Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
Saturday 23 July, 3:00pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 10:45am
Jersey Flegg: Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs, 11:00am
NSW Cup: Canberra Raiders V Canterbury Bulldogs, 12:40pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Cloudy. Slight (20 per cent) chance of a shower. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 20 per cent Min 3 Max 15
The Raiders return home in Round 19 after a confidence boosting win over the Storm in Melbourne. They meet a team that they should beat, the New Zealand Warriors.
Last round: 2022 Round 18. Canberra Raiders 20 - Melbourne Storm 16. The Melbourne Storm had not lost three games in a row since 2015. The Storm are the biggest bogey team in the competition for the Canberra Raiders. The Green Machine had won just 14 of the 50 matches played between the clubs. Canberra lost Elliott Whitehead, Nick Cotric and Corey Horsburgh to injury and illness on the eve of the match. A tough assignment. Yet it was the Raiders that walked off the field in Melbourne, with their fourth win in a row at the ground. And the Storm posted their third straight loss.
More on Round 18: As I saw it
Team news: Second rower Elliott Whitehead (knee) and winger Nick Cotric (leg) return for the Canberra Raiders - after being late withdrawals last week. James Schiller is out for one to two weeks, after suffering an ankle injury in the clash with the Storm. Jordan Rapana has been suspended for two weeks for a high tackle on Melbourne’s Marion Steve. Albert Hopoate will make his first starting appearance in green in Rapana's customary wing spot. Corey Harawira-Naera drops back to the bench.
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak returns for the Warriors, while Reece Walsh has been dropped to the bench. Chanel Harris-Tavita shifts to fullback, with Daejarn Asi taking over at five-eighth. Addin Fonua-Blake will start at prop.
Late changes: The Raiders reduced their squad to 19 on Friday afternoon, leaving Elijah Anderson and Ata Mariota on the reserves list. Their top 17 was unchanged. The Warriors ruled out Aaron Pene (virus) on Friday, with Eliesa Katoa replacing him on the bench.
History: Canberra has won 25 of 47 games played against the Warriors. The Raiders have won three of the past five matches between the clubs - and five of the last 10. In In Round 3 last year, the Raiders led 25-6 at home at half time, before the Warriors staged a comeback to win by three points, 34-31. The NRL later admitted that a Warriors try in the 59th minute to Ben Murdoch-Masila should have been disallowed, due to a forward pass from Kodi Nikorima. The Raiders got some late season revenge and kept their finals hopes alive, with a 28-16 win over the Warriors in Mackay.
Earlier this year, it was another controversial defeat for Canberra, with Matt Lodge milking a penalty which allowed the Warriors to force golden point. Given Corey Horsburgh's high contact on Lodge was not a genuinely reportable offence, the bunker should not have intervened. But they did. The last minute penalty goal saw the Warriors draw level, 20-20, before Shaun Johnson kicked the winning field goal in golden point time.
The Raiders have won 13 of 19 games played between the clubs at Canberra Stadium. However, the Warriors have won three of the past four games at the venue.
2022 Round 8 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
2021 Round 24 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
2021 Round 3 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
Form: Raiders: WLWLW
Warriors: LLLWL
After beating the Raiders in Round 8, the Warriors lost seven games straight. They broke that losing streak when they beat the Tigers (22-2) a few weeks ago, in Round 16. It was the first time they'd played at home in Auckland since the outbreak of the pandemic. But last week, they again went down to the Eels at Parramatta, 28-18.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.31 favourites, with the Warriors paying $3.50. The Warriors have 12.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: This is a clash between 10th (Raiders) and 12th (Warriors) on the ladder. The Warriors rank last for running metres gained, tackle breaks and offloads. They also rank last for fewest tries conceded. The Raiders rank second in the NRL for offloads - and for errors.
Raiders prop Joseph Tapine ranks first in the NRL for post contact metres, fourth for running metres and equal fourth for offloads. Warriors fullback Reece Walsh ranks third for most handling errors.
2022 Season record: Raiders 8 and 9 (10th, -37)
Warriors 5 and 12 (12th, -175)
Attack: Raiders 18 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 11th on tries scored
Warriors 17 points and 3 tries scored per match, equal 12th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 20 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked sixth for fewest tries conceded
Warriors 28 points and 5 tries conceded per match, ranked 16th for fewest tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 49 per cent, Warriors 49 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 74 per cent, Warriors 76 per cent
Running: Raiders 1431 running metres per match
Warriors 1357 running metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 30, Warriors 23 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 3, Warriors 3 per match
Try assists: Raiders 2, Warriors 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 11, Warriors 7 per match
Kicking: Raiders 481 kicking metres per match
Warriors 520 kicking metres per match
Tackling: Raiders 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Warriors 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1355 running metres conceded per match
Warriors 1450 running metres conceded per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Warriors 10 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Warriors 5 per match
Key match-ups:
Xavier Savage and Chanel Harris-Tavita: The Warriors have dumped Reece Walsh to the bench, with Chanel Harris-Tavita taking over at fullback. Harris-Tavita has played just two games in the No. 1 jersey in season 2022 - in Round 1 against the Dragons and a few weeks back against the Tigers. Most of his appearances have been at five eighth. He's produced one try, three try assists, two line break assists, 62 average running metres and 85 per cent tackle efficiency. Xavier Savage has only 14 NRL appearances to his name, and has started at fullback just six times. He's still learning, but getting better, quickly. He has an error in him in terms of handling and defence, but he is reportedly the fourth fastest player in the NRL. He's got X factor. He's also got four tries, two try assists, 27 tackle breaks, five line breaks, 131 average running metres and 72 per cent tackle efficiency this year. I'll give this match up to the X man.
Jamal Fogarty and Shaun Johnson: Jamal Fogarty spent the first half of the season on the sidelines with a knee injury. He didn't make his Raiders debut until Round 12. He's been gradually settling in over the past six weeks, and probably had his best game in green against the Storm. His goal kicking won the Raiders the game. He has three try assists, five forced line drop outs, 51 average running metres and 251 average kicking metres to his name this year. Shaun Johnson has been a bit of a bogey player for the Raiders over the years. In 15 appearances in 2022, he's posted one try, 10 try assists, six line break assists, 14 forced line drop outs, 55 average running metres and 371 average kicking metres. Johnson takes this match up in my view.
Josh Papalii and Addin Fonua-Blake: Ever since one day at Canberra Stadium, when Addin Fonua-Blake mocked the crowd, the Warriors prop hasn't been too popular among the Raiders faithful. That day he was with the Sea Eagles, but now he's a forward leader at the Warriors. The Origin period saw Josh Papalii's form dip unexpectedly. But he was very solid in Origin III, after injuries forced Queensland coach Billy Slater to give him more minutes. And his numbers in 2022 overall are better than those of Fonua-Blake. Papalii has produced two tries, 33 tackle breaks, 25 offloads, 119 average running metres and 26 tackles per game. AFB has 26 tackle breaks, six offloads, 157 average running metres and 23 tackles per game. Papa will probably want to lift his metres, but he wins this match up.
My tip: The Raiders are deserved favourites to win this match. They should win and win well. And if they don't, their finals credentials will again come into serious question. One worry for the Raiders is Shaun Johnson. He's one of those players who has proved to be a thorn in their side in the past - as recently as the last contest up at Redcliffe. Another worry is the injury toll. And the final worry is that the Raiders often seem to lose the games they are expected to win. But all that's the vibe. Looking at the numbers, it should be Raiders by 10, at least.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart: "We’re in the hunt. There’s no doubt about that. I just need us to play with that type of spirit and they do. That’s why I love coaching them because they are a tough bunch of blokes. They’re spirited."
Canberra Raiders
1. Xavier Savage
2. Nick Cotric
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Albert Hopoate
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Adam Elliott
14. Tom Starling
15. Ryan Sutton
16. Emre Guler
17. Corey Harawira-Naera
19. Elijah Anderson
21. Ata Mariota
Injury/Suspension
Corey Horsburgh, Virus (Rd 20)
James Schiller, Ankle (Rd 20-21)
Semi Valemei, Knee (Rd 20-21)
Jordan Rapana, Suspended (Rd 21)
Trey Mooney, Ankle (Rd 21-22)
Harry Rushton, Fractured jaw (Rd 25)
Jarrod Croker, Shoulder (Season)
Harley Smith-Shields, Knee (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
New Zealand Warriors
1. Chanel Harris-Tavita
2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
3. Jesse Arthars
4. Adam Pompey
5. Marcelo Montoya
6. Daejarn Asi
7. Shaun Johnson
8. Addin Fonua-Blake
9. Wayde Egan
10. Tohu Harris
11. Euan Aitken
12. Josh Curran
13. Jazz Tevaga
14. Reece Walsh
15. Bunty Afoa
17. Jack Murchie
18. Eliesa Katoa
20. Edward Kosi
23. Jackson Frei
Injury/Suspension
Bayley Sironen, Eye socket (Rd 21)
Ben Murdoch-Masila, Elbow (Rd 24)
Officials
Referee: Chris Sutton
Touch judges: Nick Pelgrave, Cameron Paddy
Video Referee: Kasey Badger
NRL teams: Click here
NSW Cup teams: Click here
Jersey Flegg teams: Click here
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