The Politics Thread 2023

[gangrenous]

Another year, another thread.

Interesting to see how the NSW election goes. Would have expected Liberals to be pretty vulnerable having been in for a while, ugly battles with the unions, and losing leaders to corruption clouds.

But I think the general sentiment is that they did well through COVID and infrastructure programs. Combine that with Labor weak or opposing good policies in the current media (pokie reform and housing/stamp duty) and I think it may be quite close, probably a Liberal win?

[Boomercm]

NSW Libs have done a very good job for a long time imo. I think they have done well because they act like a business, they support small business, and the moderates are the most powerful faction (Perrotet had to deal with the powerful moderate faction to take the job)

Having said this, I think Chris Minns is the best Labor leader for some time. Quite like his manner and approach.

Will be an interesting election.

[Dr Zaius]

I've been pleasantly surprised by Dom. Was not loving his appointment, but he's been rather pragmatic. I like the cooperation that his government and the Victorian government have had on several occasions. Not so pleasantly surprised by the Nazi outfit...

[bonehead]

I've been pleasantly surprised by Dom. Was not loving his appointment, but he's been rather pragmatic. I like the cooperation that his government and the Victorian government have had on several occasions. Not so pleasantly surprised by the Nazi outfit...

yeah I'm not a massive fan but he's been respectable and if he keeps trying to buy my support I'm happy to continue taking what's given

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[greeneyed]

This doesn’t surprise me given all that’s happened in NSW. The splintering vote might make majority government difficult.

[BJ]

Dear Daily Telegraph, What’s the deal with these Nazi hating NSW voters?

I’ve yet to hear of a single atrocity by a man wearing a Nazi uniform.

Name withheld
Argentina

[-PJ-]

Congrats to Shaun Pollock, NZs new prime minister.

[gangrenous]

Where’s Mickey? I’m curious if he is still gung ho about MMT in the new inflated world.

[Mickey_Raider]

Where’s Mickey? I’m curious if he is still gung ho about MMT in the new inflated world.

If your question is whether I have a much sharper understanding of different inflationary forces, ie the distinction between supply side and demand side inflation after studying so called MMT economists, the answer is absolutely.

That’s not your question though is it.

Apologies too in advance for again infecting this thread with my uninteresting and unoriginal posts.

[BJ]

Where’s Mickey? I’m curious if he is still gung ho about MMT in the new inflated world.

If your question is whether I have a much sharper understanding of different inflationary forces, ie the distinction between supply side and demand side inflation after studying so called MMT economists, the answer is absolutely.

That’s not your question though is it.

Apologies too in advance for again infecting this thread with my uninteresting and unoriginal posts.

It’s funny, I was just at catch-up drinks with some old Treasury work buddies of whom three used to be strong MMT proponents.

One is still “all for MMT”, one is at “it needs some major tweaks”, the other says “MMT is dead”.

The other three of us completely ignored them and talked about Michael Clarke and the great IPA’s we have in Canberra now. I’m not totally sure their heated public discussion in Bentspoke didn’t trigger our hilarious Michael Clarke chat. So that might be a positive benefit for MMT.

[gangrenous]

Where’s Mickey? I’m curious if he is still gung ho about MMT in the new inflated world.

If your question is whether I have a much sharper understanding of different inflationary forces, ie the distinction between supply side and demand side inflation after studying so called MMT economists, the answer is absolutely.

That’s not your question though is it.

Apologies too in advance for again infecting this thread with my uninteresting and unoriginal posts.

Just lightly yanking your chain. I enjoy the discussions on the topic

Was curious about whether the current climate had modified your view on MMT. Are the inflation risks understated?

Thoughts on the approach the RBA should be taking this year? Should they be slowing rises because demand side is adequately stomped and will continue to ramp through fixed loan periods ending, with supply the main cause plus hangover spending from depressed COVID periods? Is there more room yet to stomp demand? Do they need to keep rising to control it regardless of source?

[Mickey_Raider]

Anyone have any interesting opinions on the debates around superannuation currently playing out?

There seem to be several premises being tested atm.

1. Whether tax concessions on super balances should be capped at 3/4/5 million

2. Whether the purpose of super should be enshrined in law.

3. Whether super funds should be encouraged/obligated/nudged to invest in harmony with desired social outcomes.

[gangrenous]

1. Yes, although it should be indexed so we don’t just bracket creep everyone into this.

2. Not too sure what this will achieve practically?

3. Can’t see how this works practically. Surely it is better to set incentives and disincentives more broadly to make these investments more attractive to everyone, not just super funds? Easier said than done of course.

[Boomercm]

1. an obvious yes for me, and indexed as noted above. A typical Labor suggestion from their useful bag of tricks
2. a typical Labor suggestion from their useless bag of tricks
3. This sounds too self-righteous for Labor, is it a Greens suggestion? I mean, if it is popular enough to be politically tenable then markets will drive it anyway. Which I think they are - recently, Ethical super is one of the better performing funds from memory.

[Mickey_Raider]

1. Yes, although it should be indexed so we don’t just bracket creep everyone into this.

counterargument: as a polity we are so scared to enact anything that even vaguely approaches an actual reform that any policy suggestion needs to be capped, tapered, grandfathered, indexed etc so as to dull it’s actual effect.

If it is not indexed, the effect is something like 10% of people by the middle of the century cross a threshold whereby they still claim a tax concession, it just isn’t as big as it used to be when they merely had 2.5 million in their super.

Communism i tells ya. Radical.

[greeneyed]

If $3 million is the correct figure now, then surely it should be indexed? Otherwise, win the debate on what they actually think the figure should be. Or is the unspoken intention to wind back the concession for very large numbers of people over time?

[gangrenous]

Precisely GE!

However Mickey you’re not going to find me clutching my pearls demanding they don’t do it if it’s not indexed. It’s hard to think it would remain unadjusted for 30 years, and if it did the forecast is still only to ping the 10%.

But the clear best answer is to index it.

[gangrenous]

The most disappointing thing about this proposal is the pushback it’s getting in the media and from the LNP. How can we get proper reform when the obvious easy little stuff faces such opposition.

I watched Insiders and Angus Taylor never ceases to be a blight on our country. Complete **** who never ceases arguing in bad faith.

[Sid]

A bit insensitive to bring this topic up here when our very own GE is one of the 17 Aussies with $100M+ in Super

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[gangrenous]

I will not be silenced Sid! No matter who it impacts!



Except if there’s a healthy bribe.


Or even a modest one.


Ok, I’ll shut up for $5 and coke

[papabear]

The 30 percent tax on super balances over 3m isn’t a bad idea and probably warranted a few things though, based on how it is proposed:-
1- currently the super fund remits the tax (15percent) as it stands the the new tax has it levied against the tax power. I.e ur balance goes up 1m the tax payer pays 150k through his income tax return. Ridiculous.
2- it still appears to tax unrealised gains. Ie farmer has his farm in super, capital value of his farm goes from 3m to 4m through a super fund audit - he’s gotta come up with 150k even though he hasn’t made one red cent.
Absolutely bikers we have never ever taxed unrealised gains.
3- he sells farm to pay this new terribly implemented tax gets hit with CGT and pays tax again (double tax) on the same gain.

The simple solution is to index the 3m and then change the current law to up the rate the super fund pays to 30 percent over the threshold. If this law goes through as is the sentiment from business being neutral / positive to labor will just go down the drain it is a **** disaster poorly thought out. I am hoping that this **** version of the tax is just a red herring to do a deal with the libs on a proper working version of it.

As for Mickey and the MMT since thinking about this tax has me in a poor mood for communists - I am going to be direct. You were stupid back then now it is just abundantly clear how stupid you were. Go and baptise yourself in a job.

[papabear]

Also Paul Keating being a Chinese apologist bitch is a bit sad.

Who would of thought that john Howard would age better then Keating.

[Mickey_Raider]

As for Mickey and the MMT since thinking about this tax has me in a poor mood for communists - I am going to be direct. You were stupid back then now it is just abundantly clear how stupid you were. Go and baptise yourself in a job.

Oh dear. We are doing the communist thing are we.

Look, if you go back and pore through some of the discussions on here you will see there are some pretty decent and at times nuanced debates about economic theories such as QTM, the properties of fiat money and the role and appropriate level of taxation, and monetary policy.

If your reaction to such is to scream “communism!” and to go ad hominem on me, well, I’d say you are just diminishing yourself mate.

Go baptise yourself in a job indeed

[papabear]

ad hominem is all that is left when you see inflation demolishing the money printing countries and even hitting the USD whose value comes from being the universal currency.

Think about that.... the dollar everyone needs to trade cross borders is suffering from inflation from its money printing.

Tell me of an economy that money printed its way out of problems?

[Mickey_Raider]

Sorry for my delay in response Paps, I have been baptising myself in my gainful employment.

Respectfully old chap I think you should go back and actually have a read of the particulars of the debate. It is like you just did a control f and somewhere along the line extrapolated that I heart money printing.

[Mickey_Raider]

In other news, how good are the Liberals going?!

I remember the good old days of this chat circa 3 years ago when it looked like progressive Australia had been humbled forever.

How times change.

[Dr Zaius]

The scary thing is people like Credlin still think that the answer is to lurch further to the right.

In other news, it's nice to see a bit of respect back amongst our politicians. Both candidates from the by-election spoke well of each other. The NSW campaign was very civilised and Perrottet was class in his praise of Minns in his concession speech.

[gangrenous]

In other news, how good are the Liberals going?!

I remember the good old days of this chat circa 3 years ago when it looked like progressive Australia had been humbled forever.

How times change.

The last part is what concerns me. People have short memories, and we need a longer period without the LNP close to power in its present form.

In other news, it's nice to see a bit of respect back amongst our politicians. Both candidates from the by-election spoke well of each other. The NSW campaign was very civilised and Perrottet was class in his praise of Minns in his concession speech.

Hear hear. I hope the NSW Liberals don’t get the wrong message from their loss. I can easily see them back in power next election. They had some solid policy. The rest of the LNP just seem to be a dumpster fire.

[Mickey_Raider]

In other news, how good are the Liberals going?!

I remember the good old days of this chat circa 3 years ago when it looked like progressive Australia had been humbled forever.

How times change.

The last part is what concerns me. People have short memories, and we need a longer period without the LNP close to power in its present form.

In other news, it's nice to see a bit of respect back amongst our politicians. Both candidates from the by-election spoke well of each other. The NSW campaign was very civilised and Perrottet was class in his praise of Minns in his concession speech.

Hear hear. I hope the NSW Liberals don’t get the wrong message from their loss. I can easily see them back in power next election. They had some solid policy. The rest of the LNP just seem to be a dumpster fire.

Because I am an election nerd I have been listening to quite a lot of Barry/Samaras (former liberal/labor pollster/strategist/demographers) lately.

They provide some fascinating data and insights which suggest that there is something more structural going on in our politics at the moment.

Not to say we have reached the “end of history” but their conclusions collectively seem to be that there are some forces at work which aren’t merely cyclical.

For example, it shouldn’t be that surprising to anyone that a structural decline in home ownership is corresponding with a decline in people making the hitherto time honoured shift to conservatism as they age.

[Dr Zaius]

The LNP are a long, long way off being electable federally, but state politics is a different beast, and people are generally savvy enough to separate the two. By all accounts the Victorian liberals are dumpster fire of awfulness. But I won't be suprised if an LNP government gets up in the next round of state elections.

[gangrenous]

They should be a long, long way off being electable. But that should have been the case in 2019 too.

I’m not sure that some tough times for a few years mightn’t still see them back just for a change.

[-TW-]

They should be a long, long way off being electable. But that should have been the case in 2019 too.

I’m not sure that some tough times for a few years mightn’t still see them back just for a change.

If Labor had anyone who wasn't Bill Shorten as leader they piss that in, he's as unlikable as Dutton is currently

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[gangrenous]

Shorten had constructive policy behind him though. I’d also argue ScoMo had shown himself for what he was if you were scrutinising as close as Shorten, and I assume their popularity is quite similar these days having made it obvious. Shouldn’t have been the difference imo.

Dutton is the trifecta of disliked, no constructive policy, and a wrecker opposing things for opposing sake.

[zim]

Is there a worse choice they could have made for leader than Dutton?

[Mickey_Raider]

Is there a worse choice they could have made for leader than Dutton?

Yes.

Mark Latham