The Politics Thread 2022
Moderator: GH Moderators
- Sid
- Ricky Stuart
- Posts: 9990
- Joined: May 15, 2015, 8:47 pm
- Favourite Player: Shannon Boyd
- Location: Darwin, N.T.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
GOLD Dr. Zaius
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Would have won Boogs - 2016, 2017, 2018
1 part green, 1 part machine
1 part green, 1 part machine
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Yes indeed. Once you see it, it can't be unseen.
For bonus points, who does this candidate represent?
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
- Sterlk
- David Furner
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: July 20, 2008, 10:41 am
- Location: Canberra - Raiders season ticket
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Little known fact - you don't have to go to six above the line for the Senate.
They tell you to on the ballot paper, though that direction isn't directly related to whether the vote is valid. There's a massive document on the website that explains it in detail.
I wouldn't recommend disregarding the instructions unless you know what you're doing, though. In any case, better to put a useless preference against a minor you don't really care for than confuse the oldies who've worked every election since the dawn of time with obscure rules they don't know.
- Sid
- Ricky Stuart
- Posts: 9990
- Joined: May 15, 2015, 8:47 pm
- Favourite Player: Shannon Boyd
- Location: Darwin, N.T.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
That'd have to be the One Nation candidate going by your description of themDr Zaius wrote:Yes indeed. Once you see it, it can't be unseen.
For bonus points, who does this candidate represent?
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Would have won Boogs - 2016, 2017, 2018
1 part green, 1 part machine
1 part green, 1 part machine
- Northern Raider
- Mal Meninga
- Posts: 32572
- Joined: June 19, 2007, 8:17 am
- Favourite Player: Dean Lance
- Location: Greener pastures
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
This could be the fun way to kill time leading up to election day. Describing your local candidates head shots.
* The author assumes no responsibility for the topicality, correctness, completeness or quality of information provided.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Yes indeed!Sid wrote:That'd have to be the One Nation candidate going by your description of themDr Zaius wrote:Yes indeed. Once you see it, it can't be unseen.
For bonus points, who does this candidate represent?
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Third and final. For the trifecta. Who do we have here?
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
- Northern Raider
- Mal Meninga
- Posts: 32572
- Joined: June 19, 2007, 8:17 am
- Favourite Player: Dean Lance
- Location: Greener pastures
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
I assume that's not the guy who stuck his head in too many scrums so going for the UAP Christian cult leaders wife.Dr Zaius wrote: ↑May 15, 2022, 9:07 amYes indeed!Sid wrote:That'd have to be the One Nation candidate going by your description of themDr Zaius wrote:Yes indeed. Once you see it, it can't be unseen.
For bonus points, who does this candidate represent?
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Third and final. For the trifecta. Who do we have here?
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
* The author assumes no responsibility for the topicality, correctness, completeness or quality of information provided.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Three from three! Well done team.Northern Raider wrote:I assume that's not the guy who stuck his head in too many scrums so going for the UAP Christian cult leaders wife.Dr Zaius wrote: ↑May 15, 2022, 9:07 amYes indeed!Sid wrote:That'd have to be the One Nation candidate going by your description of themDr Zaius wrote:Yes indeed. Once you see it, it can't be unseen.Begbie wrote: Well it has to be the liberal democrat candidate?
For bonus points, who does this candidate represent?
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Third and final. For the trifecta. Who do we have here?
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
- gangrenous
- Laurie Daley
- Posts: 16704
- Joined: May 12, 2007, 10:42 pm
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-es ... b60902fc08
Quit trying to change things on the first home buyer side, jacking up prices and raiding their super.
Do something about reducing the attractiveness as an investment asset you bastards.
Quit trying to change things on the first home buyer side, jacking up prices and raiding their super.
Do something about reducing the attractiveness as an investment asset you bastards.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Hasn't this been proposed before and decided that it was a bad move to use superannuation for anything but retirement?gangrenous wrote:https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-es ... b60902fc08
Quit trying to change things on the first home buyer side, jacking up prices and raiding their super.
Do something about reducing the attractiveness as an investment asset you bastards.
Shoving it in your face since 2017
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Just about every study I've seen referenced says that the single best way to avoid poverty in retirement is to own your own home.gergreg wrote:Hasn't this been proposed before and decided that it was a bad move to use superannuation for anything but retirement?gangrenous wrote:https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-es ... b60902fc08
Quit trying to change things on the first home buyer side, jacking up prices and raiding their super.
Do something about reducing the attractiveness as an investment asset you bastards.
I don't think this is a terrible idea.
Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk
Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
You want moderation because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that forum -- you need me on that forum. We use words like "stay on topic," "use the appropriate forum," "please delete." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very moderation that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you get a green handle and edit a post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think about moderation.
-
- Mal Meninga
- Posts: 51180
- Joined: June 25, 2012, 9:53 am
- Favourite Player: Hodgo
- Location: Rockhampton, Central Queensland
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Yeah I do, but I’m nowhere near as confident as last time around.gangrenous wrote:Still calling an LNP win Nickman?
Based on ScoMo today you’re more confident than he is.
I voted the other day and in the end I voted Libs, but like TR I actually really struggled this time, I actually came pretty close to voting Labor. Our seat is a safe LNP stronghold though, so it makes no real difference. And like Zaius I really struggled with the 6 votes for the senate!
This is one election that I don’t really care if Labor wins, I actually think Australia is very good at electing the correct government at the time. If the Libs retain power they deserve it, but if Labor gets up like everyone seems to think, then the country wants change.
I still think there might be a bit of an upset on the cards, but maybe that’s because I reside in central Queensland and most people seem pretty confident of an LNP win up here?
- gangrenous
- Laurie Daley
- Posts: 16704
- Joined: May 12, 2007, 10:42 pm
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
That’s not really talking at all to the impact of the mechanism.T_R wrote:Just about every study I've seen referenced says that the single best way to avoid poverty in retirement is to own your own home.gergreg wrote:Hasn't this been proposed before and decided that it was a bad move to use superannuation for anything but retirement?gangrenous wrote:https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-es ... b60902fc08
Quit trying to change things on the first home buyer side, jacking up prices and raiding their super.
Do something about reducing the attractiveness as an investment asset you bastards.
I don't think this is a terrible idea.
Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk
Why should that be achieved by undermining the point of superannuation in having your investment compounding? How is it not better to take the pressure out of investment side of housing to allow those people to afford a home and keep their super?
I see why the LNP love it, undermines super while keeping upward pressure on housing.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Super these days is pretty crappy, as in you only get out what you put in, so there is potential for people to severely impact any superannuation they may receive. I'm sure there are caps on how much people can draw down though? I remember reading a few years back an article that showed that most politicians have investment properties - that old Qld guy had over 30 properties, sorry name slips me now. Found it.T_R wrote:Just about every study I've seen referenced says that the single best way to avoid poverty in retirement is to own your own home.gergreg wrote:Hasn't this been proposed before and decided that it was a bad move to use superannuation for anything but retirement?gangrenous wrote:https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-es ... b60902fc08
Quit trying to change things on the first home buyer side, jacking up prices and raiding their super.
Do something about reducing the attractiveness as an investment asset you bastards.
I don't think this is a terrible idea.
Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk
Edit... link didn't work, but the SMH article is titled - Houses of Parliament: politicians own an estimated $370m of property
Shoving it in your face since 2017
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Sorry, I thought we were talking about reality. I keep forgetting that this page is frequented by dormroom revolutionaries.gangrenous wrote: ↑May 16, 2022, 6:48 pmThat’s not really talking at all to the impact of the mechanism.T_R wrote:Just about every study I've seen referenced says that the single best way to avoid poverty in retirement is to own your own home.gergreg wrote:Hasn't this been proposed before and decided that it was a bad move to use superannuation for anything but retirement?gangrenous wrote:https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-es ... b60902fc08
Quit trying to change things on the first home buyer side, jacking up prices and raiding their super.
Do something about reducing the attractiveness as an investment asset you bastards.
I don't think this is a terrible idea.
Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk
Why should that be achieved by undermining the point of superannuation in having your investment compounding? How is it not better to take the pressure out of investment side of housing to allow those people to afford a home and keep their super?
I see why the LNP love it, undermines super while keeping upward pressure on housing.
Of course, there's only two things that will take the heat out of housing - Substantially increasing supply or, probably, completely removing negative gearing. But since neither party have anything approaching a meaningful policy in regards either of those, then all I'm doing is comparing the silly little tweaks around the side of things that each of the majors are offering. In that context, this isn't such a bad idea - housing has performed at a similar rate to the super funds for many years, and the law requires capital gains to be re-deposited. Makes as much sense as anything else, which is very little.
But why get worked up on it? Shorten tried to make actual changes and lost an unlosable election. Nothing will change, no matter who wins.
Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
You want moderation because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that forum -- you need me on that forum. We use words like "stay on topic," "use the appropriate forum," "please delete." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very moderation that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you get a green handle and edit a post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think about moderation.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Cap was $50k @ 40% of total holdings, I believe. Not really sure what your point about politicians and housing investments was about. I own a fair number of properties, too, and wouldn't be opposed to a winding back of negative gearing.gergreg wrote: ↑May 16, 2022, 6:51 pmSuper these days is pretty crappy, as in you only get out what you put in, so there is potential for people to severely impact any superannuation they may receive. I'm sure there are caps on how much people can draw down though? I remember reading a few years back an article that showed that most politicians have investment properties - that old Qld guy had over 30 properties, sorry name slips me now. Found it.T_R wrote:Just about every study I've seen referenced says that the single best way to avoid poverty in retirement is to own your own home.gergreg wrote:Hasn't this been proposed before and decided that it was a bad move to use superannuation for anything but retirement?gangrenous wrote:https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-es ... b60902fc08
Quit trying to change things on the first home buyer side, jacking up prices and raiding their super.
Do something about reducing the attractiveness as an investment asset you bastards.
I don't think this is a terrible idea.
Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk
Edit... link didn't work, but the SMH article is titled - Houses of Parliament: politicians own an estimated $370m of property
Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
You want moderation because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that forum -- you need me on that forum. We use words like "stay on topic," "use the appropriate forum," "please delete." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very moderation that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you get a green handle and edit a post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think about moderation.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Politicians have too much to lose to make significant or effective change.T_R wrote:Cap was $50k @ 40% of total holdings, I believe. Not really sure what your point about politicians and housing investments was about. I own a fair number of properties, too, and wouldn't be opposed to a winding back of negative gearing.gergreg wrote: ↑May 16, 2022, 6:51 pmSuper these days is pretty crappy, as in you only get out what you put in, so there is potential for people to severely impact any superannuation they may receive. I'm sure there are caps on how much people can draw down though? I remember reading a few years back an article that showed that most politicians have investment properties - that old Qld guy had over 30 properties, sorry name slips me now. Found it.T_R wrote:Just about every study I've seen referenced says that the single best way to avoid poverty in retirement is to own your own home.gergreg wrote:Hasn't this been proposed before and decided that it was a bad move to use superannuation for anything but retirement?gangrenous wrote:https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-es ... b60902fc08
Quit trying to change things on the first home buyer side, jacking up prices and raiding their super.
Do something about reducing the attractiveness as an investment asset you bastards.
I don't think this is a terrible idea.
Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk
Edit... link didn't work, but the SMH article is titled - Houses of Parliament: politicians own an estimated $370m of property
Shoving it in your face since 2017
- gangrenous
- Laurie Daley
- Posts: 16704
- Joined: May 12, 2007, 10:42 pm
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
I’m frustrated by the situation that screws around the edges in ways that sound fair on the face of it but generally just makes things worse.T_R wrote:Sorry, I thought we were talking about reality. I keep forgetting that this page is frequented by dormroom revolutionaries.gangrenous wrote: ↑May 16, 2022, 6:48 pmThat’s not really talking at all to the impact of the mechanism.T_R wrote:Just about every study I've seen referenced says that the single best way to avoid poverty in retirement is to own your own home.gergreg wrote:Hasn't this been proposed before and decided that it was a bad move to use superannuation for anything but retirement?gangrenous wrote:https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-es ... b60902fc08
Quit trying to change things on the first home buyer side, jacking up prices and raiding their super.
Do something about reducing the attractiveness as an investment asset you bastards.
I don't think this is a terrible idea.
Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk
Why should that be achieved by undermining the point of superannuation in having your investment compounding? How is it not better to take the pressure out of investment side of housing to allow those people to afford a home and keep their super?
I see why the LNP love it, undermines super while keeping upward pressure on housing.
Of course, there's only two things that will take the heat out of housing - Substantially increasing supply or, probably, completely removing negative gearing. But since neither party have anything approaching a meaningful policy in regards either of those, then all I'm doing is comparing the silly little tweaks around the side of things that each of the majors are offering. In that context, this isn't such a bad idea - housing has performed at a similar rate to the super funds for many years, and the law requires capital gains to be re-deposited. Makes as much sense as anything else, which is very little.
But why get worked up on it? Shorten tried to make actual changes and lost an unlosable election. Nothing will change, no matter who wins.
It’s clearly not an election issue. Since Labor just adopted this policy without evening knowing the details to avoid any point of difference.
- Sterlk
- David Furner
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: July 20, 2008, 10:41 am
- Location: Canberra - Raiders season ticket
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Weird they're so confident, unless you mean that the Coalition will win QLD specifically, which they almost certainly will. The fact that you struggled so much to do what you usually(?) do and vote LNP in an LNP stronghold, in the country's most conservative state, possibly says more than the rest of it.The Nickman wrote: ↑May 16, 2022, 8:46 amYeah I do, but I’m nowhere near as confident as last time around.gangrenous wrote:Still calling an LNP win Nickman?
Based on ScoMo today you’re more confident than he is.
I voted the other day and in the end I voted Libs, but like TR I actually really struggled this time, I actually came pretty close to voting Labor. Our seat is a safe LNP stronghold though, so it makes no real difference. And like Zaius I really struggled with the 6 votes for the senate!
This is one election that I don’t really care if Labor wins, I actually think Australia is very good at electing the correct government at the time. If the Libs retain power they deserve it, but if Labor gets up like everyone seems to think, then the country wants change.
I still think there might be a bit of an upset on the cards, but maybe that’s because I reside in central Queensland and most people seem pretty confident of an LNP win up here?
From the confidence you're seeing I get a sense that QLD may be overestimating its own importance, potentially from QLD's repudiation costing Bill Shorten last time, and there might be a bit of a view from many a QLDer that they're kingmakers. At the end of the day though it's a numbers game, and while QLDs 30 seats aren't nothing, their likely continuing rejection of Labor probably isn't going to do it when there's 121 other seats out there and the general mood seems so volatile in a singular direction.
The Coalition currently has a majority of 1. On balance, they need to hold everything they've got, which seems an impossible task given current circumstances. I'll never say never, given 2019, but I'm not seeing it in the tea leaves.
Not long until we find out for sure.
- Sterlk
- David Furner
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: July 20, 2008, 10:41 am
- Location: Canberra - Raiders season ticket
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Commentator's curse. There's some shifting sentiment on the wind.
There might be another 2019 "miracle" brewing. Watch this space.
There might be another 2019 "miracle" brewing. Watch this space.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
I’m no fan of any party or politicians.
But we’ve had local ACT Labor candidates ‘rightly’ banging on for years about how badly the current Liberal government has pork barrelled their election commitments and not put the funding into where it’s most needed.
Then all the local Labor Candidates have promised millions and millions on a new bike path for the inner north, the Braddon bowls club, the Yarralumla croquet club, the Tennis Club, AIS Arena, playground upgrades for northern suburbs, City Arts precinct, etc , etc.
Surely if they’re focusing on investment where it’s most needed in Canberra, they’d be putting money into areas around Charnwood, Oakes Estate and across Tuggeranong. There’s no way the O’Connor cycle paths and the Croquet club need more support than the run down or non existent facilities outside of the inner north and inner south.
Talk about hollow claims from Katy Gallagher about pre election pork barrelling. She’s just as bad as the Coalition.
But we’ve had local ACT Labor candidates ‘rightly’ banging on for years about how badly the current Liberal government has pork barrelled their election commitments and not put the funding into where it’s most needed.
Then all the local Labor Candidates have promised millions and millions on a new bike path for the inner north, the Braddon bowls club, the Yarralumla croquet club, the Tennis Club, AIS Arena, playground upgrades for northern suburbs, City Arts precinct, etc , etc.
Surely if they’re focusing on investment where it’s most needed in Canberra, they’d be putting money into areas around Charnwood, Oakes Estate and across Tuggeranong. There’s no way the O’Connor cycle paths and the Croquet club need more support than the run down or non existent facilities outside of the inner north and inner south.
Talk about hollow claims from Katy Gallagher about pre election pork barrelling. She’s just as bad as the Coalition.
-
- Mal Meninga
- Posts: 51180
- Joined: June 25, 2012, 9:53 am
- Favourite Player: Hodgo
- Location: Rockhampton, Central Queensland
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
I see the coalition is shortening in odds again, back below $2.90 and appear to be dropping quite rapidly... what the hell is going on now?
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Too little, too late I would guessThe Nickman wrote: ↑May 18, 2022, 9:15 amI see the coalition is shortening in odds again, back below $2.90 and appear to be dropping quite rapidly... what the hell is going on now?
Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
You want moderation because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that forum -- you need me on that forum. We use words like "stay on topic," "use the appropriate forum," "please delete." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very moderation that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you get a green handle and edit a post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think about moderation.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Just voted for a new Canberra Stadium and against the government responsible for some of the worst failures of public policy I’ve ever seen.
-
- Mal Meninga
- Posts: 51180
- Joined: June 25, 2012, 9:53 am
- Favourite Player: Hodgo
- Location: Rockhampton, Central Queensland
- zim
- Laurie Daley
- Posts: 10687
- Joined: July 8, 2015, 3:38 pm
- Favourite Player: NRL: Joseph Tapine
NRLW: Grace Kemp - Location: Sydney
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
I live in Scomo's seat. My vote won't really count.
-
- Mal Meninga
- Posts: 51180
- Joined: June 25, 2012, 9:53 am
- Favourite Player: Hodgo
- Location: Rockhampton, Central Queensland
- zim
- Laurie Daley
- Posts: 10687
- Joined: July 8, 2015, 3:38 pm
- Favourite Player: NRL: Joseph Tapine
NRLW: Grace Kemp - Location: Sydney
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Do you have a better idea?
-
- Mal Meninga
- Posts: 51180
- Joined: June 25, 2012, 9:53 am
- Favourite Player: Hodgo
- Location: Rockhampton, Central Queensland
- Sterlk
- David Furner
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: July 20, 2008, 10:41 am
- Location: Canberra - Raiders season ticket
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Probably this.The Nickman wrote: ↑May 18, 2022, 9:15 amI see the coalition is shortening in odds again, back below $2.90 and appear to be dropping quite rapidly... what the hell is going on now?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/fede ... 5am44.html
however:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... ction#2022
I think everyone's all abuzz about a single poll from Resolve Strategic, which might be much ado about nothing. It would need other polls supporting it before I take it too seriously; I think it might be an outlier.
The dates of the Resolve poll overlap significantly with the most recent ones from Essential and Roy Morgan, and each of those aren't too dissimilar from those companies' previous efforts.
Resolve is representing a big shift that two other companies with notably overlapping dates didn't detect.
- Northern Raider
- Mal Meninga
- Posts: 32572
- Joined: June 19, 2007, 8:17 am
- Favourite Player: Dean Lance
- Location: Greener pastures
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
UAP
* The author assumes no responsibility for the topicality, correctness, completeness or quality of information provided.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
It is not the UAP.
-
- Mal Meninga
- Posts: 51180
- Joined: June 25, 2012, 9:53 am
- Favourite Player: Hodgo
- Location: Rockhampton, Central Queensland
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Polls are always rubbish when it comes to elections, I wouldn’t put any weight in any of themSterlk wrote:Probably this.The Nickman wrote: ↑May 18, 2022, 9:15 amI see the coalition is shortening in odds again, back below $2.90 and appear to be dropping quite rapidly... what the hell is going on now?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/fede ... 5am44.html
however:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... ction#2022
I think everyone's all abuzz about a single poll from Resolve Strategic, which might be much ado about nothing. It would need other polls supporting it before I take it too seriously; I think it might be an outlier.
The dates of the Resolve poll overlap significantly with the most recent ones from Essential and Roy Morgan, and each of those aren't too dissimilar from those companies' previous efforts.
Resolve is representing a big shift that two other companies with notably overlapping dates didn't detect.
- Sterlk
- David Furner
- Posts: 3257
- Joined: July 20, 2008, 10:41 am
- Location: Canberra - Raiders season ticket
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
I'm certainly not writing the government's chances off after last time, as unlikely as their path to victory might still seem, but the polls were reasonably accurate for a good stretch before 2019 and they've made a fair few changes since from the lessons learned.
Imperfect, yes, but probably the best data we have to try make predictions from. The alternative is 'I feels it in mah belly', and I'll be damned if I'm going to instead subscribe to the sage advice of the psychic crocodile choosing between two slabs of meat.
Imperfect, yes, but probably the best data we have to try make predictions from. The alternative is 'I feels it in mah belly', and I'll be damned if I'm going to instead subscribe to the sage advice of the psychic crocodile choosing between two slabs of meat.