Canberra Raiders V Gold Coast Titans
Saturday 30 July, 3:00pm
Robina Stadium
Gates open: 12:30pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Mostly sunny. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h tending southeasterly in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late afternoon. Chance of any rain: 10 per cent Possible rainfall: 0 mm Min 10 Max 19
In Round 20, the Green Machine heads to the Gold Coast for a clash with the Titans. The Raiders are on back to back wins, but if they hope to make the finals, they now have to keep on winning. They can probably only afford one more loss in the final stretch - and they still have to face the ladder leading Panthers. So they can't afford to slip up against the 15th placed Titans.
Last round: 2022 Round 19. Canberra Raiders 26 - New Zealand Warriors 14. It was the classic "game of two halves". The Warriors started fast and went to a 12-0 lead inside the first 10 minutes. They had all the ball, but the Raiders contributed to that through their own negative plays. And that didn't get any better as the first half wore on. The home team just did not seem to have their heads in the game. It was one of the worst halves of football we've seen from Canberra this season. But in the second half, it was all the Raiders. They piled on 26 points, with Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty turning the game with key plays.
More on Round 19: As I saw it
Team news: The Canberra Raiders have not changed the top 17 that defeated the Warriors last week. Semi Valemei (knee) has been named on the reserves list. Corey Horsburgh (illness) and James Schiller (ankle) will spend another week on the sidelines.
Tino Fa'asuamaleaui moves to prop for the Titans, with Erin Clark to start at lock. Isaac Lui moves back to the bench. Brian Kelly will start at centre, with Patrick Herbert moving to the wing.
Late changes: Both teams reduced their squads to 19 on Friday afternoon and announced no changes to their top 17 squads. The Raiders retained Matt Frawley and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad on the reserves list, while the Titans retained Sam McIntyre and Corey Thompson.
History: Canberra has won 15 of 27 games against the Gold Coast Titans - and 30 of 45 games played against all incarnations of the Gold Coast. The Raiders have won eight of the past 10 matches against the Titans. In Round 4 of 2021, the Raiders prevailed, 20-4, when the two teams met at Kogarah Jubilee due to COVID. However the Raiders produced an awful performance against the Titans in front of their home crowd in Round 16, losing 44-6. That put an end to a five game winning streak against the Gold Coast. Earlier this year, the Raiders made a huge comeback after trailing the Titans, 22-0, at the 38 minute mark. Canberra went on to score five unanswered tries, winning 24-22 at Canberra Stadium.
The Raiders have won six of 13 games against the Titans at Robina Stadium, including four of the past five. The Raiders have also won 10 of 17 matches played against any opposition at Robina - and the past six straight. The Raiders will be very familiar with the surroundings, as Robina doubled as a home away from home late last year. The Raiders last lost at the ground in 2018.
2022 Round 3 Canberra Raiders V Gold Coast Titans
2021 Round 16 Canberra Raiders V Gold Coast Titans
2021 Round 4 Canberra Raiders V Gold Coast Titans
2020 Round 15 Canberra Raiders V Gold Coast Titans
2020 Round 1 Canberra Raiders V Gold Coast Titans
Form: Raiders: LWLWW
Titans: LLLLL
The Titans are on an eight game losing streak. They last won way back in Round 10 against the Dragons (20-16). They are coming off a 36-26 loss to the Bulldogs at Western Sydney Stadium on Sunday. They have also had recent losses to the Broncos (16-12), Knights (38-12), Sharks (18-10) and Rabbitohs (30-16).
Betting: The Raiders are $1.45 favourites, with the Titans paying $2.75. The Titans have 6.5 points start in the line betting. The Titans' odds have shortened over the week.
Stat attack: This is a clash between 10th (Raiders) and 15th (Titans) on the ladder. There's not much between these two teams in terms of attack. Defence is where the Raiders have a relative advantage. They now rank fifth for fewest tries conceded. But only the Knights and Warriors have conceded more tries and points than the Gold Coast. The Titans give up more running metres to the opposition than any other team in the competition (Raiders rank 12th).
The Raiders still rank poorly in terms of errors and completion rates. Only the Rabbitohs turn over possession more than the Green Machine (Titans rank fourth). Canberra is still happy to offload, ranking second in the competition in that department (Titans 13th). The Raiders do love a dummy half run as well, ranking third in the NRL (Titans last).
The Titans rank fourth for tackles breaks (Raiders 10th), not surprising with the likes of David Fifita (50 tackle breaks) and AJ Brimson (49) in the team. Nick Cotric (54), Matt Timoko (53) and Joe Tapine (49) also make plenty of tackle breaks for the Green Machine.
2022 Season record: Raiders 9 and 9 (10th, -25)
Titans 3 and 15 (15th, -186)
Attack: Raiders 18 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 11th on tries scored
Titans 16 points and 3 tries scored per match, equal 12th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 20 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked fifth for fewest tries conceded
Titans 26 points and 5 tries conceded per match, ranked 14th for fewest tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Titans 49 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 74 per cent, Titans 78 per cent
Running: Raiders 1443 running metres per match
Titans 1488 running metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 30, Titans 32 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 3, Titans 4 per match
Try assists: Raiders 2, Titans 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 12, Titans 8 per match
Kicking: Raiders 491 kicking metres per match
Titans 507 kicking metres per match
Tackling: Raiders 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Titans 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1342 running metres conceded per match
Titans 1534 running metres conceded per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Titans 10 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Titans 5 per match
Key match-ups:
Jamal Fogarty and Toby Sexton: Raiders halfback Jamal Fogarty will face his former team for the first time. His opponent is the young half that the Titans preferred over Fogarty, Toby Sexton. Fogarty had his best game in green last Saturday - after spending the first 11 rounds on the sidelines due to a knee injury. In his seven appearances for the Raiders, he's produced five try assists, one line break assist, six forced line drop outs and an average 261 kicking metres. Sexton has found his first full season in first grade to be tougher than many expected. In 18 games, he has posted two tries, nine try assists, five line break assists, 23 forced line drop outs and 366 averaged kicking metres. On average, and as a whole, Fogarty's numbers are bit better than Sexton. Fogarty wins this match-up for mine.
Hudson Young and David Fifita: David Fifita is reportedly a million dollar man, signing a three year deal with the Titans in 2021 at $1.2 million a season. It's fair to say he's not been delivering like a million dollar player. But he can still be a very damaging second rower. So far in 2022 he's made 12 appearances - delivering four tries, seven line breaks, six line break assists, 18 offloads and an average of 117 running metres and 23 tackles per game. Along with Joe Tapine and Josh Papalii, Hudson Young has been in the top three forwards for the Raiders this year. He's scored six tries and produced six line breaks, three line break assists, 17 offloads and an average of 103 running metres and 31 tackles per game. Those numbers are close enough for me to say this match-up is a draw. Young is certainly better value.
Joseph Tapine and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui: Joe Tapine has been in the best form of his life in 2022. If he's not the best prop in the competition, he'd be very close. He's made more post contact metres (1269) than any other player in the NRL and ranks fourth for most running metres. He's also posted one try, 49 tackle breaks, 33 offloads, and an average of 164 running metres and 30 tackles per game. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui shifts from lock to prop this week. The Titans captain and best forward ranks second in the NRL for post contract metres (1121). He has four tries, 38 tackle breaks, 13 offloads and an average 151 running metres and 30 tackles per game. Big Tino is an absolute weapon, but Joe Tapine wins this match-up in my view.
My tip: The Raiders are again deserved favourites to win this week. The Titans have some big dangerous forwards and some players who know how to attack. But the form line of the two teams and the defensive numbers suggest that this is a match the Raiders should win and win well. Raiders by 12+.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart: Jack Wighton's combination with Jamal Fogarty is just improving more and more. It's their fifth game together. We need a bit of stability and continuity in the halves. That was our biggest problem right throughout the year. Not the boys that were playing there, but the way we had to keep changing our spine through disruption and injuries and COVID. That little bit of stability is helping us."
Canberra Raiders
1. Xavier Savage
2. Nick Cotric
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Albert Hopoate
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Adam Elliott
14. Tom Starling
15. Ryan Sutton
16. Emre Guler
17. Corey Harawira-Naera
18. Matt Frawley
19. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
Injury/Suspension
Corey Horsburgh, Virus (Rd 21)
James Schiller, Ankle (Rd 21)
Jordan Rapana, Suspended (Rd 21)
Trey Mooney, Ankle (Rd 21-22)
Harry Rushton, Fractured jaw (Rd 25)
Jarrod Croker, Shoulder (Season)
Harley Smith-Shields, Knee (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
Gold Coast Titans
1. AJ Brimson
2. Sosefo Fifita
3. Phillip Sami
4. Brian Kelly
5. Patrick Herbert
6. Tanah Boyd
7. Toby Sexton
8. Moeaki Fotuaika
9. Aaron Booth
10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui
11. David Fifita
12. Beau Fermor
13. Erin Clark
14. Jayden Campbell
15. Herman Ese'ese
16. Isaac Liu
17. Jaimin Jolliffe
18. Sam McIntyre
19. Corey Thompson
Injury/Suspension
Joe Vuna, ACL (Indefinite)
Shallin Fuller, Leg (Season)
Officials
Referee: Ben Cummins
Touch judges: Wyatt Raymond, Nick Morel
Video referee: Kasey Badger
NRL teams: Click here
NSW Cup teams: Click here
Jersey Flegg teams: Click here
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