Through green eyes 2023

[greeneyed]

Through green eyes: What will 2023 bring the Canberra Raiders?



In the first part of our Canberra Raiders season preview, we take an in depth look at the club's recruitment and retention for 2023.

The recruits

2022. It ended in a finals finish for the Canberra Raiders that few expected. Certainly not after key injuries and a five game losing streak left them languishing in the bottom four, a third of the way through the season. At one stage, they sat in 15th place. But in the end, they made it all the way to the final six.

There are reasons to be positive about that journey. Some players produced career best seasons, while the Green Machine also blooded a number of young players. Joe Tapine emerged as the best prop in the game and Hudson Young excelled in the second row. Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty built their combination in the halves in the second half of the season. Rookie fullback Xavier Savage showed his potential, while young centres Sebastian Kris and Matt Timoko proved they are genuine NRL players. There are plenty of young players, like middle forwards Trey Mooney and Ata Mariota, on the way up.

But after last year's top six finish it would be a mistake to be too sanguine about the Raiders' prospects. Recruitment and retention is one reason why.

There have been a number of departures of experienced players. Veteran hooker Josh Hodgson has joined the Eels. Back rower Adam Elliott, after a good single season at the club, has gone to the Knights, while prop Ryan Sutton has joined the Bulldogs. Fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has returned to New Zealand to be closer to family. The club lost young English forward Harry Rushton for a similar reason.

There probably also needs to be some further generational change in the squad. Father Time seems to be catching up with Elliott Whitehead, while, sadly, Jarrod Croker's body is telling him something. Veteran winger Jordan Rapana has so far defied the passage of time.

All that has left the depth in some positions looking weaker or thin, while the list of recruits is very short. But the short recruitment list, and the decision to promote from within, is a deliberate strategy.

Coach Ricky Stuart recently explained it this way:

"I've got a lot of good kids coming through. I know we'll be debuting a few this year. One or two have probably played one or two games. We're in a position now where we need these young blokes to come through.

"Last year I said to my outside backs, blokes like Harley Smith-Shields, who unfortunately did a knee and missed a year, Matt Timoko, Seb Kris... I said 'You've got to got to show me that you're going to make a point of difference in the NRL, otherwise, I've got to buy over the top of you.'"

"That's the cut throat business we're in."

"I've got three or four middles now, kids that are ready to play first grade, and will. I've let go some senior players, because otherwise these younger kids would have seen their paths as blocked, and would have probably looked for another opportunity."

"I've said to them already, day one of the preseason before Christmas, that 'You've got your opportunity now to show me that you're going to be an NRL middle and it's your job'. I've got some kids coming through there that'll excite you."

For that strategy to succeed, the coaches and young players need to turn potential into performance, to turn potential into success. There's a lot of hard work ahead in doing that.

The question mark over the strategy? Clubs have rarely been successful without a good injection of new blood from outside. The Panthers have probably been the one recent exception. Less than a handful of their 2022 premiership winning team made their NRL debuts at other clubs. Almost all came through the Penrith junior grades. The Raiders too have a good development system, but I suspect some positions will still need to be boosted by further external recruitment.

Ricky Stuart no doubt recognises that. It is why the club has pursued the signature of Titans second rower David Fifita so vigorously. The backrow is the area where the club's depth is thinnest right now. Fifita is not available until 2024, and it is not at all clear that the Raiders will be able to convince him to leave the Gold Coast lifestyle behind. But if they can, and they could somehow prise him loose early, the recruitment haul for 2023 would look a whole lot different.

So what of the new recruits?

Danny Levi

Hooker Danny Levi, aged 27, Levi was born in Wellington. He stands at 177 cms and weighs in at 90 kgs. He played his junior football with the Randwick Kingfishers in the New Zealand capital, before moving to Australia. He joined the Newcastle Knights in the middle of 2013, playing with their National Youth Competition team until 2015. He became the captain of that team in 2014 and was named on the bench in the 2014 NYC Team of the Year. He was also selected to play with the Junior Kiwis at the end of 2014.



Levi made his NRL debut with the Knights in 2015, in the Round 15 clash with the Sharks. He went on to play in Newcastle's NSW Cup Grand Final win over the Wyong Roos that year. He ended up playing 85 first grade games over five years in the Hunter. He was released early to join the Manly Sea Eagles in 2020 (20 games), before heading to Brisbane in 2021. He initially signed to play in the Queensland Cup with the Norths Devils, but he was picked up by the Brisbane Broncos in late April (nine games).

At the end of 2021, he signed a two year deal with the Huddersfield Giants. He played 30 games with the English club, including the 2022 Challenge Cup final loss to the Wigan Warriors. It was the first appearance for the Giants in the final since 2009 - and Levi was a factor in getting them there. He was released early by Huddersfield - without acrimony - so he could return to the Anitpodes for family reasons.

Levi was selected for Samoa in the World Cup at season's end, and played four games, including the epic finals win over Tonga. But he had to leave camp for personal reasons after that - missing the historic victory over England, which saw Samoa catapulted into the World Cup final against Australia. He has represented New Zealand four times, and Samoa five times.

News broke in October last year that Levi had signed a two year deal with the Green Machine, but it wasn't confirmed officially until early in January - just as he was reporting for training in Canberra. It is reportedly a deal worth just $150,000 a season.

Levi's signing makes sense, given that up and coming hooker Adrian Trevilyan has been ruled out for a large part of the 2023 season after surgery for ACL and shoulder injuries. But that's not the only reason the journeyman has been brought to the club. Ricky Stuart loves creating competition among the players for spots. Stuart recently stated that Levi is a genuine challenger for the No. 9 jersey.

"He has really hit the ground running. He is fit and healthy and he has bought right into the place. Danny is going to get an opportunity in our first trial," Stuart said.

"What he has done is created a very healthy competition. Zac [Woolford] and Tommy [Starling] have done a great job for us the last couple of years and that competition is very healthy for a very important position in the team."

Pasami Saulo

Pasami Saulo, aged 24, is the only other new recruit to the Raiders' top 30 squad. 190cms and 103kgs. He played his junior footy with Fairfield United and the Maitland Pickers, before being picked up by the Newcastle Knights. He was selected for the Australian Schoolboys in 2016 and played with the Knights' National Youth Competition team in 2016 and 2017. He made his NRL debut in Newcastle's Round 22 loss to the Warriors in 2018 - but in the past five years, he's only played 27 first grade games, all off the bench. Eleven of those games came along in the back half of last season. He averaged 45 running metres and 15 tackles per game. He also posted three tackles breaks, one offload and a total of 215 post contact metres. I suspect he'll be spending a bit of time in NSW Cup. But he's come to Canberra looking for opportunity, and hopefully he finds one.



Hohepa Puru

Hohepa Puru was the captain of Penrith's premiership winning Jersey Flegg outfit in 2022. He's joined the Raiders this year on an ongoing training contract. Puru was the man of the match in the Panthers' golden point Grand Final victory over the Knights last year. In that game he produced 185 running metres, one line break, one line break assist and 36 tackles. He also played six games of NSW Cup. He's not tall, standing at 177cms and weighing in at 92kgs. He was one of four players recognised for their outstanding preseason training efforts at Braddon HQ prior to Christmas. Training the proverbial house down. It will be interesting to see how he goes on field.



RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION RATING: C Last year I said that the recruitment list was modest. This year, it is spare. But the retention has been good, headlined by a deal that could potentially keep Joe Tapine at the club until the end of 2028. New contracts for the likes of Xavier Savage, Corey Horsburgh, Ata Mariota and Matt Timoko make for a good list. And a recruitment haul that currently looks spare would look a whole lot different if the Raiders can somehow bag David Fifita - even if it is only from 2024.

Gains: Danny Levi (Huddersfield Giants, end 2024), Pasami Saulo (Newcastle Knights, end 2024)

Losses: Adam Elliott (Newcastle Knights), Josh Hodgson (Parramatta Eels), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (New Zealand Warriors), Harry Rushton (Huddersfield Giants), Ryan Sutton (Canterbury Bulldogs), Sam Williams (released)

Re-signed: Matt Frawley (end 2023), Corey Harawira-Naera (end 2025, player option 2026), Corey Horsburgh (end 2024, mutual option 2025), Ata Mariota (end 2024), Xavier Savage (end 2025), James Schiller (end 2024), Tom Starling (end 2023, player option 2024), Joseph Tapine (end 2027, player option 2028), Matthew Timoko (end 2025), Zac Woolford (end 2024)

Off contract 2023: JJ Clarkson, Matt Frawley, Emre Guler, Albert Hopoate, Jordan Rapana, Brad Schneider, Harley Smith-Shields, Adrian Trevilyan, Clay Webb

2023 top 30 squad: Nick Cotric, Jarrod Croker, Jamal Fogarty, Matt Frawley, Emre Guler, Corey Harawira-Naera, Peter Hola, Albert Hopoate, Corey Horsburgh, Sebastian Kris, Danny Levi, Ata Mariota, Trey Mooney, Josh Papalii, Jordan Rapana, Pasami Saulo, Xavier Savage, James Schiller, Brad Schneider, Harley Smith Shields, Tom Starling, Joseph Tapine, Matt Timoko, Adrian Trevilyan, Semi Valemei, Clay Webb, Elliott Whitehead, Jack Wighton, Zac Woolford, Hudson Young - end 2024

2023 development players: JJ Clarkson (end 2023), Zane Dunford (end 2025, to be included in top 30 in 2025), Brad Morkos (end 2024, to be included in top 30 in 2024), Ethan Strange (end 2025, to be included in top 30 in 2024)

2023 NRL training players: Elijah Anderson, Michael Asomua, Jordan Martin, Hohepa Puru



Plus follow us on Facebook: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders

[-PJ-]

Can’t wait for another ride..

[Matt]

Sounds good for the likes of Mooney, Puru, Saulo and maybe Hola to get a good crack

[Billy Walker]

The young players coming through need to step up big time.

[Danaman137]

Will be interesting to see which of Mooney or Mariota get first crack at the last bench middle spot. Liked what I saw from both of them last year in limited minutes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[greeneyed]

Through green eyes: What will 2023 bring the Canberra Raiders?



In the second part of our Canberra Raiders season preview, we take a look at the club's rookies to watch for 2023.

The rookies

A point of difference. That's what Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart expects his rookie players to bring when they are given their shot in the NRL.

Last year, he made those expectations clear to his young outside backs - when injuries and departures left positions open in the starting team. By season's end, Sebastian Kris and Matt Timoko were the players who had done that, establishing a good, regular centre pairing. Sadly, Harley Smith-Shields - who was joint Rookie of the Year in 2021, along with Timoko - was unable to press his claims. He was ruled out for the season with an ACL injury before it even started.

This year, Stuart has issued the same challenge to the club's young forwards. The departures of Ryan Sutton and Adam Elliott at the end of 2022 have created opportunities for players to step up in the pack.

Stuart is excited by the young talent he has available in his squad. His retention and recruitment strategy has deliberately created the space for them to become first graders. He believes there are three or four rookie forwards who are ready to play in the NRL - and will.

"The experience of Corey Horsburgh and Emre Guler is great to have and then for these younger boys such as Trey [Mooney], Ata [Mariota], Peter Hola and Pasami Saulo they haven't got a ceiling on them, those boys," Stuart recently told The Canberra Times.

"They're young boys who will get first-grade opportunity now and that's where their development comes from."

Hola (12 NRL games) was recruited from the Cowboys last year, but is still to play at the NRL level in green. Saulo (27 NRL games) has arrived this year from the Knights. But they are no longer in the rookie class. What of those who still are?

Trey Mooney

I said last year that Trey Mooney was the No. 1 rookie to watch. While he made his NRL debut in 2022, he made only one appearance. And the 20 year old's potential is such that he's again my No. 1 rookie to watch in 2023.

Mooney joined the Raiders three years ago, after coming through the junior ranks of the Parramatta Eels. The 2020 junior representative season was never completed because of the pandemic, but Mooney was part of the Raiders Under 20s team that won the local CRRL Cup Grand Final that year. In 2021, he was a key player in the Raiders' Under 19s finals campaign. Playing at lock, he won the game ball as the man of the match in the SG Ball Grand Final - with Canberra defeating the Illawarra Steelers, 18-14, at Leichhardt Oval. In that game, he showed how incredibly hard working and mobile he is.

Mooney went on to make six NSW Cup appearances in 2021 and was one of the players taken to the Gold Coast when the NRL competition temporarily relocated to Queensland. While there, he was re-signed on a three year deal, keeping him at the club to the end of 2024. He was also promoted to the top 30 squad.



In 2022, Mooney made 16 appearances in NSW Cup, scoring five tries. He also delivered 46 tackle breaks, 18 offloads and an average 99 running metres and 28 tackles per game. You can add in a 95 per cent tackle efficiency rate. His NRL debut came in the Round 13 win over the Roosters, playing 15 minutes off the bench.

Mooney can play both middle and edge - and he was being used on the edge last season in NSW Cup. The aim of that was to help him develop his lateral movement. Some see him more as a prop, but I'd really like to see him tried at lock in 2023. He's mobile and he can pass. He's not a ball player, but I think he has the capability to develop his passing game. The Raiders are in the situation where they need to work with the players they have, to develop them, and to build their game plans around their strengths. And I think Mooney is probably the best option. In any case, wherever Mooney is used in firsts, he'll do well. I expect to see a lot more of him in the top 17.

Ata Mariota

Born in Samoa, Ata Mariota, 21, was recruited to the Raiders with his younger brother, Nui, from Mounties. He started in SG Ball in 2019 - and was named the Under 18s "Players' Player". He went on to be a part of the Jersey Flegg team that made it to the 2019 grand final. He played finals off the bench, but not in the premiership decider. He was then picked up, unexpectedly, on a development contract in 2020 and joined the top grade "bubble". Many will remember him as the "biggest ever ball boy" joining in on some try celebrations. That was back when ball boys weren't permitted on the field during the pandemic, and reserves had to fill the role.



Mariota made a surprise NRL debut last year in Round 21 against the Panthers. He did well in limited minutes, after injury saw the Raiders call on him as their 18th man. He made 18 appearances in NSW Cup in 2022 - scoring five tries and posting 46 tackle breaks, 25 offloads, an average 121 running metres and 24 tackles per game and a 95 per cent tackle efficiency rate. That's more than pretty decent. He finished the year by winning the club's NSW Cup Coaches' Award and was named in the NSW Cup Team of the Year.



In July last year, Mariota signed a new two year deal with the Raiders, keeping him at the club until the end of 2024. He was also added to the top 30 squad. He's a genuine challenger for a spot on the bench, as part of the prop interchange.

Clay Webb


Clay Webb

Clay Webb, 20, has just been added to the Raiders' top 30 list. He's solid, hard working and shows plenty of promise. The Gundagai-Adelong Tigers junior was the Raiders' Harold Matthews Players' Player of the Year and represented NSW in Under 16s Origin in 2018. He was one of two junior Raiders, along with Trey Mooney, called into a "Future Blues" camp at the end of 2019 by NSW coach Brad Fittler. A knee injury (meniscus) early in the 2020 SG Ball Cup put paid to his year. But he sure made up for that in 2021. He captained the Raiders' SG Ball team to the premiership - and played five games in NSW Cup to boot. In 2022, he made 20 appearances in "reggies", scoring three tries and an average of 69 running metres and 25 tackles per game. He posted a tackle efficiency rate of 94 per cent.

Adrian Trevilyan

Sadly, because of injury, we are not going to be able to watch Adrian Trevilyan on the field until sometime in the middle of 2023. And he'll probably take time to get into full stride after a knee reconstruction. Recruited from Townsville in 2020, Trevilyan led Kirwan State High to the National Schoolboys Championship in 2019 and, in the process, won the Peter Sterling Medal as the player of the tournament. Andrew Voss - who has been commentating on the Schoolboys Cup since the early 1990s - named Trevilyan as the best hooker he's seen in that competition. That's some recommendation.

The 21 year old's opportunities in the lower grades at the Raiders have been restricted by a combination of injury and the pandemic. He made only nine appearances in NSW Cup in 2022. He has been included in the Raiders' top 30 for 2023. He is off contract - and he won't get much chance to prove his worth for an extension. But I'd be very surprised if an extension wasn't forthcoming, given his potential.

Brad Morkos

Brad Morkos, who turns 20 in February this year, is the No. 1 rookie to watch in the backs. He joined the Raiders last year, after turning out for the Illawarra Steelers in the 2021 SG Ball Grand Final - won by the Raiders. He was subsequently named in the Australian Schoolboys merit team. The Dragons somehow let him slip through their fingers. He's on a development contract at the moment, but will progress to the top 30 in 2024. He made 18 appearances in NSW Cup for the Raiders last year, scoring one try and producing two line breaks, 27 tackle breaks and 83 average running metres.



Morkos was selected for Lebanon in last year's World Cup, and that will have done him the world of good. He started at centre in all four of the Cedars' games. And while most of Lebanon's attack went down the other edge, he scored one try in the clash with Ireland. He can hold his head high after his showing in the tournament.

Chevy Stewart


Raiders junior recruit Chevy Stewart.

Probably the most exciting junior prospect is a new recruit from the Sharks, Chevy Stewart. He was the captain of the Cronulla Harold Matthews team that made the Grand Final last year. The Sharks lost the premiership decider and he was sent off for dissent - so he'll probably want to forget that one. He followed that up by being selected for the Australian Schoolboys team that went to Fiji last year. He was also ranked the best Under 18s player in the country after the 2022 ASSRL Championships in Redcliffe.

The Bulldogs had tried to entice him away from the Sharks, and Cronulla had tried hard to keep him. But the Raiders won the battle for his services. Bulldogs head honcho Phil Gould rates him highly. He described Stewart this way late last year: "He's probably one of the best young goal kickers I've seen. Extremely fast, Tedesco like player". Stewart will likely start the year in SG Ball, but will probably end up playing Jersey Flegg. So he's at least a year or two away. But I'm looking forward to seeing him turn out in green.

Other players to watch

Middle forward Jayden Clarkson was one of the stars for the Queensland team that won the Australian Secondary Schools Championship in Canberra in 2019. He was subsequently picked for the Under 18s Australian Schoolboys. He started with the Raiders in SG Ball in 2020 - But before the competition could be completed, it was cancelled, due to the pandemic. That same year, Clarkson went on to play with the Raiders' Under 20s team that won the CRRL Cup. A serious leg injury kept him out of the 2021 SG Ball Grand Final winning team - and his 2022 season was also affected by injury. But he has huge potential and could be anything in the game. Hopefully he gets a clear run in 2023.

The Raiders have just added Sea Eagles forward, Zane Dunford, to the books. He can play edge and in the middle. He's one of the four development players for 2023. On a three year deal, he's already been slated to join the top 30 by 2025. He's the son of former Manly forward Matt Dunford - and was captain of the Sea Eagles SG Ball team in 2021. Jordan Martin has also been training with the Raiders' top squad. He joined the Raiders in 2018 from the NSW south coast. He has really impressed in the junior grades. He made 11 NSW Cup appearances in 2022 - scoring two tries and averaging 40 running metres and 17 tackles per game.

Ethan Strange is a young half to have on your radar. A Central Coast junior, who has been in the Roosters' system, Strange was recruited to the club last year to the end of 2025. He's on a development deal this year, but will join the top 30 in 2024. We didn't get to see an awful lot of him last year, but he's definitely one to keep an eye out for this year.

There are some other backs to also watch, notably Elijah Anderson and Michael Asomua. They've both been training with the top squad in the off season. Anderson, 23, made his NRL debut in 2021. Asomua was selected for the Under 19 Blues team last year and has heaps of upside. He also made the 2021 Australian Schoolboys merit team. Exciting prospect. A debut in 2023 is not out of the question.





Plus follow us on Facebook: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders

[RedRaider]

Thanks for the update on the rookies GE. Lots to look forward to in future seasons with players of talent, pace and some junior captains coming through.

[greeneyed]

Through green eyes: What will 2023 bring the Canberra Raiders?



In the third part of our Canberra Raiders season preview, we take an in depth look at how the squad is shaping up for 2023.

The squad

The job of building and rebuilding a football team is a process that never ends. But at present, the Canberra Raiders squad is in a phase of significant transition. Of generational change.

Veteran hooker Josh Hodgson has now left the club, joining the Eels after he spent his last season with the Green Machine on the sidelines. Gone too is fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, after a year where he struggled with injury and form. He's returned to New Zealand to be closer to his family. The Raiders also have a relatively new halfback, Jamal Fogarty, brought to the club at the end of 2021 as a replacement for Englishman George Williams. But he missed almost half the season, sidelined until Round 12 by a preseason knee injury.

The Raiders spent a good deal of 2022 adjusting to the injury disruptions in the spine. Two rookies ended up cementing their place at starting hooker and full back. But that painful adjustment process has given the club a head start on dealing with the departures of Hodgson and Nicoll-Klokstad. There's also been some turnover in the Raiders' forwards. Prop Ryan Sutton has joined the Bulldogs, while backrower Adam Elliott has left for the Knights after just one season. And those departures have opened up the prospect of even more generational change in the middle of the field.

So how is the squad as a whole shaping up for 2023?

The spine

There is no doubt about the Canberra Raiders' top halves combination in 2023. Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty have a lock on the No. 6 and 7 jerseys. That's not to say depth is missing. With Matt Frawley and Brad Schneider on the books, the halves depth chart looks fairly good.



Wighton is the $900,000 main man, reportedly the highest paid player at the club. The 2020 Dally M Medalist started last season in some of the best form of his career. He also finished 2022 strongly - and that resulted in his selection for Australia's World Cup squad. He was outstanding at centre for the Kangaroos. But there were some dips in form along the way last year. And his 2022 statistics suggest that there's some room for improvement this season.

Wighton would have been hoping for a better start to 2023. His 30th birthday celebrations went wrong in the early hours of last Sunday morning. He and his cousin, Rabbitohs fullback Latrell Mitchell, were arrested after a "friendly wrestle" outside Fiction nightclub in Canberra. It doesn't sound like a serious incident. Reportedly, Wighton was given the opportunity to walk away by police, but he refused a direction to leave - as he did not want to abandon Mitchell, who was under arrest. Both will play for the Indigenous All Stars this Saturday. The pair is scheduled for a court appearance the week before the season starts. We'll have to wait for the outcome of that to see what action, if any, the NRL takes. Hopefully, no games are missed due to suspension. But the NRL has recently been quick to issue suspensions for even minor incidents.



Jamal Fogarty's comeback from injury last year was impressive - and he was an important part of the team's late run to the finals. He ranked equal first at the Raiders for try assists and equal fourth for total try involvements, despite playing only 15 games. By the end of season 2022, he and Wighton had started to build a good combination. Wighton explained what Fogarty had brought to the side this way:

"He could talk with a mouthful of marbles. He takes numbers off me. It gives shapes to both sides, he's got a great kicking game, and he's organising the show. Having great shape on the right side takes pressure off and makes both sides more of a threat, instead of just being a one-sided team."



More attacking threat on the right side of the field would definitely be welcome in 2023.

With the departure of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Raiders coach Ricky Stuart now has all his chips on Xavier Savage as his fullback. It is a big responsibility for the 20 year old. He made a couple of appearances in the No. 1 jersey in 2021 - and once he was given the fullback role in Round 12 last year, he held onto it. He was no doubt still learning his trade on the job. He had some handling errors in him under the high ball, and he was still learning which lines to run and how to organise and position himself in defence. But he has huge potential and improved significantly each week. And he offered something that the Raiders had been seriously lacking - speed and potential threat in attack.

Savage appears to have gained some weight and muscle in the offseason, so that should help his defensive game. He's been named for Saturday's Preseason Challenge match against the Bulldogs - a 28 man squad mostly missing NRL players - but he probably won't play for more than 40 minutes, if that. The Raiders don't have huge depth in this position, with Albert Hopoate and Ray Burns the other potential fullbacks named. Knock on wood, fingers crossed, that Savage can avoid injury and suspension in 2023.

Three players will be vying for the dummy half position. For the past couple of years, Tom Starling seemed to be the heir apparent to Josh Hodgson. But it was a 25 year old Raiders junior, Zac Woolford, who made the No. 9 jersey his own in 2022. He's the son of former Raiders captain and hooker, Simon. Woolford started last year with NSW Cup outfit, the Newtown Jets. But he answered the Raiders' mayday call, returned to Canberra and made his NRL debut in Round 10, at starting hooker. He and Starling ended up forming a pretty effective hooking combination.



Woolford delivered very good service from dummy half, allowing the halves to do their job, to run the plays. He isn't a player who runs a lot. He doesn't kick a lot. But he ensured the spine gelled, something that the Raiders have struggled with for some time, with a dominant playmaker at hooker. Starling has always been at his best off the bench. That was true again in 2022. Small and nippy, he can exploit tired opposition defences. But he does seem to struggle if sent into the opening exchanges. It takes away his zip. His service from dummy half suffers. But he's an ideal No. 14.

Danny Levi is the wild card. Formerly with the Knights, Sea Eagles, Broncos, the 27 year old has joined the Raiders after a year with the Huddersfield Giants. The journeyman did well in England - and coach Ricky Stuart has selected him at No. 9 in Sunday's first trial match of the year. Woolford has been given the No. 14 and Starling has been rested. Reading the tea leaves, I'd say Levi and Woolford will be fighting it out for the starting role. There's depth and competition in this position, but it is the weakest spot in the Canberra spine in my view.

Is that a spine that is up with the likes of the Storm, Roosters and Panthers? No. But, it is a spine that is around the middle of the pack - and certainly could help steer the side to a top eight finish. The best players will have to be at their best though.

SPINE RATING: C

The forwards

Joe Tapine and Josh Papali'i could be the best starting prop partnership in the game. Last year, Tapine had a season like he'd never had before. Like few Raiders have ever had before. He was completely dominant. He was named Dally M Prop of the Year, along with Payne Haas. In winning the Meninga Medal, he finished with 44 points, 22 points clear of his nearest rival, Jack Wighton. Four time Meninga Medalist, Josh Papali'i had to take an unaccustomed back seat to Tapine. But he was still one of the best front rowers around. There is plenty of depth in the middle, too. Emre Guler has been "training the house down" according to Joe Tapine, while Ata Mariota is one of the young props who is expected to step up this year. Guler and Mariota have been named as the starting props in Sunday's Preseason Challenge match. They might just be the bench props in the eyes of the coach.

Corey Horsburgh has been named in the No. 13 jersey for the trial. It is the clearest signal yet that lock is where he'll start in Round 1. I'm not sure he's best suited to that role, and I'd like to see Trey Mooney graduate into the position. He's been picked in the second row for Sunday's game, along with Clay Webb. It looks like they are the first in line on the depth chart for the back row.

The backrow is a bit of a problem area. Hudson Young came of age as an NRL player in 2022. From being dropped to NSW Cup early in the season, he became one of the best second rowers in the competition. He was the top try scorer at the club in last year, along with Sebastian Kris. So there is no doubt he has a lock on one spot. I expect that for coach Ricky Stuart, captain Elliott Whitehead is a certain starter as Young's second row partner. But it looked like Father Time was starting to catch up with the 33 year old last year. Whether that was due to fitness or injury, I'm not sure, possibly a bit of both. I'd have him starting, but a lot of Raiders' fans are pushing the barrow of Corey Harawira-Naera. In my view, CHN didn't have the best of years in 2022 either. He tended to make defensive errors under fatigue - and in response, he's shed some kilos in the preseason. Time will tell who wins out.

The forward pack was a real strength for Canberra in the season just passed. And while there have been some departures this year, the young forwards on the way up should more than cover the losses. I think there are the makings there of a top four pack. The Raiders are targeting the signature of Titans second rower David Fifita for 2024. If they could manage that - and perhaps even get him early - the forward pack could be almost unstoppable.

FORWARDS RATING: A

The backs

2022 saw Sebastian Kris and Matt Timoko emerge as genuine first graders, filling the void left in the centres by Jarrod Croker's ongoing injury woes and the sacking of Curtis Scott. Croker, 32, now recovered from shoulder surgery, has been named at left centre and as captain in Sunday's trial game. However, it won't be easy for him to dislodge Kris or Timoko - and get to that elusive 300th NRL match. Veteran Jordan Rapana and Nick Cotric probably have a lock on the wing positions - though the form of both was below their career best in 2022. There are some good young three quarters on the way up. Potentially the best of them, Harley Smith-Shields, missed the whole of last season due to an ACL injury. But he should be right to go in Round 1. He'll mount a serious challenge for a first grade spot at centre or on the wing. Nick Cotric will want to step up a gear. The likes of Brad Morkos, Albert Hopoate and Elijah Anderson provide good depth.

I'd like to think the backs will prove to merit a "B" rating, but the wingers in particular will need to lift.

BACKS RATING: C

Overall those ratings suggest the Raiders are a team that's again on the edge of the top eight. However, it is a squad that has the potential to grow and improve as the younger players step up. That's the plan anyway. Hopefully, it all goes to plan.

In the final part of the 2023 season preview, I'll looking at the new coaching structure and the draw, predict a Round 1 line up and give an overall verdict on the Green Machine's prospects for the season.



Plus follow us on Facebook: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders

[RedRaider]

GE, I would definitely have the backs as a B. There are some fine players there, with the centers in particular both being named in the NZ squad, although only Kris was selected to go to the RLWC.

[Finchy]

Yeah our backs are pretty good imo.

- Savage is the weakest link at the moment for mine, but at least offers some offensive threat and could be anything
- Cotric was a little down in form but was playing for NSW and Aus only a couple of years ago. He busts plenty of tackles, has safe hands, defends well, and is a good finisher
- Timoko is a powerful little up and comer, and made the initial NZ squad. Still has some defensive flaws but overall a net positive and good attacking threat
- Kris is a great attacker, similar to peak Croker in terms of finesse and footwork, great under an attacking high ball or kick chase, finds the try line often. Like Croker and Timoko, has some defensive flaws, but is improving. Also made the NZ side last year
- Rapana, though aging, still offers plenty of energy in attack and defence, and is still playing rep footy

In reserve we still have some decent talent to back up in case of injury, with Croker, HSS, Schiller, Hoppa, etc all very capable.

Overall I’d also say at worst it’s a B, maybe even A-. It’s not our weakest area.

[BadnMean]

Nice series to lead into the season GE.

I can see RRs point about the backs as Cotric n Rapana were also rep quality in recent past but as a unit we are a bit slow and there's the sense our centres are on the rise but the wings heading the other way.

[Billy Walker]

I think GEs ratings of the backs is correct, but I agree there is potential for them to go either way.

We definitely have some A grade forwards, A+ even, but they are offset by a few that struggle to get a pass mark. We would be ready to fork out monster $$ for Fifita if we already had an A rated pack.

[greeneyed]

Through green eyes: As I saw it



2023 Preseason Challenge Round 1. Canterbury Bulldogs 34 - Canberra Raiders 18. If there is one thing we know about Canberra coach Ricky Stuart it is this: he doesn't like trial matches. The sight of Xavier Savage on the sideline in the second half of the Raiders' trial against the Bulldogs is the reason why. He looked distressed, at one point covering his face with his hands. The Raiders have concerns he's broken his jaw - and he's been sent for scans.

That news has really overshadowed anything that happened in the game itself. First, there’s the pain and disappointment for Savage. Then there is the possible problem posed for the club - which reflects the fact that the Raiders have relatively little depth at fullback. I wrote just last week that Ricky Stuart now has "all his chips on Savage at fullback" - and that we all ought to knock on wood and hope that the young Queenslander doesn't miss many games due to injury or suspension. There just aren't a lot of options among the players who are ready for first grade. Albert Hopoate is perhaps the most likely alternative, while Jordan Rapana is a stop gap in the role. So the Raiders will be doing some traditional cliche "sweating on the results of the scans".





Looking at the game itself, what did we learn? The first thing to say is that today's game was "only a trial". The Raiders played only a handful of their top 17, while the Bulldogs played maybe 10, maybe a dozen of their top players - including star recruit Reed Mahoney. That showed in the first half, when both clubs had their strongest players on the field. The Dogs were in control for most of the first forty. But while it was "only a trial", it is desirable - as one of our followers on Twitter put it - to "trial well". And the Raiders didn't really trial that well. Not like some other teams this weekend, that had lots of young players in their squads.

It was clear that the Bulldogs were aiming to "trial well". Canterbury's head football guru Phil Gould has been revamping the club from top to bottom. There is a high profile new young coach, Cameron Ciraldo. There are some high profile recruits. There is an abundance of buzz and expectation. It was important for the struggling Dogs to show they have launched into a new Ciraldo era. And they came out and played that way, in both attack and defence. In contrast, the Raiders were flat.



That no doubt reflects coach Stuart's ambivalence towards trials in general. But I'd have liked to have seen better performances from some of the young forwards, in particular. Corey Horsburgh played at lock - despite a match eve report he'd be rested, due to concerns over his shoulder. Perhaps the shoulder problem had an impact, but there were too many errors - and not enough sign that he is indeed the solution at No. 13. Ata Mariota and Emre Guler were the starting props - suggesting they might be the leading contenders for the bench prop positions. I didn't see a lot to suggest that Guler has stepped up on his 2022 form.

However, it was good to see Ata Mariota top the running metres among the forwards, while Trey Mooney topped the tackle count (37). New recruits Pasami Saulo and Hohepa Puru were both very good off the bench. Have a look at their statistics below. I'll admit I hadn't quite been expecting them to play as well as they did.

Danny Levi and Zac Woolford shared the duties at dummy half. Levi was injected first, and he was on field in a period in which the Raiders had relatively little possession. But after Woolford entered the fray halfway through the first half, the Green Machine looked a lot more composed. We will find out more from the second trial, but today's match didn't change my view that Woolford is the best option for the No. 9.

How about the backs? In the halves, Brad Schneider and Matt Frawley showed why they are such good backups to Jamal Fogarty and Jack Wighton. Frawley's kicking game was very good at times, but sometimes he took the wrong options. Schneider is a young half, developing well. He set up a try for himself with a kick at the goal posts - and also put Elijah Anderson over the line. James Schiller was a late inclusion in the starting team on the wing, with centre Brad Morkos dropping to the bench. Schiller impressed, just like he always does when given a chance. He scored a 90 metre try after swooping on a loose ball. While there were some Bulldogs players who almost kept up with him, they couldn't round him up. That pace was great to see. Jarrod Croker made his comeback from shoulder surgery, and he probably got rid of a few cobwebs. But he's got a fair way to go if he's to shift one of the current incumbents at centre, Sebastian Kris and Matt Timoko.

One other thing. NRL assistant coach Michael Maguire (he has a fancy title, which I can never quite remember, but that will do) has been working on the defence in the preseason. The game was pretty loose and the Raiders conceded six tries. It was a trial, so no need to be too concerned. But when I expected the defence to be at its best, in the opening stages, it wasn't. The goal line defence, in particular, was pretty embarassing at times. Things to keep working on I guess.

Stats that mattered: The Bulldogs had 55 per cent of the ball - and they completed at 86 per cent (compared with 75 per cent for the Raiders). That's pretty darn good, given it was the first outing of the season. Not so good for the Raiders. The Dogs made more runs (191-142), running metres (1949-1445), post contact metres (648-486), kick return metres (218-167), line breaks (8-2), tackle breaks (35-21) and offloads (7-3). Yes, eight line breaks.

The Raiders had to do a lot more tackling (388-288). And while their effective tackle rate wasn't far behind the Bulldogs (92 per cent Bulldogs, 89 per cent Raiders), they missed a lot of tackles (35-21). The Raiders also posted more ineffective tackles (12-5).

Canberra did show some better signs in the second half, when the two "B" line ups were on the field. The Raiders trailed 22-6 at half time, but caught up some in the second half. Then the Dogs drew away again. The Raiders' poor goal kicking (just one conversion) did make the scoreboard look worse than it might. But, overall, those match statistics properly paint a picture of Dogs dominance.

Memorable moments: The try to James Schiller was the best for the Raiders. Schneider's kick ahead for himself also showed some very good skill. It was good to see Elijah Anderson cross, along with young five eighth Mitchell Spencer. Spencer played in the Raiders' 2021 SG Ball Cup premiership winning team - and he's a player to keep an eye on in the lower grades.

Best performers:

Top tacklers: Trey Mooney (37), Hohepa Puru (28), Danny Levi (26), Pasami Saulo (25)
Most metres gained: James Schiller (157), Elijah Anderson (120), Albert Hopoate (114)

Ata Mariota was the only forward who broke 100 running metres (103), but average minutes were obviously lower than in the regular season. Hohepa Puru (75) ranked second.

I won't award player ratings for the trials. We'll start with those in Round 1 of the season proper.



Plus follow us on Facebook: The Greenhouse Forum and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders

If you can put some sentences together and you'd like to write a regular column for The Greenhouse, let us know! We are keen to have more contributing writers!

[Billy Walker]

I wish the raiders started 2023 in the same form as GE. There is usually a point or two I might find questionable but not today. He has nailed it! Great write up.

[greeneyed]

Through green eyes: What will 2023 bring the Canberra Raiders?



In the final part of our Canberra Raiders season preview, we take a look at the Raiders coaching structure, the draw and make some predictions.

The verdict

For the second year in a row, the Raiders' best laid plans have gone awry due to a key preseason injury. Last year, Canberra halfback Jamal Fogarty suffered a serious knee injury in the warm up for his first trial game in green. He ended up missing most of the first half of the season. This year, a broken jaw for fullback Xavier Savage in the trial against the Bulldogs will see him miss the first six weeks of the 2023 season.

How will Canberra coach Ricky Stuart pivot and adjust? It seems his first instinct has been to turn to his most experienced players, to those have done it before.

The team announced this week for the Green Machine's second trial reveals the coach's thinking on how he'll cover the loss of Savage. And as the team includes all the club's star players, it provides a strong indication of the starting line up for the Raiders Round 1 clash with the Cowboys in Townsville.

Jordan Rapana seems to be the answer to the fullback conundrum. He has been given the No. 1 jersey this weekend. Canberra doesn't have strong depth in this position, following the departure of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad. There are promising players on the way up, but the options are a bit limited among the players who are first grade ready.

Rapana has played 15 NRL games at fullback, including two last year. When called upon to play at the back, he's generally done a very good job. But he had an unhappy game in that role in last year's loss to the Warriors at Redcliffe. I thought at the time that might be his last hurrah at No. 1. It seemed like the pace and endurance required at fullback might now be a bit beyond the veteran. And sometimes, "safety first" is needed at fullback, and that's not really Rapa's style. That said, he is very experienced, and his confidence and high involvement are real strengths.

I had thought Albert Hopoate might have been the most likely choice as Savage's replacement. He's played at fullback at junior level, but has played only two games there at NRL or NSW Cup level. Others like James Schiller, Elijah Anderson and Rayden Burns are even less experienced. All up, it is hard to argue with the call. The other thing I like about the selection is that it has opened up a spot on the wing for Harley Smith-Shields. He missed all of last season with an ACL. Long time readers will know I've been banging on about the potential of HSS for quite a while, so it is great to see him back in the trial team for Sunday. The back five looks about as solid as the Raiders can put on the field, given Savage is unavailable.

There are some other, bigger surprises in the line up to meet the Tigers this weekend.

First, Joe Tapine has been selected at lock. He had the best season of his career at prop last year - and he was named Dally M Prop of the Year. So why mess with that? One reason is that the depth in the backrow is very thin. Corey Horsburgh, didn't have a great game when selected at lock last weekend. He played despite a shoulder problem, but there were too many loose balls. Another contender, Trey Mooney started in the second row, but also produced some errors. The arrival of Michael Maguire could be the other reason for this selection. The new "Senior NRL Consultant", and New Zealand coach, selected Tapine at lock for the Kiwis through the World Cup.

Tapine has played 29 games at lock at NRL level, the last time being Round 6 of 2021. When V'landysball was at its peak, in 2020 and 2021, he probably wasn't mobile enough for the role. But the game has slowed down some since the "six again" rule changes in 2022. And it is not like he can't throw a pass. He ranked fourth in the competition for offloads last year. So I can see it makes some sense.

Emre Guler has been picked at starting prop, alongside Josh Papalii. Guler has apparently "trained the house down" in the preseason. Personally, I thought Ata Mariota was the best prop in the first trial.

The other surprise was the absence of hooker Zac Woolford in the squad. New recruit Danny Levi has again been selected at No. 9, while Tom Starling - who was rested last week - will play off the bench. I thought the team looked much more composed last week with Woolford on the field last Sunday. Some fans have suggested there may be issues with the Germ's fitness, some pointed to a late try cause. But I'm a bit like the robot in "Lost in Space" at the moment. My head keeps saying "That does not compute". The only explanation I can process is that Stuart knows what Woolford can deliver and he's being rested. There is a NSW Cup trial this weekend, but we haven't seen a team list. At some point soon we might learn if being rested is the explanation. But for the moment, that's what I'm choosing to believe. Perhaps in vain.

I'm aiming to predict what the coaches will do in the following predicted Round 1 line up. It is not the team I would select, necessarily. For the moment, I'm going with the Tapine to lock concept, but that could easily just be a one week experiment. And I could be wrong on Levi, in particular. I'm going to reserve the right to adjust the predicted line up for Round 1 in next week's column. But here goes...



Predicted Round 1 line up: 1. Jordan Rapana 2. Nick Cotric 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Harley Smith-Shields 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Zac Woolford 10. Emre Guler 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Joseph Tapine

14. Tom Starling 15. Corey Harwaria-Naera 16. Ata Mariota 17. Corey Horsburgh

The coaching

Longevity in rugby league coaching is a rare thing.

Former Raider, and three time premiership winner, Craig Bellamy is about to enter his 20th season as the coach of the Melbourne Storm. It is probably his last. No other current NRL coach has had a longer tenure at their club than "Bellyache". Only Parramatta Eels coach Brad Arthur and Raiders coach Ricky Stuart come close to that. Both are heading into their 10th season as the head coach of their clubs.

There are two coaches with longer records who are about to start all over again. Wayne Bennett will coach his sixth club this season - new entrant to the NRL competition, the Dolphins. He kicked off with the Raiders, in what was then the NSWRL, back in 1987 and has since notched up 886 premiership games as a coach. He was in charge of one club, the Broncos, for 24 years and has seven premierships in all. Tim Sheens is about to start his second stint at the Wests Tigers. He coached the Raiders to three premierships and has four titles all up.



Last year, Ricky Stuart became the longest serving coach in the Canberra Raiders' history (222 games) - overtaking Sheens (219). He ranks fifth for the most NRL games coached (467). More than the likes of Warren Ryan, Bob Fulton and Jack Gibson.

Stuart won the premiership in his first year as a head coach - with the Sydney Roosters. But he's yet to win another. He came close in 2019, getting the Raiders to the Grand Final - a controversial match in which Canberra was probably the better team everywhere but on the score board. But as we head into 2023, his long wait for another premiership, the long wait of the Raiders faithful, continues.

Stuart is no stranger to controversy. He still seems to attract the ire of the fans of his last two clubs, the Sharks and Eels. Last season, he became the first coach to be suspended by the NRL - after press conference comments about Penrith player Jaeman Salmon. But he's got to have be doing something right all these years. Because you don't have the longevity as an NRL coach that Ricky Stuart has had, without earning it.

Longevity is also the reason why last year's departures of assistant coaches, Andrew McFadden and Brett White, are probably not a bad thing. They have taken new opportunities at other clubs and that should be good for them. But there are also benefits the Raiders - because it ensures that there are new voices in the coaching ranks. And you need that when the head coach has been around for a decade.

Former Raiders player and assistant coach, Michael Maguire has now rejoined the club, this time as "Senior NRL consultant". I guess that's a fancy way of saying he's more than just one of the assistant coaches, he's the No. 2 coach at the club. He's been put in charge of the Raiders' defence.

Maguire is a premiership winner as a head coach (Rabbitohs 2014) and the coach of New Zealand. He was sacked last year as Wests Tigers coach, after four seasons in which success proved difficult to come by. But that is a club where a lot of things have been in disarray for a long time. Maguire will find himself in a more stable environment in Canberra.

Maguire is known to have an intense personality. A bit like Stuart. But they seem to be working well together, with Stuart giving lots of responsibility to his assistants. Maguire has just turned down an offer from Wallabies coach Eddie Jones to be his defensive assistant - in the lead up to the Rugby Union World Cup.

"With Stick, I'm really enjoying working with him. Being away for 15 years, the whole place has transformed," Maguire said, when explaining that decision.

"It's a different feel down here in the community, you can feel the hunger for the Raiders. It feels a bit like the early '90s. Getting back to that success would be very nice."

It should be a good partnership. Attacking guru Mick Crawley is still on board. Justin Giteau has taken over as NSW Cup coach, with Joel Carbone moving to the role of NRL recruitment manager. There is also a new head of performance, Josh Strahorn. He's most recently worked with the Brumbies as speed and rehabilitation coach. Some fresh faces, some fresh voices. Hopefully, all the ingredients are in place for a premiership assault.

The draw

On the release of the 2023 NRL draw, NRL.com told us that the Raiders have the easiest draw of them all. That was based on rating opposition teams by their finish on the 2022 competition ladder, and the number of times the Raiders play more highly rated opposition.

Just eight of the Raiders' 24 games will be against last year's top eight teams. Canberra will play the top four teams of 2022 only five times. Of course, last year's top teams won't be this year's top teams. Ricky Stuart has rejected the notion it is an "easy" draw.

"I have coached at the NRL level for a very long time and I haven't had an easy draw yet," he said. "Last year a lot of people were predicting the Cowboys to run last and they finished top four. We can't all be experts."

But on balance, it would be hard to imagine a more favourable draw for the Green Machine.

Teams they play twice
Dragons, Dolphins, Sharks, Knights, Broncos, Bulldogs, Warriors, Tigers

Teams they play once
Cowboys, Panthers, Eels, Storm, Sea Eagles, Titans, Rabbitohs, Roosters

Games played against
Top eight: 8
Top four: 5
Bottom eight: 14
Bottom four: 7

Day-by-day breakdown
Friday: 6 games
Saturday: 9 games
Sunday: 9 games

Turnaround time
5 Days: 1 game
6 Days: 6 games
7+ Days: 16 games

Byes
Round 8, 16 and 20

2023 draw
Round 1: Saturday, March 4 Cowboys v Raiders, North Queensland Stadium, 5:30pm
Round 2: Saturday, March 11 Dolphins v Raiders, Dolphin Oval, 5:30pm
Round 3: Sunday, March 19 Raiders v Sharks, Canberra Stadium, 6:15pm
Round 4: Sunday, March 26 Knights v Raiders, Hunter Stadium, 4:05pm*
Round 5: Friday, March 31 Raiders v Panthers, Canberra Stadium, 6:00pm
Round 6: Saturday, April 8 Broncos v Raiders, Lang Park, 7:35pm
Round 7: Sunday, April 16 Raiders v Dragons, Canberra Stadium, 2:00pm
Round 8: Bye
Round 9: Saturday, April 29 Raiders v Dolphins, Equex Centre, Wagga, 3:00pm
Round 10: Friday, May 5 Bulldogs v Raiders, Lang Park, 6:00pm
Round 11: Saturday, May 13 Raiders v Eels, Canberra Stadium, 7:35pm
Round 12: Sunday, May 21 Raiders v Sea Eagles, Canberra Stadium, 4:05pm*
Round 13: Saturday, May 27 Rabbitohs v Raiders, Stadium Australia, 7:35pm
Round 14: Friday, June 2 Wests Tigers v Raiders, Campbelltown Stadium, 8:00pm*
Round 15: Friday, June 9 Raiders v Warriors, Canberra Stadium, 6:00pm
Round 16: Bye
Round 17: Sunday, June 25 Roosters v Raiders, Sydney Football Stadium, 6:15pm
Round 18: Saturday, July 1 Raiders v Titans, Canberra Stadium, 3:00pm
Round 19: Friday, July 7 Dragons v Raiders, Wollongong Stadium, 8:00pm*
Round 20: Bye
Round 21: Friday, July 21 Warriors v Raiders, Mt Smart Stadium, 6:00pm
Round 22: Saturday, July 29 Raiders v Knights, Canberra Stadium, 3:00pm
Round 23: Sunday, August 6 Raiders v Tigers, Canberra Stadium, 4:05pm*
Round 24: Sunday, August 13 Storm v Raiders, Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, 2:00pm
Round 25: Sunday, August 20 Raiders v Bulldogs, Canberra Stadium, 4:05pm*
Round 26: Saturday, August 26 Raiders v Broncos, Canberra Stadium, 7:35pm*
Round 27: Sunday, September 3 Sharks v Raiders, Shark Park, 4:05pm*

* FTA TV matches broadcast on Nine.

The verdict

Predicted finish: Edge of the eight

My ratings of the squad last week averaged out at a "B". That translates into a top eight, but not a top four, finish. The depth in some positions is a bit thin, in particular at fullback and in the back row. The Raiders presently rank ninth in the betting futures market. I'd like to think that is a bit pessimistic, but it is probably not wildly off the mark either. Whatever happens, as always, it should be a great ride.



Plus follow us on Facebook: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders

[Billy Walker]

A bit disappointing if I’m honest. The building blocks are there but hard to make a case that 2023 is shaping up to be our year. Fringe of the 8 is a good prediction GE. Hope we are both wrong but I fear if we are it’s more likely we end up the bottom end than the pointy end. Disappointing!

[BadnMean]

Every season is full of surprises.

And begins with a bit of hope.

The old excitement stirring.

[Billy Walker]

Every season is full of surprises.

And begins with a bit of hope.

The old excitement stirring.

Yeah always looking forward to see what happens but it would be nice to go into a season feeling it’s genuinely our year. I don’t think anyone if feeling like this is our year and that kind of sucks.

[Rick]

Yeah exactly. I see room for improvement from last year but nothing is filling me with confidence to be able to get to the next level.

On paper the sides in the mid pack are improving whilst we have sat stagnant.

On thing that was not mentioned above was the NSW Cup side. I would argue that plays a huge part of how this year goes. That side needs to be having a red hot go at winning it to really put pressure on our 17. Too often they appear to be playing as individuals and not getting the results they should be.

The better they go as a team the more pressure there will be from the likes of Ata, Trey , Schiller, HSS, Schneider, Saulo, Hola etc. those guys as a collective need to be killing it to give each other the best chance of breaking through.

Too often last year they looked disinterested and did not perform.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hong Kong Raider]

Did anyone at the beginning of 2016 or 2019 thought it was our year? New halfback in Sezer in 2016. New fullback in CNK in 2019. That was the closest we have gotten in 28 years. I thought we would go close to winning in 2021 at the start of the season and most commentators picked us to be top 4 (with Hodgson fit again, Horse and Guler back from injury, George Williams' second year in the NRL), look where that got us.

Savage, Timoko, Kris, Woolford, Fogarty need to continue to improve and play out of their skins this year for us to have a chance of making the top 4. Wighton needs to be one of the top 5 players in the league.

Young players like Ata Mariota and Saulo need to step up and come through. What happened to Hola?

There's so much upside in Savage. He can be our best player this year.

[gangrenous]

Every season is full of surprises.

And begins with a bit of hope.

The old excitement stirring.

Few too many syllables there in your Haiku BnM, but there’s talent there we can work with!

[BadnMean]

Every season is full of surprises.

And begins with a bit of hope.

The old excitement stirring.

Few too many syllables there in your Haiku BnM, but there’s talent there we can work with!

I think there's actually a lot more forms than just the old 5-7-5 we are most familiar with as a Haiku in the west. But I'm still not sure it fits any of the others

[greeneyed]

Ev’ry season is full

And begins with hope anew

Excitement, stirring.

[gangrenous]

[Billy Walker]

Did anyone at the beginning of 2016 or 2019 thought it was our year?

You do know they aren’t premiership years right?

[greeneyed]

Through green eyes: As I saw it



2023 Preseason Challenge Round 2. Wests Tigers 36 - Canberra Raiders 4. "It's only a trial. It's only a trial. It's only a trial." That's the mantra I keep repeating to myself, in the hope I might convince... myself. As I wrote last week, if there is one thing we know about Ricky Stuart it is this: he doesn't like trial matches. At best he treats them with ambivalence. Disdain or the old "necessary evil" is probably more accurate. And that's the attitude the Canberra Raiders squad seemed to bring to Belmore Sports Ground this afternoon. Ambivalence. They again looked very flat. The entire squad.

Personally, I'd rather see the team "trial well" - to show some evidence of the things that the squad has been working on over the preseason. To see whether the new fitness regimes have had an impact. To see whether the attacking and defensive structures have improved. Even if it is just for 40 minutes, the time that the top squad is put on the park. But we didn't really see any evidence of that.



In saying that, there are things that need to be recognised. First, the broken jaw suffered by Xavier Savage last weekend has thrown the plans of the Raiders' brains trust into disarray. Savage will be sidelined for the first six weeks of the season. And while there seems to have been plenty of players spending time at fullback in preseason training, there are few options to replace the X-man.

So it's understandable that Ricky Stuart wants to see how a variety of players might go in the job. He'd picked the experienced Jordan Rapana in the No. 1 jersey for this match, but he didn't start there. Stuart knows what the veteran can do in that spot. So he decided to play Sebastian Kris at fullback in the first 40 today - shifting Jordan Rapana back to his regular spot on the wing and Harley Smith-Shields to centre. The level of disruption is high and there's experimentation still happening.

Second, it was a hot summer day at Belmore, with the match kicking off at around 3:00pm. Those are difficult conditions in which to perform and the Raiders didn't seem to handle the heat well. But it was hot for both teams. And, by the way, it's going to be hot when the Raiders play the Cowboys and Dolphins in Queensland in the opening rounds. It doesn't augur well for the start of the season.

Third, the Raiders sent out their "B team" at the start of the second half. The Tigers, however, kept their key players on the field. Five eighth Adam Douehi, who was the Tigers' dominant play maker, was not replaced until fairly late in the second half. The Tigers led by only 10-4 at half time. But for Jordan Rapana's sin binning late in the first half, the teams might have gone into the sheds at one try apiece. However, in the second half Douehi orchestrated a heap of points against the Raiders "B team". As with the Dogs last week, the new coaching regime at the Wests Tigers, headed by Tim Sheens, had more incentive to "trial well".

So there are reasons why we should not over-react to today's loss. But I still thought it was a very disappointing performance from Canberra. In the first half, the Raiders had plenty of opportunity in the red zone, but they looked disorganised in attack. It seems that new recruit Danny Levi has won the race to be the starting hooker - but the "A team" spine looks rusty, even allowing for the fact that Kris was drafted in late. All up, the error count was too high and the missed tackle count was too high. The discipline was poor. At times, it looked like the "Keystone Kops" in the second half. Some of the handling and defensive errors had an element of comedy. And that's a problem - because club and fans have pinned a lot of hope on some of those "B team" players stepping up into the top 17.

The match review committee is going to be looking at two incidents involving Jordan Rapana. He was put on report for a high tackle on Asu Kepaoa in the 10th minute, and then sin binned in the 32nd minute after his shoulder made contact with the head of Adam Douehi. Neither looked too serious, the second looked more like an accident than anything. But Rapana's tackles go wrong too often, he has priors, and he could be in some trouble. And that might mean that Stuart's options at fullback for Round 1 become even more limited. Kris didn't really stand out in the role. Albert Hopoate (two errors) wasn't shouting "pick me" either.

I remain to be convinced about Danny Levi at starting hooker, but he did look better there this week, despite a couple of errors. He backed up very well to score the Raiders' only try of the game. Time will tell I guess. My concerns about the lack of depth in the backrow haven't been allayed. I'll write more about the Round 1 team selections later in the week. There are some tough choices ahead for coach Ricky Stuart.

Stats that mattered: The Tigers had a 59 per cent share of possession - and had the ball for nine more minutes than the Raiders. Canberra completed at just 54 per cent, completing 19 of 35 sets. The Tigers posted an 86 per cent completion rate. Canberra made 18 errors (Tigers nine) and gave up seven penalties (Tigers four). You all know what they say about football games and the ball. Wests produced more runs (203-141), running metres (1718-1115), post contact metres (467-315), offloads (18-10), line breaks (5-1) and tackle breaks (40-26). They made almost 500 kicking metres from 23 kicks as well (Raiders 347 from 18 kicks).

The Raiders had to do a lot more tackling (353-272 for tackles made) - but they missed a whopping 40 and conceded 28 ineffective tackles. The Tigers missed 26 tackles and posted 15 ineffective tackles. The effective tackle rates were not too different (Tigers 87 per cent, Raiders 84 per cent). But those missed tackles from Canberra, the offloads conceded, the errors, provided plenty of opportunity for the Tigers.

That's a disappointing set of numbers.

Memorable moments: The try to Danny Levi was terrific. The kick ahead from Cotric very good. But it was essentially the only time that the Raiders looked like they had "clicked".

Best performers:

Top tacklers: Pasami Saulo (30), Ata Mariota (30), Tom Starling (29), Corey Harawira-Naera (26), Emre Guler (25), Hudson Young (24)
Most metres gained: Matthew Timoko (112), Nick Cotric (89), Jamal Fogarty (71), Joe Tapine (67)

Average minutes were obviously lower than in the regular season, but no forward came close to 100 metres gained. The Tigers pack was very clearly the stronger of the two. Some of the young Canberra forwards, however, did put their hand up in defence.

As mentioned last week, I won't award player ratings for the trials. We'll start with those in Round 1 of the season proper.



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[Billy Walker]

2 from 2 GE - spot on analysis. Interesting to see Saulo’s tackle numbers. I thought he was well involved in attack but not threatening. Noting the work he did in defence I think he’s done enough for a week 1 call up to the 17.

[greeneyed]

Through green eyes: One week to go
UPDATED



The 2023 NRL season kicks off in one week's time. And there must remain a good deal of uncertainty in the mind of coach Ricky Stuart about the make up of his Round 1 team to meet the North Queensland Cowboys in Townsville.

The biggest conundrum Stuart faces is at fullback. A broken jaw for Xavier Savage has brought home how thin the club's depth is in the position. The other big questions are: 'Who starts at hooker?' and 'Who starts at lock?'.

Last weekend's trial defeat at the hands of the 2022 wooden spooners, the Wests Tigers, might have helped the coach rule some options out, and rule others in. But the unfortunate thing about the Raiders' performance last Sunday was that few players produced a match which shouted "pick me".

Stuart made some late changes prior to Sunday's match which aimed to help him make a call on Savage's replacement. Jordan Rapana had been selected in the No. 1 jersey. However, on game day, Stuart switched Sebastian Kris to fullback, while Jordan Rapana went back to his usual wing spot and Harley Smith-Shields moved to centre. They played in those positions for the first 40 minutes of the game. Well, Rapana would have if he hadn't been sin binned in the 33rd minute.

At fullback, Kris made five runs for 43 metres gained and posted one tackle break and passed twice from seven receipts. He held down the spot and made no major errors. He didn't threaten in attack either. Kris has reportedly been training in the role in the preseason, along with other back ups. But he didn't really show he was the pea for the pod.

Jordan Rapana has filled in at fullback before, often admirably. But fullback is a tough job for a veteran. Fullbacks run all day, sweeping in defence and attack - and are expected to make an impact on kick returns. For some while, I've not been sure Rapana has the legs for that any longer. And as it turns out, Rapana is certain he doesn't. He has now gone on the public record saying that he doesn't want to replace Savage at fullback and would prefer to stay on the wing.

"I won't be playing fullback. My legs are too old for that. It's off the cards," Rapana has told The Canberra Times.

"I can go back and help, but I've made it very known to Stick that I'm a winger. I'm 33 now. We've got a lot of young talent. Seb's been training there, but there's plenty of options. I'm happy to swap here and there to help him out if needed."

Fortunately, Rapana will be available for Round 1, after he escaped with a fine for high contact on Adam Douehi at Belmore. But Stuart still finds himself in a real bind. Albert Hopoate and Elijah Anderson had unhappy games on Sunday in the second half. Both produced two errors. Stuart either has to convince Rapana to have one last hurrah at fullback (lasting six weeks), or slot in Kris.

Either way, it can be expected Harley Smith-Shields will back fill for Rapana or Kris in the three quarter line. He was fairly quiet his first game back from an ACL injury. But that's to be expected. He'll take a bit of time to get back into the swing of things.

It looks like new recruit Danny Levi has won the race to the No. 9 jersey. Stuart selected him in the starting role in both trials. I though Zac Woolford looked the better of the two in the first trial against the Bulldogs. The team just looked like it "clicked" when he was on the field. As it did right through the back half of last season. However Woolford was relegated to the NSW Cup trial against the Tigers at Wilton last weekend. I'm not sure why he seems to be out of favour. Maybe he didn't hit the benchmarks expected in preseason. I'd still pick Woolford for Round 1 myself.

But Levi was improved at Belmore, and helped start and then finish the Raiders' only try of the game. It was the one time in the game that the team looked like a well oiled Green Machine. I expect Levi will get the nod for Round 1, with Tom Starling at No. 14. I'm not sure a Levi-Starling hooking duo is going to last for long. They are similar players, with similar deficiencies in their passing game. Starling didn't have the best of matches last weekend - and in my view, both Woolford and Levi looked better in the trials. At least there is competition for spots at hooker, even though all three have some limitations.

Joe Tapine was the surprise selection at No. 13 for the second trial. It is not because he can't play at lock. He's played 50 odd games there, including seven for New Zealand. That's where Raiders assistant Michael Maguire picked him for the Kiwis in last year's World Cup. It was a surprise because he was Dally M Prop of the Year in 2022. He had his best season ever in the front row last year.

The problem for Ricky Stuart is he has plenty of middles and not many options for the back row. The club doesn't really have a "new fashioned" lock, who is mobile and can ball play. Tapine does have a great offload, though, and can play long minutes. So I can see why he might start 2023 with the No. 13 on his back. The other option, Corey Horsburgh, had unfortunate games in both trials. He's been developing an offload, but he still struggles to work out when to throw one, and when not to. He produced too many critical errors. He's in the top 17 in my view, but as a bench prop.

Worryingly, it seems the plan is to have Elliott Whitehead spend some minutes at lock. I'd have thought last year showed that was not the best spot for the veteran. But it underlines how thin the backrow options are. I still like the idea of developing Trey Mooney into a lock. He didn't produce his best in the trials. One reason is he was selected at second row for the first Preseason Challenge game. I can't see him being selected in the top squad for Round 1 - but hopefully, the club will be aiming to develop him at lock in NSW Cup.

I took a stab at predicting the Round 1 line up last week. It is a tough exercise as coach Ricky Stuart often seems to come up with a left field selection. Sometimes they work, as it did with Nick Cotric. Other times, not. Last year, Semi Valemei was trialled at right centre - and while he wasn't selected there in Round 1, he spent plenty of time in that role in the early season games. That's a selection that didn't work. In any case, here's my adjusted, predicted Round 1 Raiders team.



Predicted Round 1 line up: 1. Sebastian Kris 2. Nick Cotric 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Harley Smith-Shields 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Danny Levi 10. Emre Guler 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Joseph Tapine

14. Tom Starling 15. Corey Harwaria-Naera 16. Ata Mariota 17. Corey Horsburgh

A few things to note. I had convinced myself that Rapana would be selected at fullback, given how the second trial unfolded. Rapana's public comments put an entirely different complexion on the matter. I'm now going with Kris in the No. 1 jersey, with he and Rapana swapping if need be. That puts Harley Smith-Shields into his best position, at centre. I can't say I like the idea of swapping players around during matches. It adds an undesirable level of complexity. And it is best to give footy players simplicity and certainty.

I expect Emre Guler to take over at starting prop should Tapine be selected at lock, but I don't think he made a huge impact in the trials. I was more impressed with Ata Mariota and Pasami Saulo. Saulo exceeded my expectations. He's the other player most likely to force his way into the top 17. Another player to impress was Hohepa Puru, a young lock recruited from the Panthers. He's not big, but he showed a lot of heart.

****

The Canberra Raiders junior representative teams have spent the first three rounds of their competitions on the road. They now play their first home games of the season at Kippax this Saturday. The SG Ball and Harold Matthews sides are undefeated - and they play in top of the table clashes with the Western Suburbs Magpies. Last weekend, all three teams won against the Sea Eagles at Brookvale. That's the first time I can remember that happening since the introduction of the Tarsha Gale Cup. These matches are the only way to get your footy fix this weekend. So get out to Raiders Belconnen and see some of the exciting prospects coming through the grades for yourselves! Games kick off from 11:00am.





Plus follow us on Facebook: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders

[Billy Walker]

A good write up with the exception of the thinly veiled Levi hate. I’m telling you get on the Danny L train, he’s going to be very very good for us!

[RedRaider]

Any side with Elvis in it, is going to rock. I can't wait for the match report on how No.20 went for the Raiders.

[greeneyed]

In light of Rapana’s blunt public statements saying he has told the coach he doesn’t want to play fullback… as he doesn’t have the legs… I’ve done a backflip on the predicted Round 1 line up. Updated column above.


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[greeneyed]

Any side with Elvis in it, is going to rock. I can't wait for the match report on how No.20 went for the Raiders.

He goes well. Serious forward.

[Rick]

How is Stick supposed to pull the smokescreen now that Rapana has come out and said this.


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[The Nickman]

I’m genuinely surprised Fergus actually needed Rapana to come out and say this… is was painfully obvious to the rest of us that Kris was playing at the back in Round 1.

[RedRaider]

In light of Rapana’s blunt public statements saying he has told the coach he doesn’t want to play fullback… as he doesn’t have the legs… I’ve done a backflip on the predicted Round 1 line up. Updated column above.

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Rapa has come off a very good RLWC which included him as the Kiwi goal kicker and then needed knee surgery. I have no doubt that the injury/s have been a factor. I remain a Rapa fan and look forward to watching him on the wing as we have done for the majority of his time with the Raiders. He will give everything he has to give, for his team. It's the way he plays. He knows no other way and this fan both admires and respects him for it.