RE-VOTE: Strongest 2022 line up: Fullback

[greeneyed]

RE-VOTE: Strongest 2022 line up: Fullback



With the unfortunate season ending injury for Harley Snith-Shields, we’ve decided to re-vote for fullback, wingers and centres. That’s because of the feedback that the unavailability of Smith-Shields has changed the landscape for the back five. We will do the re-votes rapid fire over the next week. These polls will have precedence over the poll for the bench.

In the original poll, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad attracted 60 per cent of the votes, Xavier Savage 36 per cent of the votes and Albert Hopoate four per cent.

Click here to read more: Locks and contenders: Fullback

You have ONE vote in this poll. We will be allowing re-votes in the re-vote to help avoid ties.

[Beejay]

Fullback play.
My Opinion, but up for debate;
50% Defence. Organising the line, defending kicks, cover ect.
30% Kick returns, and/or early hitups in sets.
20% Attacking play through support or backline movement play.

Currently CNK is our best player for 80%. Savage is the better player for 20%
I think Savage spends the year on the Wing to prove his worth as a defensive player.

[greeneyed]

For me, this depends critically on whether Croker is right or not. I’m in two minds really.

One line up has Nicoll-Klokstad at fullback, Cotric and Rapana on the wings and Croker and Timoko in the centres. The other switches CNK into the centres in place of Croker, with Savage at fullback. Tough decision.

[Billy Walker]

Yep tough decisions GE. Do we want to celebrate club success and premierships or personal player milestones. I pondered it deeply for 0.00000000356 seconds and went with Savage at FB.

[Matt]

Savage is the correct choice.
However, like Ricky, I suspect this will be CNK again, and thus we will be back where we were a day or 2 ago before the re-vote

[Botman]

For me, this depends critically on whether Croker is right or not. I’m in two minds really.

One line up has Nicoll-Klokstad at fullback, Cotric and Rapana on the wings and Croker and Timoko in the centres. The other switches CNK into the centres in place of Croker, with Savage at fullback. Tough decision.

Its not that tough
It's a bit like paying my mortgage on time or maybe winning the lottery and then i dont have to worry about my mortgage?

[RedRaider]

Fullback is a key position. We have a 26 year old who has been to a GF with us in the position or a 19 year old without 3 completed FG games under his belt but who has shown some exceptional attacking skills. The 26 year old has spent the off season improving his pace with sprint training. The 19 year old has unfortunately been in rehab due to a shoulder injury. It is great to have choice in a key position. To start the new season and at this stage of their careers, I would go with CNK at FB.

[Billy Walker]

Fullback is a key position. We have a 26 year old who has been to a GF with us in the position or a 19 year old without 3 completed FG games under his belt but who has shown some exceptional attacking skills. The 26 year old has spent the off season improving his pace with sprint training. The 19 year old has unfortunately been in rehab due to a shoulder injury. It is great to have choice in a key position. To start the new season and at this stage of their careers, I would go with CNK at FB.

Fullback is a key position and it goes a long way towards winning premierships if you have some of the best players in the competition in your key positions. CNK is sound. He never hugely disappoints but he also isn’t anywhere near the top tier of number 1’s in the comp or likely to have enough improvement in his game to ever be on par with players like Latrell, Pongia, RTS, Paps etc. Yes Savage is raw and there is no guarantee he will rise to any heights. For me it’s a choice between a guy that is good but unlikely to ever be great and a guy that could be exceptional. You have to roll the dice and see what Savage has. If that fails, try Hoppa, find the next kid CNK is always a better than solid stop gap but he’s not taking us to premierships. Premiership teams are always choc full of stars with 1 or 2 solid players along for the ride. I feel we focus on bedding in the 1-2 solid players at the cost of unearthing the stars we desperately need.

[BadnMean]

Fullback is a key position. We have a 26 year old who has been to a GF with us in the position or a 19 year old without 3 completed FG games under his belt but who has shown some exceptional attacking skills. The 26 year old has spent the off season improving his pace with sprint training. The 19 year old has unfortunately been in rehab due to a shoulder injury. It is great to have choice in a key position. To start the new season and at this stage of their careers, I would go with CNK at FB.

You can't really coach speed though. You can fiddle around the margins with a % or 2 but you're either quick or you're not.

CNK also can't pass.

Great defensively but attack has primacy in the current rules.

Trying to grind your way to victory won't get you to the top 4 in the current league. It leaves other teams in the game too long, no easy wins and you end up dropping games here or there because you can't put teams away. Penrif got away with a mid range FB because they have the two hottest halves in the comp and a pacy talented backline. We don't have either of those.

Funnily enough CNK is the type of FB who just might win you a GF. But I just don't see how we get there with a blunt attack for the 25 other rounds, finishing 6-8th.

[RedRaider]

BnM, I reckon speed can be improved and that's why the club has invested in sprint coaching. I think passing is an area CNK has to work on but like other skills of the game it is not impossible to improve. CNK has already got us to a Grand Final in 2019 and to the match prior to the GF in 2020. Injury cruelled him in 2021. I am hopeful that Crawley can improve our attack as he did last time he was with us.

For me though the key is defence and fitness levels. How do we limit the opposition putting points on us and how do we last the full 80 minutes. Penrith were the best defensive team in the comp last season and they won. The record showed they scored the fewest points in a finals series yet they won the matches that mattered off the back of that effort. Not long to wait for Sticky to make the FB call.

[Billy Walker]

Ricky will go CNK as sure as night follows day but it’s not the correct or courageous call to make. I won’t be outraged that CNK gets the 1 jumper, he is a solid first grader. He just isn’t a superstar and has too many limitations in his game especially for a team that struggles in other positions.

[Roger Kenworthy]

Is anyone else suspicious that GE was part of Trump's campaign? This revote is giving me Capitol Hill flashbacks.

[Roger Kenworthy]

Fullback is a key position. We have a 26 year old who has been to a GF with us in the position or a 19 year old without 3 completed FG games under his belt but who has shown some exceptional attacking skills. The 26 year old has spent the off season improving his pace with sprint training. The 19 year old has unfortunately been in rehab due to a shoulder injury. It is great to have choice in a key position. To start the new season and at this stage of their careers, I would go with CNK at FB.

You can't really coach speed though. You can fiddle around the margins with a % or 2 but you're either quick or you're not.

CNK also can't pass.

Great defensively but attack has primacy in the current rules.

Trying to grind your way to victory won't get you to the top 4 in the current league. It leaves other teams in the game too long, no easy wins and you end up dropping games here or there because you can't put teams away. Penrif got away with a mid range FB because they have the two hottest halves in the comp and a pacy talented backline. We don't have either of those.

Funnily enough CNK is the type of FB who just might win you a GF. But I just don't see how we get there with a blunt attack for the 25 other rounds, finishing 6-8th.

Agree 100 with this. When a team gets V'Landys momentum and holds the ball for 3-4-5 minutes consecutively then you need to take your chance when you get it back. Cnk dieing with the ball on the 5th or failing to pull the trigger on a pass at the line is where this team will be made to pay.

By finals time we get back to something resembling rugby league which is when his value kicks in. Teams are allowed to defend again once the finals start.

[Choc Magic]

Personally, I'm for CNK wearing the #1 and rotating during the game with Savage. Rapa on the bench as utility/back.
With Rapa likely missing a few rounds to start the year (DUI) Kris takes his bench spot.

[BadnMean]

Agree 100 with this. When a team gets V'Landys momentum and holds the ball for 3-4-5 minutes consecutively then you need to take your chance when you get it back. Cnk dieing with the ball on the 5th or failing to pull the trigger on a pass at the line is where this team will be made to pay.

By finals time we get back to something resembling rugby league which is when his value kicks in. Teams are allowed to defend again once the finals start.

That's a good summation.

Melbourne blew us off the park with 4 tries in 15 minutes.

Penrif did similar to us.

"The grind" is useless in games like that. Vlandys ball gives you the opportunity to score, get the ball back, get some 6 agains and if you have the strikepower to just end a game in a brilliant attacking spell.

The finals do become low scoring again.

But Penrif averaged 28 pts a game during the regular season. They were the lowest scoring of the top 4 by some margin. That's still a lot of points per game. The other top 4 teams averaged 30+ points per game during regular season.

All the also rans averaged 20pts per game.

It makes it easier to defend when you have the ball and don't have to defend. When you score you get the ball back. When you get the ball back these days, it's often for 7-8-9 tackles instead of 6. Score more points. Get more ball. Defend less.

Do something with the ball and kill a team in 12 minutes.

Struggle to score and teams that CAN kill you in 10 minutes, well some games they will just do that and you can grind all you want but that game is gone.

[RedRaider]

BnM, Penrith only had about 12 points per match on average scored against them in the regular season matches. They kept up that defensive effort in the finals series with the exception of the first Qualifying final against Souths where they lost to the Bunnies who put 16 on them.

Some interesting Stats for the 2021 Season showing there was less time in play than in 2020 and in line with the 2019 level.
https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2021 ... is-season/

[greeneyed]

This poll will close tomorrow. We'll give each three days to run. We will do the wingers next.

[BadnMean]

BnM, Penrith only had about 12 points per match on average scored against them in the regular season matches. They kept up that defensive effort in the finals series with the exception of the first Qualifying final against Souths where they lost to the Bunnies who put 16 on them.

Some interesting Stats for the 2021 Season showing there was less time in play than in 2020 and in line with the 2019 level.
https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2021 ... is-season/

I'm not arguing Penrith weren't a great defensive team.

I went to some pains to try and link how also being a very dangerous attacking team is needed to finish top 4 and how being a very dangerous attacking team in Vlandysball, actually also helps your defensive game (you get to have the ball more). I'll just leave it at that.

[Billy Walker]

This poll will close tomorrow. We'll give each three days to run. We will do the wingers next.

Maybe we should offer to buy them dinner first

[greeneyed]

Poll declared for Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad.

[papabear]

Fullback play.
My Opinion, but up for debate;
50% Defence. Organising the line, defending kicks, cover ect.
30% Kick returns, and/or early hitups in sets.
20% Attacking play through support or backline movement play.

Currently CNK is our best player for 80%. Savage is the better player for 20%
I think Savage spends the year on the Wing to prove his worth as a defensive player.

I am not sure I agree with your weighting, but its not that simple for me.

Defence, I havent seen enough of savage but lets say he is average at say 60/100 or 30/50 and give CNK a strong 40/50

Kick Returns - I am not sure CNK is better here, savage is very dangerous in broken field, with a poor kick or poor defensive line I would take him every time. Give them both a 20/30.

Attacking play through support or backline movement - CNK is horrendous and Savage is an absolute talent. 5/20 for CNK 15/20 for savage.

TBH for me savage starts hands down the better for the side, we need energy....

[Botman]

Beejay's weighting there feels like it was posted by a guy who hasn't watched a second of footy in the last 2 years
I dont really have a problem with Savage playing on the wing in a vacuum, i still think that's probably going to be his best position but im very open to Savage showing and developing his ball playing skills at fullback which would make him one of the more dynamic fullbacks in the league... the problem is we don't make these decisions in a vacuum and if the fullback is not Savage, it'll be CNK, and with CNK at the back, short of the halves and other edge players excelling beyond expectations, we will continue to struggle to score points through structure, particularly in the red zone
We will again be heavily reliant on individual brilliance. Which is a very narrow path to walk down if the goal is a premiership. You have to be NAILS in every finals game and not leave a single chance on the field. You've basically got to convert near to 100% of your real try scoring chances through the 3-4 finals games to win a comp that way.

*Caveat: this might change if Mick Crawley can perform a miracle with CNK as a ball player.

[Beejay]

I posted it for the purposes of debate. It's not as black and white as that but it cuts to the chase.

I've watched plenty of footy, and i think our team attacking structure and execution is worse than CNK is an attacking player. He may be part of that, but it's bigger than him by far. He's not as bad as gets made out. CNK is not responsible for our grinding style.
I also rate defence way higher than the average fan, and on this forum. As much as new rule changes have made it easier for attacking play, people are over-compensating to drop defence down the priority list so far.
It's also important to send the message to the young star on the rise that he needs to prove he can perform to the same level in defence before he usurps CNK for such an important role. He can prove his worth on the wing.
I'm not against him taking over halfway through the year if he proves that.

[Wiki Special]

Regardless of what this Poll came up with and what my personal opinion may be - it is pretty obvious CNK will be selected at Fullback in Round 1 if available. I also think it is a high percentage that Savage starts the year in reserves, most likely playing Fullback there and being asked to learn the role. Hopefully that doesn't last long for the sake of us fans and his long term future at the Club.

[BadnMean]

I posted it for the purposes of debate. It's not as black and white as that but it cuts to the chase.

I've watched plenty of footy, and i think our team attacking structure and execution is worse than CNK is an attacking player. He may be part of that, but it's bigger than him by far. He's not as bad as gets made out. CNK is not responsible for our grinding style.
I also rate defence way higher than the average fan, and on this forum. As much as new rule changes have made it easier for attacking play, people are over-compensating to drop defence down the priority list so far.
It's also important to send the message to the young star on the rise that he needs to prove he can perform to the same level in defence before he usurps CNK for such an important role. He can prove his worth on the wing.
I'm not against him taking over halfway through the year if he proves that.

He really IS that bad in stopping an attack. He has 1 try assist in 8 games 2021. Caleb Aekins left him in the dust there. That tallies with the eye test amount of times he dies with the ball on a promising backline move. That tallies with grand totals of 3 try assists in 2020 and 2019 when he played full seasons. That is absolute bottom tier FB passing game, repeatedly, not an exception, with no improvement. And it gives other teams a clear and easy target to shut down any play- no need to worry about anyone outside, it won't get there.

He can step ok, but so can almost any outside back. He is not very quick so doesn't hurt teams with it very often- 2 line breaks in 2021. 8 and 7 line breaks respectively in 2020 and 2019, his full seasons. Again, bottom tier. Have a look how far down the list of full time FB's you need to go before you find one breaking the line at .33 per game or less. Tip- it's bottom 4 again, but those guys can pass. The best are above 1.0 per game. Middling runners like Hynes are 0.75. Most FBs have double his output there.

He makes strong carries and decent yards. That's it. But there is no way you can slice it to reveal even a middling attacking FB. He's poor at it. And with Cotric and Rapana on the wings, what value are more grunt carries from a blunt knife? Brave and great defensively as he is, he's just not an attacking threat at all considering the opportunities provided by the position.

[Shiv]

true - ish. We also did see what happens with a FB that couldn't defend - that same Caleb Aekins. overall he was a net loss- there is a reason why he isn't on our books anymore. ( I swear in some of those games it was almost like he was under instructions to let the ball bounce)

[Coastalraider]

I think the telling stat (which I don’t have access to) regarding V’landys ball defensive weighting would be sets defended.

To use Penrith as an example, compared to us, it’s easy to stay they are a defensive powerhouse become they let in less points. But I would love to see how many less sets on average they had to defend due to superior attack, hence more possession, and also at what part of the field… ie better attack, more meters, less defence in their own half.

[Botman]

I've watched plenty of footy, and i think our team attacking structure and execution is worse than CNK is an attacking player. He may be part of that, but it's bigger than him by far. He's not as bad as gets made out. CNK is not responsible for our grinding style.

I dont disagree with most of that... the part i do disagree with is that he is indeed that bad as a ball player. Its actually infuriating how bad he is in that regard, it's just a movement/ball stopper. Even on occasions where space was created with our poor structure, once the ball got into his hands the ball stopped. It's infuriating to see. He's probably the worst fullback in the game in this area (and one of the very best as far as defence, positioning and work rate goes, so im not discounting the things he's good at)

However you are right in saying the problem is most definitely multifaceted... we play extremely conservatively, we dont have great structure and we dont have the ball playing in the halves and fullback spot to be a quality attacking team out of structure

CNK is only a part of one facet of that problem. He's a big part of it though. You would hope Crawley can help fix the structure and influence the coach in expanding our style a bit. So i have some hope that 2 of those 3 problems are at least going to improve.
The one that cant is the ball playing. We simply do not have the skillset in the football team with the projected starters. I think Fog is at worst a lateral move from Williams as a ball player (and clearly a major downgrade in many other areas), but Wighton is not a good natural ball player, he has his moments for sure, but he's not good enough for us to consistently rely on that, and the easiest way to paper over that crack, is to have a fullback who can run a basic sweep play... CNK is totally incapable of doing that.
It maybe that Savage is too, but may be not. And ill take my chances on Savage who can offer up other attacking traits to help the team and lets see if he can ball play, over a guy i know can't.

[Shiv]

again, true-ish. Putting in Savage in FB over CNK is (at a macro level) favoring attacking over defending. As mentioned multiple times (and I agree), there were widespread problems all over the park with attack. I agree that if there continue to be widespread attacking problems across the park then having another key player who is also weak in attack is not a good outcome. But, all of that assumes Crawley has little to no impact (and given his only job is to improve attack, that seems harsh), Wighton has another bog average year, Jarod plays (and lets face it, poorly), Cotric is the same level as Valemi (or even worse), Fogerty is the same or worse than Sam etc, etc. In that scenario we are desperate for any attacking flair, and thus Savage looks the goods. I would postulate that if the attack is trash again, even if Savage plays FB and hits 2021 Turbo levels of skill, we are still not making the top 8.

You could make a counter argument that if the attack improves in every area except the FB position, then having a gun defender and line organizer there is actually a good outcome. I would also expect that if CNK is known by the coaching staff as a weak attacker/dies with the ball etc, then the new attacking coach would be focused on a plan to remedy it - even if the plan is stay the hell out of the attacking movement and only ever run as decoy.

I am more of a fan of putting Savage on the wing and see how he goes week after week in the big league.

[papabear]

This has been mentioned but it worth reiterating.

In attack, CNK brings the ball back fiercely and is a decent runner of the ball. With Cotric and Rapana back there now this skill isnt as needed.

As a back 3 the attacking balance of savage / cotric / rapana is really lethal.

However, a back 3 of CNK / Cotric / Rapana is too direct / slow lacking in variety.

Then looking at the whole backline again CNK in the centres with Savage at FB is just so much better then CNK at FB and savage maybe on the wing.

If Savage is hot garbage in defence / fielding high balls then fine put CNK back in there, but we have a relatively soft draw to start of I would prefer Savage in their getting his confidence up slicing up the sharks then watching the sharks in a grind fest with us, potentially having enough attacking flair to overcome us.

I really like CNK because of his defence, but at fullback he puts a hard cap on how many points we can score, and theres nothing to suggest that savage cant be an adequate defender and CNK can atleast shut one side down in defence as a centre.

[Finchy]

But, all of that assumes Crawley has little to no impact (and given his only job is to improve attack, that seems harsh), Wighton has another bog average year, Jarod plays (and lets face it, poorly), Cotric is the same level as Valemi (or even worse), Fogerty is the same or worse than Sam etc, etc. In that scenario we are desperate for any attacking flair, and thus Savage looks the goods. I would postulate that if the attack is trash again, even if Savage plays FB and hits 2021 Turbo levels of skill, we are still not making the top 8.

I think it's fanciful to speculate that Cotric could be at the same level or worse than Semi. Cotric is rep-quality, and rarely made an error. Semi is not a first grader who has feet for hands.

I would also suggest that whilst Fogarty may not be a gun, he's surely better than Sammy, who despite trying his little heart out, is also not a first grader.

I would also suggest that if Savage hits 2021 Turbo levels, we're making top 4, let alone top 8. Turbo literally carried that bog-average Manly team from last place to top 4 all on his own. Literally the most individually freakish season I've ever seen. Better than Johns, Barba, Hayne, whoever. Absolutely insane. Took out the Dally M by a country mile after playing only 15 games or something. Scored 5 hat-tricks. Absolute freak.

[RedRaider]

I think the telling stat (which I don’t have access to) regarding V’landys ball defensive weighting would be sets defended.

To use Penrith as an example, compared to us, it’s easy to stay they are a defensive powerhouse become they let in less points. But I would love to see how many less sets on average they had to defend due to superior attack, hence more possession, and also at what part of the field… ie better attack, more meters, less defence in their own half.

Coastal Raider, according to NRL stats the Panthers had 50% possession when averaged over all of their matches in 2021. The Raiders had 46%
https://www.nrl.com/stats/teams/?compet ... 021&stat=9

[Coastalraider]

I think the telling stat (which I don’t have access to) regarding V’landys ball defensive weighting would be sets defended.

To use Penrith as an example, compared to us, it’s easy to stay they are a defensive powerhouse become they let in less points. But I would love to see how many less sets on average they had to defend due to superior attack, hence more possession, and also at what part of the field… ie better attack, more meters, less defence in their own half.

Coastal Raider, according to NRL stats the Panthers had 50% possession when averaged over all of their matches in 2021. The Raiders had 46%
https://www.nrl.com/stats/teams/?compet ... 021&stat=9

Thanks red. On an average 620 tackles per game (rugbyleagueeyetest) that works out to around 30 more tackles, or 5-6 sets a match.

What would be really interesting is something like tackled in own half stats. From my personal eye test, we seem to spend an inordinate amount of time working the ball from our own end, then defending a set in our own half. High effort, high stress defence, with a mistake being of high consequence. From my own eyeball test again, the panthers seemed to be the team playing at the attacking end of the field, therefore defending teams like us coming out our own end. Very different defensive proposition, again based on superior attack, therefore better field position.

[greeneyed]

Reminded me of this...

Despite the conservatism, the Raiders were poor in terms of controlling possession. They finished in the bottom four teams in terms of possession share (48 per cent), completing sets at 78 per cent. Benchmark teams like the Storm, Rabbitohs and Panthers averaged possession shares of 53 per cent. The Raiders ranked sixth for errors and fourth for most penalties conceded. They were middle of the pack for set restarts conceded. In Vlandysball, possession is absolutely crucial, because of the momentum that delivers. The bottom line is, you rarely win without the ball.

Too often, the Raiders struggled to make metres with the ball in hand. They ranked 11th in the NRL in that department (1404 metres per game) and in kick return metres (91 per game). They were also mid table for kicking metres (524 metres per game) and forced line drop outs (one per game) - and 11th for total kicks (20 per game).

At times there were some vicious circles happening. The Raiders pack would struggle to make territory with the ball and get out of their own end. The kicks were often taken early and didn't compensate for the lack of running metres gained. If kicks were long, they didn't find grass or corners often enough. If the kicks were bombs, they didn't end on the goal line often enough. Kicks rarely put much pressure on the opposition. Turnovers of possession would see the vicious circle entrenched further. The Raiders won the battle for territory in only seven matches, and lost it in 13.

https://thegh.com.au/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p1830991

I did look at stats at the time for tackled in own half (that is represented by "territory" statistics in Fox Sports Lab). Aggregate numbers were not readily available and difficult to produce, especially to enable comparisons to other teams, but this is the data for the Raiders. The numbers average out at 49 per cent Raiders, 51 per cent opposition (presumably roughly)... but the pattern is generally very clear by game. You could work out tackles in the opposition red zone and in the Raiders own red zone as well, but I didn't do that one. The process is a bit resource intensive, as you have to calculate it from game by game stats.

Won territory

Rd 1 (56 per cent) - win over Tigers
Rd 2 (51 per cent) - win over Sharks
Rd 7 (52 per cent) - loss to Cowboys
Rd 14 (51 per cent) - win over Broncos
Rd 17 (59 per cent) - win over Sea Eagles
Rd 18 (55 per cent) - win over Sharks
Rd 24 (59 per cent) - win over Warriors

Lost territory

Rd 3 (49 per cent) - loss to Warriors
Rd 4 (48 per cent) - win over Titans
Rd 5 (47 per cent) - loss to Panthers
Rd 6 (48 per cent) - loss to Eels
Rd 8 (47 per cent) - loss to Rabbitohs
Rd 11 (44 per cent) - loss to Storm
Rd 12 (42 per cent) - loss to Roosters
Rd 15 (49 per cent) - loss to Dragons
Rd 16 (43 per cent) - loss to Titans
Rd 19 (44 per cent) - win over Eels
Rd 20 (47 per cent) - loss to Knights
Rd 22 (46 per cent) - loss to Storm
Rd 25 (42 per cent) - loss to Roosters

Even territory

Rd 9 - loss to Knights
Rd 10 - win over Bulldogs
Rd 21 - win over Dragons
Rd 23 - loss to Sea Eagles

[Coastalraider]

Yep, thanks ge, that’s pretty comprehensive, and paints the picture that while defence is still very important, defence from an attacking position is crucial. Backing your goal line defence set after set is a sure fire way to loose a lot of footy games.