Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
Sunday 20 August 2:00pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 11:30am NYC kick off: 11:45am
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League live Channel 502
Radio: ABC, 2CC
Weather: Severe morning frost. Sunny. Sunny. Areas of morning frost, locally severe. Areas of frost at night. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 0 per cent. Possible rainfall: 0 mm Min -4 Max 13
Round 23 2017. Raiders 36 Warriors 16. The Raiders went to Auckland and did what they had to do. Win. The game was played in the wet, horrible conditions at times, and it is not surprising that it looked a bit scrappy. But the Raiders were able to defend their errors and made the Warriors pay for theirs.
2017 Round 23 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
More on Round 23: As I saw it
In Round 24, the Raiders return home and face the Penrith Panthers at Canberra Stadium in yet another must win match. The Raiders have named an unchanged line up, with Joey Leilua cleared of a serious knee injury after limping off in the Warriors clash. For the Panthers, Peter Wallace (broken hand) has been replaced at hooker by Sione Katoa. Hooker Mitch Rein and Trent Merrin (knee) have both been named on the reserves list.
Late changes: Royce Hunt and Erin Clark were omitted from the Raiders' squad of 21 on Saturday afternoon, leaving Michael Oldfield and Jeff Lima on the reserves list. The Raiders are expected to field their top 17. For the Panthers, Mitch Rein and Viliame Kikau drop out, leaving open the possibility of a return for Trent Merrin.
Matt's Match-ups: Click here
Franko's Five: Click here
History: Canberra has won 36 of 72 matches against Penrith Panthers. In the past 10 matches, it is five wins apiece. The Raiders lost the most recent contest in Round 14 this year, 24-20, with the Panthers scoring twice in the final minutes to snatch victory. However, the good news is that the Panthers have lost their past three matches in the national capital, including last year's Week 2 finals match. In addition, the Raiders have won 19 of 27 matches at the venue.
2017 Round 14 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
2016 Finals Week 2 Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
In this week's "History Happens" we go back to Week 1 of the finals in 2010 - a match which the surging Raiders took from the Panthers at Penrith. The Raiders fans surged as well... after the match to greet their heroes... and the fence crashed down. What a night!
2010 Finals Week 1 Canberra Raiders V Penrith Panthers
Form: The Raiders have a WLWWW record in their past five matches, while the Panthers are on a six game winning streak. Four of the Panthers' wins have been against teams towards the bottom of the ladder, but they have also beaten the Sea Eagles and the Cowboys. It was a 24-16 win in their last start over North Queensland at home.
Betting: The Raiders are $1.52 favourites in this match - strangely, given relative positions on the ladder. The Panthers are paying $2.60 and have 6.0 points start.
Stat attack: It's a match up between 6th and 10th on the competition ladder. The Panthers have a 12-9 record while the Raiders are 10-11. Canberra has a only a 5-5 record at home, while the Panthers are 4-6 away.
Attack: The Raiders are ranked fifth in the NRL in attack (23 points and four tries per match), while the Panthers rank sixth (21.6 points and 3.6 tries per match).
The Raiders and Panthers have relatively poor completion rates (both at 74 per cent) and high error rates (Panthers 11.5 per match, Raiders 11 per match). Both teams receive just over seven penalties per match, and concede around 6.5 per match. Overall, the Panthers average 51 per cent possession (49 per cent for the Raiders).
The Panthers rank third for running metres (1475 metres per match), the Raiders 12th (1383 metres). Penrith average around 13 more runs per match than than Canberra, with the Green Machine making slightly more metres per run (9.3-9.1). Both teams are well down the rankings for kicking metres (at around 410 metres per match). Canberra is second in the NRL for tackle breaks due to the strong running of Rapana, Cotric and Leilua (34 per match, 31 for the Panthers). Both teams produce five line breaks and around 10 offloads per match, while the Raiders produce more try assists (3.5-2.7 per match).
Defence: The Panthers rank seventh for least points conceded, the Raiders 10th. Penrith concede 18.7 points (3.3 tries) per match, compared with 19.6 points (3.3 tries) per match for Canberra. The Panthers rank second for fewest running metres conceded, the Raiders 10th (1339-1417 metres per match). Both teams concede relatively few line breaks (Raiders 3.7, Panthers 4.2 per match). However the Panthers rank second for missed tackles (31 per match, 26 for the Raiders) and first for offloads conceded (11 per match, 10 for the Raiders).
Our tip: The Raiders have the better attacking record, the Panthers the better defensive record. Canberra has the better points differential - in fact they have a better points differential than any team in the top eight apart from the Storm and Broncos.
The Panthers make a lot of metres with the ball in hand, keeping it alive with second phases - and the Raiders concede a lot of metres. At the same time, Penrith doesn't concede metres easily. Canberra's work rate in the forwards will really have to lift, in both attack and defence, if the Raiders are to win. They'll need the sort of work rate they delivered in spades in the Sharks match. The Raiders will have to move up quickly in defence and shut down the Panthers' passing.
Canberra will also need to be strong in the final stages of the game. The Panthers have scored more tries in the final 10 minutes than any other period of their matches. They score 40 per cent of their tries in the final 20 minutes. The Raiders know that only too well... They also score 40 per cent of their tries on the last tackle... so that is also something Canberra will need to watch. There are points in the match where the Panthers are vulnerable - they tend to concede tries in the opening stages and either side of half time. The Raiders should aim to take advantage of that.
Both teams have some momentum and need the victory to keep in the finals hunt. Canberra is in a more desperate situation. They cannot afford a single loss. The Panthers can, however they have three matches against contenders to finish the season. They'll be desperate too. But it's like every week: if the Raiders complete their sets and lay a platform in the forwards, they are capable of the win. Raiders by six.
What they're saying:
Blake Austin on the Panthers: "We've had some pretty big clashes against them in the last couple of years. We finished their season last year and they did what they did to us in Bathurst which really hurt us. We get to play them down in Canberra which will be good, and with the way we've been playing we'll be pretty confident."
Canberra Raiders
1. Jack Wighton
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Blake Austin
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Junior Paulo
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Shannon Boyd
11. Josh Papalii
12. Joe Tapine
13. Elliott Whitehead
14. Kurt Baptiste
15. Clay Priest
16. Dave Taylor
17. Luke Bateman
18. Michael Oldfield
19. Jeff Lima
Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards
2. Josh Mansour
3. Tyrone Peachey
4. Waqa Blake
5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
6. Matt Moylan (C)
7. Nathan Cleary
8. James Tamou
9. Sione Katoa
10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard
11. Corey Harawira-Naera
12. Isaah Yeo
13. Moses Leota
14. Tyrone May
15. Bryce Cartwright
16. Tim Browne
17. James Fisher-Harris
18. Trent Merrin
19. Dean Whare
Officials:
Referees: Ashley Klein, Alan Shortall
Sideline Officials: Chris Butler, Jeff Younis
Video Referees: Bernard Sutton, Luke Patten
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLRaidersPanthers
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2017 #FromAllAngles
NSW Premiership teams: Click here
Holden Cup teams: Click here
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
Pity Campese didn't take the last shot at goal.... hopefully we draw inspiration from that game and get up in this one 
