2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

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Who will win?

Raiders 13+
2
20%
Raiders 1-12
0
No votes
Draw
0
No votes
Tigers 1-12
3
30%
Tigers 13+
5
50%
 
Total votes: 10

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2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » August 7, 2018, 4:17 pm

2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

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Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
Sunday 12 August 2:00pm
Canberra Stadium
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Morning frost. Partly cloudy Partly cloudy. Patches of morning frost. Light winds becoming northwest to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h early in the morning then becoming light in the late evening. Chance of any rain: 5 per cent. Min -1 Max 12

Round 21 2018. Penrith Panthers 40 - Canberra Raiders 31. Yet more heartbreak. The Raiders led by 14 points at half time. At almost the mid point of the second half, the Raiders led 30-18. They still led, narrowly, with less than eight minutes remaining. But for the fourth time in a row, the Panthers ran over the top of the Raiders in the final stages.


2018 Round 21 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers

More on Round 21: As I saw it

In Round 22, the Raiders return home to Canberra Stadium to meet the Wests Tigers, the first of three straight games at home. Canberra coach Ricky Stuart has named an unchanged line up from the team that lost to the Penrith Panthers last week. For the Wests Tigers, Malakai Watene-Zelezniak comes in for Corey Thompson (ankle) on the wing. Luke Garner has been named in the second row, with Elijah Taylor moving to lock and Matt Eisenhuth to the bench. Robbie Rochow has been included the bench, with Jacob Liddle dropping to the reserves list. It is possible Mahe Fonua could return from a broken arm, after being named as a reserve.

Late changes: For the Raiders, Makahesi Makatoa and Emre Guler were omitted from the Canberra Raiders' extended bench on Saturday afternoon, with no other changes to the team. The Wests Tigers omitted Chris McQueen and Tyson Gamble from their squad.

History: The Raiders have won 16 of 34 matches against the Wests Tigers, a 47 per cent win rate. Including games played against the Wests Magpies and Balmain Tigers prior to the joint venture, the Raiders have won 49 of 91 contests. But that 54 per cent win rate is significantly boosted by the 75 per cent win rate against the Magpies. The Tigers have always been a bit of a bogey team for the Raiders... excepting the 1989 Grand Final.

The Raiders have, however, won six of the past 10 matches between the clubs, and the last four straight. Canberra won 48-12 earlier this year against the Tigers at Campbelltown. They also won the only match played between the clubs in 2017, 46-6, at Canberra Stadium. Canberra topped 50 points in both wins over the Tigers in 2016. The Raiders have a relatively poor record at home against the Wests Tigers, winning just half of the 18 matches played at Canberra Stadium. The Raiders, however, won four of five matches played against Balmain at the venue, and all seven played against the Wests Magpies.


2018 Round 15 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers


2017 Round 3 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers

This week’s "History Happens"? Let's go back to the final round of 2016, with the Wests Tigers finals hopes on the line... and the Raiders aiming for the top two. And what a magic afternoon it turned out to be... and most famous for Joey Leilua's magical flick pass to Jordan Rapana.


2016 Round 26 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers

Form: In the five matches since the two teams last met in Round 15, the Tigers have a LWWLW form line. They have beaten the Dragons and Rabbitohs in that time, and defeated the Newcastle Knights 25-16 in their last outing. The Raiders are on a WWLLL form line in their past five.

Betting: The Raiders are $1.56 favourites in the match, with the Tigers paying $2.45. The Tigers have 5.5 points start in the line betting.

Stat attack: It is a clash between ninth (Tigers) and 10th (Raiders) on the competition ladder. Canberra has an eight and 12 record in 2018, while the Tigers are 10 and 10. Canberra has played nine matches against top eight teams and is yet to win one. The Tigers have won five of 10 matches against top eight sides.

The Raiders are ranked first in the NRL for total points (489) scored in 2018. They are just one try behind the first ranked team for most tries this season (Rabbitohs 83, Raiders 82). The Tigers rank dead last in the league in attack (16 points and 2.5 tries scored per match, compared with 25 points and 4.1 tries per match for the Raiders). The Tigers, however, have a better defensive record, conceding 18 points (2.9 tries) per match, compared with 24 points (3.8 tries) for the Raiders. The Raiders rank fourth worst in defence, the Tigers fourth best.

The Raiders remain the only team in the bottom eight with a positive points differential (+15), and have a better points differential than three teams above them (Tigers -36, Warriors -14, Broncos -6).

The Tigers average slightly more running metres (Tigers 1482m, Raiders 1423m per match) and more kicking metres (Tigers 496m, Raiders 386m per match). The Tigers have a slightly better completion rate (Tigers 79 per cent, Raiders 77 per cent), with both teams averaging 10 errors per match. The Raiders are the least disciplined team in the competition, ranking first for penalties conceded. They concede 10 penalties per match, compared with eight for the Tigers. The Tigers receive the fewest penalties in the NRL, an average of seven per match, compared with 8.5 for the Raiders. The Tigers make more offloads (11-9 per match on average), while the Raiders make more line breaks (Raiders five, Tigers three per match).

The teams have a similar tackle efficiency rate (Tigers missing 38 of 391 tackles required on average per match, the Raiders missing 33 of 340).

Our tip: The Raiders now only have "mathematical" chance of making the finals. They must win every remaining match - and depend on the Warriors, Broncos or Sharks to lose all of their matches, and the Tigers to lose three. The Tigers will probably be that little bit more desperate to win than the Raiders - as they are still just four competition points away from the teams at the bottom of the eight.

The Raiders continue to be affected by injury and suspension, missing captain Jarrod Croker (knee), Michael Oldfield (knee), Ata Hingano (ankle) for the remainder of the season, and fullback Jack Wighton for the rest of the regular season. The back line stocks are particularly thin, with Blake Austin forced to play left centre - last week with mixed results.

It is surprising to me that the Raiders are favourites in this match - with the Tigers having the better recent form. The Raiders have an advantage in attack, and that's reflected in their recent record of handing out thrashings to the Tigers. However, the Tigers have the advantage in defence - and have toppled some big name teams. The other worrying thing is the inclusion of Benji Marshall in the Tigers' line up. He's won the 10 matches he's played at Canberra Stadium, with three different clubs. He's also won 17 of 18 matches he's played against the Raiders.

Both teams are very inconsistent, so this really will be a case of which Raiders and Tigers teams "turn up" on the day. Flip of a coin, this one.

What they're saying:

Shannon Boyd: "We can score the points... we're just leaking way too many points at critical times. Whether we're putting too much pressure on ourselves and then force errors or mistakes by trying to do too much."

Sam Williams on whether young players should be blooded in the final month of the competition: "Ricky will pick the team that he thinks can win the game on the weekend. For the players that are leaving they want to leave on the right note and the players that are going to be here we want to send them out on the right note - that's winning football games.

Canberra Raiders

1. Nick Cotric
2. Brad Abbey
3. Blake Austin
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Aidan Sezer
7. Sam Williams
8. Sia Soliola
9. Josh Hodgson (c)
10. Junior Paulo
11. Joe Tapine
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Josh Papalii

14. Dunamis Lui
15. Shannon Boyd
16. Siliva Havili
17. Luke Bateman

18. Liam Knight
19. Jack Murchie

Wests Tigers

1. Moses Mbye
2. David Nofoaluma
3. Esan Marsters
4. Kevin Naiqama
5. Malakai Watene-Zelezniak
6. Benji Marshall
7. Luke Brooks
8. Russell Packer (c)
9. Robbie Farah
10. Ben Matulino
11. Michael Chee Kam
12. Luke Garner
13. Elijah Taylor

14. Alex Twal
15. Sauaso Sue
16. Robbie Rochow
17. Matt Eisenhuth

18. Jacob Liddle
21. Mahe Fonua

Officials:

Referees: Ben Cummins, Chris Butler
Sideline Officials: Nick Beashel, Dave Munro
Video Referees: Steve Chiddy, Bryan Norrie

Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLRaidersTigers

The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2018 #FromAllAngles

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Matt
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by Matt » August 7, 2018, 7:07 pm

I see Ricky has stuck with the winning formula from the weekend... oh wait

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by raiderskater » August 7, 2018, 8:27 pm

Anyone else feel like we are going to take this game wayyyyyy not seriously enough and get hammered instead of doing the hammering?
And to all the people who doubted me, hello to them as well. - Mark Webber, Raiders Ballboy and Unluckiest F1 Driver Ever

I'm attacking in the right way, instead of just...attacking in the general direction. - Max Aaron (also eerily apropos for the Green Machine)

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by zim » August 7, 2018, 8:29 pm

Not I. I think we grow a third leg playing the tigpies. We know we can beat them, rather than lose to them at the end.

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by raiderskater » August 7, 2018, 8:41 pm

zim wrote:
August 7, 2018, 8:29 pm
We know we can beat them, rather than lose to them at the end.
Which is exactly what I'm worried about. What we "know".
And to all the people who doubted me, hello to them as well. - Mark Webber, Raiders Ballboy and Unluckiest F1 Driver Ever

I'm attacking in the right way, instead of just...attacking in the general direction. - Max Aaron (also eerily apropos for the Green Machine)

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by Dusty » August 7, 2018, 8:46 pm

I had $50 left in my punters club and I have taken the $2.50 on offer from the Tab for the Tigpies....

We are certainties now


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2019: 1. Wighton 2. Cotric 3. Croker 4 Leilua 5. Rapana 6. ??? 7. Sezer 8. Sutton 9. Hodgson 10. Papalii 11. Tapine 12. Whitehead 13. J.Bateman ----
14. Havili 15. Murchie 16. Soliola 17. Knight

Concentrate on the process and the result will take care of itself...

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by zim » August 7, 2018, 8:47 pm

raiderskater wrote:
zim wrote:
August 7, 2018, 8:29 pm
We know we can beat them, rather than lose to them at the end.
Which is exactly what I'm worried about. What we "know".
Well, the general consensus is you have "nothing" to worry about. Rest easy Image

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by -TW- » August 7, 2018, 8:53 pm

Dusty wrote:I had $50 left in my punters club and I have taken the $2.50 on offer from the Tab for the Tigpies....

We are certainties now


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Wouldn't be surprised if they are favourites by gameday

Also Canberra/WT Half/Full is 9.50

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by Lucky » August 7, 2018, 10:25 pm

To be honest im not sure why we are such hot favourites.... i was expecting $1.90 each.

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by GreenGirl » August 8, 2018, 3:48 pm

How cold will it be for this Queenslander attending the game? Are thermals required?

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » August 8, 2018, 4:05 pm

Weather forecast in the preview.
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by gergreg » August 8, 2018, 7:27 pm

Regardless of the forecast it gets cold at the stadium, particularly for a QLDer. Layer up.
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greeneyed
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » August 8, 2018, 7:38 pm

Given the forecast minimum is -2C!
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by -TW- » August 8, 2018, 8:15 pm

GreenGirl wrote:How cold will it be for this Queenslander attending the game? Are thermals required?
It's been freezing all week, so you're probably gonna die.. just sayin

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by Captain Punish » August 8, 2018, 8:18 pm

Stay home and watch it on TV.

Losing all sensation in your extremities to watch them somehow find a way to lose this game will only make you lose your mind. It's just not worth it.

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by GreenGirl » August 9, 2018, 10:06 am

Captain Punish wrote:
August 8, 2018, 8:18 pm
Stay home and watch it on TV.

Losing all sensation in your extremities to watch them somehow find a way to lose this game will only make you lose your mind. It's just not worth it.

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I’ll be there despite the high chance i’ll be miserable as i’m visiting from Brisbane.

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by GreenGirl » August 9, 2018, 10:07 am

-TW- wrote:
August 8, 2018, 8:15 pm
GreenGirl wrote:How cold will it be for this Queenslander attending the game? Are thermals required?
It's been freezing all week, so you're probably gonna die.. just sayin
So it’ll be a good time then?

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by Ultima » August 9, 2018, 10:38 am

Are people forgetting that Benji is playing for them this time and historically he has always caused us epic problems? Have we ever beaten a team with Benji in it?
Get Stuart to realise he is holding the club back and step down to player manager!

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by edwahu » August 9, 2018, 12:00 pm

Ultima wrote:
August 9, 2018, 10:38 am
Are people forgetting that Benji is playing for them this time and historically he has always caused us epic problems? Have we ever beaten a team with Benji in it?
2012. He has a 17-1 record against us.

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by -PJ- » August 9, 2018, 12:08 pm

edwahu wrote:
August 9, 2018, 12:00 pm
Ultima wrote:
August 9, 2018, 10:38 am
Are people forgetting that Benji is playing for them this time and historically he has always caused us epic problems? Have we ever beaten a team with Benji in it?
2012. He has a 17-1 record against us.
All i know is the last 4-5 times these sides have met the Raiders are 600-40.

Let's see Bunji fix that !!!!
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » August 9, 2018, 1:22 pm

Ultima wrote:
August 9, 2018, 10:38 am
Are people forgetting that Benji is playing for them this time and historically he has always caused us epic problems? Have we ever beaten a team with Benji in it?
Given it’s mentioned in the preview... only if they didn’t read it! :)
The other worrying thing is the inclusion of Benji Marshall in the Tigers' line up. He's won the 10 matches he's played at Canberra Stadium, with three different clubs. He's also won 17 of 18 matches he's played against the Raiders.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=32947&p=1612914#p1612460
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by cat » August 9, 2018, 1:28 pm

GreenGirl wrote:How cold will it be for this Queenslander attending the game? Are thermals required?
Depends where your sitting but i always go thermal, you can always take them off but if you forget them you stay cold :)

It will be the last 20min of the game that will be cold

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by Ultima » August 9, 2018, 3:12 pm

greeneyed wrote:
August 9, 2018, 1:22 pm
Ultima wrote:
August 9, 2018, 10:38 am
Are people forgetting that Benji is playing for them this time and historically he has always caused us epic problems? Have we ever beaten a team with Benji in it?
Given it’s mentioned in the preview... only if they didn’t read it! :)
The other worrying thing is the inclusion of Benji Marshall in the Tigers' line up. He's won the 10 matches he's played at Canberra Stadium, with three different clubs. He's also won 17 of 18 matches he's played against the Raiders.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=32947&p=1612914#p1612460
My bad sorry GE :P
Get Stuart to realise he is holding the club back and step down to player manager!

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by GreenGirl » August 9, 2018, 7:17 pm

cat wrote:
August 9, 2018, 1:28 pm
GreenGirl wrote:How cold will it be for this Queenslander attending the game? Are thermals required?
Depends where your sitting but i always go thermal, you can always take them off but if you forget them you stay cold :)

It will be the last 20min of the game that will be cold

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Thank you. Yeah, I think thermals are on the shopping list for tomorrow...if I can find them in any stores up here.

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by cat » August 10, 2018, 8:42 am

Kathmandu always have them and not expensive, might even have them on sale right now :)

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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » August 11, 2018, 5:34 pm

Preview updated for latest squads, weather, odds: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=32947&p=1612460#p1612460
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by -PJ- » August 12, 2018, 6:51 am

Anything good happening today ?
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider » August 12, 2018, 6:57 am

-PJ- wrote:
August 12, 2018, 6:51 am
Anything good happening today ?
My young fella has his U7s carnival on.
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by -PJ- » August 12, 2018, 7:08 am

Northern Raider wrote:
August 12, 2018, 6:57 am
-PJ- wrote:
August 12, 2018, 6:51 am
Anything good happening today ?
My young fella has his U7s carnival on.
Sounds good NR, have a great day. Where's that at ?

Im off to cut some wood with a mate. Well he cuts while I load. It's mainly for next year even though I'll grab a bit to see out the rest of winter. He's under strict instruction to have me home by kick off.
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider » August 12, 2018, 7:11 am

Am I correct that mathematically we can still either make the top 8 or win the spoon?
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by -PJ- » August 12, 2018, 7:15 am

Northern Raider wrote:
August 12, 2018, 7:11 am
Am I correct that mathematically we can still either make the top 8 or win the spoon?
That can't be right.

Beating the Tigers today avoids the spoon..we should be happy enough with that...
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider » August 12, 2018, 7:28 am

I think if we win all remaining games and Broncos lose their last 3 we will make the 8. Conversely if we lose all our games and Eels, Cowboys etc win then we get the spoon.

Both scenarios highly unlikely to play out.
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by -PJ- » August 12, 2018, 7:35 am

Northern Raider wrote:
August 12, 2018, 7:28 am
I think if we win all remaining games and Broncos lose their last 3 we will make the 8. Conversely if we lose all our games and Eels, Cowboys etc win then we get the spoon.

Both scenarios highly unlikely to play out.
We suck is what you're trying to say !!!
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » August 12, 2018, 8:32 am

Northern Raider wrote:
August 12, 2018, 7:28 am
I think if we win all remaining games and Broncos lose their last 3 we will make the 8. Conversely if we lose all our games and Eels, Cowboys etc win then we get the spoon.

Both scenarios highly unlikely to play out.
At the start of the round, one of the Sharks, Warriors and Broncos needed to lose all their games and the Wests Tigers three, and the Raiders needed to win all their games, for the Raiders to make the eight. The Warriors are now safe, they’ve qualified for finals, after their win. The Broncos would be the team in most danger.

The Raiders could take the spoon, with the bottom three teams just two games behind, and three games to play. The Knights (level), Sea Eagles and Titans (two competition points behind), could more easily overtake the Raiders.
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Re: 2018 Rd 22 V Tigers: Game Day

Post by -PJ- » August 12, 2018, 8:44 am

It won't happen(the spoon)it's not our time...
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