2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

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Who will win?

Raiders 13+
2
17%
Raiders 1-12
6
50%
Draw
0
No votes
Panthers 1-12
2
17%
Panthers 13+
2
17%
 
Total votes: 12

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greeneyed
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2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

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Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
Saturday 6 August, 5:30pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 12:30pm
NSW Cup: Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs, 12:40pm
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TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
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Weather: Shower or two. Cloudy. High (70 per cent) chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late evening. Chance of any rain: 70 per cent Possible rainfall: 1-2 mm Min 3 Max 12

In Round 21, the Green Machine heads home in Round 21 hoping for a fourth win in a row, this time against the ladder leading Panthers. A victory would have seemed highly improbable before the Penrith halves, Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai were both recently ruled out through suspension and injury. But opportunity now knocks for the Raiders.

Last round: 2022 Round 20. Canberra Raiders 36 - Gold Coast Titans 24. It was a match the Canberra Raiders had to win and they did. They scored more tries, more points, than they have all season. There were some outstanding moments in attack. But the performance was by no means perfect, particularly in defence. Four tries conceded. Even though the Titans are on the bottom of the ladder, they have some exciting attacking players. But the Raiders will have learned there are some important things to work on this week.



More on Round 20: As I saw it

Team news: Jordan Rapana returns from suspension for the Raiders, replacing Albert Hopoate on the wing. It is the only change to the top 17 from last week. Corey Horsburgh (pneumonia) has been named on the reserves list. James Schiller is out due to COVID, while Trey Mooney (ankle) is on the sidelines for another week. The Raiders have named Adam Elliott (hip), after he left the field early with injury last week.

The Panthers will be without key play maker Nathan Cleary, after he was suspended for five weeks for a nasty lifting tackle in last Friday night's clash with the Eels. Last week, five eighth Jarome Luai was also ruled out until the finals with an MCL injury. Sean O'Sullivan will take over at halfback, with Jaeman Salmon at five eighth. Centre Stephen Crichton (ear/concussion) has been included at centre. Mitch Kenny (knee) also returns on the bench.

Late changes: Raiders fullback Xavier Savage was ruled out with an ankle injury on Friday evening. He'll be replaced by Albert Hopoate. Coach Ricky Stuart said Savage had been carrying the injury for a couple of weeks, and he needs a week off to get it right. Semi Valemei will be 18th man, with Ata Mariota also retained on the reserves list.

Penrith second rower Viliame Kikau has been ruled out with a hip injury. He's been replaced in the starting team by Chris Smith. Fiji international Sunia Turuva will make his debut on the bench, with Charlie Staines dropping out.

History: The Raiders have won 37 matches against the Penrith Panthers, lost 41 and drawn one. Canberra has won just three of the past 10 clashes between the clubs, and two of the past five. The Panthers have won the last three matches straight.

In 2019, the Raiders won 30-12 in Round 8 at Wagga Wagga - at a time when the Panthers were struggling. By the time Round 19 came around the Panthers were on a seven game winning streak - and the Raiders popped their bubble, winning 30-18 at Penrith. However, the Raiders could not repeat that feat in 2020, losing 28-12 at Penrith. Canberra was victim No. 8 in a 17 game winning streak for Penrith. It was a similar story in 2021, with the Panthers winning decisively, 30-10, at home. Earlier this year, the Raiders lost again, 36-6, at Penrith.

The Raiders have won 19 of 29 matches played between the clubs at Canberra Stadium. However, the Raiders have not won at the venue against Penrith since 2016, losing the last two fixtures.


2022 Round 7 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers


2021 Round 5 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers


2020 Round 13 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers

Form: Raiders: WLWWW
Panthers: WWWWL

The Panthers were on a nine game winning streak until they were beaten by the Parramatta Eels, 34-10, at Western Sydney Stadium last Friday night. They played for much of the game with 12 men, after Nathan Cleary was sent off in the 18th minute. They have only lost twice all season, to the Eels both times.

Betting: The Panthers are $1.71 favourites, with the Raiders paying $2.15. The Raiders have 2.5 points start in the line betting. Late changes have narrowed the odds slightly .

Stat attack: This is a clash between first (Panthers) and ninth (Raiders) on the ladder. Penrith are in front of the Raiders in just about every statistical category. In some cases, by a long, long way.

The Panthers have the best completion rate in the competition and the highest possession share. They are first for running metres, kick return metres and post contact metres. They are third for line breaks and fifth for tackle breaks. The Panthers are the number two team for tries scored, and the number one team for fewest tries conceded.

The Raiders offload more than the Panthers (ranked second) and run from dummy half more (ranked third). Canberra also ranks second for handling errors and third for penalties conceded.

Joe Tapine still sits in first in the competition for post contact metres, but Penrith fullback Dylan Edwards is not far behind, ranking fourth. Edwards ranks first for total running metres, Tapine third. Tapine also ranks second for offloads, while fellow prop Josh Papalii ranks fifth. But the Panthers have their own offload expert in Viliame Kikau, who ranks equal second alongside Tapine.

So some of those statistics will matter on Saturday. But the absence of the Panthers halves puts a bit of a different complexion on the numbers.

2021 Season record: Raiders 10 and 9 (9th, -13)
Panthers 17 and 2 (1st, +294)

Attack: Raiders 19 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 10th on tries scored
Panthers 28 points and 5 tries scored per match, 2nd on tries scored

Defence: Raiders 20 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked fifth for fewest tries conceded
Panthers 12 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked 1st for fewest tries conceded

Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Panthers 53 per cent

Completion rate: Raiders 75 per cent, Panthers 81 per cent

Running: Raiders 1458 running metres per match
Panthers 1742 running metres per match

Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Panthers 32 per match

Line breaks: Raiders 4, Panthers 5 per match

Try assists: Raiders 3, Panthers 4 per match

Offloads: Raiders 12, Panthers 8 per match

Kicking: Raiders 496 kicking metres per match
Panthers 526 kicking metres per match

Tackling: Raiders 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Panthers 88 per cent tackle efficiency

Running metres conceded: Raiders 1347 running metres conceded per match
Panthers 1210 running metres conceded per match

Errors: Raiders 11, Panthers 9 per match

Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Panthers 6 per match

Key match-ups:

Albert Hopoate and Dylan Edwards: This will be Dylan Edwards' 100th NRL match and is right in his prime as a fullback. He's scored six tries and produced six try assists and eight line breaks this year. He has run an incredible 224 running metres per game. His tackle efficiency of 89 per cent is pretty good considering fullback is one of the most difficult positions in which to defend. Albert Hopoate is the late replacement for Xavier Savage at fullback. He has made just eight NRL appearances. It has taken time for him to get back to his best after serious knee injuries. But in 2022, he has been tearing it up in NSW Cup. He was averaging over 150 running metres a game in "reggies", and scored four tries against the Knights in Round 15. He made his first grade debut in green off the bench against the Storm - and has started the past two weeks. He scored a try against the Warriors and ran 170 metres against the Titans. But this match-up goes to Edwards.

Hudson Young and Liam Martin: Raiders second rower Hudson Young is in the best form of his relatively short NRL career. His attack is a real strength because he bustles. He's always looking for opportunity. In 2022, he's produced seven tries, seven line breaks, four line break assists, 20 offloads and an average 104 running metres and 31 tackles per match. After his two flick passes last weekend, he also has two try assists. For an edge player, his defence is good. He's got a tackle efficiency of 91 per cent this year. The Panthers lost Viliame Kikau on match eve (hip). That leaves Liam Martin as the Panthers' most dangerous player in the second row. He's averaged 96 running metres and 30 tackles per match. He's also scored six tries, while posting five line breaks, one line break assist and eight offloads. Young wins this match-up in my view.

Joseph Tapine and James Fisher-Harris: I keep saying that if Joe Tapine is not the best prop in the NRL right now, he's awfully close. Ricky Stuart says he has no doubt about it. In 2022, Tapine has scored two tries, and posted 62 tackle breaks, 37 offloads and an average 165 running metres and 30 tackles per game. He's been the best Raiders player this season, by a good margin. The Panthers' James Fisher-Harris was one of the Dally M Props of the Year in both 2020 and 2021. He's got two tries to his name, along with 25 tackle breaks, nine offloads, and an average 144 running metres and 30 tackles per game. Joe Tapine takes this match-up for mine.

My tip: I don't think there's any doubt that the Panthers would win this match, comfortably, if Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai were on deck. Indeed, the Panthers still could, even without their star halves. They have shown in the past that they are quite capable of winning in 2022 without key players. If the Raiders are to win, they'll need to improve on their performance against the Titans. The good news is, the Raiders tend to lift against the top teams. And Penrith are no doubt more vulnerable without Cleary and Luai. It is an opportunity the Raiders must take if they're to make the finals. And I think they can do it. Raiders by six.

What they're saying:

Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart: "I don't care who the Panthers have got playing for them and who not, and all week that'll be the talk. The beautiful thing I've got about these blokes is they won't listen to it, they don't hear it. It's just a matter of getting out there and doing what we do best. When we focus on us we play our best football."

Canberra Raiders

18. Albert Hopoate
2. Nick Cotric
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Adam Elliott

14. Tom Starling
15. Ryan Sutton
16. Emre Guler
17. Corey Harawira-Naera

22. Semi Valemei
19. Ata Mariota

Injury/Suspension

Xavier Savage, Ankle (Rd 22)
James Schiller, COVID isolation (Rd 22)
Trey Mooney, Ankle (Rd 22)
Harry Rushton, Fractured jaw (Rd 25)
Jarrod Croker, Shoulder (Season)
Harley Smith-Shields, Knee (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)

Penrith Panthers

1. Dylan Edwards
2. Taylan May
3. Izack Tago
4. Stephen Crichton
5. Brian To'o
6. Jaeman Salmon
7. Sean O'Sullivan
8. Moses Leota
9. Apisai Koroisau
10. James Fisher-Harris
20. Chris Smith
12. Liam Martin
13. Isaah Yeo

14. Mitch Kenny
15. Scott Sorensen
16. Spencer Leniu
18. Sunia Turuva

19. Matt Eisenhuth
21. Kurt Falls

Injury/Suspension

Jarome Luai, Knee (Finals)
Nathan Cleary, Suspension (Finals)

Officials

Referee: Grant Atkins
Touch judges: Liam Kennedy, David Munro
Video referee: Gerard Sutton

NRL teams: Click here
NSW Cup teams: Click here
Jersey Flegg teams: Click here

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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by -PJ- »

Any chance of a Hopo-Rapa switch ?
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Ilanraiders »

Game day!! Go the Raiders!!
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Kryptonite »

Caaaarrrn Raiders!
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by dubby »

Geez I hope we win
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Raider47 »

With results going the way they have this weekend, I get the feeling we're gonna need to go 5/5 if we want to make the 8. That'd make it 15-9 which is ludicrous but it's super tight and with our poor PD it's pretty much like another loss.

... making this a must win.
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

They look really poor on paper so we could be a chance here.
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by boydy80 »

-PJ- wrote: August 6, 2022, 6:14 am Any chance of a Hopo-Rapa switch ?
I thought the same thing.... seems to make the most logical sense.
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

boydy80 wrote: August 6, 2022, 9:14 am
-PJ- wrote: August 6, 2022, 6:14 am Any chance of a Hopo-Rapa switch ?
I thought the same thing.... seems to make the most logical sense.
Why? Rapa has never proven to be more than an average fill in at fullback and his used by date is very quickly approaching. Hoppa might be too slow or have other issues but I want to see what that looks like and decide if there is anything there or if we can put a line through him. It might be a low chance that Hoppa becomes the next great Raiders fullback but I can assure you there is no chance of Rapa being a great fullback. It’s not like we are travelling so well we shouldn’t tinker with things or try stuff. I want to see what the kids got - if it’s nothing then it’s nothing…..
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Rick »

I’m guessing they may alternate during the game to ensure they can last the 80


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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by The Greenhouse »

Welcome to our coverage of this evening's NRL clash between the Canberra Raiders and Penrith Panthers. We will have live scores in this thread from 5:30pm. Please add in your own commentary!



Here are the final teams.

Canberra Raiders

18. Albert Hopoate
2. Nick Cotric
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Adam Elliott

14. Tom Starling
15. Ryan Sutton
16. Emre Guler
17. Corey Harawira-Naera

19. Ata Mariota

Penrith Panthers

1. Dylan Edwards
2. Taylan May
3. Izack Tago
4. Stephen Crichton
5. Brian To'o
6. Jaeman Salmon
7. Sean O'Sullivan
8. Moses Leota
9. Apisai Koroisau
10. James Fisher-Harris
20. Chris Smith
12. Liam Martin
13. Isaah Yeo

14. Mitch Kenny
15. Scott Sorensen
16. Spencer Leniu
18. Sunia Turuva

19. Matt Eisenhuth
Last edited by The Greenhouse on August 6, 2022, 4:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Good weather to be indoors. Panthers won’t be loving the cold grey blustery conditions. Jack’s high balls will be a nightmare to handle.
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by raiderskater »

Going to need you all who will be there to be yelling twice as loud for me.

...yes, I'm still sulking about having COVID and not being allowed to go.
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

raiderskater wrote: August 6, 2022, 11:06 am Going to need you all who will be there to be yelling twice as loud for me.

...yes, I'm still sulking about having COVID and not being allowed to go.
Stay well Skater! Is that your second go around with Covid or first time? Don’t take it lightly!
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Seiffert82 »

raiderskater wrote:Going to need you all who will be there to be yelling twice as loud for me.

...yes, I'm still sulking about having COVID and not being allowed to go.
That really sucks. Hope you feel better soon skater.

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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by raiderskater »

Thanks guys. I suppose I'm lucky that this is the first time I've had the COVID in the whole time it's been a thing, but of all the times to get it...! I've had it all week so I'm past the worst and most just coughing like crazy and congested now. It's not a fun time, that's for sure.
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

raiderskater wrote: August 6, 2022, 11:41 am Thanks guys. I suppose I'm lucky that this is the first time I've had the COVID in the whole time it's been a thing, but of all the times to get it...! I've had it all week so I'm past the worst and most just coughing like crazy and congested now. It's not a fun time, that's for sure.
Glad you sound like you’re through the worst of it but it does have a nasty habit of surprising you after you think you’re all done with it. Keep doing all the right things - lots of rest and don’t cheer too hard when Hoppa scores a double to seal the win!
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Ultima »

So Savage is out for an injury he has had for a "couple of weeks" and we are instead changing Fullback not to Rapana who has at least played there this year, but with someone who hasn't played there at in first grade at all, against the top team in the league... Brilliant...

I can't see Savage being here for much longer, obviously he doesn't "respect" Stuart enough or some such Bull but whatever the reason Stuart seems to have made the decision that he doesn't want him long term...
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by mikeraider »

I feel this will a tough match for us but if we can get our Defence line strong the attacking flare from Jack with support from the fog, Timoko, young, this will go along way for us winning the match and the valuable comp 2pts. Raps will need to own the full back role i have all the confidence in him. Raiders by 8 pts.

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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Raiders666 »

Ultima wrote: August 6, 2022, 1:41 pm So Savage is out for an injury he has had for a "couple of weeks" and we are instead changing Fullback not to Rapana who has at least played there this year, but with someone who hasn't played there at in first grade at all, against the top team in the league... Brilliant...

I can't see Savage being here for much longer, obviously he doesn't "respect" Stuart enough or some such Bull but whatever the reason Stuart seems to have made the decision that he doesn't want him long term...
What makes you think Stuart doesn't want Savage here?
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Ultima »

Raiders666 wrote: August 6, 2022, 2:26 pm
Ultima wrote: August 6, 2022, 1:41 pm So Savage is out for an injury he has had for a "couple of weeks" and we are instead changing Fullback not to Rapana who has at least played there this year, but with someone who hasn't played there at in first grade at all, against the top team in the league... Brilliant...

I can't see Savage being here for much longer, obviously he doesn't "respect" Stuart enough or some such Bull but whatever the reason Stuart seems to have made the decision that he doesn't want him long term...
What makes you think Stuart doesn't want Savage here?
The constant weirdly snarky comments in press conferences, that he drops him for a long term injury that made comment about last week (it was something like "young kids aren't tough enough blah blah"), that he would replace him with Hoppa so suddenly....
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Seiffert82 »

Raiders666 wrote:
Ultima wrote: August 6, 2022, 1:41 pm So Savage is out for an injury he has had for a "couple of weeks" and we are instead changing Fullback not to Rapana who has at least played there this year, but with someone who hasn't played there at in first grade at all, against the top team in the league... Brilliant...

I can't see Savage being here for much longer, obviously he doesn't "respect" Stuart enough or some such Bull but whatever the reason Stuart seems to have made the decision that he doesn't want him long term...
What makes you think Stuart doesn't want Savage here?
Rumour has it that Stuart has also been slashing his tyres at training.

C'mon now Ultima. Lol

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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by BJ »

Stuart has a pretty good record in pushing naturally talented players hard who need a push.

Tapine now admits it was good for him, plenty of players who haven’t heeded Ricky’s harsh advice haven’t reached their playing potential.
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Brad Morkos is a likely looking lad. He played well in the early game. Big hopes for him.
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by -PJ- »

Is Kick Cow out ?
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Raiders666 »

Ultima wrote: August 6, 2022, 2:47 pm
Raiders666 wrote: August 6, 2022, 2:26 pm
Ultima wrote: August 6, 2022, 1:41 pm So Savage is out for an injury he has had for a "couple of weeks" and we are instead changing Fullback not to Rapana who has at least played there this year, but with someone who hasn't played there at in first grade at all, against the top team in the league... Brilliant...

I can't see Savage being here for much longer, obviously he doesn't "respect" Stuart enough or some such Bull but whatever the reason Stuart seems to have made the decision that he doesn't want him long term...
What makes you think Stuart doesn't want Savage here?
The constant weirdly snarky comments in press conferences, that he drops him for a long term injury that made comment about last week (it was something like "young kids aren't tough enough blah blah"), that he would replace him with Hoppa so suddenly....
I think that's just Ricky's weird way of "protecting him" ...
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Westsydneyraider »

-PJ- wrote: August 6, 2022, 3:36 pm Is Kick Cow out ?
Yes mate
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Raiders666 »

Hopefully Hoppa plays number 1.... Need to keep looking to the future
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Westsydneyraider wrote: August 6, 2022, 4:01 pm
-PJ- wrote: August 6, 2022, 3:36 pm Is Kick Cow out ?
Yes mate
Choccy reserves this week
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by mikeraider »

Let's all think about winning this instead trying to blood new young I experienced fullbacks lol

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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Raiders666 »

mikeraider wrote: August 6, 2022, 4:29 pm Let's all think about winning this instead trying to blood new young I experienced fullbacks lol

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We don't win much with CNK or Rapana at the back either? Can't be that bad
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Raiders666 wrote: August 6, 2022, 4:31 pm
mikeraider wrote: August 6, 2022, 4:29 pm Let's all think about winning this instead trying to blood new young I experienced fullbacks lol

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We don't win much with CNK or Rapana at the back either? Can't be that bad
Couldn’t beat south’s reserves with CNK today and Rapa is more a liability at 1 than anything else. Let’s see what Hoppa has.
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Raiders666 »

Yeah the fact Ricky is copping it already is strange to me... Let's see how the kid goes before we start pointing fingers
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Re: 2022 Rd 21 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by The Greenhouse »

The Greenhouse score update service
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