Through green eyes 2022

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RedRaider
Laurie Daley
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by RedRaider »

I thought Cotric was far better than CNK. Safer under the high ball easily and some strong runs. Guler a lucky 3 given his lacklustre performance. He should not be there next week imo. He should not have been there the last few weeks.
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BadnMean
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by BadnMean »

RedRaider wrote: April 15, 2022, 5:11 pm I thought Cotric was far better than CNK. Safer under the high ball easily and some strong runs. Guler a lucky 3 given his lacklustre performance. He should not be there next week imo. He should not have been there the last few weeks.
Cotric was solid enough at what he did and had to do, as you say. The only criticism could be him looking for more work- but if we have both wingers making 16 runs a game then our forwards aren't making any. He was an underwhelming pass mark, which can be overlooked when we had some outright dross surrounding him to worry about.

CNK was outright poor at what he did and what he had to do. Again.

I wonder which way Ricky is going to go here- back guys who try really hard but are too limited to be quality FG'ers (Elliot, CNK) or back guys who have the ability but are not quite firing (CHN, Savage)...
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Seiffert82
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by Seiffert82 »

Dunno what the story is with CNK, but his handling has been terrible since the neck injury.

Not sure if it's a confidence or injury thing, but he is really struggling out there.

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RedRaider
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by RedRaider »

BadnMean wrote: April 15, 2022, 6:26 pm
RedRaider wrote: April 15, 2022, 5:11 pm I thought Cotric was far better than CNK. Safer under the high ball easily and some strong runs. Guler a lucky 3 given his lacklustre performance. He should not be there next week imo. He should not have been there the last few weeks.
Cotric was solid enough at what he did and had to do, as you say. The only criticism could be him looking for more work- but if we have both wingers making 16 runs a game then our forwards aren't making any. He was an underwhelming pass mark, which can be overlooked when we had some outright dross surrounding him to worry about.

CNK was outright poor at what he did and what he had to do. Again.

I wonder which way Ricky is going to go here- back guys who try really hard but are too limited to be quality FG'ers (Elliot, CNK) or back guys who have the ability but are not quite firing (CHN, Savage)...
BnM that was why I thought GEs rating of CNK and Cotric as both 4's did not reflect their performance in the game.

It is imperative that the young blokes be given their opportunity to play FG. Sure they will make some mistakes but so are the older blokes with little up side. Give the young a go I reckon.
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greeneyed
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by greeneyed »

Through green eyes: Why Graham Annesley and the NRL don't actually get it

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A couple of weeks ago, "Through green eyes" returned to the issue of "The unconsciousness of bias" in sports officiating. Specifically, in rugby league. I returned to the issue after first raising it seven years ago.

Recently, Titans coach Justin Holbrook and Cowboys coach Todd Payten made comments to the effect that the "small" clubs, the lower profile clubs tend to miss the "50/50 calls" by NRL officials. It promoted debate among prominent media commentators - who all seemed to agree that unconscious or unrecognised bias exists in the NRL.

The word "bias" triggers the emotions. But remember, unconscious bias is in no way deliberate. Everyone is susceptible to it. This is not something that some disgruntled NRL coaches or fans have made up. The study of unrecognised or unconscious biases in sports officiating is part of a huge body of respected, psychological and sociological research into the cognitive biases of human beings.

It's been suggested that one reason cognitive biases develop is because people often have to make decisions quickly. It's easier on the brain if we can take mental shortcuts, based on previous experiences and prior information. In sport, studies have found that leads to things like star athletes and teams being subconsciously favoured in the decisions of officials. A recent paper, "The issue of unconscious bias in referee decisions in the National Rugby League" provides a summary of the academic research from around the world - and points to some evidence closer to home.

Yesterday, NRL head of football, Graham Annesley responded to the recent public debate.

"The process that the match officials go through, whether it be the bunker or the referees on the field, in making any decision, is based entirely on what they see. Not on going through a thought process of: 'where does this team sit on the ladder'; 'are they one of the high profile teams or one of the teams that doen't have the same profile'; 'how many times have I given a close call to one team as opposed to the other in this game'. There's no such thought process," he said.

"These guys are making decisions, even in the bunker when they're watching replays, their total concentration is on what is actually happening on the video that they're looking at, at that time. And the referees when they're making calls, they're just seeing something and they're reacting instantly. So any concept that these guys are going through a conscious process of saying 'I better give this decision to the higher profile team' or 'the team that's expected to win as opposed to the team that's expected to lose'... They simply respond to what they see."

So clearly Graham Annesley doesn't get it. No one is saying all that. None of the debate has been about conscious or deliberate bias. It is unconscious bias that is the subject of discussion.

He went on.

"Part of the background to what drives some of these thoughts is that teams often that are lower on the ladder will concede more penalties than the opposition at times. And the reason that that happens, often, they don't have the same share of the ball. The teams at the top end of the ladder, one of the reasons they're there are that they control the ball. They spend long periods of time in possession," Annesley said.

"The teams at the other end of the ladder at any given point, maybe they're not playing as well at that time. So they're spending much more time defending. You're much more likely to concede offences when you're defending when you're attacking, so you'll be off side more, you'll be committing offences in the rucks, you'll be, frankly, trying to slow the rucks down. We all know that that's a tactic in our game, to slow the good sides down."

"So these things do become a self fulfilling prophecy. If you're at the bottom end of the ladder, you do tend to concede more than you do if you're at the top end of the ladder. But it doesn't mean when it comes to making individual decisions... that anything is driving that, other than the officials trying to make the right decision."

Except for all the prior information, the things "we all know" about the teams at the bottom end of the ladder. Maybe there's some things "we all know" about the teams at the top as well? Like, "they are just really good in the ruck"? Or "they are just really quick off the line"?

Annesley went on.

"There is no agenda being driven by anybody... There is no expectation from anyone in the game, whether it be in the officiating department or anyone in the administration, that certain teams should win games based on their position on the table, or based on which club they are or which city they're in. It just doesn't exist. I just wanted to try to put to bed this theory that's floating around that somehow, if you're at the bottom end of the table or towards the bottom end of the table, or if you're not considered to be one of the big clubs in the game, that you're going to get some kind of worse deal... It is misguided. It is a misconception."

Sorry, Graham, you've missed the point entirely. No one is suggesting there is any conspiracy. No one is suggesting anyone is doing anything that is deliberately untoward.

But the idea of unconscious biases is widely accepted by experts in psychology and sociology. We're not talking about a "theory that's floating around" because of a post match press conference from a coach or two. Given the large body of academic research, this is not something you can "put to bed" and claim "it just doesn't exist".

If someone at the NRL took the time to have a look at the body of studies, they might be able to make some more informed comment.

One of the first things you need to do, if you're to deal with this problem, is to recognise you may have some unrecognised biases. That they may exist. Even the guy writing a column titled "Through green eyes" gets that.

It is only when you accept that unconscious biases exist - when you recognise you might have some unrecognised biases - that you can start doing something about them. It is past time that the NRL did both.

****

What a time to be a Raiders fan. On a three game losing streak and about to face a team on a 20 game winning streak on their home ground. Oh, and that's where the Raiders have to play the Panthers. On their home ground.

Coach Ricky Stuart has made some changes to the Canberra line up. They are overdue and probably don't go far enough. But, there are limits to the number of rookies that you can throw into a game against the team at the top of the ladder. Maybe if they'd been blooded a little earlier...

If the Raiders win on Sunday, it will be one of the greatest victories in the history of the club. I'd love to see it. I'm not expecting to see it. But hope flickers eternal in the heart of any footy fan.

****

The Canberra Raiders have not appeared in the Grand Final of the Harold Matthews Cup in over 25 years. They last won the premiership in that grade back in 1995.

Last year, the Green Machine finished as the "Matts" wooden spooners.

On Saturday, the Raiders Harold Matthews team will face the Western Suburbs Magpies at Kogarah Jubilee Stadium in a a grand final qualifier.

That is some turnaround, due, in no small part, to coach Peter Marrapodi. He was the NSW Cup coach last year, but has taken over the Matts outfit this year. He's clearly had an impact.

The recent shift in the age limit for Harold Matthews from Under 16s to Under 17s has probably also helped. For some, it's helped open up the possibility of a move to Canberra after school commitments have finished. Others in the team are travelling long distances from towns in the surrounding regions of NSW for training and to play games. Hundreds of kilometres, many hours each week.

Two players - prop Mathias Tomuli-Ah-Koui and winger Jack Clutterbuck - have relocated from Perth to join the club. There are players who commute from Griffith, Leeton, Wagga and the South Coast.

That is a huge commitment from those players and their families.

Whatever the result on Sunday, it will no doubt be worth it.

We saw a wonderful premiership from the Raiders SG Ball team in 2021. Hopefully we will see another team in green on junior reps Grand Final day in 2022.

****

Every week I rate the Raiders players on a scale of 0-10... and here is the points tally, one quarter of the way into the season. Tell us what you think of the ratings!

Total points

Jack Wighton 42
Joe Tapine 42
Josh Papalii 38
Tom Starling 38
Corey Harawira-Naera 37
Corey Horsburgh 37
Matt Timoko 34
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 32
Elliott Whitehead 32
Brad Schneider 31
Semi Valemei 30
Adam Elliott 25
Emre Guler 25
Jordan Rapana 24
Hudson Young 23
Nick Cotric 20
Matt Frawley 11
Ryan Sutton 11
Sebastian Kris 11
James Schiller 10
Adrian Trevilyan 4
Xavier Savage 2
Josh Hodgson 1

Average points per match

Jack Wighton 7.0
Joe Tapine 7.0
Josh Papalii 6.3
Tom Starling 6.3
Brad Schneider 6.2
Corey Harawira-Naera 6.2
Corey Horsburgh 6.2
Jordan Rapana 6.0
Hudson Young 5.8
Matt Timoko 5.7
Ryan Sutton 5.5
Sebastian Kris 5.5
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 5.3
Elliott Whitehead 5.3
James Schiller 5.0
Nick Cotric 5.0
Semi Valemei 5.0
Adam Elliott 4.2
Emre Guler 4.2
Adrian Trevilyan 4.0
Matt Frawley 3.7
Xavier Savage 2.0
Josh Hodgson 1.0

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gerg
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by gerg »

What a load of nonsense from Annersley! The best sides are actually the worst offenders at slowing down the play the ball, and getting away with it. Storm have been doing it for two decades. Roosters as well. That is exhibit A of the unconscious bias problem and clearly its affected the administration as well as the referees.


You only have to watch the Roosters / Warriors game to see the unconscious bias - from the bunker as well. Some horrendous calls against the Warriors.
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RedRaider
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by RedRaider »

Are there stats on penalties for hold downs, inside 10 meters and 6 agains given, GE? That would provide some facts whether Annersley accepts them or not.
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greeneyed
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by greeneyed »

RedRaider wrote: April 22, 2022, 10:22 am Are there stats on penalties for hold downs, inside 10 meters and 6 agains given, GE? That would provide some facts whether Annersley accepts them or not.
Raw numbers by club are probably not enough to provide evidence of unconscious biases. The paper referred to is the most recent study I've seen in an Australian context. It goes back over a long period of data from the NRL and looks at home crowd advantage and success rates under particular referees. The conclusion is that referees are clearly influenced by home crowds and inexperienced referees are more influenced. That is consistent with many international studies and is not that surprising. It is more interesting, for me, that the paper also shows that some clubs fare significantly better or worse under a range of experienced referees. But both indicate unconscious biases are at work.

You can read it here: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 39570/full

No doubt, more complex analysis could be done to explore it further, and it merits further study.
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greeneyed
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by greeneyed »

Through green eyes: As I saw it

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"All of it. Very hard [being stuck in the Raiders' own end in the second half]. It's pretty unique. I don't think we had a play the ball in their half in the second half. On the back of a nine-one penalty count you're forever defending. It wouldn't only been Penrith that beat us by that amount, other teams would've beat us too. if you not getting a play the ball in the opposition's half. All of the above [when asked if that was due to the Raiders, the Panthers or the rub of the green from the referees].

"I have got no thoughts mate [about the crowd mocking the Raiders with their own Viking Clap]. Is that really a big focus point?"

"I was very happy [with the impact of team changes]. I was happy because I think that for 53, 55 minutes it was our best football this season so we've got to build on that. I felt sorry for Harry [Rushton, who was on debut in the loss] but they're a good team, Penrith. It didn't come into my line of thought at all that it was going to be too big a challenge for him. It was right down his alley. He's a tough kid and he's got a lot of first grade in front of him. He's a bloke who's just going to keep on growing and developing with the game."

Canberra Raiders coach Ricky Stuart


2022 Round 7. Penrith Panthers 36 - Canberra Raiders 6. The Canberra Raiders came ready to play. They were determined and showed intent in their defence. The attack was conservative, the aim to keep errors low. It offered little threat. The tactics were to get in the grind. The Raiders were certainly in the game at half time, trailing 14-6. It had been six apiece at the 30 minute mark. But the Panthers strangled the Raiders in the second half - trapping the visitors at their own end for virtually the entire 40 minutes. At times, the Raiders were being forced to kick from their own 10 metre line. And when the Raiders' defence finally cracked, the dam wall broke.





The second half statistics for possession and territory are surely unprecedented in the time of the NRL. The Panthers had 95 per cent of the territory and 65 per cent of possession. The Panthers had 28 tackles in the Raiders' red zone, while the Raiders had none in the Panthers' own 20 metres. For the match as a whole, Penrith had over 60 per cent of the possession and over 75 per cent of the territory. The Raiders made less than 800 running metres. The Panthers gained 1000 metres more with the ball in hand. Only one Raiders player - Josh Papalii - broke the 100 metres gained mark. It took time for the Panthers to get on top, but in the end, their utter dominance was reflected in the scoreline.

There is no doubt. The Panthers are an extremely good team. They deserved to win and to win by a large margin yesterday. They were way better than the Raiders. They are also a team that benefits from "the 50/50 calls", the "rub of the green". They're the Mary Poppins of the NRL - practically perfect in every way. As far as the officials are concerned. The penalty count finished at 11-4 in their favour. Three of the penalties that the Raiders received came in the space of two minutes - between the 76th and 78th minutes, when the game was well over. The Panthers conceded two set re-starts - one for a ruck infringement, another for offside. The Raiders conceded three re-starts.

All that suggests that the Panthers were twice as good in terms of discipline, but from my observation of the game, that was not the case. They are quick off the line in defence, but not that quick. It beggars belief that they were off side just once and infringed in the ruck just once, over 80 minutes.

I've written about "unconscious bias" in refereeing a number of times before, and I think we saw another example yesterday. The worst example came just before half time. Penrith bench player Spencer Leniu dropped the ball in a ruck. It was called a knock on, but the Panthers challenged. The bunker upheld the challenge, saying Corey Horsburgh's arm "moves into the ruck". There was no stripping action, no intent to contact the ball. Every commentator has said it should have been ruled as a loose carry. Instead, PENALTY PANTHERS. To be clear, I'm not suggesting there is any deliberate bias, that there is anything untoward. But the people in the NRL's officiating department need to get their heads around the issue of unconscious bias.

The other big talking point from the game was the animosity between the teams. They clearly don't like each other. The game ended in some push and shove, after Jack Wighton and Stephen Crichton exchanged words. To add to the spice, the Penrith crowd mocked the Raiders with their own Viking Clap, twice during the game, and once afterwards. There is no doubt. The Panthers are an extremely good team. But they're also a team that is arrogant to the point of poor sportsmanship. The example being set seems to rub off on the crowd. It is excused by the Penrith coach Ivan Cleary. In my view, it's not the sort of behaviour we want to see in our sport.

None of that makes one bit of difference to the Raiders today. They sit in 15th place on the ladder, with a record worse than every team but the Bulldogs. Two wins, five losses. Canberra has been significantly impacted by injury - with hooker Josh Hodgson out for the season and halfback Jamal Fogarty out for half the season. Young centre, Harley Smith Shields is also out for the season. It has left the team floundering.

But injury is only part of the story. Some key players - like fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad - have been out of form. The second half fades have again raised questions about the fitness of the team - despite the change in the focus of pre-season training. The Raiders started the year with the aim of throwing the ball around and playing with some width. But the team doesn't seem to be able to execute those tactics. The completion rates have been poor, putting pressure on the defence. The kicking game has been ineffective. The response seems to be a shift back towards the "grind", to one out football, as the coaches search for tactical solutions. I'm not sure they know, right now, what sort of team they want the Raiders of 2022 to be.

The results in yesterday's lower grades add to the grim situation. It was a triple header at Penrith Stadium, with Canberra's Jersey Flegg team losing, 64-16, to the Panthers. The Raiders then lost, 44-12, in NSW Cup. The lower grades have been severely disrupted by the pandemic in recent years. There is a rash of injuries in the Raiders' lower grades too. But Canberra has only recently got back into the game of running their own NSW Cup and Flegg teams - and the lack of investment is now showing. The decision to return to a full complement of lower grade teams should pay off in the longer run. In the short term, there are some players in NSW Cup who merit consideration for promotion to first grade - but, the options for Ricky Stuart are probably constrained.

Stats that mattered? As mentioned, the Panthers dominated possession and territory. The Raiders completed at 70 per cent, the Panthers at 82 per cent. That showed in all the attacking statistics. The Panthers made more runs (214-130), running metres (1785-779), kick return metres (281-45), post contact metres (536-265), metres per set (39-26), offloads (10-7), line breaks (6-1) and tackle breaks (34-15).

Desperate to get out of their own end, the Raiders kicked long, gaining more metres (626-421) from fewer kicks (15-21). Penrith was able to put in seven grubbers, the Raiders none. The Panthers forced four line drop outs, the Raiders none. Canberra defused just over half the Penrith kicks (56 per cent) - while the Panthers posted a 100 per cent kick defusal rate.

Canberra's defence was good for a good part of the game. But hey had to tackle much more (402-269 tackles made) - and missed much more (34-15). Ineffective tackles were close to even (Raiders 15, Panthers 13), with neither team offloading much. That translated into a slightly better effective tackle rate for the Panthers (91 per cent, 89 per cent for the Raiders). It is remarkable the Raiders held on for so long in the match, really. But six tries to one ultimately told the story.

Memorable moments? Canberra produced one try, a very good pass from Tom Starling paying off for Joe Tapine. Starling held it up for just long enough to put Tapine into the hole. Corey Horsburgh pulled off a memorable tackle on former Raider, Scott Sorensen. That one should definitely be on the list of contenders for Raiders tackle of the year. But that was the extent of the memorable moments for the Raiders.

Best performers?

Josh Papalii. 14 runs for 106 metres, 41 post contact metres, two offloads, 28 tackles, 100 per cent tackle efficiency.

Joseph Tapine. One try, 11 runs for 79 metres, 21 post contact metres, one line break, six tackle breaks, one offload, 38 tackles, 95 per cent tackle efficiency, one error.

Top tacklers: Tom Starling 49, Ryan Sutton 46, Corey Harawira-Naera 41, Hudson Young 40
Most metres gained: Josh Papalii 106, Joseph Tapine 79, Adam Elliott 77

My player ratings:

Jordan Rapana 5
Nick Cotric 4
Matt Timoko 4
Semi Valemei 4
Xavier Savage 3
Jack Wighton 5
Brad Schneider 6
Josh Papalii 6
Tom Starling 5
Joe Tapine 6
Corey Harawira-Naera 5
Hudson Young 6
Adam Elliott 6

Ryan Sutton 6
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 3
Harry Rushton 4
Corey Horsburgh 4

Do you agree with the ratings? Let us know!

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RedRaider
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by RedRaider »

I thought HorsPower was better than a 4 GE. The one on one tackle you have mentioned but he was solid in pretty much everything he did. I would have had him as a 5 or 6. CHN was the disappointment for me. Too much lost ball to go with the kick off which went out on the full. He was probably fatigued from all the defensive work he did. CNK should not be selected in the 17 next week for mine. I am hoping Kris will be available. Any news on Trevilyan?
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greeneyed
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by greeneyed »

The last I heard on Trevilyan was that his hamstring would keep him out one or two weeks. Which means he should have already been back.
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CentralCoastRaider
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by CentralCoastRaider »

Besides Rapana, the entire backline needs an overhaul. When was the last time you saw our Centre’s and Winger’s make clean line breaks?

CNK and Cotric are half the players they were and Savage with his limited time on the field this year has made numerous mistakes.

Wighton is too inconsistent and Schneider is too inexperienced.
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by RedRaider »

greeneyed wrote: April 25, 2022, 1:37 pm The last I heard on Trevilyan was that his hamstring would keep him out one or two weeks. Which means he should have already been back.
Thanks GE. I wonder what is going on behind the scenes and with Mr T's injury. We now have Zac Woolford back with the Raiders so our 9 stocks are being shored up. I hope to see Trevilyan back in green soon.
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by dubby »

Our problem is now going to be confidence.
The spiral of silence refers to the idea that when people fail to speak, the price of speaking rises. As the price to speak rises, still fewer speak out, which further causes the price to rise, so that fewer people yet will speak out, until a whole culture or nation is silenced. This is what happened in Germany.

If you do not speak, you are not being neutral, but are contributing to the success of the thing you refuse to name and condemn.
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by Billy Walker »

I was happy with your ratings GE until I read Red’s comments. Definitely agree that Hors was quite good.
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greeneyed
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by greeneyed »

Corey only played 25 minutes, so his numbers need to be put in that context. But four runs for 17 metres and one post contact metre isn't great, 27 tackles pretty good. That's a tackle a minute. Then there's a handling error and penalty conceded. A four is pretty good rating, in my view, given he only played a little over a quarter of the game.
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by Greenev »

CentralCoastRaider wrote: April 25, 2022, 2:10 pm Besides Rapana, the entire backline needs an overhaul. When was the last time you saw our Centre’s and Winger’s make clean line breaks?

CNK and Cotric are half the players they were and Savage with his limited time on the field this year has made numerous mistakes.

Wighton is too inconsistent and Schneider is too inexperienced.
The problem isn't the entire backline, its the fact we have nobody running into holes at speed, no attacking structure or set plays and we cant even seem to find space for any of our outside backs, overlaps etc..

This comes down to the coaching tactics and our team not making enough metres forward, compressing their defensive line to create space for our outside backs.
Yes savage has had a few errors but he will be better and learn from the run, and we haven't even been able to give him any quality ball in space at all which would unlock his best weapon which is speed.
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by Billy Walker »

greeneyed wrote: April 25, 2022, 7:22 pm Corey only played 25 minutes, so his numbers need to be put in that context. But four runs for 17 metres and one post contact metre isn't great, 27 tackles pretty good. That's a tackle a minute. Then there's a handling error and penalty conceded. A four is pretty good rating, in my view, given he only played a little over a quarter of the game.
Yeah hard to argue that. I would have said he had bigger minutes than that. He had good impact for just 25 mins. Hope he gets more time next week.
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by BJ »

Good point Greenev.

I’m concerned that our players pass like those players from the 90s, not the draw and fast hands pass that Storm, Roosters and lately Panthers have perfected.

It’s like the under 8s where they just pass the ball to the person next to them without engaging the defensive line.
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by Greenev »

BJ wrote: April 25, 2022, 7:54 pm Good point Greenev.

I’m concerned that our players pass like those players from the 90s, not the draw and fast hands pass that Storm, Roosters and lately Panthers have perfected.

It’s like the under 8s where they just pass the ball to the person next to them without engaging the defensive line.
Yep mate, completely agree and we’ve been playing as such for years now, another problem we have is we can never seem to quickly set ourselves up for attacking plays, even if our forwards get a roll on and get quick play the balls, we don’t have any structure set up to actually attack gaps.. here’s hoping Fogarty can have a voice and actually get our guys into position quicker, that’s if we actually have any set plays
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by greeneyed »

Through green eyes: Game of two halves

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When I was growing up, my late uncle was a rugby league coach, with the club that is now known as the Brisbane Tigers. He coached from the junior grades up to "reggies" over many years. Won a reserve grade grand final.

Something he loved to say is that rugby league is a game of two halves. It's an old adage, but a good one.

Whether my uncle's teams were in the lead or not, he'd often tell his charges that the half time score was "nil all". That he wanted his team to get out there and "win" the second half. Even if winning the game seemed unlikely.

If it had been a poor performance in the first half, he wanted his team to wipe the slate clean. If it had been a good performance, he wanted to make sure his team didn't take the foot off the pedal.

A game of two halves. For the Canberra Raiders, it has never been more true.

The following simple statistics - as shared today in the NRL.com preview of the Raiders' clash with the Warriors - are stark.

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The Raiders have only "won" three halves of football so far this year: the first half against the Sharks, the second half against the Titans, and the first half of the clash with the Cowboys at Canberra Stadium.

They have "lost" the second half in every game, but for the record equalling comeback of Round 3. They also have failed to score a point in the second half of four matches so far.

The Raiders have conceded 16 tries in the second half in 2022, while scoring just six. In their last two games, they have not scored a try in the final 60 minutes.

It is not a new problem. Since the beginning of 2020, the Raiders have given up double digit leads in eight matches, more than any other club.

Why is it so?

Former Rabbitohs and Broncos coach, and Raiders old boy, Anthony Seibold took a stab at the reasons for the second half fades in the NRL.com preview.

Fitness? The Raiders have a new head of performance, Jeremy Hickmans. He worked with Wayne Bennett for a long time and was there when the Broncos and Dragons won premierships. He took a new approach to pre-season training this year, with the focus on the speed of Vlandysball. Seibold dismissed this possible reason. I think the jury is still out, myself.

Game management? The Raiders lost two crucial spine players before the season was 10 minutes old. Half Jamal Fogarty hasn't played a premiership game with the club due to a knee injury. He won't be back before Round 15. Hooker Josh Hodgson is out for the season, suffering another ACL, early in the first match of the year. So for Seibold, the young spine is one explanation.

Resilience? This is the other explanation for Seibold. He didn't say much more than that. But it is an issue that has been identified from inside the Raiders' camp.

"I reckon it's just mental stuff," Hudson Young said succinctly yesterday.

I suspect part of the story is on field leadership. One club captain, Jarrod Croker, is playing in NSW Cup. It seems like he's never going to be selected again in first grade. The other captain, Elliott Whitehead, was once an 80 minute player. This year he's averaged 59 minutes, and played for only 30 minutes against the Sea Eagles.

However, leadership is not just about who has the (c) beside their name. That links back to the issue of game management and organisation. There's no quick solution to that. It takes time and patience for young players to develop. And time to see if they're going to get there.

There are other factors at work.

The Raiders started the year with the aim of implementing a new style of attack. They were looking to offload more and to play with more width. The forwards had a licence to pass. The plan was for Elliott Whitehead to be a modern ball playing lock. Those plans haven't come off.

The team has been unable to execute - and the Raiders now have the worst completion rate in the league. Offloads have often been ineffective offloads. Too often the forwards have not earned the right for the team to play with width.

The lack of possession puts pressure on other parts of the Raiders' game. There is a vicious circle at work. The turnovers mean the Raiders concede territorial advantage. The forwards struggle to get the team out of their own end. The punch off the bench has been particularly poor. The kicking game fails to compensate. Not only are the Raiders last for running metres, they are second last for kicking metres. Discipline falls by the wayside. The Raiders have conceded more penalties than any team, except the Storm. And all that puts pressure on the defence. Only the Warriors and Bulldogs have conceded more tries.

As another old adage goes, you can't win games of rugby league without the ball.

Last weekend, the team reverted to the grind - with the aim of reducing the errors and improving the completions. And while the coach said that the Raiders produced their best 50 minutes of football in last Sunday's loss to the Panthers, I still saw an awful lot of that vicious circle.

As it turns out, the Panthers are not only better at Vlandysball than most every other team, they are better at the grind too.

Sadly, the match against Penrith highlighted how far behind the top teams the Raiders are in 2022.

I'd like to think the solution is as simple as telling the team to play for 80 minutes. To get out there and win the first half... and then the second half.

But the problems are complex and interrelated. The fixes aren't simple. They'll require more accountability for performances. They'll take time to address. In the meantime, expect some tough months ahead.

****

Every week I rate the Raiders players on a scale of 0-10... and here is the latest points tally. Tell us what you think of the ratings!

Total points

Joe Tapine 48
Jack Wighton 47
Josh Papalii 44
Tom Starling 43
Corey Harawira-Naera 42
Corey Horsburgh 41
Matt Timoko 38
Brad Schneider 37
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 35
Semi Valemei 34
Elliott Whitehead 32
Adam Elliott 31
Hudson Young 29
Jordan Rapana 29
Emre Guler 25
Nick Cotric 24
Ryan Sutton 17
Matt Frawley 11
Sebastian Kris 11
James Schiller 10
Xavier Savage 5
Adrian Trevilyan 4
Harry Rushton 4
Josh Hodgson 1

Average points per match

Joe Tapine 6.9
Jack Wighton 6.7
Josh Papalii 6.3
Brad Schneider 6.2
Tom Starling 6.1
Corey Harawira-Naera 6.0
Corey Horsburgh 5.9
Hudson Young 5.8
Jordan Rapana 5.8
Ryan Sutton 5.7
Sebastian Kris 5.5
Matt Timoko 5.4
Elliott Whitehead 5.3
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 5.0
James Schiller 5.0
Semi Valemei 4.9
Nick Cotric 4.8
Adam Elliott 4.4
Emre Guler 4.2
Adrian Trevilyan 4.0
Harry Rushton 4.0
Matt Frawley 3.7
Xavier Savage 2.5
Josh Hodgson 1.0

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The Nickman
Mal Meninga
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by The Nickman »

dubby wrote: April 25, 2022, 3:08 pm Our problem is now going to be confidence.
And awful coaching leading to no good attacking structure or format, poor defence and no footballing nouse amongst the playing group.

But yeah, confidence is the problem.
Billy Walker
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by Billy Walker »

The Nickman wrote: April 28, 2022, 2:59 pm
dubby wrote: April 25, 2022, 3:08 pm Our problem is now going to be confidence.
And awful coaching leading to no good attacking structure or format, poor defence and no footballing nouse amongst the playing group.

But yeah, confidence is the problem.
I’m confident we aren’t making the 8.
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gerg
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by gerg »

The Nickman wrote:
dubby wrote: April 25, 2022, 3:08 pm Our problem is now going to be confidence.
And awful coaching leading to no good attacking structure or format, poor defence and no footballing nouse amongst the playing group.

But yeah, confidence is the problem.
I think our problem is that we have nothing but problems. Top to bottom.
Shoving it in your face since 2017
Billy Walker
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by Billy Walker »

gergreg wrote: April 28, 2022, 6:18 pm
The Nickman wrote:
dubby wrote: April 25, 2022, 3:08 pm Our problem is now going to be confidence.
And awful coaching leading to no good attacking structure or format, poor defence and no footballing nouse amongst the playing group.

But yeah, confidence is the problem.
I think our problem is that we have nothing but problems. Top to bottom.
I’d say you’re doing better than me if you can identify a top amongst this bottom running rabble!
LastRaider
John Ferguson
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by LastRaider »

It’s time for change. It’s simple as that and it starts from the top. Ricky Stuart needs to retire and give him a gracious farewell this year whilst we start the hunt for our 2023 head coach.

Once we have a coach, we can then start the rebuild and the healing process can begin


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dubby
Don Furner
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by dubby »

Listening to a bunch of podcasts and figures in the game, when it comes to reviewing the Raiders EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM has no idea what's wrong.

Whether it's 100% footy, SEN, NRL360, 6 tackles with Gus, bloke in a bar, Matty Johns etc..... they simply shrug and say...not sure what's wrong at the Raiders.
The spiral of silence refers to the idea that when people fail to speak, the price of speaking rises. As the price to speak rises, still fewer speak out, which further causes the price to rise, so that fewer people yet will speak out, until a whole culture or nation is silenced. This is what happened in Germany.

If you do not speak, you are not being neutral, but are contributing to the success of the thing you refuse to name and condemn.
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greeneyed
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by greeneyed »

dubby wrote: April 28, 2022, 9:52 pm Listening to a bunch of podcasts and figures in the game, when it comes to reviewing the Raiders EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM has no idea what's wrong.

Whether it's 100% footy, SEN, NRL360, 6 tackles with Gus, bloke in a bar, Matty Johns etc..... they simply shrug and say...not sure what's wrong at the Raiders.
They don’t even really talk about it. What’s your view dubs? I’ve set mine out above. 😀
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The Nickman
Mal Meninga
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by The Nickman »

It’s pretty **** obvious for anyone with a clue what’s wrong with the raiders... yet none of the so-called “experts” want to voice it
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gerg
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by gerg »

The Nickman wrote:It’s pretty **** obvious for anyone with a clue what’s wrong with the raiders... yet none of the so-called “experts” want to voice it
The fans are clearly the problem with the club at the moment, along with the bounce of the ball, rub of the green and being a little unlucky. How the hell could any club overcome these obstacles?
Shoving it in your face since 2017
The Nickman
Mal Meninga
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by The Nickman »

gergreg wrote:
The Nickman wrote:It’s pretty **** obvious for anyone with a clue what’s wrong with the raiders... yet none of the so-called “experts” want to voice it
The fans are clearly the problem with the club at the moment, along with the bounce of the ball, rub of the green and being a little unlucky. How the hell could any club overcome these obstacles?
Yeah, all these armchair experts who have never played at NRL level and never coached a football team really should just STFU and sit down, shouldn’t they?

We should just be grateful we have a team to support, really
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dubby
Don Furner
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by dubby »

greeneyed wrote: April 28, 2022, 9:57 pm
dubby wrote: April 28, 2022, 9:52 pm Listening to a bunch of podcasts and figures in the game, when it comes to reviewing the Raiders EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM has no idea what's wrong.

Whether it's 100% footy, SEN, NRL360, 6 tackles with Gus, bloke in a bar, Matty Johns etc… they simply shrug and say...not sure what's wrong at the Raiders.
They don’t even really talk about it. What’s your view dubs? I’ve set mine out above. 😀

Fergus, there's a few things.

1. Culture. It's not right. When you have players wives bagging Ricky via social media it appears that the players are frustrated. Tapine, Sutton and their partners blowing up publicly over selection and interchange (meanwhile the Tapines were pushing the anti vaccination agenda) it is just… wrong. You don't see that happen across any other sport in this country!

To me that says the players think they know better than the coach. That's a lack of respect.

Which leads me to leadership. We lack leadership among the players. Papa is not a natural leader. He needs to let his on field actions do his talking. I remember Sia saying that Papa was most likely to take short cuts and the easy way out. Papa needs to grow up.

EW. Was once the most under rated player in the game. Raiders gave him a unnecessary long extension now fans detest him because he is not the player he was. He's on the down slope. And they made him skipper.

We lack good leadership in the playing group. Simple.

Depth. We are struggling. Time to face a few years of being position 10-14 while we develop some quality depth.

Coach. Ricky loves this club and is determined to make it successful. But there is a disconnect between training and on field performance. I've no idea why.
Ricky doesn't use interchange well. I liked his effort to implement 2nd phase play but it wasn't executed properly. That's on the players.

Ricky can improve. He needs to stop relying on his gut at times and plan, he needs to stop his holding back of some young players (I think Schiller should be given a chance over Semi), and go back to what was working 2 years ago.

We don't need to reinvent the wheel here.

We do need to overhaul our roster, though.

1, 9, 13, centres and a back rower. Please
The spiral of silence refers to the idea that when people fail to speak, the price of speaking rises. As the price to speak rises, still fewer speak out, which further causes the price to rise, so that fewer people yet will speak out, until a whole culture or nation is silenced. This is what happened in Germany.

If you do not speak, you are not being neutral, but are contributing to the success of the thing you refuse to name and condemn.
Billy Walker
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by Billy Walker »

That’s a really good analysis Dubby. The only thing I’d add is that culture, leadership and standards all start at the top and the CEO at this club seems held to little or no account.
The Nickman
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by The Nickman »

Coach doesn’t deserve another shot to improve. Overhaul the coach first and then let the new guy decide what to do with the roster.

Sacking half of what should be a fairly decent team to save a poorly performing coach is just lunacy.
Billy Walker
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Re: Through green eyes 2022

Post by Billy Walker »

The Nickman wrote: April 29, 2022, 8:14 pm Coach doesn’t deserve another shot to improve. Overhaul the coach first and then let the new guy decide what to do with the roster.

Sacking half of what should be a fairly decent team to save a poorly performing coach is just lunacy.
Yeah coach has to go but take his CEO mate with him.
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