Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
Saturday 30 April, 3:00pm
Dolphin Oval, Redcliffe
Gates open: 11:45am
Redcliffe Dolphins V Townsville Blackhawks 12:15pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Shower or two. Partly cloudy. The chance of morning fog. Medium chance of showers, most likely in the late morning and afternoon. Light winds. Chance of rain: 70 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm Min 19 Max 26
The Canberra Raiders are on a four game losing streak - and are back "on the road" in Round 8 for a clash with the New Zealand Warriors at their temporary home, Redcliffe.
Last round: 2022 Round 7. Penrith Panthers 36 - Canberra Raiders 6. The Canberra Raiders came ready to play. They were determined and showed intent in their defence. The attack was conservative, the aim to keep errors low. It offered little threat. The tactics were to get in the grind. The Raiders were certainly in the game at half time, trailing 14-6. It had been six apiece at the 30 minute mark. But the Panthers strangled the Raiders in the second half - trapping the visitors at their own end for virtually the entire 40 minutes. At times, the Raiders were being forced to kick from their own 10 metre line. And when the Raiders' defence finally cracked, the dam wall broke.
More on Round 7: As I saw it
Team news: Canberra Raiders captain Elliott Whitehead (facial injury) returns in the second row, with Corey Harawira-Naera dropping to the bench. Adam Elliott was a late inclusion at starting lock against the Panthers, but Ryan Sutton has been named at No. 13. Last week's debutant, Harry Rushton, is the 18th man.
Winger Dallin Watene-Zelezniak suffered a serious head knock in the Warriors' loss to the Storm on Monday night, while forward Josh Curran left the field with a suspected medial ligament injury. Both have been ruled out, while forward Aaron Pene has been suspended for a high tackle on Reimis Smith. Kodi Nikorima is out, due to a positive COVID test. Ben Murdoch-Masila (leg) and former Raider Jack Murchie (calf) return from injury. Rocco Berry replaces Watene-Zelezniak while Viliame Vailea comes in on the other wing. Bayley Sironen fills in for Curran. New signing Daejarn Asi from the Cowboys is included as a reserve.
Late changes: Canberra Raiders captain Elliott Whitehead was ruled out on Friday afternoon. He's been given more time to recover from a facial injury. Adam Elliott will replace Whitehead in the starting team, with Harry Rushton coming in on the bench. Jack Wighton will again step in as acting captain. Matt Frawley and Trey Mooney remain on the reserves list for Canberra. The Warriors announced on Thursday that Chanel Harris-Tavita (groin) has been ruled out for three to four weeks. Daejarn Asi will debut in his place.
History: Canberra has won 25 of 46 games played against the Warriors. The Raiders have won three of the past five matches between the clubs - and six of the last 10. In In Round 3 last year, the Raiders led 25-6 at home at half time, before the Warriors staged a comeback to win by three points, 34-31. The NRL later admitted that a Warriors try in the 59th minute to Ben Murdoch-Masila should have been disallowed, due to a forward pass from Kodi Nikorima. The Raiders got some late season revenge and kept their finals hopes alive, with a 28-16 win over the Warriors in Mackay. The two teams have never previously met at Redcliffe.
2021 Round 24 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
2021 Round 3 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
2020 Round 19 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
2020 Round 2 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
Form: Raiders: WLLLL
Warriors: WWWLL
The Warriors are coming off back to back losses. They lost to the Roosters, 22-14, at the Sydney Cricket Ground in Round 6. They followed that up with their biggest ever loss - falling to the Storm, 70-10, on Anzac Day in Melbourne. After losing in the opening two rounds, the Warriors strung three wins together against the Tigers(16-12), Broncos (20-6) and Cowboys (25-24).
Betting: The Raiders are slight $1.80 favourites, with the Warriors paying $2.00. The Warriors have 1.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: After conceding 13 tries to the Melbourne Storm, the Warriors have the worst defensive record in the league. But the Raiders are not much better. They've conceded 29 tries this year, compared with 32 for the Warriors. Only the Broncos have conceded more running metres than the Warriors in 2022. Surprisingly, the Raiders are in the middle of the pack in that department.
The Green Machine's attack is spluttering. Only the Bulldogs and Tigers have scored fewer tries. The Warriors aren't much better, ranking 12th in attack. The Raiders and Warriors are bottom of the table for running metres. Both teams are also bottom four in terms of line breaks, while the Warriors are last for tackle breaks and second last for offloads. Canberra reduced its error count last week, but have the lowest completion rate in the competition, along with the Rabbitohs.
Despite being last for running metres gained, the Raiders have not been compensating with their kicking game. They kick less than any other team, and only the Rabbitohs have made fewer kicking metres.
2022 Season record: Raiders 2 and 5 (15th, -82)
Warriors 2 and 4 (11th, -63)
Attack: Raiders 13 points and 2 tries scored per match, ranked 14th on tries scored
Warriors 17 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 12th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 25 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 14th on fewest tries conceded
Warriors 26 points and 5 tries conceded per match, ranked 16th on fewest tries conceded
Completion rate: Raiders 71 per cent, Warriors 77 per cent
Running: Raiders 1164 running metres per match
Warriors 1222 running metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 29, Warriors 20 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 3, Warriors 3 per match
Try assists: Raiders 2, Warriors 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 12, Warriors 6 per match
Kicking: Raiders 433 kicking metres per match
Warriors 520 kicking metres per match
Tackling: Raiders 89 per cent tackle efficiency
Warriors 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1388 running metres conceded per match
Warriors 1497 running metres conceded per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Warriors 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 7, Warriors 7 per match
Key match-ups:
Jordan Rapana and Reece Walsh: A 32 year old veteran who has played 164 NRL games versus a 19 year old with 22 appearances to his name. Jordan Rapana shifted to fullback last week - and he was sound, as he always is when he plays in the No. 1 jersey. He was safe under the high ball and there's no doubt he gets involved. He made five tackle breaks. But with the Raiders spending much of the game trapped on their own line, he didn't make much in the way of running metres (52) or kick return metres (nine). The problem is, that like the player he replaced, ball playing isn't a particular strength. This year, Reece Walsh has three try assists, three line breaks, 30 tackle breaks and averaged 155 running metres. He is an excitement machine with the ball in hand, but his defence can be an issue. He's got eight try causes in 2022.
Xavier Savage and Rocco Berry: Two 20 year old wingers. Xavier Savage has just five NRL appearances, including two this year. He played off the bench in Round 6 and started on the wing last week against the Panthers. It was the sort of game where none of the Raiders back five made any metres, due to a lack of possession and territory. He only made 39 running metres and came up with a couple of errors. But he has huge potential and serious speed, so it is good to again see him eased into the NRL on the wing. Rocco Berry has 11 NRL appearances and three, at centre, this year. He's a junior rugby union player, and the son of an All Black, Marty Berry. He's averaged 90 running metres and made three tackle breaks and one line break. It'll be interesting to see what the two youngsters produce at Redcliffe.
Josh Papalii and Addin Fonua-Blake: Ever since one day at Canberra Stadium, when Addin Fonua-Blake mocked the crowd, the Warriors prop hasn't been too popular among the Raiders faithful. That day he was with the Sea Eagles, but now he's the forward leader at the Warriors. Fonua-Blake has the better numbers than Josh Papalii so far this year. Fonua-Blake is averaging 152 running metres per game and has produced 18 tackle breaks and two offloads. Papalii was the only player who broke through the 100 metres gained mark for the Raiders last week. But his running metres are way down in 2022 (115 per game). He's also got 16 tackle breaks and 10 offloads. Papalii is probably a little more sound defensively. His tackle efficiency rate is very nearly 100 per cent (97 per cent for Fonua-Blake).
My tip: Both teams will be desperate to bounce back after poor results last week. After a 60 point loss for the Warriors, the Raiders are probably justified slight favourites. But neither team is performing. Coach Ricky Stuart said the Raiders produced their best 50 minutes of football this season against the Panthers. That's an improvement on the good 40 minutes of footy they've played in other games, I guess. The issue for the Raiders is what is happening in the other 30-40 minutes. It is difficult to know which version of these two teams will turn up on Saturday. Flip of the coin. But I'll say Raiders by two.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart on last week's NRL debut of Harry Rushton: "It didn't come into my line of thought at all that it was going to be too big a challenge for him. It was right down his alley. He's a tough kid and he's got a lot of first grade in front of him. He's a bloke who's just going to keep on growing and developing with the game."
Corey Harawira-Naera on the need to improve discipline after the loss to the Panthers: "I don't want to blame the ref, but the penalty count in the second half definitely didn't help us. A lot of it was ill discipline, but there was a lot of 50-50s that could've gone our way as well. We can only control what we can, but we still made it tough on ourselves. One thing we can be better at is our discipline."
Canberra Raiders
1. Jordan Rapana
2. Nick Cotric
3. Matt Timoko
4. Semi Valemei
5. Xavier Savage
6. Jack Wighton (c)
7. Brad Schneider
8. Josh Papalii
9. Tom Starling
10. Joe Tapine
11. Hudson Young
16. Adam Elliott
13. Ryan Sutton
14. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
15. Corey Harawira-Naera
17. Corey Horsburgh
18. Harry Rushton
19. Matt Frawley
22. Trey Mooney
Injury/Suspension
Elliott Whitehead, Face (Rd 9)
Jamal Fogarty, Knee (Rd 15-17)
Harley Smith-Shields, Knee (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
New Zealand Warriors
1. Reece Walsh
2. Rocco Berry
3. Jesse Arthars
4. Adam Pompey
5. Viliami Vailea
21. Daejarn Asi
7. Shaun Johnson
8. Addin Fonua-Blake (c)
9. Wayde Egan
10. Matt Lodge
11. Euan Aitken
12. Bayley Sironen
13. Jazz Tevaga
14. Taniela Otukolo
15. Bunty Afoa
16. Eliesa Katoa
17. Jack Murchie
18. Edward Kosi
20. Ben Murdoch-Masila
Injury/Suspension
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Head knock (TBC)
Josh Curran, Knee (TBC)
Marcelo Montoya, Suspension (Rd 10)
Chanel Harris-Tavita, Groin (Rd 10-11)
Ash Taylor, Hip (Indefinite)
Tohu Harris, Knee (Mid-season)
Tom Ale, Knee (Mid-season)
Officials
Referee: Chris Butler
Touch judges: Tyson Brough, Nick Morel
Video referee: Steve Chiddy
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Jersey Flegg teams: Click here
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