17. Pasami Saulo
18. Nick Cotric
19. Kaeo Weekes
Injury/Suspension
Corey Horsburgh, Suspension (Round 3)
Elliott Whitehead, Calf (Round 4)
Corey Harawira-Naera, Seizure (TBA)
Wests Tigers
1. Jahream Bula
2. Charlie Staines
3. Starford To'a
4. Solomona Faataape
5. Junior Tupou
6. Lachlan Galvin
7. Jayden Sullivan
8. Stefano Utoikamanu
9. Apisai Koroisau
10. David Klemmer
11. Isaiah Papali'i
12. John Bateman
13. Alex Seyfarth
14. Aidan Sezer
15. Fonua Pole
16. Alex Twal
17. Samuela Fainu
18. Asu Kepaoa
22. Jake Simpkin
Injury/Suspension
Justin Olam, Knee (Round 3)
Latu Fainu, Hamstring (Round 4)
Adam Douehi, Knee (Indefinite)
Officials
Referee: Peter Gough
Touch judges: Wyatt Raymond, Paki Parkinson
Video referee: Ashley Klein
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLRaidersTigers
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