Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos
Saturday 8 April, 7:35pm
Lang Park
Gates open: 6:00pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502, Kayo
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Becoming windy. Sunny. Slight chance of a shower in the early morning. The chance of a thunderstorm in the early morning. Sunny day. Winds northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming westerly 25 to 40 km/h in the morning. Chance of any rain: 20 per cent Humidity: 50-75 per cent Min 20 Max 30
After a tough loss to the Panthers, it doesn't get any easier for the Raiders when they travel to Brisbane for a clash with the Broncos in Round 6.
Last round: 2023 Round 5. Penrith Panthers 53 - Canberra Raiders 12. Embarrassing. Absolutely and completely. Unable to compete against a top team. The problems evident to most since the trials, laid horribly bare. The Panthers led 13-6 at half time. Penrith went on to score a point a minute in the second half, the Raiders six. The Panthers scored more tries in the second 40 than they had all year.
More on Round 5: As I saw it
Team news: Canberra club captain, Jarrod Croker, returns to first grade at centre, replacing Harley Smith-Shields. Five eighth Jack Wighton has one more week of a suspension to serve, while Matt Frawley broke his hand in the final stages of the loss to the Panthers. That means Brad Schneider will join Jamal Fogarty in the halves. Corey Horsburgh will start at lock, with Corey Harawira-Naera dropping to the bench.
The Broncos are unchanged.
Late changes: Peter Hola will make his NRL debut in Raiders colours, after Joe Tapine remained in Canberra on Saturday for the birth of his first child. Emre Guler will start in place of Tapine at prop, while Hola comes onto the bench. James Schiller is the 18th man, while Trey Mooney is the other place retained on the extended bench. Mooney played a full game of NSW Cup on Saturday.
The Broncos retained Jordan Pereira and Brendan Piakura on their reserves list on Saturday evening. Their top 17 is unchanged.
Milestone: This will be the 50th NRL game for Sebastian Kris.
History: The Raiders have won 22 of 54 matches against the Brisbane Broncos, with one draw. That’s just a 41 per cent win rate. Canberra has also only won three of the past 10 matches between the clubs. The Raiders suffered a six game losing streak against the Broncos between 2014 and 2018. But Canberra won the next three in a row. It was a fairly narrow win in 2019 (26-22), but there were big margins in 2020 (36-8) and 2021 (38-16). That trend was halted in Round 14 last year, when Brisbane produced a six point win at Lang Park (24-18).
2022 Round 14: Canberra Raiders V Brisbane Broncos
2021 Round 14: Canberra Raiders V Brisbane Broncos
2020 Round 14: Canberra Raiders V Brisbane Broncos
The Raiders have only won four of 19 matches against Brisbane at Lang Park. The last time they beat the Broncos at the venue was in 2010 (18-16), when they knocked the Brisbane out of the finals. It was the first time the Broncos had missed out in almost 20 years. The Raiders also won only once in the six matches played at the northern capital's QEII Stadium, between 1993 and 2002. The Raiders have won eight of the 27 games they've played at Lang Park, including victories over the Crushers, Bulldogs and Sharks.
Form: Raiders: LLWLL
Broncos: WWWWW
The Broncos have opened the season with a five game winning streak. The closest they've come to a loss was in Round 1, when they beat the Panthers by a point at Penrith (13-12). They are coming off a 46-12 victory over the Wests Tigers in Brisbane. The Raiders have just one win from five in 2023 - against the Sharks (24-20) in Round 3.
Betting: The Broncos are $1.20 favourites, while the Raiders are $4.50 rank outsiders. The Raiders have 15.5 points start in the line betting. Canberra's points start has drifted slightly since the market opened.
Stat attack: The statistics for these two teams are stark. All the numbers show why the Broncos are sitting on top of the competition ladder and the Raiders are barely avoiding the wooden spoon spot.
The Broncos have the best attacking record in the competition, while only the Tigers have scored fewer tries than the Raiders. Brisbane ranks first for running metres gained and equal first for line breaks.
The Broncos have the second best defence, behind the Panthers. After last Friday night's thrashing, no team has conceded more points than the Raiders. The Raiders rank second for missed tackles. Surprisingly, Melbourne is the team than ranks first in that department.
The little chink in the Broncos' armour is their error rate. But that comes with the expansive attacking style they have brought to the table so far. Are the Raiders well placed to take advantage? Probably not. The Raiders make lots of errors and give away too many penalties themselves. As a result, Canberra has had the lowest share of possession in the NRL in the opening five rounds.
Brisbane's Kotoni Staggs is one of the leading try scorers in the NRL (six tries), while Adam Reynolds is the leading goal kicker (19). Broncos prop Payne Haas ranks first for post contact metres (396) - but Canberra's Joe Tapine (315) and Sebastian Kris (313) are not far behind and sit in the top ten. Haas also ranks third in the NRL for most running metres (930), while Kris is seventh (884). Kris is first for kick return metres (436).
No player has produced more try assists than Broncos' playmakers Adam Reynolds and Reece Walsh (six each). Canberra hooker Tom Starling has three.
2023 Season record: Raiders 1 and 4 (16th, -54)
Broncos 5 and 0 (1st, +75)
Attack: Raiders 16 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked equal 14th on tries scored
Broncos 29 points and 5 tries scored per match, 1st on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 27 points and 5 tries conceded per match, ranked 17th for fewest points conceded
Broncos 14 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked second for fewest points conceded
Possession: Raiders 47 per cent, Broncos 51 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 75 per cent, Broncos 76 per cent
Running: Raiders 1583 running metres per match
Broncos 1897 running metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 24, Broncos 35 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 3, Broncos 6 per match
Try assists: Raiders 2, Broncos 4 per match
Offloads: Raiders 8, Broncos 11 per match
Kicking: Raiders 588 kicking metres per match
Broncos 515 kicking metres per match
Missed tackles: Raiders 36, Broncos 27 per match
Ineffective tackles: Raiders 14, Broncos 14 per match
Tackle efficiency: Raiders 88 per cent, Broncos 88 per cent
Errors: Raiders 11, Broncos 12 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Broncos per match
My tip: I'm surprised that the Broncos are not shorter priced favourites in this match, really. The history points to a win for Brisbane on home turf. Almost all the numbers point to a big margin. The Raiders have a significant number of players on the sidelines, while the Broncos are only missing Corey Oates. Sadly, it is difficult to see the Raiders being competitive in this game. Broncos by 13+.
Canberra Raiders
1. Sebastian Kris
2. Albert Hopoate
3. Jarrod Croker (c)
4. Matt Timoko
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Brad Schneider
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Zac Woolford
15. Emre Guler
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead (c)
13. Corey Horsburgh
14. Tom Starling
16. Pasami Saulo
17. Corey Harawira-Naera
20. Peter Hola
18. James Schiller
19. Trey Mooney
Injury/Suspension
Jack Wighton, Suspension (Round 7)
Xavier Savage, Jaw (Round 7-9)
Nick Cotric, Hamstring (Round 8-10)
Ata Mariota, Hand (Round 8-10)
Matt Frawley, Hand (Round 10-12)
Danny Levi, Jaw (Round 12-14)
Adrian Trevilyan, Shoulder/ACL (Mid-season 2023)
Brisbane Broncos
1. Reece Walsh
2. Jesse Arthars
3. Kotoni Staggs
4. Herbie Farnworth
5. Selwyn Cobbo
6. Ezra Mam
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Thomas Flegler
9. Billy Walters
10. Payne Haas
11. Kurt Capewell
12. Jordan Riki
13. Patrick Carrigan
14. Cory Paix
15. Keenan Palasia
16. Corey Jensen
17. Martin Taupau
18. Jordan Pereira
19. Brendan Piakura
Injury/Suspension
Corey Oates, Jaw (Round 8)
Officials
Referee: Grant Atkins
Touch judges: Dave Munro, Dan Munroe
Video referee: Chris Butler
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLBroncosRaiders
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