2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

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Who will win?

Raiders 13+
0
No votes
Raiders 1-12
3
38%
Draw
0
No votes
Panthers 1-12
3
38%
Panthers 13+
2
25%
 
Total votes: 8

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greeneyed
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2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » June 5, 2018, 4:50 pm

2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

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Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
Friday 8 June 6:00pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 4:45pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Rain at times. Cloudy. Very high chance of rain, most likely from late this morning. Winds northwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the evening then becoming northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening. Chance of any rain: 90 per cent. Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm Min 4 Max 13

Round 12 2018. Canberra Raiders 21-Manly Sea Eagles 20. Finally, the Raiders were the team that came from behind, to win a close contest in the final five minutes. Finally the Raiders were the team inflicting heartbreak on the opposition. And finally, there was some payback for the two golden point losses suffered at the hands of the Sea Eagles in 2017... not to mention the thrashing at Brookvale earlier this year.


2018 Round 12 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles

More on Round 12: As I saw it

In Round 14 the Raiders will face an even bigger challenge in the form of the top of the table Penrith Panthers at Canberra Stadium. Coach Ricky Stuart has named the same 17 that took the field against the Sea Eagles, but Josh Papalii will start at lock and Sia Soliola in the second row. Dunamis Lui will play his 100th NRL game.

The Panthers have named a 23 man squad, given they have four players backing up from Origin I. The only change in their top 17 is the inclusion of Kaide Ellis in place of the suspended Jack Hetherington on the bench.

Late changes: Emre Guler and Craig Garvey were excluded from the Raiders’ top squad on Thursday night, while Jarome Luai, Caleb Aikins and Liam Martin were omitted from the Panthers squad.

History: The Raiders have won 36 and lost 36 matches against the Penrith Panthers, drawing one. It’s also even between the teams in the past 10 matches, with both teams winning five of the contests. The Raiders lost both matches played between the clubs in 2017. At Bathurst’s Carrington Park, the Panthers scored twice in the final minutes to snatch a 24-20 victory in Round 14. It will be long remembered as one of Canberra’s worst ever “fades”. Then in Round 24, the Raiders again suffered a four point loss to the Panthers, this time on home soil, 26-22. The Raiders do have a good home record against the Panthers, however, winning 21 of 35 games - and 19 of 28 games at Canberra Stadium.


2017 Round 24 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers


2017 Round 14 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers

In this week's "History Happens", we go back just one more year to a happier result... the finals contest of 2016 played at Canberra Stadium. The Raiders lost to the Sharks in Week 1 of the finals at Canberra Stadium, but had still earned the right to another home final against the Panthers in Week 2. And it ended up being a night for the true believers, with the Raiders qualifying for their first Preliminary Final since 1997.


2016 Finals Week 2 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers

Form: The Raiders have a WWLLW form line in their past five matches, while Penrith has a WLWWW record. The Panthers produced a dominant performance in their last match over the Dragons, winning 28-2... and took over the No. 1 spot on the competition ladder.

Betting: Surprisingly, the Raiders are $1.87 favourites in this match, with the Panthers paying $1.97. The Panthers have 1.5 points start in the line betting.

Stat attack: It is a battle between first (Panthers) and 10th (Raiders) on the competition ladder. The Panthers have a 9 and 3 record so far in 2018, while the Raiders are 5 and 7. Canberra has played four matches against top eight teams and is yet to win one. Penrith has won two of just three matches against the top eight.

The Raiders’ attack (22 points and four tries scored per match) is roughly equivalent to the Panthers (23 points and three tries per match). The Panthers, however, have much better defence, conceding an average of just 14 points per game, compared with 22 points conceded per game by the Raiders.

The Panthers have an advantage in average running metres (Panthers 1577m, Raiders 1411m per match) and kicking metres (Panthers 454m, Raiders 381m per match). The Panthers produce slightly more offloads (Panthers 11, Raiders 10 per match). Penrith also has a slightly higher completion rate than the Raiders (Panthers 79 per cent, Raiders 77 per cent) and lower error count (Panthers nine, Raiders 10 per match). Both teams concede 10 penalties per match on average. However, the Raiders produce more line breaks (Raiders five, Panthers four per match on average).

There is not much difference between the teams in tackles made (Raiders 339, Panthers 347 per match) but the Panthers’ tackle efficiency is not quite so good (Panthers 35, Raiders 30 missed tackles per match).

Our tip: The Panthers will be more affected by Origin I than the Raiders, with four Penrith New South Wales players potentially backing up from Wednesday’s Origin match: Nathan Cleary, James Maloney, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Tyrone Peachey. The Raiders will only have Josh Papalii potentially backing up. However I don’t expect this will be an issue for the mostly young Panthers on a two day turnaround. Almost all the numbers point to a Penrith win. Indeed, if the Panthers are genuine contenders they should win this match easily. But the Raiders will be keen for a bit of revenge after the losses of 2017 and I’m somehow sensing a Raiders upset. Raiders by four.

What they're saying:

Elliott Whitehead: "The Panthers have been playing some good footy and they're at the top of the table, so they're going to be a big challenge for us. They are probably good at backing up and they're going to have a good game. Papa has done it in the past for us, so hopefully he comes through unscathed. He'll be a big key for us."

Shannon Boyd on the Panthers’ four players backing up from Origin: "If those four guys decide to play then they'll play as well as they would in any other game. We have to prepare as if they will have all of their Origin players and if they don't well they'll still be the same team with the same principles."

Canberra Raiders

1 Jack Wighton, 2 Nick Cotric, 3 Jarrod Croker (c), 4 Joseph Leilua, 5 Jordan Rapana, 6 Blake Austin, 7 Aidan Sezer, 8 Dunamis Lui, 9 Siliva Havili, 10 Shannon Boyd, 11 Iosia Soliola, 12 Elliott Whitehead, 13 Josh Papalii

14 Ata Hingano, 15 Luke Bateman, 16 Charlie Gubb, 17 Liam Knight

19 Michael Oldfield, 20 Jack Murchie

Penrith Panthers

1 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, 2 Christian Crichton, 3 Tyrone Peachey, 4 Dean Whare, 5 Tyrone Phillips, 6 James Maloney (c), 7 Nathan Cleary, 8 Trent Merrin, 9 Sione Katoa, 10 Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 11 Corey Harawira-Naera, 12 Isaah Yeo, 13 James Fisher-Harris

14 Wayde Egan, 15 Kaide Ellis, 16 Viliame Kikau, 17 James Tamou

19 Tyrone May, 20 Thomas Eisenhuth, 21 Nick Lui-Toso

Officials:

Referees: Henry Perenara, Chris Butler
Sideline Officials: Liam Kennedy, Kasey Badger
Video Referees: Ashley Klein, Bryan Norrie

Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLRaidersPanthers

The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2018 #FromAllAngles

Mounties team: Click here

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Lucky
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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Lucky » June 5, 2018, 8:25 pm

Surprisingly favourites indeed....

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Sid » June 6, 2018, 8:50 am

I can only think that people are overestimating the impact origin is going to have on the players returning.
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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by -PJ- » June 6, 2018, 8:59 am

We've got Henry reffing..that's just aces.
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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by bonehead » June 6, 2018, 12:47 pm

-PJ- wrote:We've got Henry reffing..that's just aces.
Calvin calling the shots in the box

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by raiderskater » June 6, 2018, 4:39 pm

The weather looks absolutely vile on Friday. Probably won't help our ball-handling.
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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by PerthRaider86 » June 7, 2018, 3:26 pm

who would be more suited in the wet?
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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by zim » June 7, 2018, 4:15 pm

The side with the 2 origin halves in good form.

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Brew » June 7, 2018, 4:24 pm

The team highest on the ladder


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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by greeneyed » June 8, 2018, 6:39 am

Game Day preview updated for squads, weather, odds: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=32824&p=1595929#p1595929
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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker » June 8, 2018, 12:58 pm

It's very dark outside and I'm tipping 80 minutes in the rain. Actually not that cold though at this stage but give it time. Think we'll see a good forwards battle but concerned that the Pamffas will have a far superior kicking game, and the ability to slip a greasy ball behind the defensive line will be important tonight.

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider » June 8, 2018, 1:17 pm

PerthRaider86 wrote:
June 7, 2018, 3:26 pm
who would be more suited in the wet?
Rain is a pretty big leveller in the NRL. Makes everything harder for both sides. Whoever makes the most of their chances takes the prize.
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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker » June 8, 2018, 2:12 pm

The rains are ere'

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by jozzas » June 8, 2018, 3:25 pm

IMO wet weather makes field position harder to earn (becomes a slugfest, lateral movement is more difficult) and therefore kicking is more important. I think it favours the Panthers based on that. Hope Sezer can have one of his rare good days with the boot.

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker » June 8, 2018, 3:32 pm

PerthRaider86 wrote:
June 7, 2018, 3:26 pm
who would be more suited in the wet?
The spectators at home in front of the TV.

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by reptar » June 8, 2018, 3:32 pm

I took it more as a philosophical pondering
Gina Riley: Oh, come on, John. That’s a bit old hat, the corrupt IOC delegate.
John Clarke: Old hat? Gina, in the scientific world when they see that something is happening again and again and again, repeatedly, they don’t call it old hat. They call it a pattern.

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by BJ » June 8, 2018, 3:36 pm

Raiders have been a terrible wet weather team for decades. I blame our dry climate.

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker » June 8, 2018, 3:54 pm

If completion rates hit rock bottom for both teams, our fall won't be as big to get there.

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by SeeBee101 » June 8, 2018, 3:58 pm

It's all good guys, we have Blake "what is game management" Austin steering the ship tonight.

We have got this in the bag.... :lol: Panthers by 12....

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by raiderskater » June 8, 2018, 4:53 pm

Filthy weather. Still wish I was going though. Doctor says no.
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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by gergreg » June 8, 2018, 5:07 pm

Even if the Panthers origin players dont play they should account for us easily, especially if both sides play as they have done thus far (this season). Their young forwards have been dominant in most of their games.
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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by The Greenhouse » June 8, 2018, 5:08 pm

Welcome to our coverage of tonight’s NRL clash between the Canberra Raiders and Penrith Panthers. Both teams are 1-17. Here are the final lineups:

Raiders: 1 Jack Wighton, 2 Nick Cotric, 3 Jarrod Croker (c), 4 Joseph Leilua, 5 Jordan Rapana, 6 Blake Austin, 7 Aidan Sezer, 8 Dunamis Lui, 9 Siliva Havili, 10 Shannon Boyd, 11 Iosia Soliola, 12 Elliott Whitehead, 13 Josh Papalii

14 Ata Hingano, 15 Luke Bateman, 16 Charlie Gubb, 17 Liam Knight

Panthers: 1 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, 2 Christian Crichton, 3 Tyrone Peachey, 4 Dean Whare, 5 Tyrone Phillips, 6 James Maloney (c), 7 Nathan Cleary, 8 Trent Merrin, 9 Sione Katoa, 10 Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 11 Corey Harawira-Naera, 12 Isaah Yeo, 13 James Fisher-Harris

14 Wayde Egan, 15 Kaide Ellis, 16 Viliame Kikau, 17 James Tamou
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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Westsydneyraider » June 8, 2018, 5:10 pm

Damnit !! Was hoping to play against a “halfless” panthers team, need to bring our A game tonight more so now

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by LastRaider » June 8, 2018, 5:26 pm

I hope we empty the tank tonight


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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by scotchberry » June 8, 2018, 5:30 pm

I think our best shot at victory is against a full strength Panthers team as complacency is all through this squad and that would creep in the minute they rested players.

On the other hand the mental midgets were probably sitting all day in the dressing rooms with fingers crossed the Panthers would rest players and they have all now sunk their heads in defeat.

Either way we have typically matched up well against the Panthers in recent contests. A comprehensive Prelim win in 16 followed by outplaying them for the majority of both our matches last season (only for our infamous fade outs in the last 10 minutes).

Big pressure on our bench tonight as Panthers will have Tamou and Kikau coming on after the opening stances.

I think this will be a close game and hopefully the boys have gained some confidence in coming over the top of Manly last match out in the closing stages.

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Green eyed Mick » June 8, 2018, 5:36 pm

Ennis and Gaz ripping into our forwards. Deservedly so.

Tonight they face the best pack in the comp and I expect they will be embarrassed the same way the Rabbits embarrassed us.

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Kryptonite » June 8, 2018, 5:38 pm

You ripper game day and we are Frrrrresh baby and the chocolate soldiers are still on the piss from origin, if cant roll these pretenders now we never will, and boy do we owe tgem for tge Bathurst Debacle AND knocking us out of the race for 8th spot ladt season AND it will be the first team above us on the table we beat thus season, so, dont let hs diwn boys!
Caaaaaaarn the Green Machine!

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider » June 8, 2018, 5:39 pm

Wow, our bench is as uninspiring as it gets.
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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by raiderskater » June 8, 2018, 5:43 pm

Sportsbet just had Michael Oldfield at $11 for first try scorer for us.

Did I miss something or is this just another example of the typical ignorance of these sorts of things?

EDIT: Nope, Sportsbet being a bunch of moronic turkeybrains.
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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by bonehead » June 8, 2018, 5:47 pm

Northern Raider wrote:Wow, our bench is as uninspiring as it gets.
I like knight but it would've been nice to see Murchie get a shot.

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by raiderskater » June 8, 2018, 5:49 pm

Gasnier with the hype piece for Cotric. As you do.
And to all the people who doubted me, hello to them as well. - Mark Webber, Raiders Ballboy and Unluckiest F1 Driver Ever

I'm attacking in the right way, instead of just...attacking in the general direction. - Max Aaron (also eerily apropos for the Green Machine)

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Raiders666 » June 8, 2018, 5:52 pm

Huge game...if we can somehow come away with a win it will give the boys a whole lot of confidence

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by raiderskater » June 8, 2018, 5:53 pm

Raiders666 wrote:
June 8, 2018, 5:52 pm
Huge game...if we can somehow come away with a win it will give the boys a whole lot of confidence
I can't escape the nagging feeling that this is the sort of game where something stupid and crazy could happen and we could just pull it off...
And to all the people who doubted me, hello to them as well. - Mark Webber, Raiders Ballboy and Unluckiest F1 Driver Ever

I'm attacking in the right way, instead of just...attacking in the general direction. - Max Aaron (also eerily apropos for the Green Machine)

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by 1992 » June 8, 2018, 5:54 pm

All good guys, just played The Rolling Stones - Exile On Main Street

Perfect night time wet weather music.

We got it.
WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP IT'S BEEN

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Re: 2018 Rd 14 V Panthers: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker » June 8, 2018, 5:59 pm

Hooter blowing the hooter!

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