Canberra Raiders v Melbourne Storm
Sunday 13 August, 2:00pm
Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Gates open: 12:30pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502, Kayo
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Cloudy. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 30 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm Min 7 Max 13
The Raiders head to their "other home ground", Melbourne Rectangular, for a clash with the Storm in Round 24. Canberra has a great recent record in Bleak City, but can they keep the streak going?
Last round: Canberra Raiders 22 - Wests Tigers 18. It was much closer than it should have been. The Tigers are in last place on the competition ladder, having won only three matches all year. The Raiders have a win rate which belies their attacking and defensive records. But they have still won 12 matches and coming into this game, were placed fifth. The Raiders had much more on the line. Still, the Tigers can be a very dangerous team. In addition, the Raiders faced a good deal of disruption during the match. With the Tigers surging in the final stages, it was impressive to see the depleted team step up and hold on for a victory.
More on Round 23: As I saw it
Team news: The Raiders have lost Sebastian Kris for 3-4 weeks with a hamstring injury, leaving a vacancy at left centre. Under 19s Origin star Ethan Strange will take his place - and make his NRL debut.
Melbourne half Jahrome Hughes (ankle) returns, meaning Jonah Pezet drops to the reserves list. Xavier Coates (hip) is also back on the wing, replacing George Jenning, who is out with an MCL. Bronson Garlick has been added to the bench.
Late changes: Both teams left their starting teams unchanged, when reducing their squads on Saturday afternoon.
History: The Raiders have won only 16 of 52 matches against the Melbourne Storm, for a meagre 31 per cent win rate. The Raiders broke a five game losing streak against Melbourne with a memorable 22-18 victory in the southern capital in Round 22 in 2019. The Raiders had two players sin binned in the first half and trailed 18-0, before scoring 22 unanswered points. It was the Storm's worst ever collapse. Canberra followed up with another stunning, 12-10, victory in Week 1 of the 2019 finals - with a John Bateman try in the final stages delivering a match winning lead. They produced their third straight win against Melbourne in Round 3 of 2020. But the Storm then went on another five game winning streak against Canberra, including the 2020 Preliminary Final.
The Raiders ended that streak in Round 18 last year, winning 20-16 in Melbourne. And then, they produced a memorable, 28-20 victory in Week 1 of the finals - again in Melbourne. Who can forget Matt Timoko fending Cameron Munster away before charging over the try line?
2022 Finals Week 1 - Raiders 28 defeated Storm 20
2022 Round 18 - Raiders 20 defeated Storm 16
2022 Round 5 - Storm 30 defeated Raiders 16
2021 Round 22 Storm 26 defeated Raiders 16
2021 Round 11 - Storm 34 defeated Raiders 10
The Raiders have won eight of the 13 games played between the clubs at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, including the last five.
Form: Raiders: WWLLW
Storm: LWLWL
Melbourne has an un-Storm like form line. They have fallen to the Panthers twice in their past five games. They lost 34-16 to Penrith at Docklands in Round 18. Last Friday night, they went to Penrith and lost 26-6. They also have a recent loss to the Knights (26-18). Their two recent wins have come against the Roosters (30-16) and Eels (46-16).
After back to back losses against the Warriors (21-20) and Knights (28-6), Canberra got back onto the winners list against the Tigers last weekend.
Betting: The Storm is a $1.27 favourite, with the Raiders paying $3.80. The Raiders have 11.5 points start in the line betting. The odds for the Raiders have lengthened over the week.
Stat attack: This is a clash between fourth and fifth. Both teams have 12 wins and eight losses. But the Storm have a considerably better defensive record, and better attack as well.
Melbourne hooker Harry Grant ranks first in the NRL for dummy half runs and second for most tackles, behind Damien Cook. But he also ranks fifth for the most missed tackles. Grant and team mate Cameron Munster are in the top five most penalised players.
Storm forwards Josh King and Christian Welch run decoys all day. King ranks first in the NRL in that department, Welch third.
Jordan Rapana is two tries away from scoring 100 for the Green Machine.
2023 Season record: Raiders 12 and 8 (5th, -78), 6 and 4 away
Storm 12 and 8 (4th, +81), 7 and 3 at home
Attack: Raiders 21 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 14th on average tries scored
Storm 24 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 8th on average tries scored
Defence: Raiders 25 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 12th for fewest average tries conceded
Storm 20 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 4th for fewest average tries conceded.
Possession: Raiders 49 per cent, Storm 50 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 77 per cent, Storm 80 per cent
Running: Raiders 1597 running metres per match
Storm 1662 running metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Storm 33 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Storm 5 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Storm 3 per match
Offloads: Raiders 10, Storm 9 per match
Kicking: Raiders 584 kicking metres per match
Storm 583 kicking metres per match
Missed tackles: Raiders 33, Storm 35 per match
Ineffective tackles: Raiders 14, Storm 16 per match
Tackle efficiency: Raiders 88 per cent, Storm 87 per cent
Errors: Raiders 10, Storm 10 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Storm 6 per match
My tip: Melbourne is a clear favourite in this game - and when you look at the statistics, you can see why. Both teams have 12 wins, but just about all the other numbers show the Storm are on another level. Despite that, it is a match that the Raiders can win. They are a team that, for some reason, play to the level of their opponents. For games like this one, the Raiders lift their intensity. They love playing in Melbourne and have a great recent record at the Storm's home ground. So I think than the margin will be closer than the 10.5 points on offer with the bookmakers, at the least. The head says the Storm should win. My tip is Storm by six or less. But I've got the feeling this week. The Raiders just might get another famous win in Bleak City.
Canberra Raiders
1. Jordan Rapana
2. Albert Hopoate
3. Ethan Strange
4. Matt Timoko
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joe Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead (c)
13. Corey Horsburgh
14. Adrian Trevilyan
15. Emre Guler
16. Pasami Saulo
17. Ata Mariota
18. Brad Morkos
19. Matt Frawley
Injuries/Suspension
Xavier Savage, Hamstring (Round 26, earliest)
Sebastian Kris, Hamstring (Round 27-Finals)
Jarrod Croker, Hamstring (Indefinite)
Corey Harawira-Naera, Seizure (Indefinite)
Danny Levi, Jaw (Season)
Elijah Anderson, Knee (Season)
Jordan Martin, Knee (Season)
Melbourne Storm
1. Nick Meaney
2. William Warbrick
3. Marion Seve
4. Young Tonumaipea
5. Xavier Coates
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Tui Kamikamica
9. Harry Grant
10. Christian Welch
11. Trent Loiero
12. Tom Eisenhuth
13. Josh King
14. Bronson Garlick
15. Eliesa Katoa
16. Tepai Moeroa
17. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
18. Alec MacDonald
19. Reimis Smith
Injury/Suspension
George Jennings, Knee (TBA)
Aaron Pene, Ankle (TBA)
Dean Ieremia, Knee (Season)
Officials
Referee: Grant Atkins
Touch judges: Phil Henderson, David Munro
Video referee: Ben Cummins
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLStormRaiders
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