Canberra Raiders V Gold Coast Titans
Saturday August 22 3:00pm
Robina Stadium
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Windy. Sunny. 🌬
Sunny. Winds westerly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light early in the morning then becoming westerly 30 to 45 km/h in the morning. Chance of any rain: 0 per cent. Min 9 Max 22In Round 15, the Canberra Raiders head to the Gold Coast for a clash with the Titans - the teams' second encounter for this season.
Last round: 2020 Round 14. Canberra Raiders 36 - Brisbane Broncos 8. The old adage was never more true. It was a game of two halves. The Broncos came out of the blocks hard and fast, dominating possession and territory. The Broncos didn't let the Raiders touch the ball for the final 10 minutes of the first half and the visitors took a two point lead to the break. But the game quickly changed complexion in the second half. Through pure determination, John Bateman decided to change it. Six minutes into the second 40, he made a break setting up George Williams for a try. It was the start of an avalanche of tries.
More on Round 14: As I saw it
Team news: The Canberra Raiders have named the same team they announced last week to face the Broncos. The Titans named Kevin Proctor in the second row, but he’s been suspended for four weeks, after a biting incident involving Shaun Johnson in last weekend's clash with the Sharks. The Gold Coast have lost Dale Copley (pec) and Jai Arrow (shoulder) to injury. Young Tonumaipea replaces Copley at centre, with Anthony Don and Phillip Sami named on the wings. Jarrod Wallace will start at prop, with Moeaki Fotuaika shifting to lock. Sam Stone has been included on the bench.
Late changes: The Raiders reduced their squad to 19 players on Friday afternoon, omitting Sam Williams and Kai O'Donnell. The Titans have promoted Sam Stone to the starting team, to replace the suspended Kevin Proctor - with Jai Whitbread moving into the 17 on the bench. Anthony Don has failed to recover from a rib injury and has been ruled out, with Phillip Sami switching into his position and Corey Thompson to also start on the wing.
Milestone: Raiders forward Dunamis Lui plays his 150th NRL game in this match, 70 of them with the Green Machine.
History: Canberra has won 12 of 24 games against the Gold Coast Titans - and 27 of 41 games played against all incarnations of the Gold Coast. The Raiders have won seven of the past 10 matches against the Titans - and are now on a three game winning streak against the Queensland outfit. Canberra lost in the Round 1 clash of 2018 in the final two minutes, 30-28... after leading 24-6 at one stage. The Raiders got some revenge at Canberra Stadium in Round 9, winning the re-match 32-18. Canberra held the Gold Coast scoreless in Round 1 2019, posting a 21-0 victory at Robina - and followed that up with 24-6 win over the Titans in Round 1 2020 at Canberra Stadium. The Raiders have won five of the 12 games played against the Titans at Robina.
2020 Round 1 Canberra Raiders V Gold Coast Titans
2019 Round 1 Canberra Raiders V Gold Coast Titans
2018 Round 9 Canberra Raiders V Gold Coast Titans
2018 Round 1 Canberra Raiders V Gold Coast Titans
Form: Raiders: WWWLW
Titans: LLLWL
The Titans have been improving, but they still only have one recent win - over the Cowboys (30-10). They have posted recent losses to the Storm (42-6), Panthers (22-14) and Roosters (18-12). They also lost to the Sharks (30-18) in their last outing. But there have been some close contests in there against top four teams. The Raiders have suffered one loss in their past five games - to the Panthers (28-12). Apart from last week's win over the Broncos, the Raiders have had recent wins over the Roosters (24-20), Rabbitohs (18-12) and Cowboys (14-12).
Betting: The Raiders are $1.28 favourites, while the Titans are paying $3.75. The Titans have 10.5 points start in the line betting. There has been some late money coming in on the Titans.
Stat attack: This is a battle between fifth (Raiders) and 13th (Titans) on the ladder. The Raiders' attacking record in 2020 has been poor - but with six tries posted against the Broncos, they've climbed one spot in the try scoring rankings this week. The Green Machine still ranks fifth in the NRL for the fewest points (15 per game) and tries conceded (35 in total) - but they're not far off the Roosters (33 tries conceded) and Panthers (34 conceded). The Titans are in the bottom four teams in attack, and bottom five in defence.
Only the Broncos have fewer running metres than the Titans in 2020 (Raiders rank 12th). The Titans also rank last for kick return metres (Raiders 14th) and second last for post contact metres (Raiders 12th). The Gold Coast is bottom four for line breaks (Raiders 10th) and tackle breaks (Raiders 11th).
The Raiders are sometimes forced into long kicks, due to their inability to make metres with the ball in hand - but it is also a deliberate strategy to kick long and to the corners. The Raiders now rank third in the NRL for long kicks and total kicking metres. The Titans don't compensate for their low running metres with their kicking - they rank second to the Broncos for fewest kicks and have the fewest kicking metres in the league.
The Titans do throw the ball around, however. They rank second, behind the Panthers, in general play passes (Raiders 15th) and last for one pass hit ups (Raiders third). They are middle of the pack for dummy half runs, while the Raiders rank third (behind the Storm and the Tigers). Only the Rabbitohs have fewer offloads than the Raiders (Titans rank 11th). That tells you something about the style of attack of both teams - but the more adventurous style of the Titans isn't producing points.
No team has made more ineffective tackles than the Titans (Raiders 11th) - and only the Sharks have missed more tackles (Raiders rank eighth) and have a lower effective tackle rate (Raiders rank seventh). Both teams are middle of the pack for running metres conceded. The Raiders rank fourth for line breaks conceded (Raiders 10th).
The Titans have made more errors than any team in the competition (13 per game, Raiders rank fourth with 11) - and they have the worst completion rate (Raiders rank eighth). They also rank second in the NRL for penalties conceded (86, Raiders seventh with 77) and fifth for restarts conceded (54, Raiders third with 56). That explains why the Titans aren't producing points - and concede too many. They're simply not executing in attack, and they've been unable to defend their errors.
2020 Season record: Raiders 9 and 5 (5th, +55)
Titans 4 and 10 (13th, -165)
Attack: Raiders 19 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 10th on tries scored
Titans 26 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 13th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 15 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 5th on tries conceded
Titans 31 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 12th on tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 50 per cent, Titans 47 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 78 per cent, Titans 74 per cent
Running: Raiders 1649 running metres from 186 runs (14 dummy half runs), 150 kick return metres, 544 post contact metres per match
Titans 1490 running metres from 172 runs (10 dummy half runs), 132 kick return metres, 480 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 29, Titans 28 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 3, Titans 3 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Titans 2 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 2, Titans 2 per match
Offloads: Raiders 8, Titans 9 per match
Kicking: Raiders 644 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match
Titans 483 kicking metres from 19 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 364 made, 29 missed, 14 ineffective per match, 90 per cent tackle efficiency
Titans 362 made, 34 missed, 18 ineffective per match, 87 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1473, Titans 1482 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Titans 13 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 6, Titans 6 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Titans 5 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 5, Titans 5 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Titans 4 per match
Key match-ups:
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Alexander Brimson AJ Brimson suffered a fractured back at the NRL Nines in Perth at the start of the year - and he feared at one stage that it might be a season ending injury. But he returned in the Round 12 clash with the Roosters - and he's one reason for the Titans' improved recent performances. In his three appearances this year, he's scored two tries, averaged 151 running metres, and produced three line breaks, eight tackle breaks and one try assist. He topped 200 metres in the win over the Cowboys. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has returned from a compound dislocation of his little finger in style. He was the Raiders' man of the match in the loss to the Panthers, scoring two tries. He scored another in the win over the Broncos, with no signs of hesitation under the high ball. He's got seven four pointers in 2020, averaged 182 running metres and has posted two try assists and three line breaks. Again, it should be a great clash of the fullbacks.
Jack Wighton and Ash Taylor Ash Taylor is reportedly on $1 million a season, and he's struggled to live up to the expectations that come with that. He took a lengthy break last season, having found the pressure too much. But this year, he's justified the faith that new Titans coach, Justin Holbrook, has put in him. He's played every game and settled at five eighth. He's scored one try and delivered 10 try assists, eight line break assists and eight forced line drop outs. His defence is not his relative strength, however - so the Raiders will no doubt look to exploit that. He ranks second in the league, behind Mitch Pearce, for missed tackles (55) and third for ineffective tackles (26). By his high standards, Jack Wighton's form was probably a little down in last week's clash with the Broncos. But there's no doubt that he's now among the elite players in the game. In 2020 he's scored four tries and averaged 102 running metres and 289 kicking metres. He's also produced six try assists and five line break assists. He is very solid in defence - with an 88 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Ash Taylor's tackle efficiency sits at 73 per cent. Wighton does have an error in his game, mostly a kick error. He ranks third in the NRL for errors (21), behind Zac Lomax and Anthony Don. But that happens when you're trying things and touching the ball as often as he does.
Tom Starling and Nathan Peats Veteran hooker Nathan Peats was dumped from the Titans team after the Round 3 loss to the Cowboys, their third in a row. But he was a late inclusion in the starting team for the Round 11 clash with the Panthers, displacing former Raider Erin Clark. And he's maintained his hold on the No. 9 jersey since then. He's lifted on his performances in the early part of the season - with his defence the main plus to his game. He's averaged 51 tackles per game since his return, and has a 92 per cent tackle efficiency rate for the 2020 season. But he's yet to post a try, a try assist, a line break assist or an offload - and has averaged just 19 running metres. Tom Starling and Siliva Havili, are substituting for injured co-captain Josh Hodgson - and doing a good job. Havili absorbs the big hits in the early part of games, with the smaller Starling injected later. He is a ball of energy, and the Raiders' attack looks better when he's at dummy half. In five games, he's posted one try assist, one line break assist, and averaged 48 running metres. For a small player, he has a remarkable 97 per cent tackle efficiency rate. I'm tipping Starling will finish on top in this match-up.
Our tip: The Raiders are deserved favourites, but like last week, it is a danger game. The Titans are developing under new coach Justin Holbrook - and have played some pretty good footy in recent weeks. The Raiders have another full day of travel and will be playing in relatively warm conditions. Canberra will want to lift on its first half performance against the Broncos - and produce a better start. The Raiders should have more confidence in attack, having just topped 30 points for the first time this year. But the Titans will be a much tougher outfit than the Broncos. The Raiders will need to lay the platform first, and stick to the structures. If they can do that, the Green Machine should be too good. Raiders by 6-12.
What they're saying:
Assistant coach Andrew McFadden on John Bateman: "John's a very unique player. He doesn't play like most other players in the NRL. He's awkward, he's unorthodox, but he's very effective. He creates stuff and he certainly makes people around him a lot better. It's great to have him back, and I'm sure that as he gets more games under his belt, he'll get better and better for us. That's probably where we are as a team. We've got to build over the next couple of months."
Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Jordan Rapana
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Curtis Scott
5. Nick Cotric
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Siliva Havili
10. Dunamis Lui
11. John Bateman
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Hudson Young
14. Tom Starling
15. Joe Tapine
16. Ryan Sutton
17. Corey Harawira-Naera
19. Harley Smith-Shields
21. Matt Frawley
Injury/Suspension
Semi Valemei, Knee (Rd 16-17)
Emre Guler, Ankle (Rd 17-19)
Corey Horsburgh, Foot (Indefinite, until at least Rd 19, possibly season)
Michael Oldfield, Thumb (Rd 20)
Sia Soliola, Palate (Indefinite, until at least Rd 20, possibly season)
Bailey Simonsson, Shoulder (Season)
Josh Hodgson, Knee (Season)
Andre Niko, Knee (Season)
Sebastian Kris, Extended sick leave
Gold Coast Titans
1. Alexander Brimson
5. Phillip Sami
3. Brian Kelly
4. Young Tonumaipea
18. Corey Thompson
6. Ashley Taylor
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Jarrod Wallace
9. Nathan Peats
10. Jaiman Jolliffe
12. Keegan Hipgrave
17. Sam Stone
13. Moeaki Fotuaika
14. Tyrone Peachey
15. Sam Lisone
16. Beau Fermor
20. Jai Whitbread
19. Tanah Boyd
21. Erin Clark
Officials
Referee: Chris Butler
Touch judges: Liam Kennedy, Drew Oultram
Video referees: Steve Chiddy, Ben Galea
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLTitansRaiders
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2020 #FromAllAngles
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