Horse Racing

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-PJ-
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -PJ- »

My horse stunk it up..
3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment..Old Faithful
#emptythetank :shock:
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Northern Raider
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

yeh raiders wrote: November 3, 2020, 2:34 pm Heroic performance to make essentially 3 race moves and still win.

I had 2nd and 3rd, so slightly up.
They rode him properly today. He's a one paced stayer. They couldn't have a it a sit and sprint like last year. He got them off the bit early and it paid off.
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-TW-
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -TW- »

-PJ- wrote:My horse stunk it up..
The one that went to the PAL factory?

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -PJ- »

-TW- wrote: November 3, 2020, 9:55 pm
-PJ- wrote:My horse stunk it up..
The one that went to the PAL factory?

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Neh..

#7 Veery Elleegant.

Came in 7th/8th I reckon.

It deserves a ride to the PAL factory.
3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment..Old Faithful
#emptythetank :shock:
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Northern Raider
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

Verry Elleegant was one of the better runs in the race. Just got too far back.

Can't take anything away from the top 3. They were the stand out runs. No other hard luck stories.
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bonehead
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by bonehead »

Tips from the shadow on breakfast with Vossy tomorrow
Right you are - Melbourne
Acadia Queen - Melbourne
Desert Lord - Brisbane

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julian87
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by julian87 »

The forms not there this year. But I just can’t help have a go at True Self after how **** good it was a year ago. Double figure odds has me having a flutter to beat the odds on import.
well, I guess you could say that I'm buy curious.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -TW- »

**** sake

I had true self in my blackbook and took shared ambition instead

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julian87
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by julian87 »

Getting on Skyward in the next at Flemington. Arcadia Queen is a gun but I feel it’s grand final this prep was last week.

Skyward wasn’t great in the Geelong Cup but wasn’t far off Anthony Van Dyck 2 starts back in France and the Geelong Cup was probably it being underdone and a look to bigger things so a forgive imo. Not going big but worth a crack at over $20 odds imo.
well, I guess you could say that I'm buy curious.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by bonehead »

bonehead wrote:Tips from the shadow on breakfast with Vossy tomorrow
Right you are - Melbourne
Acadia Queen - Melbourne
Desert Lord - Brisbane

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2 wins and a third, might follow this fellow

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yeh raiders
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

julian87 wrote: November 7, 2020, 4:33 pm Getting on Skyward in the next at Flemington. Arcadia Queen is a gun but I feel it’s grand final this prep was last week.

Skyward wasn’t great in the Geelong Cup but wasn’t far off Anthony Van Dyck 2 starts back in France and the Geelong Cup was probably it being underdone and a look to bigger things so a forgive imo. Not going big but worth a crack at over $20 odds imo.
If you go back a few pages, I took Skyward this time last year for this years Melbourne cup, so I’ve been following him for a little while.

He had stomach ulcers in Europe in the lead up to coming here. I thought his Geelong Cup run was a flop and really hoped they would spell him after that. He only raced that day because he hadn’t yet qualified for the Cup. Not sure why they went back to 2000m for a genuine stayer, I can only assume they wanted a cheeky crack at stealing a Group 1.

Surely now he’s spelled, because they’ll be wanting to have another go at the Melbourne Cup next year and he really needs to mature.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

bonehead wrote: November 7, 2020, 5:01 pm
bonehead wrote:Tips from the shadow on breakfast with Vossy tomorrow
Right you are - Melbourne
Acadia Queen - Melbourne
Desert Lord - Brisbane

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2 wins and a third, might follow this fellow
Somebody told me he only tips $2.00 favourites.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by bonehead »

Northern Raider wrote:
bonehead wrote: November 7, 2020, 5:01 pm
bonehead wrote:Tips from the shadow on breakfast with Vossy tomorrow
Right you are - Melbourne
Acadia Queen - Melbourne
Desert Lord - Brisbane

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2 wins and a third, might follow this fellow
Somebody told me he only tips $2.00 favourites.
good if they pay

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julian87
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by julian87 »

Backing Long Arm to beat Tralee Rose in the Adelaide Cup this arv. Rose the deserved fav but taking the $8 or $9 on offer for the import.
well, I guess you could say that I'm buy curious.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by bonehead »

julian87 wrote:Backing Long Arm to beat Tralee Rose in the Adelaide Cup this arv. Rose the deserved fav but taking the $8 or $9 on offer for the import.
big run

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yeh raiders
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

Thoughts for the Golden Slipper?

Wet track likely, I can see Four Moves Ahead being a pretty good e/w bet.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

2021 Melbourne Cup Preview:

The low number of international visitors combined with limited quality among local horses means the 2021 versions of the Melbourne Cup is the lightest on depth I've seen. I feel there are only a few genuine winning chances and a few that could get a place at decent odds. Forecast if for a warm and sunny day in Melbourne so expect the track to be reasonably firm by the time they jump. Here's my take on each runner.

1 – TWILIGHT PAYMENT 58kg, Joseph O’Brien, Jye McNeil, Barrier: 2
Last year's winner and in a weaker field you have to say he's a chance of going back to back despite history being against him. Coming off a very similar prep to last year and ticking the boxes. The 58kg will make it hard though so won't be putting him in the top selections. Worth a saver bet still.

2 – INCENTIVISE 57kg, Peter G Moody, Brett Prebble, Barrier: 16
The new star of the turf. Came through lower grades during the Queensland Winter Carnival and won his races by a huge margin. Started his spring with some tough wins at WFA over shorter trips. Caulfield Cup win was incredible after being caught wide early on pace. Despite the tough run he blew them away by 3.5L. Seems to get better the further they go, indicating the 3200m is well within his scope. Short priced favourite and deservedly so. Very hard to beat.

3 – SPANISH MISSION 57kg, Andrew Balding, Craig Williams, Barrier: 14
He's the class runner from the few internationals taking place. Hasn't won a Group 1 although he has excellent form at the at level in UK. Last start beaten a head by the world’s best stayer in Stradivarius at York over the Cup distance. Somewhat unfairly weighted (as usual for visitors). Also has an injury issue last week, which is not ideal. The damage was superficial being an infection where he took some skin off. That shouldn't affect his chances although it's likely the reason for his betting drift. He's the major threat to the favourite an $9 is nice value.

4 – VERRY ELLEEGANT 57kg, Chris Waller, James McDonald, Barrier: 19
Been the best horse in the country for a couple of seasons now. Decent effort in the cup last year to run on from the back of the field. Lighter prep this year with Cox Plate being her focus (solid 3rd). Rising to 57kg and I feel she's slightly below her best form this year. Firm track won't suit either. Based on all that I can't see her winning. Respect and chance for minor placings.

5 – EXPLOSIVE JACK 54kg, Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, John Allen, Barrier: 4
Star 3yo winning Tassie, SA and Australian Derbies then 3rd in QLD Derby. Form since returning has been very poor and last start beaten 15L in the Caulfield Cup. Had a very long prep as a 3yo and likely needed more time off before returning. Putting a line through his chances.

6 – THE CHOSEN ONE 54kg, Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman, Damian Lane, Barrier: 5
4th in the Cup last year and form was solid through the current campaign. That ended in the Caulfield Cup where he put in a shocker. If you can forgive that run he looks well over the odds at 50-1. I can't overlook it so letting him go in this.

7 – DELPHI 53.5kg, Anthony and Sam Freedman, Damien Oliver, Barrier: 3
Very similar to The Chosen One where his form was good up till Caulfield Cup failure. Both finished 1st and 2nd in the Herbert Power so that form line is not looking good. Should get an easier run here which might see him finish closer. Not enough to be a winning chance.

8 – OCEAN BILLY 53.5kg, Chris Waller, Damien Thornton, Barrier: 13
Won the Auckland Cup over 3200m in March so distance isn't a concern. Class is the big question. Expect him to be grinding out a top 10 finish (He's $3.00 in that market).

9 – SELINO 53.5kg, Chris Waller, Ron Stewart, Barrier: 24
Sydney Cup winner at big odds. Spring form only fair. Got well back and stayed well back in the Caulfield Cup. Hard to see him threatening.

10 – JOHNNY GET ANGRY 53kg, Denis Pagan, Lachlan King, Barrier: 22
Victoria Derby winner last year and had a long break since. Returned for Spring and not even got warm. Nearly 20L back in the Geelong Cup. Needs form turnaround of the century to be in the mix here.

11 – KNIGHTS ORDER 53kg, Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, Daniel Stackhouse, Barrier: 9
Won the Brisbane Cup but well beaten at all his starts in the Spring. Latest was nearly 6L behind the winner in the Hotham on Saturday. Potential pacemaker in this race and will get wind burn in the home straight as others run past him.

12 – PERSAN 53kg, Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, Luke Currie, Barrier: 11
5th in the Cup last year and no beaten far. Combine that with his recent 3rd in Caulfield Cup puts him well ahead of most in this. Not sure he can reverse the Caulfield result but not a bad each way chance at $26.00 currently. Include in the multiples and a good pick for those who like place betting.

13 – CARIF 52.5kg, Peter and Paul Snowden, Blaike McDougall, Barrier: 8
Runs the 3200m no issue with a win in Sandown Cup last year and 2nd in Brisbane Cup. Those field were well below the quality of this one and his current Spring form is ordinary. Pass.

14 – MASTER OF WINE 52.5kg, Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes, Fred Kersley, Barrier: 6
Had a lot of raps on him early in his career but failed to live up to them. His 3rd in the Bart Cummings two starts back was full of merit. Last start in Caulfield Cup was ordinary. Not won for 2 years and won't be changing that here.

15 – PONDUS 52.5kg, Robert Hickmott, Rachel King, Barrier: 1
Imported horse having his 2nd prep in Australia. His pair of 2nds at the Curragh this year made him look like worthy contender. Set a (too) fast pace in the Bart Cummings and battled on well for 5th. 4th as short priced favourite in Moonee Valley Cup was a little disappointing although I don't think the muddling early pace suited him. Gets the light weight here and in a leap of faith you could argue he's hitting peak fitness. Maybe an each way spec bet.

16 – GRAND PROMENADE 52kg, Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, Kerrin McEvoy, Barrier: 21
Won the Bart Cummings in a tough effort. Will be a month between runs coming into this. Progressing through grades nicely and has yet to run a bad race at Flemington. He's not without a chance although the barrier will be challenging.

17 – MIAMI BOUND 52kg, Danny O’Brien, Patrick Moloney, Barrier: 17
Well beaten in the Cup last year coming off much better form. Hard to see her making any improvement here and realistically is only making up the numbers.

18 – PORT GUILLAUME 52kg, Ben and JD Hayes, Harry Coffey, Barrier: 23
Imported horse had good form in France last year. Now trained locally his form this Spring has been very ordinary. Jockey's job here is to not get in anybody's way.

19 – SHE’S IDEEL 52kg, Bjorn Baker, Craig Newitt, Barrier: 20
Solid form in the Autumn without winning. First up in the Spring was an excellent 3rd and 2 stats later won the Kingston Town at Randwick. Came from back and wide in the Metropolitan to run home OK, beaten 3L. Caulfield Cup made steady ground from the back to finish 6L off the winner. That margin looks too much to make up given she gets another 1.5kg off him here. Could run into the minor placings.

20 – FUTURE SCORE 51.5kg, Matt Cumani, Dean Yendall, Barrier: 15
Biggest claim to fame is winning Cranbourne Cup last year. Form this spring is poor in the 2nd tier lead up races. The fact that he even managed to make the field typifies the lack of depth this year.

21 – TRALEE ROSE 51kg, Symon Wilde, Dean Holland, Barrier: 12
Good staying form beginning of the year with wins at Flemington and Morphetville before 4th in the Adelaide Cup as odd on fav. May have been one run too many that prep. Form in Spring is has been very solid. Placing in several 2nd tier lead up races at Caulfield and Flemington before winning the Geelong Cup. Is on the ideal trajectory to peak on Cup day. Genuine light weight chance.

22 - FLOATING ARTIST 50kg, Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, Teo Nugent, Barrier: 10
Imported horse now locally trained. Form is good coming through the grades. Culminated in a somewhat unlucky 2nd in the Moonee Valley Cup. Would probably miss out on a run in any other year but they managed to sneak in. Reckon he'll run a cheeky race with the light weight. Is he good enough to win I'm not so sure. Each way shot.

23 – GREAT HOUSE 50kg, Chris Waller, Teo Nugent, Michael Dee, Barrier: 7
Racing consistently well this Spring. Won the Newcastle Cup then stepped up to Group 1 level with a solid 5th in the Metropolitan beaten less than 2L. Even effort in the Caulfield Cup where kept battling away for 5th (5.5L behind winner). Back in grade on Saturday with a tough win in the Hotham. Have to respect his consistent form but like other Caulfield Cup runners it's hard to see him turning tables on the winner.

24 – SIR LUCAN 50kg, Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, Glen Boss, Barrier: 18
The most intriguing horse in the field. Northern Hemisphere 3yo who have shown in recent years to be well placed in the Cup. Been racing well in some good 3yo races in UK then stepped up to Group 1 level last start and couldn't go with them when the pressure came on. Well beaten 8th of 10. In a relatively weak year he has a decent profile. Not convinced about him being a genuine 3200m horse. Backing him is really rolling the dice. Right odds if you want to do that.

Final Selections:
1. Incentivise
2. Spanish Mission
3. Tralee Rose
4. Floating Artist

Note: From a betting perspective I feel Spanish Mission presents much better value than Incentivise.
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-TW-
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -TW- »

I've got Tralee Rose for the win, was the only one that stood out with reasonable form at longer distance, plus light weight. Been burnt on the favourite a fair few times

Went for a boxed first 4:

1. Twilight Payment
2. Incentivise
7. Delphi
21. Tralee Rose

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yeh raiders
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

Thanks NR, always much appreciated.

I got Tralee Rose early at $56/$14 so I’ll be looking for 3 others to bet on.

Would love to see Incentivise get out to $3, I’ll bite if he does.

Twilight Payment and Spanish Mission on my mind too.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by julian87 »

Very much agree with your preview NR. It's been the weakest spring carnival for stayers in recent history for mine. I'm struggling to get my head around so many battlers making the field. I imagine covid restrictions are what kept so many imports away. Funnily enough though the imports that have had a bit of a prep (Delphi and co) don't strike much of a chord.

I too like Spanish Mission. I think it will be crunched late. After backing the young and lightly run thing that won the Cox Plate I think I'm going to follow suit and roll the dice on Sir Lucan. Absolutely no confidence at all but if it's high 20s or 30s tomorrow I'll have a crack there I think.
well, I guess you could say that I'm buy curious.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

yeh raiders wrote: November 1, 2021, 6:16 pm Thanks NR, always much appreciated.

I got Tralee Rose early at $56/$14 so I’ll be looking for 3 others to bet on.

Would love to see Incentivise get out to $3, I’ll bite if he does.

Twilight Payment and Spanish Mission on my mind too.
Got some nice odds there on Tralee Rose.

Incentivise is around $2.80 at the moment so can get $3.10 boosted price. Might get even better on Best Tote considering the volume of casual punter's money in the pool who don't like the short odds.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

julian87 wrote: November 1, 2021, 6:26 pm Very much agree with your preview NR. It's been the weakest spring carnival for stayers in recent history for mine. I'm struggling to get my head around so many battlers making the field. I imagine covid restrictions are what kept so many imports away. Funnily enough though the imports that have had a bit of a prep (Delphi and co) don't strike much of a chord.

I too like Spanish Mission. I think it will be crunched late. After backing the young and lightly run thing that won the Cox Plate I think I'm going to follow suit and roll the dice on Sir Lucan. Absolutely no confidence at all but if it's high 20s or 30s tomorrow I'll have a crack there I think.
Sir Lucan I really can't get a line on. Agree he's worth a small punt at the odds he's likely to get to.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Dusty »

I’ll be backing
Incentivise
Twilight Payment
Grand Promenade


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2020: 1. Nicol-Klokstad 2. Cotric 3. Croker (c) 4 Leilua 5. Scott 6. Wighton 7. G. Williams 8. Papalii 9. Hodgson (c) 10. Sutton 11. J. Bateman 12. Whitehead 13. Tapine ----
14. Simmonson 15. Soliola 16. Guler 17. Horsburgh
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Off »

Thanks NR, astute as always.

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This place is woke.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

Bugger. I was all over Verry Elleegant last year. Dropped off this time. Had the next 3 in order. :(

Should add, best 3 horses in the race came 1,2,3.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

Super impressive from VE.

Incentivise, big wrap to him. Didn’t have much luck in the run and still closed off so well. Hope he’s back next year.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Dusty »

My mates and I purchased a small share in a 2 year old filly yesterday. Our first taste at horse ownership. Exciting


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2020: 1. Nicol-Klokstad 2. Cotric 3. Croker (c) 4 Leilua 5. Scott 6. Wighton 7. G. Williams 8. Papalii 9. Hodgson (c) 10. Sutton 11. J. Bateman 12. Whitehead 13. Tapine ----
14. Simmonson 15. Soliola 16. Guler 17. Horsburgh
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by RTW »

Dusty wrote:My mates and I purchased a small share in a 2 year old filly yesterday. Our first taste at horse ownership. Exciting


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Nice work, what stables will she be based out of?


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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Dusty »

Unnamed yet. Ible Racing @ Kembla Grange


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2020: 1. Nicol-Klokstad 2. Cotric 3. Croker (c) 4 Leilua 5. Scott 6. Wighton 7. G. Williams 8. Papalii 9. Hodgson (c) 10. Sutton 11. J. Bateman 12. Whitehead 13. Tapine ----
14. Simmonson 15. Soliola 16. Guler 17. Horsburgh
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

That's funny, a couple of mates and myself have recently done the same. First time ownership.

'The Crimson Tide' - a 2YO colt by The Autumn Sun, with Annabel Neasham. He is out of a Japanese 'Daiwa Major' mare and has some of his looks.

The updates we're getting are decent so far, but we'll know more in the next few months.

Annabel's team are excellent though, can't speak highly enough of them. They keep you very well informed and you get regular video and audio updates, that keep you engaged and excited. I'm looking forward to meeting him when we next get an invite to the stables.
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-TW-
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by -TW- »

Same for our punters club, we bought a 2.5% share between the 10 of us.

So far it's been a bit of a dud, but hasn't had any runs on anything other than a swamp

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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

It’s just so accessible to anyone these days. Not just for the upper echelon of wealth anymore. And the amount of prize money available, particularly in NSW, makes it all the more appealing.
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Dusty »

yeh raiders wrote:That's funny, a couple of mates and myself have recently done the same. First time ownership.

'The Crimson Tide' - a 2YO colt by The Autumn Sun, with Annabel Neasham. He is out of a Japanese 'Daiwa Major' mare and has some of his looks.

The updates we're getting are decent so far, but we'll know more in the next few months.

Annabel's team are excellent though, can't speak highly enough of them. They keep you very well informed and you get regular video and audio updates, that keep you engaged and excited. I'm looking forward to meeting him when we next get an invite to the stables.
Nice one!
Annabelle Neasham is impressive from all accounts.


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2020: 1. Nicol-Klokstad 2. Cotric 3. Croker (c) 4 Leilua 5. Scott 6. Wighton 7. G. Williams 8. Papalii 9. Hodgson (c) 10. Sutton 11. J. Bateman 12. Whitehead 13. Tapine ----
14. Simmonson 15. Soliola 16. Guler 17. Horsburgh
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by Northern Raider »

All the best with the ownership experience guys. Main thing is to enjoy the good times and accept the bad ones. You will likely get a healthy dose of both. Keeping expectations low is the easiest way to do that. You should be well conditioned for it as a Raiders fan. 😀
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Re: Horse Racing

Post by yeh raiders »

Haha exactly. I was told “it’s all gambling money, don’t think of it as an investment”.

Are you still owning a few NR?
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