The Politics Thread 2024

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Azza
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Azza »

gangrenous wrote: October 16, 2024, 6:57 pm
Azza wrote:Albo will go down in our bottom 5 PM's, and we've had some stinkers recently.
What makes you say that?
A guy on the street told me to say it.
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gangrenous
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by gangrenous »

Probably not far from the truth
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Azza »

No sticking tongue out emoji?
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

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Azza
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Azza »

Thank you.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

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I don’t think it’s “about Israel” and I said in my last post on the subject that I think abortion will still carry the day for Harris (just).

But Israel is not helping them. The fact that a large proportion of the Arab American vote (who turned out for Biden in 2020) are going to just sit at home isn’t a helpful thing for the Democrats.

Having said all that, they three key items which are in the Democrats’ favour, which is abortion, Jan 6th and Project 2025 all still stand true today, albeit the last two seem to be less prevalent these days.

Just echoing what Scotty said though, I also keep getting this impending feeling of dread that Trump will win this thing, but then I try to remind myself of the “red wave” of 2022.

This is certainly the most intriguing and ever-changing American elections I’ve ever followed.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

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I honestly have no idea who will win, or no intuition. I suspect it's gonna end up in the courts like when George W was elected.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

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Or like when Trump won the last election, according to Trump and his unthinking minions.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Dr Zaius »

Podcast worth listening to is the current series of the "If you're listening" podcast - America's Last Election
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The Politics Thread 2024

Post by The Nickman »

Azza wrote:I honestly have no idea who will win, or no intuition. I suspect it's gonna end up in the courts like when George W was elected.
Interesting you mention that, because the guy dubbed the “Nostradamus of elections”, Allan Lichtman, has correctly predicted every election except one since 1984 and he picked Harris and picked her early.

The one election he got wrong… GW Bush in 2000.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Azza »

Well, it’s still highly debatable whether bush won Florida which was a key state in the election
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

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Azza wrote:Well, it’s still highly debatable whether bush won Florida which was a key state in the election
That’s kindof my point
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Azza »

The Nickman wrote: October 17, 2024, 8:14 pm
Azza wrote:Well, it’s still highly debatable whether bush won Florida which was a key state in the election
That’s kindof my point
What was your point sorry
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by The Nickman »

Exactly
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Off »

PNGRaider37 wrote:
The Nickman wrote: October 15, 2024, 9:25 am
Mickey_Raider wrote: October 15, 2024, 8:38 am In todays update on Netanyahus righteous, proportionate and legal war against the baddies, Israel is now bombíng women, children and civilians sheltering in tents outside of a hospital in Gaza, burning them alive.

They are burning children alive.
Yeah, but those children are terrorists, Mickey.

I'm not sure how you don't understand this.
Terrible. If only H@mas would surrender. Coward terrorists till the end.
Another win to the Good guys overnightImage

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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Mickey_Raider »

Q: wails about childcare subsidies, cheers on the slaughter of children.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by gangrenous »

I am thinking that the poll shifts have more to do with weight of money than true shifts lately. Wouldn’t surprise me if there was a concerted effort to shift public expectation of who is winning by stacking some large bets on Trump.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Mickey_Raider »

Sportsbet odds right now have Peter Dutton with better odds of being Prime Minister in a few months than Kamala Harris being President.

Those odds simply don’t correspond with reality.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

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gangrenous wrote: October 18, 2024, 9:13 pm I am thinking that the poll shifts have more to do with weight of money than true shifts lately. Wouldn’t surprise me if there was a concerted effort to shift public expectation of who is winning by stacking some large bets on Trump.
Gambling books aim to balance the odds to encourage action on both sides, ideally they want to hold the same money on both sides of a bet so they dont win or lose and collect on the vig (i.e you bet $100 on $1.90 on Trump and $100 on $1.90 on Harris... they'll take $200, pay out $190 and collect the $10)

So yeah, markets are set and adjusted based on new information but the flucuations day to day when largely nothing has changed is a result of markets adjusting based on the weight of money held. Balancing the market to encourage equal share
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The Politics Thread 2024

Post by gangrenous »

Yeah, that’s what I said

Well, not what I said, but the principles behind it.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

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This US election certainly is intriguing.

For me it's largely about which side can motivate the most people to get off their **** and vote. As we know, only 2/3 of eligible US voters have turned out in the last 3 elections.

Trump has a very motivated base. The fact 63 and 74 million people in the last two elections voted for him astounds me, but that's no fluke.

The key for the Dems is to motivate the marginalised and disaffected voters to turn up. The way the Middle East conflict has been handled by the Democrats hasn't helped.

It will be what it will be. Unfortunately a large percentage of the US electorate are still fundamentally racist and ignorant, and they all get a vote.


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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

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Seiffert82 wrote:This US election certainly is intriguing.

For me it's largely about which side can motivate the most people to get off their **** and vote. As we know, only 2/3 of eligible US voters have turned out in the last 3 elections.

Trump has a very motivated base. The fact 63 and 74 million people in the last two elections voted for him astounds me, but that's no fluke.

The key for the Dems is to motivate the marginalised and disaffected voters to turn up. The way the Middle East conflict has been handled by the Democrats hasn't helped.

It will be what it will be. Unfortunately a large percentage of the US electorate are still fundamentally racist and ignorant, and they all get a vote.
It stuns me that anyone could stay home at this election. Wouldn't you look at him and think "anyone but that guy"? I'd vote for an inanimate rod over him.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by gangrenous »

In rod we trust.

But yeah. Boggles the mind that anyone could stay home, let alone vote for the bastard
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Azza »

Personally I'd only vote for the rod if it was carbon, but that's just me. Otherwise I'd probably go Trump.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Mickey_Raider »

Dr Zaius wrote: October 19, 2024, 8:00 am
Seiffert82 wrote:This US election certainly is intriguing.

For me it's largely about which side can motivate the most people to get off their **** and vote. As we know, only 2/3 of eligible US voters have turned out in the last 3 elections.

Trump has a very motivated base. The fact 63 and 74 million people in the last two elections voted for him astounds me, but that's no fluke.

The key for the Dems is to motivate the marginalised and disaffected voters to turn up. The way the Middle East conflict has been handled by the Democrats hasn't helped.

It will be what it will be. Unfortunately a large percentage of the US electorate are still fundamentally racist and ignorant, and they all get a vote.
It stuns me that anyone could stay home at this election. Wouldn't you look at him and think "anyone but that guy"? I'd vote for an inanimate rod over him.
Lots of the analysis is about how Arab voters in Michigan will stay home because they are unhappy with Biden/Harris being too pro-Israel.

No idea how you could reason that staying home and handing the Presidency to a dude who will obviously be far more pro-Israel will help your cause but anyway.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Dr Zaius »

We couldn't make it carbon.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Azza »

Dr Zaius wrote: October 19, 2024, 10:09 am We couldn't make it carbon.
Then MAGA
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Dr Zaius »

Azza wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: October 19, 2024, 10:09 am We couldn't make it carbon.
Then MAGA
MACA
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

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Botman wrote:
gangrenous wrote: October 18, 2024, 9:13 pm I am thinking that the poll shifts have more to do with weight of money than true shifts lately. Wouldn’t surprise me if there was a concerted effort to shift public expectation of who is winning by stacking some large bets on Trump.
Gambling books aim to balance the odds to encourage action on both sides, ideally they want to hold the same money on both sides of a bet so they dont win or lose and collect on the vig (i.e you bet $100 on $1.90 on Trump and $100 on $1.90 on Harris... they'll take $200, pay out $190 and collect the $10)

So yeah, markets are set and adjusted based on new information but the flucuations day to day when largely nothing has changed is a result of markets adjusting based on the weight of money held. Balancing the market to encourage equal share
That’s not what I’ve heard. I know from very good authority from a mate who works for TAB that it can all just come down to some guy at Sportsbet who just doesn’t like Kamala Harris.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Azza »

Dr Zaius wrote: October 19, 2024, 10:44 am
Azza wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: October 19, 2024, 10:09 am We couldn't make it carbon.
Then MAGA
MACA
It’s already crap
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by The Nickman »

Azza wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: October 19, 2024, 10:44 am
Azza wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: October 19, 2024, 10:09 am We couldn't make it carbon.
Then MAGA
MACA
It’s already crap
MAMCT
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Botman »

The Nickman wrote: October 19, 2024, 11:21 am
Botman wrote:
gangrenous wrote: October 18, 2024, 9:13 pm I am thinking that the poll shifts have more to do with weight of money than true shifts lately. Wouldn’t surprise me if there was a concerted effort to shift public expectation of who is winning by stacking some large bets on Trump.
Gambling books aim to balance the odds to encourage action on both sides, ideally they want to hold the same money on both sides of a bet so they dont win or lose and collect on the vig (i.e you bet $100 on $1.90 on Trump and $100 on $1.90 on Harris... they'll take $200, pay out $190 and collect the $10)

So yeah, markets are set and adjusted based on new information but the flucuations day to day when largely nothing has changed is a result of markets adjusting based on the weight of money held. Balancing the market to encourage equal share
That’s not what I’ve heard. I know from very good authority from a mate who works for TAB that it can all just come down to some guy at Sportsbet who just doesn’t like Kamala Harris.
:roflmao
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

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Dr Zaius wrote:
Seiffert82 wrote:This US election certainly is intriguing.

For me it's largely about which side can motivate the most people to get off their **** and vote. As we know, only 2/3 of eligible US voters have turned out in the last 3 elections.

Trump has a very motivated base. The fact 63 and 74 million people in the last two elections voted for him astounds me, but that's no fluke.

The key for the Dems is to motivate the marginalised and disaffected voters to turn up. The way the Middle East conflict has been handled by the Democrats hasn't helped.

It will be what it will be. Unfortunately a large percentage of the US electorate are still fundamentally racist and ignorant, and they all get a vote.
It stuns me that anyone could stay home at this election. Wouldn't you look at him and think "anyone but that guy"? I'd vote for an inanimate rod over him.
You can't rationalise it Doc.

There are clearly whole swathes of the US who feel disaffected and yearn for life as it was in the 60s to 80s. They don't particularly want progress or reconciliation, they couldn't give a crap about international relations. They want life to be as it was when the working white people all had jobs.

It's a funny place. Each corner of the country may as well be a different planet and those attitudes are rusted on. You can really appreciate how there is only a handful of states that ultimately dictate who wins the presidency.

Crazy times indeed.

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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

Post by Azza »

Yeah the word "United" is very ironic because it is anything but.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2024

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Off wrote: October 18, 2024, 9:23 am
PNGRaider37 wrote:
The Nickman wrote: October 15, 2024, 9:25 am
Mickey_Raider wrote: October 15, 2024, 8:38 am In todays update on Netanyahus righteous, proportionate and legal war against the baddies, Israel is now bombíng women, children and civilians sheltering in tents outside of a hospital in Gaza, burning them alive.

They are burning children alive.
Yeah, but those children are terrorists, Mickey.

I'm not sure how you don't understand this.
Terrible. If only H@mas would surrender. Coward terrorists till the end.
Another win to the Good guys overnightImage

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Love to see it. One less high ranking coward. You'd think give up now but it looks Like theyll continue to use innocent people as human shields. Hopefully the good guys take out every last one of those terrorists.
Life's tough, get a helmet :roflmao
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