The Politics Thread 2022
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
I'm not sure about Palaszczuk beating Newman there Nicko. Newman was very on the nose.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Joel Fitzgibbon wet nursing Repacholi is embarrassing
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Newman was ridiculously short favourite to win that election, it was considered a massive “upset”Dr Zaius wrote:I'm not sure about Palaszczuk beating Newman there Nicko. Newman was very on the nose.
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But you roll in the circles that are the reason he lost, and lost so comfortably, so to you it’s understandable he was “on the nose”
It’s similar to how Shorten lost the election largely on the back of the mining industry. For rusted on labor voters in their Canberra echo chambers it came as a huge shock, but for many of us you could see it coming from a mile away
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
I swear I remember the bookies favouring Biden heavily over Trump...
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
This campaign is awesome.
ALP: "Scomo is real bad so you should vote for us."
LNP: "If you think Scomo is bad, Albo will be worse."
No wonder we have record number of undecided voters only 10 days out.
ALP: "Scomo is real bad so you should vote for us."
LNP: "If you think Scomo is bad, Albo will be worse."
No wonder we have record number of undecided voters only 10 days out.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
That still leaves at least another 86 "gotcha" questions between now and democracy sausage day
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
They did.
I take my hat off to some of Nickman's predictions, but he's overreaching on that one.
Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
You want moderation because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that forum -- you need me on that forum. We use words like "stay on topic," "use the appropriate forum," "please delete." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very moderation that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you get a green handle and edit a post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think about moderation.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Yeah maybe it was the echo chamber I'm in. All I remember is everyone I know wanting him gone, and the satisfaction that I got kicking him to the curb.The Nickman wrote:Newman was ridiculously short favourite to win that election, it was considered a massive “upset”Dr Zaius wrote:I'm not sure about Palaszczuk beating Newman there Nicko. Newman was very on the nose.
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But you roll in the circles that are the reason he lost, and lost so comfortably, so to you it’s understandable he was “on the nose”
It’s similar to how Shorten lost the election largely on the back of the mining industry. For rusted on labor voters in their Canberra echo chambers it came as a huge shock, but for many of us you could see it coming from a mile away
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
No they didn’t, no way. Biden was coming in at about 5sSterlk wrote:I swear I remember the bookies favouring Biden heavily over Trump...
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
No way, absolutely not. You guys are 100% rewriting history here.
In fact, go back to the GH politics thread at the time and you’ll find much the same conversations around me saying Biden would win and you guys saying he’s not going to because of the bookies.
I’m certain it’ll all be there.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Ok, now that I’ve done some research into this it seems Biden WAS favourite heading into the election, but I’m pretty sure those odds flipped sometime leading into it
Also, I reread the Politics 2020 thread and almost nothing is as I remember it, although I was right about everything
Manbush was disturbingly correct about some of his predictions too, so now I have no idea what to believe anymore
Also, I reread the Politics 2020 thread and almost nothing is as I remember it, although I was right about everything
Manbush was disturbingly correct about some of his predictions too, so now I have no idea what to believe anymore
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Na man, he was favourite as soon as he got picked as the democrats candidate. I remember me anxiously watching the betting markets as a sign, and you telling me at TSG not to, cause they don't know what they are doing.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
You've either suffered a serious head injury or this is your quirky sense of humour.The Nickman wrote: ↑May 10, 2022, 8:49 pmNo way, absolutely not. You guys are 100% rewriting history here.
In fact, go back to the GH politics thread at the time and you’ll find much the same conversations around me saying Biden would win and you guys saying he’s not going to because of the bookies.
I’m certain it’ll all be there.
In the lead up to the last election, you insisted that Trump was going to be reelected, despite the polls pointing strongly at Biden. You were so right in 2016 about Trump, I was scared to argue with you.
Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
You want moderation because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that forum -- you need me on that forum. We use words like "stay on topic," "use the appropriate forum," "please delete." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very moderation that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you get a green handle and edit a post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think about moderation.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
I think it’s hard to be confident either way on this one. Good old fence sit.
Libs have upset even more people than before this term, looking shaky with the female vote if you believe the polls. Western Australia and Victoria bound to have some Covid hangover. Labor has upset fewer people this time around by having minimised policy.
But on the flip side there’s the greater concern about Albo having what it takes to run the country. People didn’t like Shorten, but there wasn’t the same question of having what it takes. I think the Liberals have hit well with the general concern over change given the state of the economy and geopolitical landscape. So I guess we see which wins out.
At this stage I think Labor form government. But I’d believe almost anything…
Libs have upset even more people than before this term, looking shaky with the female vote if you believe the polls. Western Australia and Victoria bound to have some Covid hangover. Labor has upset fewer people this time around by having minimised policy.
But on the flip side there’s the greater concern about Albo having what it takes to run the country. People didn’t like Shorten, but there wasn’t the same question of having what it takes. I think the Liberals have hit well with the general concern over change given the state of the economy and geopolitical landscape. So I guess we see which wins out.
At this stage I think Labor form government. But I’d believe almost anything…
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Ok, that’s not correct at all. I was calling a Trump re-election until COVID hit and then when Trump bungled it so badly I said Biden would easily wipe the floor with him. And he did.T_R wrote:You've either suffered a serious head injury or this is your quirky sense of humour.The Nickman wrote: ↑May 10, 2022, 8:49 pmNo way, absolutely not. You guys are 100% rewriting history here.
In fact, go back to the GH politics thread at the time and you’ll find much the same conversations around me saying Biden would win and you guys saying he’s not going to because of the bookies.
I’m certain it’ll all be there.
In the lead up to the last election, you insisted that Trump was going to be reelected, despite the polls pointing strongly at Biden. You were so right in 2016 about Trump, I was scared to argue with you.
And that’s all black and white in the 2020 Politics thread, you can check the tape yourself on that one.
It’s only the odds I’m misremembering, not my prediction. Seems you might be the one suffering the head knock here.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Clearly my bad. I always thought of you as a man of his convictions, so have probably just blanked out the ugly backflip.The Nickman wrote: ↑May 12, 2022, 5:45 amOk, that’s not correct at all. I was calling a Trump re-election until COVID hit and then when Trump bungled it so badly I said Biden would easily wipe the floor with him. And he did.T_R wrote:You've either suffered a serious head injury or this is your quirky sense of humour.The Nickman wrote: ↑May 10, 2022, 8:49 pmNo way, absolutely not. You guys are 100% rewriting history here.
In fact, go back to the GH politics thread at the time and you’ll find much the same conversations around me saying Biden would win and you guys saying he’s not going to because of the bookies.
I’m certain it’ll all be there.
In the lead up to the last election, you insisted that Trump was going to be reelected, despite the polls pointing strongly at Biden. You were so right in 2016 about Trump, I was scared to argue with you.
And that’s all black and white in the 2020 Politics thread, you can check the tape yourself on that one.
It’s only the odds I’m misremembering, not my prediction. Seems you might be the one suffering the head knock here.
Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
You want moderation because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that forum -- you need me on that forum. We use words like "stay on topic," "use the appropriate forum," "please delete." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very moderation that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you get a green handle and edit a post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think about moderation.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
You need to change your views based on the evidence presented, old friend. Trump was pretty clearly going to win that election until he bungled COVID so bad that so many died.
I've also always been rather convinced he'd get back in in 2024, but I'm starting to change my mind on that too. The way Biden has handled Ukraine really has been quite strong and I think it will do him well come next polls.
I've also always been rather convinced he'd get back in in 2024, but I'm starting to change my mind on that too. The way Biden has handled Ukraine really has been quite strong and I think it will do him well come next polls.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
So you're saying ScoMo wins next week, unless stuff happens in which case it will be Albo?The Nickman wrote: ↑May 12, 2022, 8:58 am You need to change your views based on the evidence presented, old friend. Trump was pretty clearly going to win that election until he bungled COVID so bad that so many died.
I've also always been rather convinced he'd get back in in 2024, but I'm starting to change my mind on that too. The way Biden has handled Ukraine really has been quite strong and I think it will do him well come next polls.
Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
You want moderation because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that forum -- you need me on that forum. We use words like "stay on topic," "use the appropriate forum," "please delete." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very moderation that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you get a green handle and edit a post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think about moderation.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Still calling an LNP win Nickman?
Based on ScoMo today you’re more confident than he is.
Based on ScoMo today you’re more confident than he is.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
I'm thinking Labor to form a minority government
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Labor 1-12 FTS Chalmers
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Be prepared for QLD to be an incredible outlier on election night.
It is perfectly foreseeable that there will be a decent repudiation right across the country of the LNP - but for Labor to fail to gain even one extra seat up there.
That for me is what puts a Labor majority in doubt.
It is perfectly foreseeable that there will be a decent repudiation right across the country of the LNP - but for Labor to fail to gain even one extra seat up there.
That for me is what puts a Labor majority in doubt.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Bring on Quexit.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Unless Albo is found in a compromising situation with an underage barnyard animal in the next week, I think Labor by a reasonably healthy margin ... perhaps with a couple of Greens and teals tacked on.
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Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
You want moderation because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that forum -- you need me on that forum. We use words like "stay on topic," "use the appropriate forum," "please delete." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very moderation that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you get a green handle and edit a post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think about moderation.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
I haven't been this resolute about my vote since we fired Newman into the sun. My mind was firmly made up on this 9 months ago, and I'm teeming with anticipation about kicking these **** to the curb.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Curious on what outcome you see if it happens to be a mature barnyard animal?T_R wrote:Unless Albo is found in a compromising situation with an underage barnyard animal in the next week, I think Labor by a reasonably healthy margin ... perhaps with a couple of Greens and teals tacked on.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
It's the old thing, isn't it - Australians vote governments out, not oppositions in. The fact that Labor is an uninspiring swill of union hacks and time serving political staffers promoted above their station detracts not in the slightest from the fact that we are so bloody sick of the smug incompetence of the Libs that we'd take just about any gang of ne'er do wells over them.
How about my electorate. I have the choice of Labor, the Green, the LNP or 6 anti-vax supporting ferals with just sufficient wherewithal to stumble down from the hills to put up unapproved corflutes along the side of the road. Not much room there for a protest vote.
Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
You want moderation because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that forum -- you need me on that forum. We use words like "stay on topic," "use the appropriate forum," "please delete." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very moderation that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you get a green handle and edit a post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think about moderation.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Well, that would just be lovable hijinks, so hung parliament at worst.gangrenous wrote: ↑May 14, 2022, 8:49 amCurious on what outcome you see if it happens to be a mature barnyard animal?T_R wrote:Unless Albo is found in a compromising situation with an underage barnyard animal in the next week, I think Labor by a reasonably healthy margin ... perhaps with a couple of Greens and teals tacked on.
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Son, we live in a world that has forums, and those forums have to be guarded by Mods. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Nickman? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for Lucy, and you curse GE. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that GE’s moderation, while tragic, probably saved lives; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, keeps threads on track and under the appropriately sized, highlighted green headings.
You want moderation because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that forum -- you need me on that forum. We use words like "stay on topic," "use the appropriate forum," "please delete." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very moderation that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you get a green handle and edit a post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think about moderation.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Looking at this further, according to Sportsbet's markets on the key QLD seats, Labor is favoured to pick up Longman, with the rest sticking to the LNP.Mickey_Raider wrote: ↑May 13, 2022, 9:13 pm Be prepared for QLD to be an incredible outlier on election night.
It is perfectly foreseeable that there will be a decent repudiation right across the country of the LNP - but for Labor to fail to gain even one extra seat up there.
That for me is what puts a Labor majority in doubt.
You're probably right that QLD isn't going to budge - give or take Longman - but even so the shortest odds are on Labor to win 76-80 seats, followed closely by 81-85.
QLD is the most conservative state in the country. If there weren't probable paths to a majority Labor government elsewhere, a majority Labor government wouldn't be a $1.55 favourite, with the odds of a minority at $3.80.
The bookies can and do get it wrong, of course - I vividly remember one of the big ones paying out Labor early in 2019 - but in this respect I gage they know their stuff far better than the average punter on a footy forum. If QLD were mathematically pivotal to a majority Labor government, they wouldn't simultaneously be predicting gains of only a single seat AND short odds for a majority.
Minority government is still on the cards, of course; I'm just saying it's unlikely to be a result of a failure to launch in QLD, since nobody's expecting much there anyway. As an equivalence, Trump didn't lose 2020 because of New York and California; he was never going to win those, it was the swinging seats that cost him. Victoria may have been dubbed the 'Massachusetts of Australia', but Queensland is our Texas.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
The winds of change seem to be blowing through the media and the Liberals in the last couple of days. Sentiment seems to be swinging heavily behind the expectation of a Labor win.
Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Absolutely. The times when I have been very motivated to vote, the motivation has risen from a burning desire to vote someone out, not vote someone in.T_R wrote:It's the old thing, isn't it - Australians vote governments out, not oppositions in. The fact that Labor is an uninspiring swill of union hacks and time serving political staffers promoted above their station detracts not in the slightest from the fact that we are so bloody sick of the smug incompetence of the Libs that we'd take just about any gang of ne'er do wells over them.
How about my electorate. I have the choice of Labor, the Green, the LNP or 6 anti-vax supporting ferals with just sufficient wherewithal to stumble down from the hills to put up unapproved corflutes along the side of the road. Not much room there for a protest vote.
I'm not under any illusion that my vote counts for anything though. The LNP haven't lost my seat since it's inception. I miss voting in Eden Monaro where my vote actually meant something.
I prepoll voted today. Like your electorate, it's a desperate looking lot. Going off the placard photos, the LNP candidate looks the most electable. The Labor candidate looked like he'd stuck his head in a few too many scrums. The UAP candidate looked like she was the favourite wife of a Christian cult leader. She replaced the Elvis impersonator who pulled out a month ago. There's a good chance that she snuffed him out. The One Nation candidate looks like the pinnacle of her life was as a nun in the 1950s inflicting corporal punishment on naughty schoolboys. Her name is Leeanne but she also answers to Karen. The Liberal Deomcrats candidate looks like Pauline Hanson after a cosmetic holiday in Thailand.
It saddens me that I had to put One Nation third last in the house, and UAP second last. They both deserve to be down the bottom. Alas it was the antivax party who earned my wrath this time around and took out the antipole position.
The senate was the worst though. It was slim pickings to find 6 parties to put a number against.
Still, I'm grateful to live in a country where all of these people get their chance to run for office. Even if they are complete lunatics.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Dr Zaius wrote: ↑May 14, 2022, 11:34 amT_R wrote:This paragraph is gold. Funniest thing I’ve read for a looooong time. But also sad.Dr Zaius wrote: ↑May 14, 2022, 7:27 am
I prepoll voted today. Like your electorate, it's a desperate looking lot. Going off the placard photos, the LNP candidate looks the most electable. The Labor candidate looked like he'd stuck his head in a few too many scrums. The UAP candidate looked like she was the favourite wife of a Christian cult leader. She replaced the Elvis impersonator who pulled out a month ago. There's a good chance that she snuffed him out. The One Nation candidate looks like the pinnacle of her life was as a nun in the 1950s inflicting corporal punishment on naughty schoolboys. Her name is Leeanne but she also answers to Karen. The Liberal Deomcrats candidate looks like Pauline Hanson after a cosmetic holiday in Thailand.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
Begbie wrote: ↑May 14, 2022, 1:20 pmDr Zaius wrote: ↑May 14, 2022, 11:34 amT_R wrote:This paragraph is gold. Funniest thing I’ve read for a looooong time. But also sad.Dr Zaius wrote: ↑May 14, 2022, 7:27 am
I prepoll voted today. Like your electorate, it's a desperate looking lot. Going off the placard photos, the LNP candidate looks the most electable. The Labor candidate looked like he'd stuck his head in a few too many scrums. The UAP candidate looked like she was the favourite wife of a Christian cult leader. She replaced the Elvis impersonator who pulled out a month ago. There's a good chance that she snuffed him out. The One Nation candidate looks like the pinnacle of her life was as a nun in the 1950s inflicting corporal punishment on naughty schoolboys. Her name is Leeanne but she also answers to Karen. The Liberal Deomcrats candidate looks like Pauline Hanson after a cosmetic holiday in Thailand.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2022
All right Begbie my old friend. Let's see if you have been paying attention. Which political party does this candidate belong to?
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