Canberra Raiders V Newcastle Knights
Sunday 21 August, 4:05pm
Hunter Stadium
Gates open: 1:15pm
NSW Cup: Canberra Raiders V Newcastle Knights, 1:30pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Shower or two, clearing. Partly cloudy. Medium (40 per cent) chance of showers, clearing during the afternoon. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light in the early afternoon. Chance of any rain: 50 per cent Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm Min 10 Max 19
The Canberra Raiders are still in the hunt for a top eight place. But they're in the position that they must keep winning. Every week. In Round 23, they head to the Hunter Valley for a clash with the 14th placed Knights. It's a game they should win. But the Raiders often struggle in those sorts of games.
Last round: Canberra Raiders 24 - St George Illawarra Dragons 22. It was a very Raiders way to win. They led 18-12 at half time, and took a 12 point lead two minutes into the second half. But that was the end of the scoring for the Green Machine. In the final stages, the Dragons scored two tries to draw within two points. And only some desperate, last gasp defence secured the Canberra win.
Team news: Joe Tapine (ribs) has been named to take his place at starting prop. Emre Guler drops to the bench, with Ryan Sutton surprisingly dropping out of the top 17. Nick Cotric returns on the wing, after serving a one week suspension, replacing Albert Hopoate.
The Knights have stood down centre Bradman Best and winger Enari Tuala from this match for disciplinary reasons - after they missed a team bus in Brisbane last week. Krystian Mapapalangi will make his NRL debut in place of best, while Edrick Lee comes in on the wing. Prop David Klemmer (knee) has been named at starting prop. Jacob Saifiti shifts to lock, with Matt Croker dropping to the bench. Sauaso Sue has been named at 18th man.
Late changes: On Saturday afternoon, both teams left their top 17 unchanged. The Raiders retained Albert Hopoate and Ata Matiota on their reserves list. The Knights designated Oryn Keely as likely 18th man, with Sauaso Sue also retained on the extended bench.
History: Canberra has a good record against Newcastle, winning 28 of 53 games, with two draws. But they've had some troubles lately. The Raiders have won four and drawn one match in the last 10 clashes - and only two of the past five. In 2020, the Raiders suffered a disappointing 34-18 loss to Newcastle, in a Round 4 home game transferred to Campbelltown. There was more disappointment for the Raiders in Round 9 last year, losing to the Knights, 24-16, at Wagga Wagga. Then in Round 20, the Knights won, 34-24, in a game transferred to Lang Park and played behind closed doors due to the pandemic.
In Round 15 at Canberra Stadium this year, the Raiders led 14-0 after 25 minutes, before the Knights staged a comeback. An Edrick Lee try in the 65th minute saw the visitors go to an 18-14 lead. Hudson Young saved the day, scoring a try with just two minutes remaining - and the conversion from Jamal Fogarty sealed the 20-18 win.
The Raiders have won just eight of 23 games played against the Knights at Hunter Stadium, drawing one. The Green Machine has not played in Newcastle since 2017, a match they lost 34-20. The Raiders have won twice and drawn one in the past five games played between the clubs at the venue.
2022 Round 15: Canberra Raiders V Newcastle Knights
2021 Round 20: Canberra Raiders V Newcastle Knights
2021 Round 9: Canberra Raiders V Newcastle Knights
2020 Round 4: Canberra Raiders V Newcastle Knights
Form: Raiders: LWWWL
Knights: LLLWL
The Knights are coming off a 28-10 loss to the Brisbane Broncos at Lang Park. They broke a four game losing streak with a 14-10 victory over the Wests Tigers in Round 21. But they've also suffered recent losses to the Bulldogs (24-10), Roosters (42-12) and Sea Eagles (42-12).
Betting: The Raiders are $1.31 favourites, with the Knights paying $3.50. The Knights have 10.5 points start in the line betting. Canberra's odds have shortened since the market opened.
Stat attack: This is a clash between ninth (Raiders) and 14th (Knights) on the ladder. Neither team has the best of attacking records. But only the Tigers have scored fewer tries than Newcastle. The Knights are last for line breaks (Raiders 13th) and second last for tackle breaks (Raiders seventh). The Raiders do have a clearer advantage in defence, however. Only the Warriors have conceded more tries than Newcastle and are in the top four teams for running metres conceded. Discipline is a problem for Canberra. The Raiders rank fifth for most errors and second for most penalties conceded.
2022 Season record: Raiders 11 and 10 (9th, -31)
Knights 6 and 15 (14th, -252)
Attack: Raiders 19 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked equal 10th on tries scored
Knights 15 points and 3 tries scored per match, 15th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 20 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked equal sixth for fewest tries conceded
Knights 27 points and 5 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 14th for fewest tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Knights 49 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 75 per cent, Knights 76 per cent
Running: Raiders 1460 running metres per match
Knights 1434 running metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Knights 24 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Knights 3 per match
Try assists: Raiders 2, Knights 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 12, Knights 9 per match
Kicking: Raiders 507 kicking metres per match
Knights 530 kicking metres per match
Tackling: Raiders 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Knights 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1338 running metres conceded per match
Knights 1481 running metres conceded per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Knights 10 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Knights 6 per match
Key match-ups:
Jordan Rapana and Edrick Lee. Jordan Rapana returned to the Raiders' wing last weekend, and showed why the veteran still has what it takes. He scored a try and made 136 running metres. It was only his second four pointer of the year, but he does plenty of hard work early in each set. He's got three try assists, four line breaks, 54 tackle breaks, and averaged 126 running metres. He has, unfortunately, missed a bit of footy through suspension this year. He's up against former Raiders winger Edrick Lee this week. Lee replaces Enari Tuala, who has been dropped for disciplinary reasons, along with centre Bradman Best. Lee has made 13 appearances in 2022, producing 11 tries, three try assists, 10 line breaks, 40 tackle breaks and 131 average running metres. Rapana has the edge in defence (81 per cent tackle efficiency, Lee 72 per cent). Rapana a shade in front in this match-up.
Jack Wighton and Anthony Milford. Jack Wighton has been a little inconsistent since the Origin campaign. But in 2022 he's scored three tries and posted seven try assists, 12 line break assists, 12 forced line drop outs, an average 92 running metres and 279 kicking metres per game. Anthony Milford was a star Raiders junior, but since heading to the Broncos in 2015, he's not had the impact we all thought he would. He's made 11 appearances this year, producing six try assists, five line break assists, nine forced drop outs, 85 average running metres and 300 kicking metres per game. Jack Wighton the clear winner here.
Joseph Tapine and David Klemmer. Joe Tapine returns after a week off with a rib injury. He's been by far and away the Raiders' best player of the year, so it is a big boost. He's produced two tries, 63 tackle breaks, 37 offloads, and an average of 160 running metres and 29 tackles per game. Knights prop David Klemmer has recently been involved in controversy - after allegedly abusing a Newcastle trainer and being linked to the Eels. He's returning from a knee injury. He's scored one try, made 20 tackle breaks, 29 offloads and averaged 156 running metres and 32 tackles per match. On a per game basis, the numbers for these two players are not too far apart, but Tapine is definitely in front in this match-up for mine.
My tip: The Raiders are deserved favourites in this game. The Knights have only won six games all year, and they have a hefty list of "outs", including captain Kalyn Ponga. The worrying thing is that Canberra tends to play to the level of their opponents. They should have won the match against the Dragons, well. But they barely managed to hold on for a last gasp win.
Like the Dragons, the Knights have proven to be a bit of a handful for the Raiders in recent years. The Knights now have nothing to lose, while the Raiders certainly do. That sort of game is always difficult. But given this is a "must win" for Canberra, they should be switched on. Raiders by six.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders captain Elliott Whitehead on the win over the Dragons: "We make it hard for ourselves at times. We tend to get to a lead and then let other teams come back and that's something that we need to fix looking forward but we're just happy to get the win tonight. After the week we've had, I thought the performance was really good. The win was the most important thing tonight and we got that."
Canberra Raiders
1. Xavier Savage
2. Nick Cotric
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Adam Elliott
14. Tom Starling
15. Emre Guler
16. Corey Horsburgh
17. Corey Harawira-Naera
18. Albert Hopoate
19. Ata Mariota
Injury/Suspension
Semi Valemei, Ribs (Indefinite)
Adrian Trevilyan, Shoulder (Indefinite)
Jarrod Croker, Shoulder (Season)
Harley Smith-Shields, Knee (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
Newcastle Knights
1. Tex Hoy
2. Edrick Lee
3. Dane Gagai
4. Krystian Mapapalangi
5. Dominic Young
6. Anthony Milford
7. Adam Clune
8. David Klemmer
9. Jayden Brailey
10. Daniel Saifiti
11. Tyson Frizell
12. Brodie Jones
13. Jacob Saifiti
14. Phoenix Crossland
15. Pasami Saulo
16. Simi Sasagi
17. Mathew Croker
21. Oryn Keeley
18. Sauaso Sue
Injury/Suspension
Bradman Best, Stood down (Rd 24)
Hymel Hunt, Stood down (Rd 24)
Mitch Barnett, Thumb (Rd 25)
Kurt Mann, Quad (Rd 25)
Chris Vea'ila, Leg (Indefinite)
Kalyn Ponga, Concussion (Indefinite)
Jake Clifford, Arm (Season)
Leo Thompson, Hamstring (Season)
Lachlan Fitzgibbon, Shoulder (Season)
Bailey Hodgson, Elbow (Season)
Dylan Lucas. Pectoral (Season)
Officials
Referee: Grant Atkins
Touch judges: Phil Henderson, Jon Stone
Video referee: Gerard Sutton
NRL Teams: Click here
NSW Cup teams: Click here
Jersey Flegg teams: Click here
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLKnightsRaiders
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