When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

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papabear
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When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

Post by papabear »

I am sure this frustrates others, but I am going to keep it simple here.

If the scorecard is:-
- -18 tap
- -16 tap
- -14 tap (consider PG on game circumstances)
- -12 tap
- -10 tap
- - 8 PG
- - 6 tap
- -4 tap
- -2 PG
0 PG
- +2 tap
- +4 tap
- +6 PG
- +8 tap
- +10 tap
- +12 PG
Then you should tap regardless.

Some game circumstances to consider...

- What do the other team want you to do - do the opposite.
- Did they give away the penalty early in the set already on their goal line like breaking early - they are confident they can defend with their structure time in place, increases likelihood of just taking the 2.
- Is the defensive line gassed... if you have many many sets on the line already and the score isnt even, you need to keep putting the pressure on even if you dont score, taking the two is too big of a concession that your attack is **** and they have you covered...
- Have you just made a line break and the defensive line is tired / dishevelled from sprinting back 80 metres...

This is just a simple guide as we seem to fail at the most basic mathematic concepts of the game. 1 maximum score is worth 6, the more maximum scores away you are the more likely you win, alternatively if your behind the less maximum scores you can make the more likely you come back.

We should have taken the 2 at 8 down... it would have got parra nervous and focused us on just one more try. We should have gone for the try when up by 2, instead of telling parra we suck in second halves and cant even score now when we have you shot.
The Nickman
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Re: When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

Post by The Nickman »

I think you've pretty much nailed it, to be perfectly fair, papa
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Botman
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Re: When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

Post by Botman »

My feeling is simple, there is three scenarios

1. Tie ball game late in the game. Take the 2 for a lead.

2. Down two, to level the score.

3. When it either extends a lead beyond a converted try up to taking it from 24 to 26 (after which time you can probably back yourself to score). I don’t think 12 is enough these days to just blindly tap, but that’s just me

There are other random situations where it makes sense. I think kicking it down 8 given the game circumstances would have an acceptable call

Taking the two to go from a 2 point lead to a 4 point lead truly boggles the mind. That should almost never happen unless you’re playing in monsoon and it’s a 4-2 score line where no one can score tries or you’re doing it to waste time at the very end of the game and you’re essentially trying run out the clock with the attempt
Last edited by Botman on May 30, 2022, 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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BadnMean
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Re: When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

Post by BadnMean »

It was a momentum killer. Pretty much the moment we reduced to playing one out footy again- putting away the ball movement and suppor play that got us in front in the first place and had Parra rattled. The one out was making yards but they were bending, not breaking- didn't make a lot of chances.

Which is what I worried out in the pre game thread- would we sustain the new attacking style or resort to grind when we felt pressure. It's a little sign that we aren't there yet mentally (and it came from the coaches). We don't quite trust the process that is leading to success to hold up and retreat to "grind" as it feels safer.

What's weirder was it had been a high scoring game- clearly not the kind of game which was going to be won by kicking a penalty goal and then hanging on for grim death for 35 minutes in the rain, it was end to end stuff.

We make the grind even harder by regularly doing it with less subs than other teams, adding to the fatigue.
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kiwi raider
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Re: When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

Post by kiwi raider »

it was a horrible decision to take the 2. probably down to the fact Stuart knows we have bugger all creativity close to the line but still a negative/defeatist decision
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Roger Kenworthy
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Re: When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

Post by Roger Kenworthy »

The Ricky method used on the weekend is much simpler.

- are you winning by 57 or less? Take the 2.
- are you trailing? Tap.
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Re: When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

Post by Ultima »

I mostly agree with the OP except I would add in situations where you don't have time. So if you get a penalty in the 39.9th minute, you take the two because it's such a low percentage since shot play otherwise. But three minutes into the second half, up by two, just stupid... Only worse was then NOT going for the two when we were eight behind with five to go...
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gangrenous
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Re: When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

Post by gangrenous »

Agree papa and Ultima’s add on.

It’s emblematic of tactics generally.
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Matt
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Re: When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

Post by Matt »

Agree with the rest.
To go beyond any multiple of a converted try. The reverse also works, to a point. So if you can take it to be down by a multiple of a converted try.

There are other times u take it:
1. To level up,
2. To take the lead,
3. In particularly **** weather where points are hard to come by.
4. Or wasting time, esp if you have players in the bin, or trying to hold a lead with less that 10mins on the clock.
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Seiffert82
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Re: When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

Post by Seiffert82 »

It was very weird to take the 2 when we did and decline the option when down by 8.

If the coach made these calls, he has a lot to answer for.

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simo
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Re: When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

Post by simo »

Take 2 for first game points until 10-15 min mark. If given the option you would always start a game on 2 points and defences are hardest to crack in this time. Dont risk the morale boost they can get by turning you away with nothing
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The Nickman
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Re: When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

Post by The Nickman »

simo wrote: May 31, 2022, 7:20 pm Take 2 for first game points until 10-15 min mark. If given the option you would always start a game on 2 points and defences are hardest to crack in this time. Dont risk the morale boost they can get by turning you away with nothing
Just expanding on that I think everytime the score is level (or you're down by one or two) you take the two as well.

Just don't **** do it when you're only two points up unless there's only minutes to go.
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Re: When to kick a penalty goal - when to keep pushing

Post by Northern Raider »

Seiffert82 wrote: May 31, 2022, 7:43 am It was very weird to take the 2 when we did and decline the option when down by 8.

If the coach made these calls, he has a lot to answer for.

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Didn't make a lot of sense trying taking a lead from 2 to 4 points at the time. That said we had plenty more cracks at their line and came up with nothing and this ended up our only points of the 2nd half.

The bigger area of debate is whether to take 2 when down by 8. We were gifted an opportunity to turn a 2 score deficit into 1 score. Of course unless you can score a try it's all moot so should you try and leverage the field position? I can see logic either way.
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