The Greenhouse

RedRaider wrote: ↑June 8, 2019, 2:29 pm

edwahu wrote: ↑June 8, 2019, 2:07 pm Yes, that is clear. You believe Williams has objectively outperformed Sezer defensively this year.

Now who do you subjectively think is the better defender and by what margin?

Ed, I see on here often Sam Williams being bagged so I like to go to the objective facts to determine what is opinion and what is really justified. I have provided the facts in my prior post so I'll stick with that.

I've read your post where you say Aiden Sezer is the best defensive half in the comp. I take it that is based on the subjective stats which rely on opinion. At the last Federal Election I think we saw the unreliability of variable opinion based stats - just like Gus and his opinion about Nic Cotric in the last SOO match.

It doesn't bother me that others have different opinions to me. I just like to be objective and use stats which are a verifiable measure.

But what is your view based on what you see?

The problem i have with your use of tackles and missed tackles is the same objective stat shows that Blake Austin is the best defensive player of the three. It is not a measure on which to judge defensive performance, it is only an indicator of work rate unless the numbers are a total outlier.

I based my opinion regarding Sezer on my subjective view and this is supported by the fact that there has not been a single try scored against us where he has had any contribution to it. You would have to agree that is also an objective fact.

As for try cause stats, these are not perfect but these statistics produced by multiple observers, with no club bias, all using the same stats guides. The fact they are anonymous is totally meaningless. It also consistently fits the eye test as we saw with Blake Austin who ended up having to leave the NRL his defense was so poor.

Williams v Sezer very much reminds me of Buttriss v Waddell Mk II .

gangrenous wrote: ↑June 8, 2019, 2:37 pm I actually think this team can win a grand final with either Williams or Sezer.

More likely to do so with a better halfback, but I think saying we’ll never win a premiership because one of these guys plays half forgets that they have both performed well in teams making legitimate tilts at the big prize before.

Personally I think we're no chance of that, but each to their own.

The further you get into the pointy end of the season, the more I see a quality half needing to take the bull by the horns for their team time and time again. To me it's the ultimate time when the chaff is separated from the wheat, and we're tending to come up as the chaff.

afgtnk wrote:

The Rickman wrote: ↑June 8, 2019, 2:24 pm

afgtnk wrote:I think the main problem here is that anyone in the Williams 'camp' clearly knows he's not a regular starting half, and are happy to see him play until we get a quality halfback on board. We can't win a premiership with him as first choice.

The people in the Sezer camp on the other hand seem to hold absurd this underlying belief that he just hasn't come good yet and is actually good enough to lead us to a premiership. Almost as if the last three years of performances and his clear lack of ability mean nothing when he comes back to make 9 tackles and take an intercept try.

It doesn't matter what Sezer does, please understand - he is not good enough. He is being paid twice what our back up is yet the very fact we continue to have these debates about the two tells you all you need to know about his lack of quality as a front liner.

We cannot get a quality halfback to this club soon enough. You don't get anywhere with Aidan Sezer as your halfback. The day he leaves will be **** momentus, if only to stop the ludicrous arguments on behalf of those who seem to still think he's a budding superstar.

Why do people have to have a “camp”? Why can’t you change your opinion based on the facts in front of you? I was happy for Williams to stay in the team after the first few wins he had because I thought he’d earned his spot. But it was obvious to me that he still has the same deficiencies in his game he’s always had, and Sezer at his best complements the team perfectly, as we saw last night (although he still has plenty of improvement to come IMO)

This whole idea that once you’ve made up your mind on a player you have to stick with it until the end of time is absolutely rubbish

My opinions don't change like a piss in the wind mate, and my position doesn't change in a total sense unless I see something substantial occur. Change opinions based on the facts - has the last 3 years of crap from Sezer STILL not convinced you?. Or to trundle out an old classic, do you still think he needs to time to 'gel'.

No halfback we have is good enough. We desperately need a good one to realise our potential as a team.

Williams is a good back up, he's cheap, he's professional, we can reliably play him when we need to.

Sezer is not a starting player and his output v cost ratio is far lower than Williams'. If he wants to earn around Williams' salary and be a backup, then it's a different discussion.

I would rather Williams get the game time because to me he's the one should stay (as a back up) and Sezer's the one who clearly needs replacement.

If a 5-6/10 performance from a guy that is widely considered as a bottom rung half is proof as fact that he's right for the job, you probably need to consider your understanding of the game.

All this cost vs performance analysis is absolute garbage, the ONLY question for right now is who should be picked next week at halfback.

And that is 100% Aiden Sezer, and if you think otherwise you’re probably carrying around some sort of ridiculous grudge

gangrenous wrote:I actually think this team can win a grand final with either Williams or Sezer.

I agree, but I also think Sezer at his best gives us a much higher chance of that.

Absolute garbage? Cost v performance is THE single most important thing we as a club should be worried about in pursuit of a premiership. That we probably don't would go a helluva long way to explain why we have been so unsuccessful in the NRL era. If there's any chance to dump Sezer and sign a halfback of quality by June 30 then it should 100% be done.

Should he picked for next week?. Yes, we've shown we're generally gonna stick with a winning team. This isn't a week to week thing though - there is something much bigger at play here and we cannot afford to get it wrong.

afgtnk wrote: Williams is a good back up, he's cheap, he's professional, we can reliably play him when we need to.

Sezer is not a starting player and his output v cost ratio is far lower than Williams'. If he wants to earn around Williams' salary and be a backup, then it's a different discussion.

I would rather Williams get the game time because to me he's the one should stay (as a back up) and Sezer's the one who clearly needs replacement.

If a 5-6/10 performance from a guy that is widely considered as a bottom rung half is proof as fact that he's right for the job, you probably need to consider your understanding of the game.

More red herrings than a fish market here!

You're trying to make this a thread about recruitment and money-ball...it's actually a thread about selections.

Irrespective of what happens next year, Sezer is a better player this year. Is he top-shelf? No. Did anyone say he was?

Last night's performance did not prove that he was a match-winner (he isn't)...what it proved is that he can successfully play a contributing role leading to a stellar team performance. He has also proved in the past that he can play a contributing role to a stinking team performance...(as Williams has proved lately). The difference is that he has some upside (as we saw last night)...Sammy has none.

Again, it's not a performance issue...it's an inherent ability issue. Sezer is not top-shelf, but he's got a much better pedigree than Sam, and that is the sole reason why he should play. Other considerations like potential player movements are just minutiae compared to this central consideration.

RedRaider wrote: ↑June 7, 2019, 11:53 pm

zim wrote: ↑June 7, 2019, 10:36 pm Sezer was great in defense. Our line looked a lot more composed.

Sezer was very good with the ball in hand tonight. According to the stats he made 9 tackles. Last week Sam made 31.

If I'm reading your point correctly, and I think I am, I agree it's nice not to have such an obvious target for the attack to run at.
He was good in helping shut down what came his way so they went elsewhere.

The cost-performance side of things is a recruitment/retention issue
Not a selection issue

Aldjdhdha isn’t moving the goal posts, he’s flat out digging them up and shipping them interstate!

You don’t pick an inferior player to play on the weekend because they’re cheaper. And as an aside we don’t have any idea on what Williams is on, or anyone else so the idea that the fans can do accurate cost analysis is obscene. We’re just guessing. I’d love to know what the players earn but at the moment our analysis has no real basis, other than generally we want players out performing their pay packet for optimal salary cap management

And as an aside, I’d bet Williams a lot more than people think, he’s not here for cokes and pies. And that’s the quality of play he gives us so his cost analysis won’t be **** pretty either!

And again, that’s retention/recruitment. Playing the cheaper but inferior player is page one of the sunk cost fallacy. Whilst ever Sezer and Williams are on the books, you play the best, which is undoubtedly Sezer

The only time their salary vs performance is relevant is when we are deciding who to keep.

Couldn't agree more. Well said.

gangrenous wrote: ↑June 8, 2019, 11:26 am

PigRickman wrote: I think the bulldogs did what every team does when they get the chance - run a **** ton of plays at Sam williams

Dean Pay was our defensive coach for years, he of all people knew where his best shot was

Despite the Bulldogs throwing absolutely everything they had at him, they scored 10 points and Williams had no try causes. I’m not saying he had a brilliant defensive game. But it’s far from a stamp his card never to play again game.

I think it’s probably a bit of both. Defensively weak half and new centre. Why not attack both!

The problem with the dogs is everything they have amounts to barely anything, because they are one of the least talented team I’ve ever seen, especially on the edges.

But Sam Williams is always going to make more tackles than Sezer, and that’s because you target weaknesses not strengths

I think it's pretty safe to assume William's isn't on much, he was signed when he wasn't even a first choice half for wakefield trinity(he was coming off the bench most weeks)

We've been here and done this dance before, Pig.

If Sezer was undoubtedly better as you say, he wouldn't have been kept out by Williams in the first place. They're on or about the same level, which is why we're having these debates.

Games like last night shouldn't bother anyone, we would've won regardless of who was playing in the 7. It was Jack who was the main half again last night and aside from a couple of opportunistics plays, Sezer had little bearing on the result. In terms of playing as a genuine halfback he was poor, yet again. I've seen enough of him to know that he lacks composure and compeltely wilts under pressure, far more so than Williams. That's what's killed us in the past two seasons. However, he will keep his spot for next week as he should.

The week to week proposition is important because it plays into the long term, which in the NRL world is quite short. If keeping Sezer in Mounties increases the chances of him agitating for a move out and leaving early (which by logic it should), enabling us to free up money and bring in an upgrade, then that's what we need to do. Or, we could keep playing him and then have him keep up his heels because he's getting game time and contracted until 2020 - despite us being in clear need of an upgrade. Regardless of your assertion that we shouldn't speculate on players salaries (which mind you is something you absolutely LOVE doing) we know he is on far more money than Williams and we're far from getting bang for our buck.

This business at the top end is cut throat and we are where we are because we haven't manipulated our roster like that. I'd go as far as to say that people are deluded if think the wider view isn't more important here. This topic is only about who's better week to week? Rats **** ****. They're both ****.

I do love speculating on player salary, and that whole team building stuff
But given we don’t even know a rough estimate on what Williams is on, and Sezer at 500-600k would be one of the lowest paid starting halves in the league, what can said?

But that’s aside the point, that has absolutely zero relevance to who plays week in and week out

Sezer and Williams are both sunk costs, it doesn’t matter who’s paid more in relation to team selections. You can either pick the best player or keep winning team
The only reason Williams was ahead of Sezer was the team winning in spite of his piss poor defence, the moment the wins dried up, the coach gave Sam a few weeks do salvage it and he **** his pants
So now the better player plays. Which is not to say he’s a stud, just he is a lower level fg footballer, something Sam Williams is not.
Simple

You don’t pick an inferior player to start in your team because he’s cheaper. That’s just absurd

Conversation seems to have shifted from who should be picked to who is better value for money. That's a pretty clear admission that Sezer should start before Williams purely on performance. The question of how much they are paid should only be raised around contract time.

I'll put it back in this thread, even though it basically responds to/updates with my discussion with @The Rickman among others... Since I am watching a replay right now...

I totally sold Sezer short on one aspect of his short kicking game (wordplay!)- he is basically robbed of a try assist in putting in a perfect grubber that pulled up speed in that perfect zone just as their winger/FB was approaching and our chasers were arriving at it- which allowed for the Croker flick and Whitehead soccer shenanigans to follow.

Great skill and effort by all involved in the spectacular later but it was a very good Sezer kick to allow it all to happen in the first place.

@RedRaider... don't know where Zero Tackle get their statistics from... I trust the NRL's statisticians most, and Fox Sports Lab next. The trouble with the NRL stats is, they are awful in terms of being able to do comparisons, which is where the Fox Sports Lab has an advantage.

Here are the defensive stats compared directly for Sam and Aidan according to Fox Sports Lab: https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-pr ... isAvg=true

I think it is pretty clear Aidan Sezer is the better defender, looking at those stats and by the eye test. I am not pushing one or other, I think they both have their relative strengths and areas where they can improve. Overall, they're players who perform in the same ball park.

Also, a lot of stats are subjective, not just try causes. Missed tackles can be very subjective, themselves. Try assists is another classic, where players are given TAs for doing very little, while others who conjure them miss out.

afgtnk wrote: ↑June 8, 2019, 5:17 pm If Sezer was undoubtedly better as you say, he wouldn't have been kept out by Williams in the first place. They're on or about the same level, which is why we're having these debates.

This is a fallacy, plain and simple. Sezer played a very good game in Round 1 against the Titans. He then did not play so well against the Storm - but a lot of our players did not play so well against the Storm!

Sezer then got injured. Not dropped, injured. He was out for two or three weeks. By then, we had started our winning run, and as was pointed out several times, you don't change what's working unless you have to. Williams also tends to do best when he's on an extended run, so he was given that opportunity. While he did well for a while, he's really fallen away in the last few weeks, and so the coach made the correct decision that it was time to bring Sezer back in.

It's not proof that Williams is better...if anything, it's proof that Williams is just lucky. Or Sezer is unlucky.

I say keep chopping and changing the two and bring Hingano into the mix until one of them owns it and makes it their own. Gotta give Sezer another crack based on his last run but if he can’t sort out his kicking game roll the dice on Hingano or Williams. Hopefully one of the three will eventually string some form together that takes the selection decision out of Ricky’s hands and kills off all debate. Personally I don’t care who it is it I just want a good 7. I’d love Hingano to come from the clouds and surprise us all with world beating form but I think it’s more likely Sezer will get the gig with his stronger defence and serviceable attack.

This tigers game and the NRL.com stats is a perfect example of just how insane the NRL.com try assists stat is

Whitehead, Cotric and CNK are credit with try assists this game

Sezer kicks deftly behind the line, Croker regathers, toes the line, throws a pass back inside, whitehead throws a leg out and it lands in Simonsson’s arms... try.

Sezer breaks the line, draws the fullback, kicks for the winger, Cotric plays it off his foot for a Rapana try

Bateman kicks, Charnze regathers and shuffles off to Bateman straight away for a try

None of the people who created the try got credit for those try’s via TA’s
It’s such a dumb way they do it

It's seems to be that it's always the last play which lead to the player been able to score unimpeded. It makes sense to draw a line if you want an objective measure. The problem is the name isn't great and they don't provide the criteria used.

Fox Sports splits it into try involvements/assists/contributions which is probably better, but again we don't know what makes something one category or the other.

Sezer also looks like he has 2 more try assists on the fox stats vs NRL.

I've been critical of Sezer in the past but saying he was poor the other night is just silly. He was very good, happy for him to stay in the side if he keeps putting up performances like that. That's the challenge though, he's had good games for us before then goes missing for a month. His best game is better than Williams best game though. Anyone that argues that is just holding a grudge.

edwahu wrote: ↑June 9, 2019, 7:37 am It's seems to be that it's always the last play which lead to the player been able to score unimpeded. It makes sense to draw a line if you want an objective measure. The problem is the name isn't great and they don't provide the criteria used.

Fox Sports splits it into try involvements/assists/contributions which is probably better, but again we don't know what makes something one category or the other.

Sezer also looks like he has 2 more try assists on the fox stats vs NRL.

Yeah fox always award the TA to the kicker every time. Rightly so. Sezer awarded 2 try assists on Supercoach.

Fox Sports also have a last touch assist or something of that nature, I can’t remember exactly what it is but yeah they take the time to really make sure what they put out has some logic and merit to it
Which is why I got Fox Sports over NRL all day and twice on Sunday

Billy Walker wrote: ↑June 9, 2019, 12:49 am I say keep chopping and changing the two and bring Hingano into the mix until one of them owns it and makes it their own. Gotta give Sezer another crack based on his last run but if he can’t sort out his kicking game roll the dice on Hingano or Williams. Hopefully one of the three will eventually string some form together that takes the selection decision out of Ricky’s hands and kills off all debate. Personally I don’t care who it is it I just want a good 7. I’d love Hingano to come from the clouds and surprise us all with world beating form but I think it’s more likely Sezer will get the gig with his stronger defence and serviceable attack.

At first I thought your idea of constantly switching halfbacks was insane, then I remembered the Storm rotated through like 8 halfbacks last year and made the GF

PigRickman wrote: ↑June 9, 2019, 10:22 am Fox Sports also have a last touch assist or something of that nature, I can’t remember exactly what it is but yeah they take the time to really make sure what they put out has some logic and merit to it
Which is why I got Fox Sports over NRL all day and twice on Sunday

They do. Although Williams was awarded a TA for the Kris try last week, I'd argue that could've easy gone to Oldfield for the bat back. Kicker is always awarded the TA on Fox no matter what happens after it.

BadnMean wrote:I'll put it back in this thread, even though it basically responds to/updates with my discussion with @The Rickman among others... Since I am watching a replay right now...

I totally sold Sezer short on one aspect of his short kicking game (wordplay!)- he is basically robbed of a try assist in putting in a perfect grubber that pulled up speed in that perfect zone just as their winger/FB was approaching and our chasers were arriving at it- which allowed for the Croker flick and Whitehead soccer shenanigans to follow.

Great skill and effort by all involved in the spectacular later but it was a very good Sezer kick to allow it all to happen in the first place.

Make no mistakes about it, Sezer had a very good game, and I believe the best game by a halfback in green this season to date

The fact affgfhfjrmfifkf is already rewriting history to say he had little to no impact on the game is laughable in itself really and tells you all you need to know about this debate

PigRickman wrote: ↑June 9, 2019, 7:07 am This tigers game and the NRL.com stats is a perfect example of just how insane the NRL.com try assists stat is

Whitehead, Cotric and CNK are credit with try assists this game

Sezer kicks deftly behind the line, Croker regathers, toes the line, throws a pass back inside, whitehead throws a leg out and it lands in Simonsson’s arms... try.

Sezer breaks the line, draws the fullback, kicks for the winger, Cotric plays it off his foot for a Rapana try

Bateman kicks, Charnze regathers and shuffles off to Bateman straight away for a try

None of the people who created the try got credit for those try’s via TA’s
It’s such a dumb way they do it

Lol. One can only imagine how you would have described that kick if it was Williams, deft wouldn't be the four letter word of choice.

Don't get your knickers in a knot if you wear them, Ken Rogerworthy / edabomb / campeasy lover.

Azza wrote: ↑June 9, 2019, 2:28 pm Don't get your knickers in a knot if you wear them, Ken Rogerworthy / edabomb / campeasy lover.

It reminded me of some of the tries that have come off nothing kicks from Williams, which were described as such on here. Surely you see the humour in that AA-run?

Sezers short kicking game was nothing short of horrendous. I thought he kept them in the game in the first half.That said his running game and defense were solid. He definitely retains his spot this week. I just wish he could get his short kicking game back on track. We need it particularly until Hodgo returns

Yeah, Sezer had a really good game. I thought he was really solid in defence - which reflected the entire team's resolve, and I thought that commitment in defence was the foundation of a good quality running game from him.

A couple of his short kicks were not good though, so there are always areas for improvement. That possibly came from adrenaline and nerves as much as anything else. The 7 tackle sets hurt as does finding legs. Some of his kicks were fantastically weighted though.

I thought Sezer was better than Williams has been in the past month or so. On that basis, it was the correct decision by Stuart to select him, and he clearly deserves to keep his spot.

He's a talented halfback. Just needs a bit of confidence back in his game...which is easier said than done for many people.

Another quote from Sezer again stating he's not really an organising half and never has been.....

Aidan Sezer on his return to first grade: "Going back and playing reserve grade for the first time in my career I think it was revitalising. It made me realise what the game is about and playing what you see. I think I got caught up for the last few years trying to steer the ship and coming into grade it probably wasn't my strongest attribute. My attribute was my running game and kicking off the back of that."

With Hodgo being our primary organiser, I think it's fine to have 2 running halves. That said, he needs some sort of kicking game for us to be a premiership threat.

He just needs to be a bit more consistent with his short kicking game. Wighton is developing quite well in his long kicking and he has a killer bomb in him, while Hodgo also has a decent long kick out of dummy half and obviously has a neat short kicking game when he doesn't over play his hand.

IMO Sezer just needs to focus on those cross field chips, which are generally quite good and he needs to stop overcooking the grubbers into the in-goal. He really only needs to be our 2nd or 3rd option for clearing kicks, so the focus there is just trying to find the grass rather than put it straight down the fullback's throat.

Between Hodgson, Wighton and Sezer we seem to have all the bases covered - they just need to focus on their strengths, as the three of them complement each other quite well.