Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

Post by ChampionBets »

Thanks to the guys at thegh.com.au for allowing us to post Steve Green's Raiders thoughts this season. Here's a small preview of the season and we'll be following this up with his game previews each week of the season. Thanks in advance for reading, look forward to the comments!

Heavyweights preview

Coach Stuart has copped a bit of flack for his team changes since going down in the Grand Final. Aidan Sezer getting moved on was criticised due to the form the plucky halfback showed at the end of 2019. He’s already dominating the Super League in 2020. This was made worse by the fact that his UK replacement, George Williams, was given barely any game time by Coach Bennett on the Lions tour of Australia at the end of 2019.

Then following Joey Leilua’s departure, we saw Curtis Scott get arrested and his immediate future is now under a cloud. A lot of people questioned why Stuart had decided to let go of the rampaging Leilua after such a strong season (a season where he finally managed to cut down his errors and penalties).

Finally, crowd favourtie Rapana was lost to Japanese Rugby, without any replacement being signed. Simmonson is ready to start on the wing and has looked good every time he’s pulled on a green jersey, but it does take away some depth out wide.

From what I’ve seen of George Williams, he’s the real deal and capable of making an impact the way Hodgson did at the 9 position. I’m also a big fan of Curtis Scott’s potential… pending his police charges being resolved, he’ll be a great replacement for Leilua.

Besides that, the Raiders should generally improve across the board. Wighton, Tapine, Papalli, Hodgson, Bateman and CNK are at the top of their game with age on their side.

Their easy start to the season makes it tempting to back them but again, the $7.00 is just not long enough for me in such an even competition.

It might take a while for their new combinations to gel so I think their price could drift if they drop a few games early. There then might be a good opportunity to take the Raiders at $10 or better to win the competition.

Read more: https://www.championbets.com.au/sports- ... vyweights/
4 great seasons of profitable NRL Tips and Previews by big Raiders fan Steve Green.
https://www.championbets.com.au/product/nrl-tips/

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

Post by -PJ- »

This Steve Green fella comes across as a good bloke...
3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment..Old Faithful
#emptythetank :shock:

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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-PJ- wrote:
March 6, 2020, 3:53 pm
This Steve Green fella comes across as a good bloke...
He is... he's been a member of the site at one stage at least.
Image

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Raiders 1.3
Titans 3.65
Prices steady for now
4 great seasons of profitable NRL Tips and Previews by big Raiders fan Steve Green.
https://www.championbets.com.au/product/nrl-tips/

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

Post by Northern Raider »

Might have an each way bet on the Raiders.
* The author assumes no responsibility for the topicality, correctness, completeness or quality of information provided.

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Northern Raider wrote:
March 11, 2020, 3:29 pm
Might have an each way bet on the Raiders.
They sure are short.....
4 great seasons of profitable NRL Tips and Previews by big Raiders fan Steve Green.
https://www.championbets.com.au/product/nrl-tips/

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Is this the new betting thread?

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

Post by manbearpig »

$647 p.a?
Jesus thats steep
Im just, bicking back being bool

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Steve's predicted ladder

One of the most difficult things in the NRL is predicting the ladder at the beginning of the season. You will always be embarrassed as to how things turn out, but the key to making sure you are a winning punter is by ensuring your bets have a positive Expected Value. If I pick a team to come 3rd who then come 9th I don’t mind, provided I didn’t bet on them to make the Top 4 etc.

But anyway… here is where I think the teams will end up on the regular season ladder:


16. Warriors
I don’t think the Warriors have done enough with their roster in the off-season. Letting Lisone go, right as they encountered a shortage of front rowers due to the injury to Afoa, was silly. I’m not sure what Kearney’s plan is for 2020. He’s made some strange decisions at the helm and while it looked like there was a method to his madness in 2018, he seems to be too willing to let players leave rather than work with them and improve them.

15. Bulldogs
The Doggies are the other cellar dweller that I think will be part of an evening in the competition. While their roster is nothing to write home about, it has improved under Pay. DWZ and Hopoate are pure class while Meaney, Okunbor, R Smith and Lewis are all underrated contributors. And despite having a pretty boring attacking style, their defensive desperation was second to none and they really give 100% every game.

Despite conceding more metres than any other team in 2019, they were ranked equal fifth in line breaks conceded. That indicates a team that does anything to stop their opponents breaking their line. If they can improve their attack off the back of new signings like Stimson and Britt, they’ll be a hard team to beat.

14. Titans
I don’t expect the Titans to come last in 2020, which is a controversial opinion due to how poor they were last year. I think a lot of what went wrong with the Titans last year came down to their coach, the issues around Ash Taylor and a lack of defensive grit. They topped the league in missed tackles and line breaks conceded.

But it was a totally different team in their trial against the Broncos. While I don’t read too much into trial matches, the Broncos named a strong team and despite a good start couldn’t deal with the physicality of the Titans. Arrow, Wallace and Fotuaika will form the bedrock of the Titans forward pack. Despite being poor in recent years, I’m expecting Proctor to have a solid year now that he’s been handed the captaincy and is playing for a new contract. Lisone is a good pick up from the Warriors and Shannon Boyd is the forgotten man of the NRL after having an injury plagued year in 2019. In shape, the big man was playing for Australia not that long ago, so this Titans pack has a ton of potential.

13. Panthers
While I think Cleary will improve without Maloney in 2020, I worry about the patchy form of guys like Mansour, Edwards and Luai. Despite having so much young talent at their disposal, Cleary has made some strange team selections. Guys like Burton and Aekins should be picked in my view, but they seemed to have gotten passed over in 2020 despite their form warranting selection. Tyrone May could be the surprise pack they need, he looked tremendous before being embroiled in the sex tape controversy that derailed their 2019 season. Plenty of upside if they get things right.

12. Knights
With Ponga and Pearce in great form, the Knights will always be hard to beat on their day – especially at home in front of their passionate and loyal fans. Brailey will help fill the void at 9 and they have plenty of competition for spots out wide. If Lino can make the 6 jersey his own and the Knight forwards stay fit, then they could surprise to the upside… but they fizzled out last year and I have some doubts about their solidarity as a club in the wake of Brown’s departure in 2019.

11. Sharks
My main concern for the Sharks is the lack of professionalism in the front office and the lack of experience in their coaching ranks. Sometimes it looks like their senior players are running the show and although their roster is strong, guys like Fifita, Dugan and Josh Morris have all shown glimpses of not wanting to be there in recent years. Townsend is a bit hit-and-miss, as is Johnson and Moylan. On their day, they can beat anyone… but I can also see them capitulating often in 2020. With Shark Park out of action in 2020, I think their temporary home in Kogarah will also diminish their home ground advantage.

10. Dragons
I think the Dragons will really improve this year. Despite their second-half capitulation against Souths in the Charity Shield, their pre-season form has been solid. I put this down to coaching changes over the off-season. Shane Flanagan appears to have added some grit to the Dragons and with the likes of young Jason Saab, Mikaele Ravalawa, Adam Clune, Ben Hunt, Josh Kerr, Jackson Ford, Tyrell Fuimaono,Tristan Sailor, Brayden Wiliame and Cody Ramsey, the Dragons have a much deeper squad in 202. If the likes of Aitken and Lafai don’t lift their game, then they have plenty of talent ready to step up.

9. Cowboys
The Cowboys have recruited some gun outside backs, and with McLean, McGuire and Taumalolo in the forwards I think they will be very hard to beat up north. I am a little concerned by their forward depth and also what they’ll do at 9.. Robson is promising but hasn’t shown he can handle the rigours of the NRL at the Dragons, while Granville has been poor in recent years.

8. Manly
I have Manly rounding out the final eight. This is a big call and I might be embarrassed by the Sea Eagles, but I worry about a lack of depth and the risk of injury to their stars. Tom T has already shown he’s prone and now Jake T is going to be out for the first few matches alongside Fonua-Blake. That could mean they start slow and when Origin hits, they will be without their three big guns in DCE and the Trbojevic brothers.

7. Wests
While all the focus has been on the recruitment of the Leilua brothers and Doueihi, I think the likes of Garner, Chee Kam, Twal, Nofoaluma and Reynolds are the key to Wests surprising this year. Brooks was sensational last year and Benji keeps delivering. I rate Coach McGuire highly, so I expect a fit and well drilled Wests outfit to finally play finals in 2020.

6. Broncos
A lot will come down to how Coach Siebold manages this team. With Arhtus and Boyd likely to start out wide in Round 1, I have my concerns over his team selection already. Farmworth and Coates is the combo I would go with and I expect them to be given a shot very soon. Lodge’s injury is also a big setback, but Fifita and Haas along with the highly underrated Carrigan and Flegler will be hard to contain all year long. Expecting a big season from Bird at the back and Milford at 6.

5. Raiders
While I have the Raiders falling back a little, I do think they will be genuine contenders in 2020. G Williams looks great and he will prove the doubters wrong, while Scott is not the awful replacement that the media is making out for Joey. Despite being destructive on his day, Leilua’s failure to pass to Rapana in the Grand Final cost the Raiders the premiership and Ricky Stuart does not tolerate selfishness.

4. Souths
An all-star back line and Damien Cook will see the Souths attack go to the next level. Coach Bennett always has great defence but has struggled to find points in recent years. That should change in 2020. Although the forward pack is not full of superstars, they have some underrated guys (Knight, Tatola, Sironen) that will surprise a lot of people.

3. Storm
Bellamy has been very clever with his recruitment policy. Brenko Lee is a first-grade quality player that will put pressure on the halves, while Hynes looked a star in Queensland Cup and will also provide options out wide. The Storm will look to Tino Fa’asuamaleaui to bolster their forward stocks, and with Big Nelson, Welch and J Bromwich to learn from, he’ll have a break-out season. Harry Grant, if he stays, will play a role off the bench and Jacks returning to Melbourne provides depth around Origin time.

2. Eels
With guys like Mahoney and D Brown a year older and wiser, I think the Eels will be even better in 2019. Their forwards have been strengthened with the recruitment of Matterson and RCG, plus they have a few young guys that provide plenty of depth. Moses has turned into one of the competition’s true superstars, while guys like Nathan Brown are massively underrated. Sivo, Ferguson and Gutherson and one of the best back 3 combos in the game.

1. Roosters
Still the benchmark in defence and although they’ll miss Cronk, Flanagan is the perfect replacement. His goal kicking will cover the loss of Latrell and based on the last few seasons’ form, the Roosters deserve to be favourites in 2020

Despite these predicted rankings not being too far off the markets, I don’t think there will be too many easy beats in 2020. When a top-rated team has an off day I think we’ll see an upset. I”m keen to capitalise both at the head-to-head and the line.

Read more: https://www.championbets.com.au/sports- ... n-preview/
4 great seasons of profitable NRL Tips and Previews by big Raiders fan Steve Green.
https://www.championbets.com.au/product/nrl-tips/

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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gergreg wrote:
March 11, 2020, 3:41 pm
Is this the new betting thread?

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It's more the "Steve Green" thread, plenty of betting stuff
4 great seasons of profitable NRL Tips and Previews by big Raiders fan Steve Green.
https://www.championbets.com.au/product/nrl-tips/

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

Post by ChampionBets »

manbearpig wrote:
March 11, 2020, 3:49 pm
$647 p.a?
Jesus thats steep
:hmmm ....Steve has a super record.
Regardless, we'll post his Raiders previews all season, hopefully you get something out of them.
4 great seasons of profitable NRL Tips and Previews by big Raiders fan Steve Green.
https://www.championbets.com.au/product/nrl-tips/

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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2020 Round 1: Raiders v Titans

The Raiders head into this one without John Bateman, and considering they have also lost Sezer, Leilua and Rapana from last year’s grand final side, it will feel like a different team on Friday night.

While I think the Raiders still have a very strong team and will be hard to beat at home, there are three things that worry me:

1. Bateman is very important to this Raiders team and they clearly missed him when he was injured last year. His aggression and enthusiasm is infectious, and I think this could be an underrated absence in coming weeks for the Raiders.

2. The Raiders didn’t have the best record at home and against poor teams last year. They seemed to lift for the big games, but have been caught napping against the weaker teams. The Titans looked like a different team last week. If Brimson and Fotuaika do play, then they have the team to ambush the Raiders here.

3. There could be a bit of a come down from last season’s heartbreaking Grand Final loss. The Raiders looked very flat in their only one trial match this year, so I am not sure they will start this season full of beans and they could be a work in progress.

If the Titans are without Brimson, then I am interested to see what Sami can do at 1. He has always been a player with enormous potential, but seemed to come in and out of games. At full back against the Broncos, he looked great and I think that is his long term position. This would mean that Brimson can move into the halves or play from 14 – and I am a big fan of having a gun player as a super-sub that can come on when the defence is tiring, it is an underrated strategy.

New coach Holbrook has given the Titans a licence to thrill and with guys like Peachey and Cartwright, I think this could be the secret to breaking the Raiders rock solid defence.

The Wooden Spooner to cover against the Grand Finalist is a bold move, but I think the Titans will offer some value at the line in these early rounds.

Predicted Score
Raiders 18
Titans 14
4 great seasons of profitable NRL Tips and Previews by big Raiders fan Steve Green.
https://www.championbets.com.au/product/nrl-tips/

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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2020 Round 2: Warriors v Raiders

Despite this game being listed as a home game for the Warriors, it has been moved to the Gold Coast. Considering the lack of any crowd, it is effectively a neutral venue and as we saw last night, I don’t think the Bulldogs enjoyed any home ground advantage without the fans there.

Considering they have effectively been prevented from returning home to NZ (if they did, they would have to self-isolate and therefore forfeit their next two games at least), this is not a bad looking team.

Hiku, who has returned to NZ to be there for birth of his child, has been replaced by Keighran. Although the young playmaker is a half, he played a lot of lower grade footy in the centres and has the speed to cover this role. I rate him as a smart footballer and this is something the Warriors need plenty more of.

Egan gets another start at 9, which is the right move – as they need to give the kid a chance to prove his worth. But I am concerned about the the Warriors forward pack in the middle of the field. They continue to field some players that are lacking NRL experience (such as Eliesa Katoa, Jamayne Taunoa-Brown and King Vuniyayawa).

While the Raiders had a few of these guys last year (Horsburgh and Guler for example), these guys have a whole NRL season and a grand final under their belt! Both these guys were massive against the Titans in Round 1 and they will again provide support to he big guns like Whitehead, Papalli and Tapine.

Hodgson, Williams and Wighton all clicked in Round 1, with the new English halfback showing why Coach Stuart went so hard to get his signature.

The bookies have shown a lot of respect to the Raiders and put up a line of -12.5 for the Green Machine

I thought the Raiders win last week was probably the best performance of Round 1. They dominated from start to finish, overcame an injury to their fullback and looked strong across the field.

I am going to back the Raiders at -12.5. The Raiders scrambling defence looked good again last weekend, while the Warriors attack was woeful – with them failing to score a single point.

Without crowds, defensive intensity has been an issue in Round 2 so far, with 50 points scored on average last night and 40 points being scored in the Bulldogs v Cowboys game, which was set to be heavily dominated by defence.

If this game opens up, then I think the Raiders are more likely to blow it open off the back of Wighton, Williams and Klokstad find plenty of opportunities out wide.

Predicted Score
Raiders 30
Warriors 12
4 great seasons of profitable NRL Tips and Previews by big Raiders fan Steve Green.
https://www.championbets.com.au/product/nrl-tips/

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