Re: Through green eyes 2022
Posted: March 31, 2022, 5:27 pm
Through green eyes: What the numbers are telling us
The Raiders have probably put together one good game of football in the 240 minutes they've played so far in season 2022.
It is clear that they came into this season with a new plan for the attack. The forwards have actually started to pass the ball to each other, to offload much more. They have also looked to use much more width in the attack, spreading the ball from side to side at times. If there have been new plans for the defence, they're not quite as easy to discern.
In any case, as is the way in rugby league, the best laid plans often go awry. The Raiders' season has quickly pushed off course by injury and suspension. The loss of two key play makers, half Jamal Fogarty and hooker Josh Hodgson, has been a major disruption. Before the second game of the year, there were only 24 fit players available to take to Townsville. So it is no wonder that the first three games have not gone smoothly. The two wins have been last gasp wins, while the loss to the Cowboys was embarrassing. But two out of three ain't bad, all things considered.
Normally I'd wait a month to start looking at team statistics, to see what trends can be gleaned. But as the Raiders are about to head to Mudgee for a clash with the Sea Eagles, I couldn't resist any longer. What do the numbers tell us?
Attack: The Raiders have averaged just over three tries per match, ranking ninth in the competition. Completions have been the biggest issue. At 69 per cent, Canberra has the worst completion rate in the league. They rank fifth for errors (12 per game) and are middle of the pack for penalties conceded (six per game).
The Raiders have posted a better possession share than those numbers might suggest - 49 per cent. In part that's due to the Raiders' new found predilection to pass the ball around. They rank first for offloads (14 per game). But more passing does come with increased risk of handling errors.
Try assists and line break assists are mid table or a bit worse. Obviously, that marries up with a ranking of ninth for tries scored. Line breaks are below average (3 per game), and the Raiders are ahead of only the Broncos and Sea Eagles in that department.
The running numbers are worse. The Raiders currently sit in last place for running metres per game (1408 per game), last for post contact metres (464 per game) and 11th for kick return metres (132 per game). Given the Raiders have made more tackle breaks than any other team (37 per game), that's a poor return for post contact metres. The Raiders still run from dummy half a lot - an average of 13 times per game, second only to the Storm. Tom Starling showed in the second half last week how dangerous that can be. The decoy running is up. They're averaging 40 per game (sixth in the league), compared with 33 in 2021 (14th).
Defence: The Raiders rank in the bottom four teams for fewest points conceded (13th, 22 points per game). The Raiders have had a lot to do in defence, but their tackle efficiency has been pretty good (88.6 per cent, ranked fourth). The missed tackle count is relatively low (27 per game, ranked 13th). So is the ineffective tackle count (14 per game, ranked 10th). But like last year, the Raiders are probably conceding too many running metres (1479 per game). That number is affected by the whopping 1739 running metres conceded against the Cowboys. But they have still conceded more, on average, than they have gained, so far, and that's an issue.
The Raiders' right side defence is another issue. 55 per cent of the tries conceded have come on that edge and 27 per cent in the middle. Only 18 per cent have come through the left edge. Semi Valemei isn't on his own, and decisions inside often create problems for centres and wingers. There have been disruptions to combinations. But Valemei has struggled with his positioning at times. Fixing the defensive combinations on the right is no doubt something on the minds of the Raiders' coaches. By the way, 50 per cent of the tries scored are coming on the Raiders' left edge, and only 30 per cent on the right.
Kicking: The Raiders are last for kicks per game (14) - and second last for kicking metres gained per game (374). I'd like to see some more detailed breakdowns of what is happening there. But the NRL doesn't publish them, and the Fox Sports Lab has not yet produced statistics for 2022.
Overall, there is still a lot to work on for the Raiders. There's also plenty of time left to do that. But completions and turnovers are the one thing they will need to address quickly. Because you can't score points without the ball - and handing the ball to the opposition puts too much pressure on the defence.
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How do those numbers compare to this week's opponents, the Sea Eagles?
They haven't had the best start, their only win coming last week against the Bulldogs. And they only won by a point. They rank 15th in attack (less than two tries per game). They are second last for possession share and line breaks. Only the Titans, Dragons, Tigers and Raiders have conceded more points. So it has been a slow start for Manly.
Why is it so?
The winning margins in matches have contracted this year. Last year, blow outs were common and margins blew out to 18 points on average. Three rounds in, the average winning margins have fallen to just under 10 this year. That's the lowest margins have been since the NRL started in 1998. The number of tries per game have also fallen slightly, from eight per game to just under seven.
Most commentators are attributing that to the further change to the "six again" rule this year - after the NRL went too far in extending "six again" calls last year. This year we have returned to penalties for ruck and 10 metre infringements, when the team in possession is inside its own 40 metre zone. It has added to complexity, but at least it is ameliorating the worst aspects of the "six again" rule.
“It’s pretty clear in the first three rounds that the games have been much more competitive," the NRL's head of football, Graeme Annesley said this week.
"There’s a long way to go and who knows what the rest of the season will have in store but I’d like to think the tweak of the rules around the penalties inside the 40 have given teams the opportunity to get themselves into better position and mount counter attacks."
“It allows the team in possession, who are trying to get the ball out of their own territory, to kick for touch and mount some sort of counter attack in the opposition half.”
This, after he spent all last year telling us how wonderful the new "six again" rules and the blowouts were. But I digress.
Raiders coach Ricky Stuart believes there are also other reasons for the decline in margins. He suggests that the lower ranked teams have improved their rosters, and have caught up in their preparation as well.
But the rule change probably has disrupted some of tactics of coaches like Des Hasler. Manly were one of the teams exploiting the "six again" rule last year. Possibly, the rule change has also helped other teams to contain the attacking brilliance of Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans and to slow the momentum of Manly's attack.
If the Raiders are to win on Saturday, that's going to be crucial. They can't give Trbojevic and Cherry-Evans any space. And the Raiders will have to be spot on in their defence. They'll need line speed, and they can't concede lots of metres.
Oh... and don't drop the ball, please.
****
The Canberra Raiders Cup kicks off on Saturday - with hopes we'll see a completed season in 2022. The past two years have been unfortunately disrupted by the pandemic. But hopefully, we will get to Grand Final day this year. Check out our season preview here. And remember, if you can't get to a local ground, all matches are live streamed by Bar TV Sports. One match is streamed free each week. Other matches can be viewed for a subscription fee, with some of the proceeds helping the local rugby league club of your choice. Whatever way you can, make sure you support the Canberra region's grass roots footy! It produces the Raiders of the future.
****
Every week I rate the Raiders players on a scale of 0-10... and here is the latest points tally. Tell us what you think of the ratings!
Total points
Jack Wighton 22
Joe Tapine 21
Corey Harawira-Naera 20
Josh Papalii 20
Corey Horsburgh 19
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 18
Hudson Young 18
Matt Timoko 18
Tom Starling 18
Elliott Whitehead 17
Semi Valemei 16
Adam Elliott 14
Brad Schneider 14
Emre Guler 14
Sebastian Kris 11
James Schiller 10
Matt Frawley 9
Jordan Rapana 7
Nick Cotric 6
Adrian Trevilyan 4
Josh Hodgson 1
Average points per match
Jack Wighton 7.3
Brad Schneider 7.0
Joe Tapine 7.0
Jordan Rapana 7.0
Corey Harawira-Naera 6.7
Josh Papalii 6.7
Corey Horsburgh 6.3
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 6.0
Hudson Young 6.0
Matt Timoko 6.0
Nick Cotric 6.0
Tom Starling 6.0
Elliott Whitehead 5.7
Sebastian Kris 5.5
Semi Valemei 5.3
James Schiller 5.0
Adam Elliott 4.7
Emre Guler 4.7
Matt Frawley 4.5
Adrian Trevilyan 4.0
Josh Hodgson 1.0
Plus follow us on Facebook: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
The Raiders have probably put together one good game of football in the 240 minutes they've played so far in season 2022.
It is clear that they came into this season with a new plan for the attack. The forwards have actually started to pass the ball to each other, to offload much more. They have also looked to use much more width in the attack, spreading the ball from side to side at times. If there have been new plans for the defence, they're not quite as easy to discern.
In any case, as is the way in rugby league, the best laid plans often go awry. The Raiders' season has quickly pushed off course by injury and suspension. The loss of two key play makers, half Jamal Fogarty and hooker Josh Hodgson, has been a major disruption. Before the second game of the year, there were only 24 fit players available to take to Townsville. So it is no wonder that the first three games have not gone smoothly. The two wins have been last gasp wins, while the loss to the Cowboys was embarrassing. But two out of three ain't bad, all things considered.
Normally I'd wait a month to start looking at team statistics, to see what trends can be gleaned. But as the Raiders are about to head to Mudgee for a clash with the Sea Eagles, I couldn't resist any longer. What do the numbers tell us?
Attack: The Raiders have averaged just over three tries per match, ranking ninth in the competition. Completions have been the biggest issue. At 69 per cent, Canberra has the worst completion rate in the league. They rank fifth for errors (12 per game) and are middle of the pack for penalties conceded (six per game).
The Raiders have posted a better possession share than those numbers might suggest - 49 per cent. In part that's due to the Raiders' new found predilection to pass the ball around. They rank first for offloads (14 per game). But more passing does come with increased risk of handling errors.
Try assists and line break assists are mid table or a bit worse. Obviously, that marries up with a ranking of ninth for tries scored. Line breaks are below average (3 per game), and the Raiders are ahead of only the Broncos and Sea Eagles in that department.
The running numbers are worse. The Raiders currently sit in last place for running metres per game (1408 per game), last for post contact metres (464 per game) and 11th for kick return metres (132 per game). Given the Raiders have made more tackle breaks than any other team (37 per game), that's a poor return for post contact metres. The Raiders still run from dummy half a lot - an average of 13 times per game, second only to the Storm. Tom Starling showed in the second half last week how dangerous that can be. The decoy running is up. They're averaging 40 per game (sixth in the league), compared with 33 in 2021 (14th).
Defence: The Raiders rank in the bottom four teams for fewest points conceded (13th, 22 points per game). The Raiders have had a lot to do in defence, but their tackle efficiency has been pretty good (88.6 per cent, ranked fourth). The missed tackle count is relatively low (27 per game, ranked 13th). So is the ineffective tackle count (14 per game, ranked 10th). But like last year, the Raiders are probably conceding too many running metres (1479 per game). That number is affected by the whopping 1739 running metres conceded against the Cowboys. But they have still conceded more, on average, than they have gained, so far, and that's an issue.
The Raiders' right side defence is another issue. 55 per cent of the tries conceded have come on that edge and 27 per cent in the middle. Only 18 per cent have come through the left edge. Semi Valemei isn't on his own, and decisions inside often create problems for centres and wingers. There have been disruptions to combinations. But Valemei has struggled with his positioning at times. Fixing the defensive combinations on the right is no doubt something on the minds of the Raiders' coaches. By the way, 50 per cent of the tries scored are coming on the Raiders' left edge, and only 30 per cent on the right.
Kicking: The Raiders are last for kicks per game (14) - and second last for kicking metres gained per game (374). I'd like to see some more detailed breakdowns of what is happening there. But the NRL doesn't publish them, and the Fox Sports Lab has not yet produced statistics for 2022.
Overall, there is still a lot to work on for the Raiders. There's also plenty of time left to do that. But completions and turnovers are the one thing they will need to address quickly. Because you can't score points without the ball - and handing the ball to the opposition puts too much pressure on the defence.
****
How do those numbers compare to this week's opponents, the Sea Eagles?
They haven't had the best start, their only win coming last week against the Bulldogs. And they only won by a point. They rank 15th in attack (less than two tries per game). They are second last for possession share and line breaks. Only the Titans, Dragons, Tigers and Raiders have conceded more points. So it has been a slow start for Manly.
Why is it so?
The winning margins in matches have contracted this year. Last year, blow outs were common and margins blew out to 18 points on average. Three rounds in, the average winning margins have fallen to just under 10 this year. That's the lowest margins have been since the NRL started in 1998. The number of tries per game have also fallen slightly, from eight per game to just under seven.
Most commentators are attributing that to the further change to the "six again" rule this year - after the NRL went too far in extending "six again" calls last year. This year we have returned to penalties for ruck and 10 metre infringements, when the team in possession is inside its own 40 metre zone. It has added to complexity, but at least it is ameliorating the worst aspects of the "six again" rule.
“It’s pretty clear in the first three rounds that the games have been much more competitive," the NRL's head of football, Graeme Annesley said this week.
"There’s a long way to go and who knows what the rest of the season will have in store but I’d like to think the tweak of the rules around the penalties inside the 40 have given teams the opportunity to get themselves into better position and mount counter attacks."
“It allows the team in possession, who are trying to get the ball out of their own territory, to kick for touch and mount some sort of counter attack in the opposition half.”
This, after he spent all last year telling us how wonderful the new "six again" rules and the blowouts were. But I digress.
Raiders coach Ricky Stuart believes there are also other reasons for the decline in margins. He suggests that the lower ranked teams have improved their rosters, and have caught up in their preparation as well.
But the rule change probably has disrupted some of tactics of coaches like Des Hasler. Manly were one of the teams exploiting the "six again" rule last year. Possibly, the rule change has also helped other teams to contain the attacking brilliance of Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans and to slow the momentum of Manly's attack.
If the Raiders are to win on Saturday, that's going to be crucial. They can't give Trbojevic and Cherry-Evans any space. And the Raiders will have to be spot on in their defence. They'll need line speed, and they can't concede lots of metres.
Oh... and don't drop the ball, please.
****
The Canberra Raiders Cup kicks off on Saturday - with hopes we'll see a completed season in 2022. The past two years have been unfortunately disrupted by the pandemic. But hopefully, we will get to Grand Final day this year. Check out our season preview here. And remember, if you can't get to a local ground, all matches are live streamed by Bar TV Sports. One match is streamed free each week. Other matches can be viewed for a subscription fee, with some of the proceeds helping the local rugby league club of your choice. Whatever way you can, make sure you support the Canberra region's grass roots footy! It produces the Raiders of the future.
****
Every week I rate the Raiders players on a scale of 0-10... and here is the latest points tally. Tell us what you think of the ratings!
Total points
Jack Wighton 22
Joe Tapine 21
Corey Harawira-Naera 20
Josh Papalii 20
Corey Horsburgh 19
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 18
Hudson Young 18
Matt Timoko 18
Tom Starling 18
Elliott Whitehead 17
Semi Valemei 16
Adam Elliott 14
Brad Schneider 14
Emre Guler 14
Sebastian Kris 11
James Schiller 10
Matt Frawley 9
Jordan Rapana 7
Nick Cotric 6
Adrian Trevilyan 4
Josh Hodgson 1
Average points per match
Jack Wighton 7.3
Brad Schneider 7.0
Joe Tapine 7.0
Jordan Rapana 7.0
Corey Harawira-Naera 6.7
Josh Papalii 6.7
Corey Horsburgh 6.3
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 6.0
Hudson Young 6.0
Matt Timoko 6.0
Nick Cotric 6.0
Tom Starling 6.0
Elliott Whitehead 5.7
Sebastian Kris 5.5
Semi Valemei 5.3
James Schiller 5.0
Adam Elliott 4.7
Emre Guler 4.7
Matt Frawley 4.5
Adrian Trevilyan 4.0
Josh Hodgson 1.0
Plus follow us on Facebook: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders