Canberra Raiders v New Zealand Warriors
Friday 22 March, 6:00pm AEDT
Rugby League Park, Christchurch
Tickets: Sold out
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio coverage: ABC, Mix106.3, 2CC
Weather: Mainly fine. Mainly fine with high cloud. Cloud increasing from the south in the evening. Southwesterlies developing late morning, fresh at times. Min 8C Max 20C Temperature at kick off: 13C
The Canberra Raiders travel to the south island of New Zealand for their Round 3 clash with the Warriors. The match in Christchurch is sold out, so the atmosphere should be thick.
Last round: 2024 Round 2. Canberra Raiders 32 defeated Wests Tigers 12. Two wins from two games. Two wins by more than 13 points. It has been a good start to the season. As good as any Raiders fan could have hoped. The Tigers are a niggly, erratic, at times audacious team. They offload, throw the ball around without a care in the world. So they can be difficult to handle when they have the ball in hand. But apart from a two try flurry from the Tigers in the first half, the Raiders largely had the Round 2 game under control - and the defence was strong.
More on Round 2: As I saw it
Team news: Raiders back Sebastian Kris is unavailable for this match, after he failed an HIA during the win over the Tigers. Albert Hopoate replaces him at cente, with Nick Cotric coming in on the wing. Jordan Rapana passed an HIA after copping a high tackle from Aidan Sezer on Saturday, and is clear to play.
Elliott Whitehead (calf) returns from injury in the second row, pushing Zac Hosking to the bench. Ata Mariota has dropped out of the top 17. Corey Horsburgh is available, after completing a four match suspension - but has not been named in the top squad.
The Warriors are missing former Raiders fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad due to a hamstring problem - and he's not expected back until Round 4 or 5. Wayde Egan returns from an elbow injury at starting hooker, meaning Freddy Lussick drops to the bench.
Late changes: The Raiders omitted Ata Mariota, Trey Mooney and Zac Woolford from their squad on Thursday evening. They are 1-19.
The Warriors have lost Dylan Walker to an ankle injury. Jazz Tevaga comes into the top 17 on the bench. The Warriors left Chanel Harris-Tavita on the reserves list, in case Wayde Egan (elbow) was a very late scratching. Warriors assistant coach Richard Agar said on Friday morning that Egan will not play.
Milestones: This will be the 250th game as head coach of the Raiders for Ricky Stuart. It is also the 100th NRL game in green for Hudson Young.
History: The Raiders have won 26 of 50 games played against the Warriors. The Green Machine has taken out five of the past 10 matches between the clubs - and two of the past five. 2023 saw a resurgence in the form of the Warriors. But that's hardly a dominant recent record for Canberra - against a team that has only made it to the finals twice in the last 12 years.
The Raiders lost both match ups with the Warriors in 2023. In Round 15, the Warriors produced a big, 36-16, win in the 300th NRL match of Raiders captain Jarrod Croker. It was a very disappointing performance from Canberra, with five tries conceded in the second half. There was more heartbreak and drama in Auckland in Round 21. The Raiders scored two tries in the final two minutes to force extra time. However, Shaun Johnson showed why he is Canberra's nemesis - kicking the winning field goal in the second minute of gold point.
New Zealand has not been a happy hunting ground for the Raiders. They've won 10 from 24 games played in the Shaky Isles. The Raiders have never played in Christchurch.
2023 Round 21 - Warriors 21 defeated Raiders 20
2023 Round 15 - Warriors 36 defeated Raiders 14
2022 Round 19 - Raiders 26 defeated Warriors 14
2022 Round 8 - Warriors 21 defeated Raiders 20
2021 Round 24 - Raiders 28 defeated Warriors 16
Form: Raiders: LLLWW
Warriors: LWLLL
The Raiders finished 2023 on a three game losing streak. But they have produced two good victories to open 2024, beating the Knights (28-12) and Tigers (32-12). The Warriors finished fourth on the competition ladder last year. But they were only able to beat the Knights (40-10) in their finals campaign. They suffered big losses to the Panthers (32-6) and Broncos (42-10). And now they have lost their first two games of 2024. The Warriors went down to the Sharks in Auckland (16-12) in Round 1. On Saturday night, they staged a second half comeback against the Storm, taking a 26-18 lead with 10 minutes remaining. But the Storm then produced two last gasp tries to Ryan Papenhuysen and Xavier Coates to take the win.
Betting: The Warriors are $1.43 favourites, with the Raiders paying $2.82. The Raiders have 6.5 points start in the line betting.
Stat attack: The Raiders finished Round 2 on the top of the ladder - the first time that has happened in any round since Round 6, 2005. It is difficult to take too much from the statistics at this stage of the season. But the Raiders' attacking and defensive numbers generally compare well with those of the Warriors. The Raiders have the best possession share and completion rate in the league. Must be a long time since that has happened too!
Jamal Fogarty is currently the top point scorer in the NRL - and he has the most kicking metres to boot. Morgan Smithies has the most decoy runs so far in the league. Joe Tapine ranks sixth. The Raiders are running decoys now? Overall, they are running 10th in that department on a per match basis.
Canberra has opposed teams that have included Shaun Johnson 18 times - and lost 10 of those games. Johnson field goals have delivered defeats for Canberra in three games in the past five years: last year’s golden point loss in Auckland, the golden point loss at Redcliffe in Round 8 of 2022, and the one point loss in Round 3 of 2018 at Canberra Stadium. In the 2018 loss, he kicked two last gasp field goals in the final minutes to win the game for the Warriors.
2024 Season record: Raiders 2 and 0 (1st, +36), 1 and 0 away
Warriors 0 and 2 (14th, -8), 0 and 1 at home
Attack: Raiders 30 points and 5 tries scored per match, ranked 2nd on average tries scored
Warriors 19 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked equal 8th on average tries scored
Defence: Raiders 12 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 2nd on average tries conceded
Warriors 23 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 10th on average tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 55 per cent, Warriors 53 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 90 per cent, Warriors 79 per cent
Running: Raiders 1744 running metres per match, ranked 7th
Warriors 1863 running metres per match, ranked 4th
Tackle breaks: Raiders 30, Warriors 32 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 5, Warriors 5 per match
Try assists: Raiders 4, Warriors 3 per match
Offloads: Raiders 9, Warriors 9 per match
Kicking: Raiders 698 kicking metres per match, ranked second
Warriors 502 kicking metres per match, ranked 16th
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1256, Warriors 1201 per match
Missed tackles: Raiders 26, Warriors 27 per match
Ineffective tackles: Raiders 17, Warriors 11 per match
Errors: Raiders 8, Warriors 9 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 7, Warriors 6 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 9, Warriors 8 per match
My tip: The Warriors are firm favourites and there are reasons for that. They won't be playing at their home stadium, but will still have the advantage of playing in front of a sell out crowd of New Zealanders. The Warriors very nearly toppled the Storm in Melbourne in Round 2. Canberra has a poor recent record against the Warriors and in New Zealand. Then there's Shaun Johnson. He's caused the Raiders a lot of pain over the years. But Canberra has been good in their first two games of the season. And I think the game plan used against the Knights has every prospect of working well against the Warriors. I'm not confident. But I'm going to say Raiders by six.
Canberra Raiders
1. Jordan Rapana
2. Nick Cotric
3. Matt Timoko
4. Albert Hopoate
5. Xavier Savage
6. Ethan Strange
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Danny Levi
10. Joe Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead (c)
13. Morgan Smithies
14. Tom Starling
15. Emre Guler
16. Zac Hosking
17. Pasami Saulo
18. James Schiller
19. Kaeo Weekes
Injury/Suspension
Sebastian Kris, Concussion (Round 4)
Corey Harawira-Naera, Seizure (TBA)
New Zealand Warriors
1. Taine Tuaupiki
2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
3. Rocco Berry
4. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
5. Marcelo Montoya
6. Luke Metcalf
7. Shaun Johnson
8. Addin Fonua-Blake
9. Wayde Egan
10. Mitchell Barnett
11. Jackson Ford
12. Kurt Capewell
13. Tohu Harris
14. Freddy Lussick
15. Tom Ale
16. Bunty Afoa
20. Jazz Tevaga
23. Chanel Harris-Tavita
22. Jacob Laban
Injury/Suspension
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Hamstring (Round 4-5)
Leka Halasima, Ankle (Round 6)
Marata Nuikore, Foot (TBC)
Demitric Sifakula, Knee (Mid Season)
Officials
Referee: Liam Kennedy
Touch judges: Chris Sutton, Paki Parkinson
Video referee: Matt Noyen
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLWarriorsRaiders
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