Horse Racing

[yeh raiders]

The most thrilling Everest I’ve seen.

Nature Strip probably wins if he is ridden slightly smarter or draws a better gate.

But an enormous performance from Giga Kick, Craig Williams and Clayton Douglas.

[Sid]

Anyone see betr 101-1 offer on every horse for the Melbourne cup (max bet $10)
If it looks legit, think I'll join and spread $2.50 each across the favourite 4

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[-TW-]

Might see your money in 2025.

Apparently it's absolute dog ****

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[Sid]

Might see your money in 2025.

Apparently it's absolute dog ****

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Cheers, I won't worry about it then, had only just heard about it

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[Rick]

Might see your money in 2025.

Apparently it's absolute dog ****

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Cheers, I won't worry about it then, had only just heard about it

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Sid does love backing a donkey…


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[yeh raiders]

Might see your money in 2025.

Apparently it's absolute dog ****

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Nah it’s working well for me.

Just be prepared to wait a few days for your withdrawal to arrive in your account.

I’ve been cleaning up on their “if your horse finishes 2nd - 5th, you get double your bet back as credit. Up to $50” promo

[Northern Raider]

I got $21 on Anamoe in thr Cox Plate with Betr. Was going to back Deauville Legend at 100-1 but didn't get on before they reduced the odds on him and Loft. Ended up on Without a Fight.

[-TW-]

I can't see how Deauville Legend wins. No runs at distance, no runs at anything less than a good track

Knights Order won the Sydney Cup at distance in April, and has 2 wins from 3 starts at 3200, plus 3/8 on a soft surface. Prep has been reasonable 3rd in the Caufield Cup and first 4 in it's last 4 starts. Only downside is it's drawn the carpark.

Other one that interests me is Daqiansweet Junior. 3rd in the Sydney Cup and a 1st at distance in March. Soft running is 2/10 so may be the only issue.

As always it will be a crap shoot.

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[Northern Raider]

Really, can't see how it wins? Agree those are genuine queries. Saying it can't win because it hasn't attempted it before I cannot agree with.

I think Deauville is definitely the horse to beat. His value as a betting prospect is appalling though at $3.80. Better off going each way on others.

[Sid]

Are we going to see your annual Melbourne Cup preview NR?

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[Northern Raider]

Are we going to see your annual Melbourne Cup preview NR?

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Not sure I'll have time to do the full runner by runner analysis.

[Sid]

Are we going to see your annual Melbourne Cup preview NR?

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Not sure I'll have time to do the full runner by runner analysis.

All good

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[yeh raiders]

No analysis from NR

[-TW-]

No analysis from NR

Always time to take the batton

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[julian87]

Really, can't see how it wins? Agree those are genuine queries. Saying it can't win because it hasn't attempted it before I cannot agree with.

I think Deauville is definitely the horse to beat. His value as a betting prospect is appalling though at $3.80. Better off going each way on others.

Agree with this 100%

It is obviously the horse to beat. But $3.70 is crazy, crazy stuff.

I missed it on betr so am on Without a Fight @ 101. Don’t like it if it’s worse than a Soft 6 though and the barrier is no good,

I really don’t like too much at all.

Percentages and odds though I guess across the field I’d lean to Lunar Flare and Interpretation down in the weights. Or even picking a genuine stayer who can handle the wet to finish top 10 like Stockman.

I’m in a few syndicates that will have bets on but besides my betr bet I doubt I’ll outlay more than another 20-40 personally because it’s so hard to read.

[Northern Raider]

A more streamlined preview this year.

1. Gold Trip - Raced well in Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate. Seems to be coming here as an afterthought, which I don't like.

2. Duais - I backed her in Caulfield Cup where she plodded. Expecting her to plod again.

3. Knights Order - Will lead from the wide gate. Can run 3200m after winning Sydney Cup. Will be in it a long way until a few run past him late.

4. Montefilia - One of the eye catching runs from the Caulfield Cup. Held up for a run and hi the line hard.She has some class about her. Getting the distance is the query. If she runs it out she's a genuine threat.

5. Numerian - Had his chance when 5th in Caulfield Cup. Harder race here so don't see him winning.

6. Without a Fight - UK visitor been set for this a long way out. Ran 2nd in a Group 2 in Dubai to show he can travel. Hukum just beat him so the form line it top shelf. Best each way bet in the race provided its not too wet.

7. Camorra - Won a weak edition of the Curragh Cup in Ireland then went ordinary in the St Leger. Heavy track that day so doesn't want a repeat here. A bit one paced and may lack the class to be a winning chance. May jag a place at odds.

8. Deauville Legend - Standout on form. He blew away a quality field in the Great Voltiger Stakes (race won by Rekindling the year he won the Cup). Northern Hemisphere 3yos have had a great record in recent years. He's been smashed at he weights though. Carrying about 2kg more than he should. Also a query at the distance an never seen a wet track. He may simply be too good for this field. Good luck if you want to take the $3.70 odds..

9. Stockman - Form is only fair however he's a swimmer so the wetter the better for him. If it's a heavy track he might challenge. Although not with my money.

10. Vow and Declare - 2019 Cup winner who's form fell off a cliff afterward. Back for another tilt and looks to be finding something again, only beaten 2L in the Caulfield Cup. Still can't entertain him winning.

11. Young Werther - Former class 3yo performer been flying under the radar this season. Not far off winners in his first 2 runs then beaten 3L in Cox Plate. Maybe a sneaky one at $40-1.

12. Hoo Ya Mal - Another NH 3yo. 2nd in the English Derby (at 150-1) reads well. Best line is his 3rd at Goodwood with Cup favourite Deauville Legend in 2nd. He's never run a bad race until last start when he flopped in the G1 St Leger. Ignore that run and he's a great chance.

13. Serpentine - Former English Derby winner been a flop since coming to Australia. Best run was last Saturday when 2nd in the Archer. Leaving him out.

14. Daqiansweet Junior - Won Adelaide Cup so he gets 3200m. Means he'll beat plenty home. Plenty will also beat him home.

15. Grand Promenade - Beaten more than 12L in the Cup last year. Not going as good this year, which explains why he's pushing 100-1.

16. Arapaho - He's been going OK in weaker races. Hard to see him improving in a harder race.

17. Emissary - Won Geelong Cup, which has been a good indicator in the past. Not this year though.

18. Lunar Flare - Been racing well around Francesco Guardi who bolted in the Moonee Valley Cup. In a relatively weak Melbourne Cup I'd give her a big chance. Red flag when vets found signs of lameness in her pre-race check. Will undergo further checks tomorrow so could be a scratching.

19. Smokin Romans - Was hot favourite in the Caulfield Cup when he was a bit disappointing. Don't really see him as a 3200m horse. Probably should have targeted the Cox Plate instead.

20. Tralee Rose - Beaten 16L in the Cup last year. Going worse this year.

21. Point Nepean - Scratched. Wasn't winning anyway.

22. High Emocean - Won the Bendigo Cup last week. Honest mare who rarely runs a bad one. Query that she's up to this class. Handles wet which is a plus. Seen worse 40-1 shots.

23. Interpretation - Beaten 0.5L behind Lunar Flare in the Bart Cummings 2 runs back. That was his peak performance this prep so don't expect him in the finish.

24. Realm of Flowers - A couple of solid placings in Sydney on heavy tracks so the wet won't concern her. Been a shortener in the market and is now 2nd favourite. I don't rate the form lines that high.

Summary:
I'll tip Deauville Legend as the winner although I don't encourage backing him at the price. Each way Without a Fight is the best betting option. Didn't mind Lunar Flare except the vet report is a concern. Throw in Hoo Ya Mal for the exotics

[-TW-]

Really, can't see how it wins? Agree those are genuine queries. Saying it can't win because it hasn't attempted it before I cannot agree with.

I think Deauville is definitely the horse to beat. His value as a betting prospect is appalling though at $3.80. Better off going each way on others.

Agree with this 100%

It is obviously the horse to beat. But $3.70 is crazy, crazy stuff.

I missed it on betr so am on Without a Fight @ 101. Don’t like it if it’s worse than a Soft 6 though and the barrier is no good,

I really don’t like too much at all.

Percentages and odds though I guess across the field I’d lean to Lunar Flare and Interpretation down in the weights. Or even picking a genuine stayer who can handle the wet to finish top 10 like Stockman.

I’m in a few syndicates that will have bets on but besides my betr bet I doubt I’ll outlay more than another 20-40 personally because it’s so hard to read.

Lunar Flare pulled up lame. Vets inspection in the morning

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[yeh raiders]

Thanks NR!!

I like DL and Hoo Ya Mal. Will pick another 2, probably throw in Montefilia due to her class. If she can run a strong 3200m, I can picture her flashing home down the Flemington straight.

Can’t disagree on Smokin Romans, I can’t see a horse out of Ghibellines winning a Melbourne cup.

[-TW-]

Lunar Flare scratched at 7.32am

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[Northern Raider]

Weather watch in Melbourne. Radar currently clear and track a soft 5. That can change quickly though.

[greeneyed]

It’s hard to imagine a more pretentious and ridiculous “opening ceremony” for the Melbourne Cup.

[greeneyed]

Enjoyed the race. Great reactions from the jockey.

[Rick]

Office sweepstakes came through with the goods. Turned $5 from the ashtray of my car into $66


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[yeh raiders]

It’s hard to imagine a more pretentious and ridiculous “opening ceremony” for the Melbourne Cup.

It’s Melbourne.

[yeh raiders]

No point running the Melbourne Cup, unless we can get Northern Raider's preview...

[Northern Raider]

No point running the Melbourne Cup, unless we can get Northern Raider's preview...

Not sure I'll get the time to do a full preview. Will post something still

[The Nickman]

I'm tipping Gold Trip to go back to back.

Although I'm not convinced he won't do it Without A Fight.

[Dusty]

**** show of a race to tip. I'm going some value... 11. Ashrun @ $41 win, $10 place


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[yeh raiders]

Yep looks very complicated. I’ll also be looking for value, but wouldn’t surprise me to see Gold Trip do it again. He is in form, class horse

[-TW-]

I just put a boxed trifecta on, I generally don't get close on the nose

Gold trip
Vauban
Without a fight
Absurde
Military Mission

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[Sid]

No point running the Melbourne Cup, unless we can get Northern Raider's preview...

Not sure I'll get the time to do a full preview. Will post something still

Hearing reports NR's tips have been scratched.

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[yeh raiders]

No point running the Melbourne Cup, unless we can get Northern Raider's preview...

Not sure I'll get the time to do a full preview. Will post something still

Hearing reports NR's tips have been scratched.

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Stewards report has recommended a gelding operation.

[Northern Raider]

Quick preview with my top picks. Race isn't that deep IMO and there a lot just making up numbers.

In order I like.

1. Without a Fight. Was my bet last year and did no good (wet track?). Stayed out here and has thrived. Think Caulfield Cup is the best form and he was the best Cup trial. Been more than 20 years since a horse did the double so maybe one is due.

2. Vauban. Very impressive in UK on both flat and hurdle races. Reports are he's travelled well. Classy and a big threat to win.

3. Breakup. Japanese horse wasn't really suited at Caulfield. He worked into the race then had a few sprint past. Copper a couple of bumps last 200m which saw him finish a bit further back than he should. He's a tough one paced grinder much better suited over 3200m. His 4th in the Tenno Sho would go close to winning this. Firm track no issue.

4. Gold Trip. Identical prep to last year and going just as well. 58.5kg will be tough to lug around the track and even though he meets Without a Fight 1kg better I don't see him turning the tables. Expect he'll be around the finish. Must have for the multis.

Give a decent chance to Soulcombe and Absurde but won't be putting money on. Think they are too close in betting to those mentioned above and present no value.

Lastotchka is a total wildcard. Could win or come nowhere. Maybe worth an each way saver.

[greeneyed]

The Melbourne Cup “ceremonies” are such a load of pretentious rubbish. It’s a horse race. It doesn’t require singers, harps and string quartets.

[yeh raiders]

Thanks NR.

I usually spread across 4 horses and Breakup has to be included, simply because of the Japanese quality factor.

Gold Trip on trust.

Without a Fight on form.

And maybe Lastochka as the light weight option.

Lay bet on Absurde. Surely, surely a Fastnet Rock won’t win a Melbourne Cup.