Canberra Raiders 2024 Previews with Steve Green

[ChampionBets]

G'day guys, back again for another season. Hope you enjoy the previews!


2024 Round 1: Newcastle Knights v Canberra Raiders

Knights 1.40
Raiders 2.95
Knights -7.5 (1.85) / Raiders +7.5 (1.95)
(Prices from TopSport.com.au)

Knights v Raiders
8pm, Thursday @ Newcastle

Heading into this game, I was surprised to see the line so short. I thought the Knights deserved bigger favourtism based on their 2024 form. But most importantly, it is because the Raiders have not only lost Wighton, but they will be without Horsburgh and Seb Kris for this one due to suspension… so it is a near full strength Knights, at home, against a weakened Raiders outfit.

However, my enthusiasm has been tempered by the Knights poor showing in Fiji in their trial against the Storm. In that match, the Knights forwards were walloped, and Gamble played terribly in the halves. While it was only a trial and there was a chance the Knights struggled due to their low possession in the heat, the Knights looked to have lost the hard edge that made them such a force in 2023.

In contrast, the Raiders played great in both their trials. Their young players look fearless and with experienced guys like Fogarty and Rapana still to come back into the side, the Raiders look like they might not struggle as much as I had feared. But I still have concerns about their spine, and on my system the Knights should be at least 12 point favourites here.

Predicted score
Knights 26
Raiders 12

[The Nickman]

Booooo, Steve… boooooo


(Also, welcome back)

[ChampionBets]

He calls it as he sees it, but there is hope!

[The Nickman]

He calls it as he sees it, but there is hope!

Haha I jest, of course... I always enjoy reading Steve's reviews.

[Seiffert82]

Might be time to revisit the false narrative of Wighton's departure being a negative (it's not), and to actually consider how ordinary the Knight's pack and halves are.

Sent from my CPH2021 using Tapatalk

[ChampionBets]

2024 Round 2: Canberra Raiders v Wests Tigers

Raiders 1.44
Tigers 2.88
Raiders -7.5 (1.85) / Tigers +7.5 (1.95)
(Prices from TopSport.com.au)

Raiders v Tigers
3pm, Saturday @ Canberra Stadium, Canberra

Coach Stuart has the luxury of bringing Seb Kris back as the only change to this winning side, with Hoppa moved to the wing and Cotric missing out. Savage retains his spot after showing he could make a real go being a winger.

The Raiders forwards were far too gritty for the Knights, while Jamal’s kicking game was unreal. His long kicks kept the Knights in their own half and as someone that predicted the Raiders to come last, I am already getting ready to eat humble pie.

However two of the key concerns I raised about the Raiders attack still stand. Strange was ineffective in attack, as was Rapana at fullback. The Raiders played disciplined and tough footy, but they still look easy to contain and I think people may be reading too much into it. The Knights were really quite woeful!

Coach Marshall has already showed his intent as head coach of the Tigers, with 18-year-old Lachlan Galvin and exciting new recruit Jayden Sullivan given starting spots in the halves. As someone that made his name on attacking brilliance, it is clear this Wests side is not going to be a boring grinding machine and we are going to see some ball movement.

I like S Fainu getting a spot on the bench and I really like To’a and Faataape starting in the centres… all of these guys are explosive guys that will throw a lot of attack at the Raiders.

I am interested to see how Wests play and with not much form to go off on their 2024 squad, I am going to stay out of this one. As impressive as the Raiders were in Round 1, I am not willing to invest on them off the back of it and want to see how Strange develops at 6 before I change my opinion of the Raiders chances in 2024.

Predicted score
Raiders 24
Tigers 18

[ChampionBets]

2024 Round 3: New Zealand Warriors v Canberra Raiders

Warriors 1.43
Raiders 2.85
Warriors -7.5 (1.90) / Raiders +7.5 (1.90)
(Prices from Betright.com.au)

6pm Friday,
Rugby League Park, Christchurch

This one is interesting!

Although the Warriors are winless and the Raiders sit on top of the table with two strong wins, the bookies think Warriors deserve solid favouritism.

The Warriors have had two close losses to well respected teams (Sharks and Storm in Melbourne), while Raiders beat a woeful Knights outfit and then trounced Wests in their first outing of their season… so the Raiders form line is hard to pin down.

The Raiders do have consistency, with only minor changes occurring out wide due to Seb Kris out this weekend.

I think the Warriors will bounce back here and get the win. I am also conscious that the Raiders can go up a level when they are full of confidence and momentum.

Predicted score
Warriors 26
Raiders 16

[ChampionBets]

2024 Round 4: Cronulla Sharks v Canberra Raiders

Sharks 1.57
Raiders 2.40
Sharks -4.5 (1.95) / Raiders +4.5 (1.85)
(Prices from Betright.com.au)

6:15pm Sunday,
Shark Park (Sydney)

The Sharks capitulated against Wests last weekend and so it does seem strange they head into this one as strong favourties against a Raiders team that has played good football in all three of its outings so far this season.

I thought the Raiders would struggle in 2024 but off the back of Fogarty’s stellar long kicking game, a strong forward pack and committed defence, the Raiders are playing high competition footy that is hard to beat.

Heading into last week’s game, one question I had was about the strength of the Raiders’ opponents. They had beaten a terrible Knights team and the wooden-spoon favourties, so there was a risk the Warriors would show them up… but after seeing Wests thrash Sharks and then the Raiders come very close to beating the Warriors in New Zealand, I think the Raiders deserve the competition’s respect.

The Sharks have a few forward injury concerns too, but with Hamlin-Uele a chance to return and some young guns at Newtown to draw upon, I think the Sharks will still field a very strong team and at home they are always hard to beat.

The Raiders at the line is tempting in this one and any moves around the key numbers could be interesting.

Predicted score
22 Sharks
18 Raiders

[ChampionBets]

2024 Round 5: Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels

Raiders 1.78
Eels 2.02
Raiders -1.5 (1.85) / Eels +1.5 (1.95)
(Prices from Betright.com.au)

6:15pm Sunday, Canberra Stadium

Both teams were disappointing losers last weekend, with the Eels suffering a surprise defeat against the Tigers and the Raiders blowing an 18 point lead against the Sharks.

Coach Stuart has resisted the urge to make wholesale changes and is sticking with the team that has started the season so strongly. It is worth noting that although the Raiders have won 2 and lost 2, they have played three of their four games away from home and against some quality teams in the likes of Warriors, Sharks and Knights.

As for the Eels, they have also started the season strongly, but they put in their worst performance of the season last weekend and it is no coincidence that this occurred with the absence of Moses and Cartwright. Without these two in-form players, the Eels looked clunky in attack and the Tigers were able to withstand a ton of pressure.

The Raiders have some issues of their own, with Rapana and Strange coming crashing back to reality with some poor performances in Round 3, along with a bench that looked sluggish and poorly organised.

At home, I think the Raiders will improve a lot this week and should be just good enough for the win.

Predicted score
Raiders 20
Eels 18

[ChampionBets]

2024 Round 6: Canberra Raiders v Gold Coast Titans

Raiders 1.35
Titans 3.20
Raiders -8.5 / Titans +8.5 (1.95)
(Prices from Betright.com.au)

6:15pm Sunday, Canberra Stadium

The Raiders played terrific against the Eels and although their capitulation against Sharks in Round 4 was embarrassing, in all of their games they have led at times and shown they are the real deal in 2024.

Although some punters seem to be spooked by the loss of Rapana at 1, Chevy Stewart is a crazy talent and I have faith that he will handle the job.

Hosking is back and Mooney on bench, shows that Coach Stuart is picking on form and has faith in the great kids he has at his disposal.

With youthful backline and some rugged forwards, with a great Fogarty kicking game, the Raiders should be far too strong for this Titans outfit.

While the Titans showed some resilience to fight back against the Cowboys last weekend, I think that was mainly due to some brain explosion and complacency by the Cowboys.

With the Titans outside backs being so flimsy in defence and Raiders so strong in that area, I think the Raiders should pile on points and cover the line here.

Predicted score
Raiders 30
Titans 12

[ChampionBets]

2024 Round 7: Brisbane Broncos v Canberra Raiders

Broncos 1.40
Raiders 2.95
Broncos -7.5 / Raiders +7.5
(Prices from Betright.com.au)

Saturday 7:35pm

The Broncos got the job done against the Dolphins, but they were assisted by the fact the Dolphins lost their best player in the first half of the match. They are still without Haas, Reynolds, Piakura and Mariner, so this is a Broncos team that is far from full strength.

The Raiders are without Rapana and Hosking. Chevy Stewart and Simi Sasagi have shown they have a ton of potential and with the rest of their squad playing so well, I think they are in with a real shot in this one. So far the Raiders have won 4 and lost 2, with their two losses being against the Warriors in NZ (a game they could have won) and the Sharks in Sydney (where they led 18-0).

This Raiders team has surprised me with their defensive reliance and the amazing form / confidence of youngsters like Strange, Savage, Stewart, Mariota… while Fogarty’s kicking better than any other half in the NRL this season.

With experienced Origin and International forwards such as Tapine, Young and Papalii, the Raiders are right in this game and I think the line is too big.

Predicted score
Broncos 19
Raiders 18

[ChampionBets]

2024 Round 8: Canberra Raiders v Cronulla Sharks

Raiders 2.75
Sharks 1.45
Raiders +6.5 / Sharks -6.5
(Prices from Betright.com.au)

Sunday, 4:05pm

The Raiders suffered a cruel blow last weekend, with the loss of Fogarty for 3 months cruelling their momentum and leaving a huge hole in their roster. The one position where the Raiders did not have depth was at 7 and so losing their in-form general play kicker is something that will be very hard to overcome.

The Raiders game plan has been centered on defending Fogarty kicks and building pressure / possession. Against the Broncos, all of that became impossible and the wheels fell apart.

Making matters worse, the rest of the Raiders spine started falling apart, with Levi, Stewart and Strange all playing poorly under pressure.

Back at home and with a week to prepare for life without Fogarty for the foreseeable future, I think the Raiders will come out firing and are not without a hope here, but the Sharks are starting to look clinical in their attack.

Predicted score
Sharks 24
Raiders 16