Run to the finals

[greeneyed]

NRL run home 2023: Where every club is set to finish

CANBERRA RAIDERS

Current position: 5th on 26 competition points (-55 points differential)

Crawley’s prediction: 8th (34 competition points)

Run home: bye, Warriors (a), Knights (h), Tigers (h), Storm (a), Bulldogs (h), Broncos (h), Sharks (a)

Verdict: Ricky Stuart’s Raiders are in charge of their own destiny and should finish comfortably in no worse than eighth spot providing they win the games expected of them against the Knights, Tigers and Bulldogs. But if you’ve watched the Raiders this year, you’ll know that comfortable is a word that does not sit well with any Raiders performance. Still, I have them finishing four points clear of ninth placed Parramatta who have an incredibly tough run. Jack Wighton’s pending departure will be a massive motivation.

Read more: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport ... 681ad299a0

[IBG]

You almost need to take 2 points off us considering how bad our F/A is.

Will definitely be playing finals just a matter of where.

[Seiffert82]

We really need to turn up for the Warriors game.

They are a very good team, but exactly the type of side we should be beating if we are even remotely in the hunt.

Entirely possible for us to beat both them and Melbourne IMO.

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[Finchy]

I concur we’ll only win 3/7 games, yet knowing us we’ll knock off the Sharks or Storm but lose to the Knights or Tigers.

34 points is a decent amount of points to only run 8th I feel. Our poor F/A will hurt us

[Seiffert82]

It's the Dogs and Newcastle games that give me the heebie jeebies.

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[Billy Walker]

We really need that 7 point game coming off the bye!

[pacman]

Crawley thinks we'll be 8th, Daley thinks we'll win the premiership.. I'm getting mixed signals!

[daley6]

We wont be beating knights and absolutely wont be beating the warriors, could well beat sharks and storm though

[Finchy]

Knights games frustrate me so much. I feel we’re so much better than them, and generally always finish much higher on the table than them, yet I feel every year for the past 8 or so years we either get our pants pulled down or manage to miraculously come back to just beat them. Just once I’d like us to take them seriously.

Bulldogs games also frustrate me, as again, we’re so much better than them and they haven’t played finals in about 7-8 years. And whilst we usually manage to beat them (unlike Knights games) it’s usually a pathetic 12-10 win or some dross. We should be spanking those teams, yet never manage to.

[-PJ-]

We need to be better at home.

Knights, Tigers and Bulldogs are must wins.

Oh I forgot..we’ve got Storm in Melbourne, there’s 2pts.

And remember the last time Crapnulla beat us Tony Abbott was PM.

[Lui_Bon]

I like Crawley saying "if you’ve watched the Raiders this year".... because it doesn't seem like anyone who's actually watched ever mentions them in the media.

Des Hasler would kill to be this far under the radar.

[PerthRaider86]

#nevercomfortable
#neverconfident

[Crusader]

We wont be beating knights and absolutely wont be beating the warriors, could well beat sharks and storm though

we will beat the warriors

[gangrenous]

The Warriors is really a 13 point game. If we win that then I think there’s going to be a lot of belief that a top 4 spot is on offer.

It would likely put a 4 point gap back to 6th, and with 6 rounds left that’d go pretty close to securing top 5 bar a heavily failed run home.

[-TW-]

We should win 5/7 if we're serious, which 5.. who knows

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[LimeGreenMachine]

Cant believe the season is almost done. The year has flown.

Doesn't matter how you win , it still equals 2 points.

[RedRaider]

Cant believe the season is almost done. The year has flown.

Doesn't matter how you win , it still equals 2 points.

Agree with that LGM. Particularly after all those years where we would snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. We are a fair way from where I'd like to see us defensively. Of the Top 10 sides, which I think are realistically a chance of being in the 8, we have had more points scored against us at 431, than any of the other sides. Coming into Round 20 our attack has a total of 376 points which is ahead of the Storm and only 16 behind a feted attacking team like the Broncos (less that one point per match).

In our run home we play 7 matches, of which 4 are against other Top 8 sides. There is also the Knights who we seem to struggle against. I'm glad we are playing other Top 8 sides leading into the finals. It will set a standard for areas of improvement. Imo that improvement area is when we don't have the ball.

Run home: bye, Warriors (a), Knights (h), Tigers (h), Storm (a), Bulldogs (h), Broncos (h), Sharks (a)

[Mr Squiggle]

Cant believe the season is almost done. The year has flown.

Doesn't matter how you win , it still equals 2 points.

Of course it matters how you win. Points differential isn't just a metric for sorting out ladder positions. It's a critical indicator of performance and on that metric we're bottom four.

[Finchy]

The last round game against the Sharks will be interesting. As has happened before, if ladder positions can’t change, both teams may rest their best players for the finals. For the Sharks that would obviously include resting Hynes.

If we manage to beat them it will be 10 straight wins over the Sharks, which I think would be a club record streak over any other club in our history.

[Mickey_Raider]

Of course it matters how you win.

If we were scrapping out ugly wins against poor or middling sides on a background of gritty defence, you might be a little bit more optimistic that such ugliness might be transferable to the finals.

And you could probably be reasonably more optimistic that such gritty defence could be transferable to being competitive against better sides in the finals.

But on current evidence I see very little to demonstrate that our play will be transferable to success in the finals.

Our defence isn’t showing much starch, and consistently blowing big leads against poorer sides is not the sort of form line that you’d think would hold us in good stead to beat the likes of Penrith etc in the finals.

[Finchy]

Yeah the whole “doesn’t matter how you win” idea is fallacious. Yeah the 2 points might get you a good ladder position at the end of the year (likely impacted by a terrible F/A), but it means nothing come finals time.

Look at the Sharks and Cowboys last year. They had a dream draw, finished 2nd and 3rd. Sharks didn’t beat a top 8 team all year but beat enough lower ranked sides to finish 2nd. Then they went out in straight sets.

Cowboys basically never left QLD all year and were also off the pace come finals time. The big issue for both teams were defence related.

Even if we somehow manage to get a top 4 spot, our terrible defence and bog average attack will have us as cannon fodder come finals time.

[Riaan]

Cant believe the season is almost done. The year has flown.

Doesn't matter how you win , it still equals 2 points.

Never a truer word spoken.

[BadnMean]

We've got the next month with a mix of tough games and on paper easier games to get some things fixed and fine tuned or make some tough calls on just who is the best squad.

Then we'll have the Dogs game to bed that down before two games that really tell us whether we are contenders or not and get in finals shape.

It's been an odd year. Won plenty of games but without playing particularly well or more frustratingly, without ever seeming to improve on the same poor areas. Most games we've played one enjoyable half of footy before a fairly lacklustre one. Things haven't quite clicked imo but there's always hope.

Odd situation where we are travelling ok points wise and can beat some good teams. And still a but short of the very best... BUT... I think we have more improvement in the squad and play than the other teams do. If we can pull the right strings to unlock it.

[gerg]

I like how you’ve touched on our inconsistency there BnM. In the past two seasons we’ve seen that Ricky can lift the team pretty well for a finals game, but then the following week has been a big thud back to earth. It feels like that is going to happen again this year. A decent performance in the first finals game and then a walloping in the second week. Luck of the draw will play a part. If we come up against a team on a roll in week one we could be in trouble. Cowboys and Eels have clicked and I suspect Bunnies will bounce back with Latrell returning.

As always, with Origin over the season gets interesting.

[Brew]

We’re in the hunt


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[Raider of d Lost Ark]

We've got the next month with a mix of tough games and on paper easier games to get some things fixed and fine tuned or make some tough calls on just who is the best squad.

Then we'll have the Dogs game to bed that down before two games that really tell us whether we are contenders or not and get in finals shape.

It's been an odd year. Won plenty of games but without playing particularly well or more frustratingly, without ever seeming to improve on the same poor areas. Most games we've played one enjoyable half of footy before a fairly lacklustre one. Things haven't quite clicked imo but there's always hope.

Odd situation where we are travelling ok points wise and can beat some good teams. And still a but short of the very best... BUT... I think we have more improvement in the squad and play than the other teams do. If we can pull the right strings to unlock it.

Normally don’t like listening to Phil Gould but last Friday against the Dragons he said, imagine if the Raiders put together an 80 minute performance????

It would be a nice treat, hopefully we have a few games like that in the back end of the year

[RedRaider]

Of course it matters how you win.

If we were scrapping out ugly wins against poor or middling sides on a background of gritty defence, you might be a little bit more optimistic that such ugliness might be transferable to the finals.

And you could probably be reasonably more optimistic that such gritty defence could be transferable to being competitive against better sides in the finals.

But on current evidence I see very little to demonstrate that our play will be transferable to success in the finals.

Our defence isn’t showing much starch, and consistently blowing big leads against poorer sides is not the sort of form line that you’d think would hold us in good stead to beat the likes of Penrith etc in the finals.

In July of any season I don't agree Mickey. I am happy to get the 2 points necessary to make the finals. I well remember 2017 when we had the third best points scored in the Comp and 2018 when we had the second best points scored in the comp and in NEITHER year did we make the finals. We were wonderful with the ball, spectacular to watch, but only got to look on when the finals came around.

We need to fix our defensive issues. Part of that is for the Coach to make the tough decision on a revered player who time has caught up with. Against the Dragons JC looked lost. Sticky had to move Jack from the pack to 5/8 and Rapa over onto the left wing to shore up that side. Some will point to Frawley and he must take a part of the blame but it was the 300 gamer who looked lost and missed more tackles than Frawley. The Warriors will target JC they'd be crazy not to. A shame X is injured. The solidly built Lebanon International Brad Morkos now 20 should be in the mix. Interesting that Cotric is selected at FB in NSW Cup.

[bayraider]

Its just bloody nice to be not relying on other teams to be loosing or winning games for us at this time of the year, praying we win our games to even be a chance just to make the 8

[Riaan]

Of course it matters how you win.

If we were scrapping out ugly wins against poor or middling sides on a background of gritty defence, you might be a little bit more optimistic that such ugliness might be transferable to the finals.

And you could probably be reasonably more optimistic that such gritty defence could be transferable to being competitive against better sides in the finals.

But on current evidence I see very little to demonstrate that our play will be transferable to success in the finals.

Our defence isn’t showing much starch, and consistently blowing big leads against poorer sides is not the sort of form line that you’d think would hold us in good stead to beat the likes of Penrith etc in the finals.

In July of any season I don't agree Mickey. I am happy to get the 2 points necessary to make the finals. I well remember 2017 when we had the third best points scored in the Comp and 2018 when we had the second best points scored in the comp and in NEITHER year did we make the finals. We were wonderful with the ball, spectacular to watch, but only got to look on when the finals came around.

We need to fix our defensive issues. Part of that is for the Coach to make the tough decision on a revered player who time has caught up with. Against the Dragons JC looked lost. Sticky had to move Jack from the pack to 5/8 and Rapa over onto the left wing to shore up that side. Some will point to Frawley and he must take a part of the blame but it was the 300 gamer who looked lost and missed more tackles than Frawley. The Warriors will target JC they'd be crazy not to. A shame X is injured. The solidly built Lebanon International Brad Morkos now 20 should be in the mix. Interesting that Cotric is selected at FB in NSW Cup.

Moving Wighton out of 5/8 and into the pack was a boneheaded move. Especially when all we replacing him with is Matt Frawley. Wighton, while out of form in attack, baby sits Croker in defence. Which is where we got badly exposed by the Dragons. Hoppa was awful as well, some really poor decisions defence and rushing in from the wing, Cotric needs to be back on the wing asap.

[Hong Kong Raider]

Still time to get it right. I recall in 2016 we were only considered a premiership threat when we beat Cronulla (who were leading the comp at the time) and Melbourne in successive weeks but we were leaking points to the likes of the last placed Newcastle and barely beat them.

We need the best available players in our team now and that means abandoning sentiment and past achievements. That starts with Croker to NSW Cup (great career and even better person) and Kris back to the centres if Savage is available, or Kris stays at FB with someone like Morkos in the centres. Big no to HSS - he can still be a FG footballer but needs time - look at Horse coming back from a long term injury. Cotric has to come in for Hoppa - the left edge is too slow and a liability. Whitehead limited to 40 mins as well. When is CHN back ? I'm excited to see Ata and Mooney in our line up as well.

Pls Stuart do not waste this opportunity. Let's surprise everyone.

[Canberra Milk]

We will finish 8th or 9th and go out with a whimper... or worse, get hammered. Don't kid yourselves

And again, that's not a bad achievement given our roster

[Hong Kong Raider]

We will finish 8th or 9th and go out with a whimper... or worse, get hammered. Don't kid yourselves

And again, that's not a bad achievement given our roster

If we continue giving other teams four targets to aim at in defence in Croker, Hoppa, Whitehead and Kris with kicks and his positioning then yes we have no chance.

If we inject Savage back then we improve by 10 points at least in attack. Not that he scores 10 but he creates opportunities and doubt with his speed.

[Finchy]

We will finish 8th or 9th and go out with a whimper... or worse, get hammered. Don't kid yourselves

And again, that's not a bad achievement given our roster

If we continue giving other teams four targets to aim at in defence in Croker, Hoppa, Whitehead and Kris with kicks and his positioning then yes we have no chance.

If we inject Savage back then we improve by 10 points at least in attack. Not that he scores 10 but he creates opportunities and doubt with his speed.

Savage has a busted hammy and is out for 6 weeks. Next plan

[RedRaider]

I look at playing in finals matches as an experience down payment on the current season and future seasons. Far better to be in the Finals than not and the only way to get there, is to get those Competition points.

[Coastalraider]

I’d much rather be there, but the entire squad was in the finals last year getting a down payment for 2023. When will we use the lessons learnt in finals to understand we need better structures to actually go deep in the finals?

We have a pattern. Awful off-season, start slowly, grind close games, find some late season form and make the 8. Week 1 or week 2, our flaws are exposed and we try again the next year. Those flaws have been evident for years now, but we seems content to just go with the flow and rinse and repeat.