2023 Finals Week 1 v Knights: Game Day

[greeneyed]

2023 Finals Week 1 v Knights: Game Day



Canberra Raiders v Newcastle Knights
Sunday 10 September, 4:05pm
Hunter Stadium
Gates open: 2:00pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Sunny. The chance of morning frost. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 5 per cent Min 5 Max 21

The NRL finals are here. And the Canberra Raiders are heading to the Hunter for their Week 1 Finals clash with the surging Newcastle Knights - a team on a club record, nine game winning streak.

Last round: 2023 Round 27. Cronulla Sharks 24 - Canberra Raiders 6. The Raiders were right in the dog fight, right in the grind for 60 minutes. And then winger, Sebastian Kris was sent from the field for an old fashioned spear tackle. The Sharks had already lifted the tempo by the time of the incident. They had just taken a 10-6 lead. And they went right on with it in the final 20 minutes. With a man down, the Raiders' defensive line could not cope.



More on Round 27: As I saw it

Team news: Raiders back Sebastian Kris has been banned for five weeks for a dangerous throw - adding to the Green Machine's already significant injury/suspension list. James Schiller replaces Kris on the wing. Ricky Stuart has stuck with Jack Wighton at centre and Matt Frawley at five eighth.

Kalyn Ponga (shoulder), Jackson Hastings (ankle), Lachlan Fitzgibbon (shoulder) and Kurt Mann (sternum) all return from injury for the Knights. Dane Gagai, Phoenix Crossland and Tyson Frizell also return after being rested in Round 27. Forward Adam Elliott has escaped with a $3,000 fine for a careless high tackle in the match against the Dragons.

Late changes: Both the Raiders and Knights left their top 17 unchanged on Saturday afternoon. The Raiders have left Jarrod Croker and Albert Hopoate on their extended bench, while the Knights have Adam Clune and Dylan Lucas on their reserves list.

History: Canberra has had a fairly good record against Newcastle, winning 29 of 56 games, with two draws. But the Knights have been more than an irritant lately. The Raiders have won only two of the past seven matches between the clubs.

In Round 15 at Canberra Stadium last year, the Raiders led 14-0 after 25 minutes, before the Knights staged a comeback. An Edrick Lee try in the 65th minute saw the visitors go to an 18-14 lead. Hudson Young saved the day, scoring a try with just two minutes remaining - and the conversion from Jamal Fogarty sealed the 20-18 win. In Round 23 in Newcastle, the Raiders trailed 22-8 at half time, before making a second half comeback - winning 28-22. Earlier this year, in Round 4, the Raiders produced a disappointing performance against the Knights at Hunter Stadium - losing 24-14. Canberra was even more disappointing in Round 22 - a 28-6 loss at home.

The Green Machine has posted nine wins from the 25 played between these two clubs at Hunter Stadium. The Raiders have won twice and drawn once in the past five matches at the venue.


2023 Round 22: Knights 28 defeated Raiders 6


2023 Round 4: Knights 24 defeated Raiders 14


2022 Round 23: Raiders 28 defeated Knights 22


2022 Round 15: Raiders 20 defeated Knights 18


2021 Round 20: Knights 34 defeated Raiders 24

Form: Raiders: WLWLL
Knights: WWWWW

The Knights are on a nine game winning streak, a run that includes wins over the Storm (26-18), Raiders (28-6), Sharks (32-6). They are coming off a 32-12 win over the Dragons. The Raiders have limped into the finals, losing to the Storm (48-2), Broncos (29-18) and Sharks (24-6) in their past five.

Betting: The Knights are $1.19 favourites, with the Raiders paying $4.75. The Raiders have 13.5 points start in the line betting. The Raiders' odds have drifted over the week.

Stat attack: This is a clash between fifth (Knights) and eighth (Raiders) on the ladder. There is, however, a much bigger difference between the teams in most statistical categories.

The Knights have finished the season as the No. 1 rated team in attack - based on tries scored. Who'd have thought? Sure, a 66-0, 11 try win over the Bulldogs helped. But they have scored a total of 114 tries, more than the Broncos (112), Panthers (110) and Storm (109). They rank fourth for total points, because they have the worst conversion percentage in the NRL (Raiders the best).

The Knights also rank first in the competition for line breaks (Raiders 15th) and tackle breaks (Raiders 13th), fourth for try assists (Raiders 16th) and sixth for run metres (Raiders 16th).



The Knights players the Raiders must watch? Kalyn Ponga and Jackson Hastings of course. Then there's winger Dominic Young, who ranks second in the NRL for most tries (23) and first for line breaks (31). Greg Marzhew (172) is first in the competition for tackle breaks, Dane Gagai (137) third. Marzhew is fifth for running metres and post contact metres.

The Newcastle defence is surprisingly good too. They are fourth for fewest tries conceded (Raiders 13th), ahead of even the Melbourne Storm. The Knights are fourth for both fewest missed tackles and ineffective tackles.

The Raiders have some discipline issues. They are in the top four teams for penalties conceded, while only the Eels have conceded fewer penalties than the Knights.

2023 Season record: Raiders 13 and 11 (8th, -137), 6 and 6 away
Knights 14 and 9, 1 draw (5th, +175), 9 and 3 at home

Attack: Raiders 20 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 15th on average tries scored
Knights 26 points and 5 tries scored per match, ranked 1st on average tries scored

Defence: Raiders 26 points and 5 tries conceded per match, ranked 13th for fewest average tries conceded
Knights 19 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 4th for fewest average tries conceded.

Possession: Raiders 49 per cent, Knights 51 per cent

Completion rate: Raiders 76 per cent, Knights 76 per cent

Running: Raiders 1569 running metres per match
Knights 1736 running metres per match

Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Knights 43 per match

Line breaks: Raiders 4, Knights 6 per match

Try assists: Raiders 3, Knights 4 per match

Offloads: Raiders 10, Knights 8 per match

Kicking: Raiders 580 kicking metres per match
Knights 564 kicking metres per match

Missed tackles: Raiders 34, Knights 32 per match

Ineffective tackles: Raiders 15, Knights 14 per match

Tackle efficiency: Raiders 88 per cent, Knights 88 per cent

Errors: Raiders 11, Knights 11 per match

Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Knights 5 per match

Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Knights 6 per match

My tip: The Knights are deserved hot favourites in this match. I'm not in the camp of those who say the Raiders' negative points differential doesn't matter. In a way it is correct that its immaterial. The finals are the start of a new competition. Make the finals and anything can happen. But the negative points differential highlights the fact that the Raiders have had deficiencies in both their attack and defence over the year. And recent matches don't provide much evidence that they've been overcome. The disparity in the statistics between these two teams are a bit scary. Not the number of wins, sure, but most of it is scary. Then there's the list of Canberra players who will be on the sidelines.

The head says this should be a win for the Knights by 13+. My hope is that the sort of tactics that the Raiders employed against the Sharks - strong defence, kick often, kick long or high - is enough to upset the Newcastle apple cart. It's possible, as the Knights have not had the toughest draw in their run of nine wins. If they can do it, there'd probably be a only a couple of points in it.

Canberra Raiders

1. Jordan Rapana
2. James Schiller
3. Jack Wighton
4. Matt Timoko
5. Nick Cotric
6. Matt Frawley
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Ata Mariota
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joe Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead (c)
13. Hohepa Puru

14. Tom Starling
15. Emre Guler
16. Pasami Saulo
17. Trey Mooney

18. Jarrod Croker (c)
19. Albert Hopoate

Injuries/Suspension
Corey Horsburgh, Suspended (Grand Final)
Sebastian Kris, Suspended (Season)
Corey Harawira-Naera, Seizure (Season)
Josh Papalii, Biceps (Season)
Elijah Anderson, Knee (Season)
Jordan Martin, Knee (Season)

Newcastle Knights

1. Kalyn Ponga (c)
2. Dominic Young
3. Dane Gagai
4. Bradman Best
5. Greg Marzhew
6. Tyson Gamble
7. Jackson Hastings
8. Jacob Saifiti
9. Phoenix Crossland
10. Leo Thompson
11. Tyson Frizell
12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon
13. Adam Elliott

14. Kurt Mann
15. Daniel Saifiti
16. Jack Hetherington
17. Mathew Croker

18. Adam Clune
20. Dylan Lucas

Injury/Suspension
Krystian Mapapalangi, Shoulder (Season)
Bailey Hodgson, Shoulder (Season)
Jayden Brailey, Knee (Season)

Officials

Referee: Ashley Klein
Touch judges: Liam Kennedy, Jon Stone
Video referee: Adam Gee

Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLKnightsRaiders

NRLW teams: Click here
NSW Cup teams: Click here



Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders

[greeneyed]

[Billy Walker]

Game day haha

[-PJ-]

Looking forward to a win.

[Chicka Chicka Chicka]

And so it begins

[Kryptonite]

Game day you gluttons for punishment!
Caaaarrrrrrn Raiders!!!!!!


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[Ilanraiders]

Game Day!! Go the Raiders!!

[Mullins_y2k]

I know we have enough negative nellys here but... have you ever been less excited for a Raiders finals match?
No doubt we'll play well for the first 20min, give us all hope and then rip our hearts out for 60min straight! haha

Game on!

[RedRaider]

Sure the Knights scored 140 more points than us during the season. Sure they had 172 fewer points scored against them during the season. We are now into the finals playing in the same match. What happened over the season means squat compared to what happens today.
The loss of Papa due to injury is the biggest 'out' imo. His ability to give us yards into the teeth of defensive lines is tough to replace.
I'm hoping to see Puru get more minutes in this match. His mobility and ability on both sides of the ball in the middle will be vital I reckon.
But above all else, we have to go far better in the defensive line and not give up meters easily and miss tackles close to the line. Madge??
C'mon Raiders - you have the opportunity to build history from 8th position. Make it so.

[radicalraider]

Expect every call to go their way.
We need a miracle.
Lets pray.

[Billy Walker]

It doesn’t feel like game day until Finchy makes a weak gutted dog joke that everyone ignores. Or has he got the hint this week?

[Off]

This will be their most glorious moment.

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[Billy Walker]

This will be their most glorious moment.

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Knights or raiders, or refs or NRL?

[Off]

Knights and channel nine.

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[Finchy]

It doesn’t feel like game day until Finchy makes a weak gutted dog joke that everyone ignores. Or has he got the hint this week?

Game day you absolute bunch of nauseous navaled Norwegian Elkhounds!

Who’s ready to have their weekend ruined.... again. I know I am!

Season ends today.

[Dusty]

18. Croker in for 6. Frawley

3. Wighton to 6 and Toots to 3


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[Jonalanat]

If Ponga gets injured in the first 10 mins and knights go to water under pressure of favouritism and finals football, raiders can grind them down to their level of incompetence and defeat them if they bleed green enough and really hurt inside doing so

[Finchy]

If Ponga gets injured in the first 10 mins and knights go to water under pressure of favouritism and finals football, raiders can grind them down to their level of incompetence and defeat them if they bleed green enough and really hurt inside doing so

Don’t forget we also need a bit of luck and the bounce of the ball!

Shove it in our faces Rick! Shove like you’ve never shoved before!

[Regs Revolution]

This will be their most glorious moment.

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Hardly glorious beating us the way we’ve been playing

[Regs Revolution]

It’s hard not to have a glimmer of hope today. You just never know. Frawley and Fog need to have massive games. It’s all on them. They need to step up and control the game.

[radicalraider]

Bomb it to ponga and deck him from every angle when he lands.

[mikeraider]

Game Day, let's show the knights we deserve to be here in the finals, PLEASE.

[Scared Hitless]

I know we have enough negative nellys here but... have you ever been less excited for a Raiders finals match?
No doubt we'll play well for the first 20min, give us all hope and then rip our hearts out for 60min straight! haha

Game on!

20mins would be terrific! That is more than enough time for Ponga to have begun shredding us and Best to look like prime Meninga.

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[Finchy]

I reckon we’re the worst team to make the finals since 2002 or 2022 Raiders.

[mick63]

Third time against the knights this year.
Reckon the coach has plenty of tape on them.
Let’s hope he’s learned something.

[radicalraider]

Croker in wighton to 6 is getting louder

[Bigcheese]

I reckon we’re the worst team to make the finals since 2002 or 2022 Raiders.

Love your positivity, why not tell us again how terrible we are, it didn’t sink in the first thousand times.

[Finchy]

Croker in wighton to 6 is getting louder

Neither Frawley or Croker can defend. Might as well give Croker 1 last game rather than 3 mins off the bench being his last game in green. Wighton needs to get his hands on the ball more if we’re any chance today. Even then we’ll be lucky to score 1-2 tries

[Finchy]

I reckon we’re the worst team to make the finals since 2002 or 2022 Raiders.

Love your positivity, why not tell us again how terrible we are, it didn’t sink in the first thousand times.

Hey Bigcheese, we’re terrible.

[Bigcheese]

I reckon we’re the worst team to make the finals since 2002 or 2022 Raiders.

Love your positivity, why not tell us again how terrible we are, it didn’t sink in the first thousand times.

Hey Bigcheese, we’re terrible.

I’ve finally got it, thanks for the help. Now I’ll join you and the others who are hoping we get flogged and sit on here all day every day moaning about how crap we are.

[Finchy]

I reckon we’re the worst team to make the finals since 2002 or 2022 Raiders.

Love your positivity, why not tell us again how terrible we are, it didn’t sink in the first thousand times.

Hey Bigcheese, we’re terrible.

I’ve finally got it, thanks for the help. Now I’ll join you and the others who are hoping we get flogged and sit on here all day every day moaning about how crap we are.

I don’t hope we get flogged. We should, but I don’t enjoy seeing it. Which is why I’m always moaning about how crap we are. I’d love nothing more than to have my face shoved in it. Hard.

[LimeGreenMachine]

As far as team combinations go Jack should go to 5/8 and Croker come in .
Left edge is horrible but goes to another level of horrible with Frawley on that side.

[The Nickman]

I’d honestly be happy with Croker coming in and Jack moving back to 6

Our only chance of winning is good games from Jack and Fogarty, will it happen? Probably not

But it’s our only chance so might as well roll the dice

[gerg]

I’ve got a really good feeling about this game.

By ‘good’ I mean ‘bad’ and by ‘feeling’ I mean ‘numb’.

I’m sure we’ll give it a redhot go though. Hopefully.

[Mickey_Raider]

I think the only way a miracle happens today is if we get out to an early lead and the pressure gets to the Knights.

If the Knights have a fast start it will be game over mentally and they could run up the cricket score which form dictates they should.

I don’t even think it will suffice to keep it tight for most of the game a la the Sharks game last weekend.

We need that early lead.