Canberra Raiders v Manly Sea Eagles
Sunday 21 May, 4:05pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 1:30pm
NSW Cup: Raiders v Sea Eagles: 1:50pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502, Kayo
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower in the morning. Winds west to northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the evening. Chance of any rain: 20 per cent Min 3 Max 14
A resurgent Raiders are again at home in Round 12, meeting with a Manly Sea Eagles outfit struggling to find form.
Last round: 2023 Round 11. Canberra Raiders 26 - Parramatta Eels 18. A fifth win in a row for the Green Machine. The eight point win was the biggest margin of the year for Canberra - and it still wasn't exactly comfortable. But after the 53-12 shellacking at the hands of the Eels in Round 5, the Raiders have courageously turned things around. All the more so, given the club has had to concurrently deal with the disruptions associated with Jack Wighton's decision to head to the Rabbitohs at the end of the season.
More on Round 11: As I saw it
Team news: Raiders hooker Zac Woolford has been ruled out for a week after suffering a head knock against the Eels. Tom Starling replaces him at starting hooker, while Danny Levi returns from a broken jaw on the bench.
Manly have Josh Aloiai (dislocated shoulder), Kelma Tuilagi (facial fracture) and Aaron Woods (broken thumb) out for extended periods due to injury. Josh Schuster (quad) and Jake Trbojevic (calf) return to the starting team. Ben Trbojevic moves into the starting second row, while Samuela Fainu and Ben Condon have been added to the interchange list.
Late changes: Both teams left their top 17 line ups unchanged on Saturday afternoon. The Raiders retained James Schiller and Hohepa Puru on the extended bench, while the Sea Eagles kept Kaeo Weekes and former Raiders forward Morgan Boyle on their reserves list.
History: The Raiders have won 23 of 62 games against the Manly Sea Eagles, and drawn one. Since late 2004, the Raiders have won only eight of 29 contests, and three of the past 10. If you add in matches against the Northern Eagles, the numbers are no better. Overall, Canberra has won 25 of 68 contests, a 37 per cent win rate.
In 2019, the Raiders lost in Round 7 to the Sea Eagles 24-20 at Brookvale - despite the fact the home team lost key play maker Daly Cherry-Evans to injury for most of the second half. The Sea Eagles backed that up with an 18-14 victory at Canberra Stadium in Round 23. In 2020, on a bleak night at Campbelltown Stadium, the Raiders lost at "home", 14-6.
In 2021, an Origin affected match at Brookvale Oval saw the Green Machine get an unexpected, 30-16, win. But six weeks later, the Sea Eagles proved to be the bogey team again, beating the Raiders, 19-18, at Lang Park. A Daly Cherry-Evans field goal, with less than two minutes remaining, proved to be the match winner. It put Manly ahead by seven, and a last gasp try from the Raiders proved to be too late. The Sea Eagles added to the Raiders' woes by beating them in Mudgee, 25-6, in Round 4 last year. But Canberra finally got a little revenge in Round 24 - blowing the Sea Eagles away, 48-6, at Canberra Stadium.
The Raiders' record at Canberra Stadium is poor against Manly. They have won only eight of 18 games played between the clubs at the venue.
2022 Round 24 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
2022 Round 4 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
2021 Round 23 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
2021 Round 17 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
2020 Round 6 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
Form: Raiders: WWWWW
Sea Eagles: WWLLL
The Sea Eagles are coming off a 20-14 loss to the Sharks at Brookvale Oval - with a late try to Lachlan Croker at least making the score line close. They're on a three game losing streak, having fallen to the Titans (26-10) and Broncos (32-6) in recent weeks.
The Raiders have notched up five wins in a row - over the Broncos (20-14), Dragons (20-14), Dolphins (31-30) and Bulldogs (34-30) and Eels (26-18). That's matched the late season runs of 2020 and 2022. But the Raiders have not had a longer winning streak since 2016 (10 games).
Betting: The Raiders are $1.60 favourites, while the Sea Eagles are paying $2.35. The Sea Eagles have 3.5 points start in the line betting. The Sea Eagles' odds have firmed slightly over the week.
Stat attack: The Raiders are no longer the worst defensive team in the competition - based on tries scored per game. The Titans now hold that mantle. And some of Canberra's underlying defensive indicators are showing positive signs. The Fox Sports Lab statistics show that on a per game basis, the Raiders rank fourth for fewest running metres conceded, fifth for fewest line breaks conceded, fifth for fewest missed tackles and third for fewest offloads conceded. But there have been recent games where things have not been so good. Against the Eels, the Raiders conceded five line breaks. Six against the Dolphins. Tries conceded from kicks is another issue. So there are still things to work on.
Canberra's attack is also improving. Offloads are a strength, thanks to the forward pack - and the Raiders now rank fourth in that department. That's offering up plenty of second phase opportunity. But Canberra ranks second last for line breaks. They scored three of four tries against the Eels from kicks. They rank fourth for one pass hit ups. Last for passes in general play and engaging the line. Only the Sea Eagles have made fewer tackle breaks this year. Things to work on there too.
Sea Eagles forward Haumole Olakau'atu (5) is the top try scorer for his club - while the Raiders top two, Jordan Rapana and Hudson Young also have five apiece. Manly's Reuben Garrick is another player to watch. He ranks equal fifth in the NRL for line breaks (12), while the Raiders' best, Matt Timoko has six.
The Raiders have three players in the top 10 for post contact metres - Joe Tapine (66 per game), Sebastian Kris (59) and Matt Timoko (58). Manly's Taniela Paseka (57) and Olakau'atu (55) are not far behind.
Half Daly Cherry-Evans (9) and fullback Tom Trbojevic (6) have produced most of the Sea Eagles' try assists, as usual, but they are not as prolific as in previous seasons. Jamal Fogarty (6) is the Raiders' leader for assists. Canberra's Sebastian Kris has more average kick return metres (69) than Trbojevic (59). And Trbojevic is not far ahead in terms of average running metres (185, compared with 176 for Kris).
2023 Season record: Raiders 6 and 4 (7th, -29)
Sea Eagles 4 and 5, 1 draw (12th, -36)
Attack: Raiders 21 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 11th on average tries scored
Sea Eagles 19 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 14th on average tries scored
Defence: Raiders 24 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 15th for fewest average tries conceded
Sea Eagles 23 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 11th for fewest average tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Sea Eagles 49 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 79 per cent, Sea Eagles 77 per cent
Running: Raiders 1614 running metres per match
Sea Eagles 1648 running metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 29, Sea Eagles 27 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Sea Eagles 4 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Sea Eagles 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 10, Sea Eagles 8 per match
Kicking: Raiders 601 kicking metres per match
Sea Eagles 571 kicking metres per match
Missed tackles: Raiders 33, Sea Eagles 31 per match
Ineffective tackles: Raiders 15, Sea Eagles 14 per match
Tackle efficiency: Raiders 88 per cent, Sea Eagles 88 per cent
Errors: Raiders 10, Sea Eagles 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 5, Sea Eagles 5 per match
My tip: The Raiders are deserved favourites in this match on the basis of recent form lines. However, the numbers suggest that there is not an awful lot of difference between the two teams. Perhaps the Raiders have a slight edge in attack, the Sea Eagles a slight edge in defence. In addition, even though they might not be in tip top form, Manly still have players who have caused the Raiders a lot of heartache in recent years. Cherry-Evans and Trbojevic have often proved to be more than a handful. Sadly for Raiders fans, it'll probably be another tight game. Raiders by four.
Canberra Raiders
1. Sebastian Kris
2. Albert Hopoate
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Matt Timoko
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Tom Starling
10. Joe Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead (C)
13. Corey Horsburgh
14. Danny Levi
15. Emre Guler
16. Pasami Saulo
17. Ata Mariota
18. James Schiller
19. Hohepa Puru
Injury/Suspension
Zac Woolford, Head knock (Round 13)
Elijah Anderson, Ankle (Round 13-14)
Adrian Trevilyan, Shoulder/ACL (Mid-season 2023)
Manly Sea Eagles
1. Tom Trbojevic
2. Jason Saab
3. Brad Parker
4. Tolutau Koula
5. Reuben Garrick
6. Josh Schuster
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Taniela Paseka
9. Lachlan Croker
10. Sean Keppie
11. Haumole Olakau'atu
12. Ben Trbojevic
13. Jake Trbojevic
14. Karl Lawton
15. Samuela Fainu
16. Ethan Bullemor
17. Ben Condon
18. Kaeo Weekes
21. Morgan Boyle
Injury/Suspension
Toafofoa Sipley, Suspension (Round 13)
Zac Fulton, Elbow (Round 13-14)
Josh Aloiai, Shoulder (Round 15-18)
Aaron Woods, Thumb (Round 16-18)
Kelma Tuilagi, Facial fracture (Round 18)
Officials
Referee: Gerard Sutton
Touch judges: Darian Furner, David Munro
Video referee: Ashley Klein
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLRaidersManly
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