Coronavirus

[gangrenous]

I don’t think you’re listening to what I’m saying.

[Dr Zaius]

I don’t think you’re listening to what I’m saying.

Maybe you're not being clear

[Dr Zaius]

Agree with Gangers. What you say makes sense Doc, but you’re forgetting something vital. People are ****** and can’t be trusted to self-govern when rules are loose. Especially if one area is locked down and somewhere 40 mins away are right to carry on.

I feel this lockdown isn’t going to work because a handful of clowns are going to think either
A. Oh these rules won’t apply to me. Ducking out for a quick minute won’t hurt
B. Why should people in Penrith be allowed out while we’re stuck here? Screw this, you can’t tell me what to do, I’m out
C. Oh snap, better get out of Dodge before I’m stuck here.

As with the Batemans Bay example, it’s proof of that. It’s putting too much faith in people to do the right thing, and the rules are loose. They did the right thing by refusing her entry and allowing the JB friends in, but the dots weren’t connected to realise they were staying in the same place, even when she called them out on it.
I feel you need to remove the ambiguity

The Bateman's Bay example makes no sense. She wasn't from a hotspot. She had every right to go there. You're example of people mingling doesn't change with restrictions. People from Brisbane were mingling with people from Melbourne in Byron.

A small minority of people are absolutely always going to do the wrong thing. That needs to be factored in and addressed. Every set of restrictions still carry a degree of risk, that level of risk needs to be balanced against the harms associated with greater restrictions.

I'd argue that if the majority of people in the Northern Beaches do the right thing, the risk of it spreading (assuming that it hasn't already) and seeding further significant outbreaks, despite a number of people doing the wrong thing, is quite low.

The better approach would be looking at ways to minimise dishonest people getting out and about, and venues making wrong decisions. People have to show ID and sign in at the Soldiers Club. It's not hard to keep a list of banned postcodes at the front desk. Perhaps a single QR app to sign in with, which knows your postcode of residence, and which venues you have visited, and can flash red if you have been to or reside in a hotspot?

[FuiFui BradBrad]

The Bateman's Bay example makes no sense. She wasn't from a hotspot. She had every right to go there.

Sorry for clarity, her trip was a few months back when all of Sydney was a hot spot. Not a recent trip

I'd argue that if the majority of people in the Northern Beaches do the right thing, the risk of it spreading (assuming that it hasn't already) and seeding further significant outbreaks, despite a number of people doing the wrong thing, is quite low.

That is a decent argument to make, and I hope it’s the case. But I keep thinking about how every outbreak that has happened has been due to a number of people doing the wrong thing.

The better approach would be looking at ways to minimise dishonest people getting out and about, and venues making wrong decisions. People have to show ID and sign in at the Soldiers Club. It's not hard to keep a list of banned postcodes at the front desk. Perhaps a single QR app to sign in with, which knows your postcode of residence, and which venues you have visited, and can flash red if you have been to or reside in a hotspot?

Then you’re relying on staff at the Soldiers Club to constantly cross-check postcodes against the banned list. Plus where do you draw the line with Postcodes? I don’t know Northern Beaches, so I’ll stick West. If the line was drawn at Parramatta, what’s the difference between Parra and Westmead / Wentworthville / Pendle Hill? You’re not going to have a ring of steel at Parra, and Joe Bloggs security in Dubbo RSL isn’t going to know the difference.

QR Code could be possible, but there’d be a reliance on it to get updated at pace if there’s any changes

[Dr Zaius]

The Bateman's Bay example makes no sense. She wasn't from a hotspot. She had every right to go there.

Sorry for clarity, her trip was a few months back when all of Sydney was a hot spot. Not a recent trip

Oh OK, that makes more sense

[gangrenous]

I don’t think you’re listening to what I’m saying.

Maybe you're not being clear

Probably true

[greeneyed]

WA closes border to NSW, Sydney to Hobart yacht race cancelled for first time in 76 years due to Tasmanian border closure to greater Sydney. Looks like those contagious have been well beyond the northern beaches of NSW: https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavir ... e4b360b22b

[The Nickman]

State lockdowns are **** stupid. Here in Rocky we haven’t had a case in probably five months, if a cluster were to happen on the Gold Coast then we shouldn’t have restrictions placed on us and businesses closed, it’s absolutely ludicrous!

Our only restriction in that instance should be that we can’t go to the Gold Coast... and vice versa

[-PJ-]

2 peeps from Sydney who are Chinavirus positive visited Maccas Raymond Terrace and Foster shopping centre..

We are all going to die..

[The Nickman]

Chinavirus, PJ? Really?

[-PJ-]

That’s what the Trumpster calls it.

Is there a problem ?

[-TW-]

It's racist for one

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[-PJ-]

Well I’m not racist so I’ll apologise to all Chinese people.

Sorry.

[greeneyed]

NSW reports 30 new COVID-19 cases, with 28 linked to Avalon outbreak, new restrictions for Sydney: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-20/ ... k/13001550

[Northern Raider]

Well I’m not racist so I’ll apologise to all Chinese people.

Sorry.

Better not mention Spanish Flu either.

[Dr Zaius]

What do we know about the Northern Beaches outbreak?

- The strain of the virus is not one that has been seen previously in Australia, and is currently circulating in the US. This appears to be a quarantine breech.
- Sewerage testing on the Northern Beaches was negative for SARS-Cov-2 on the 10th of December, giving some level of confidence that this is a recent outbreak
- The genomic sequencing is similar to that of the virus detected in a quarantined returned traveller from the US, who arrived in Australia on December 1st
- There have been two major super spreader events – the Avalon RSL on the 11th of December and the Avalon Bowlo on the 13th of December
- People attended those events reside outside of the Northern Beaches, and have since tested positive after visiting venues in their home area
- So far, the large majority of positive cases have either been directly linked to these two events or to close contacts of people that attended those events
- Of the small minority of cases where there is not a clear link to the two events, the cases have resided in the Northern Suburbs
- There has been no community transmission as yet detected outside of the Northern Beaches
- There is not yet an established chain of transmission from an international arrival to the first super spreader event.


In the 24 hours up to 8pm last night, there were 30 new local cases. 28 of them had clear links to the super spreader events. The remaining two are residents of the Northern Beaches and are under investigation. There were 28,210 Covid tests performed in NSW in that 24 hour period – a phenomenal effort.

The Northern Beaches last night went into Stage 3 lockdown until Wednesday evening. Restrictions have been increased across the Greater Sydney region, Central Coast and Blue Mountains. This includes indoor venues winding back from one person per 2 square metres, to one person per 4 square metres, bans on singing and dancing and a cap of 10 people in private residences. People have been requested to wear masks in public indoors, on public transport and in any situation where they cannot social distance, but it has not been mandated.

Victoria, Queensland, Northern Territory and ACT have all mandated that people travelling from the Northern Beaches quarantine for 14 days. Tasmania has extended that to Greater Sydney. All but the ACT require completion of border passes. Western Australia has imposed a hard border on the state of NSW.

NSW Health have been in discussion with airline companies to arrange that their crew are formally quarantined upon arrival. By all accounts, international crew entering Australia in any state or territory are allowed to self isolate. It appears that the airlines are not happy at the prospect of crew being placed in quarantine hotels, and coming to an agreement has proved challenging.

To all those living in, or who have relatives that live in the Northern Beaches, I’m sending my best wishes and my thoughts are with you. Its been a difficult year, and no doubt everyone has been looking forward to catching up with family and friends, or just getting away. This must be incredibly frustrating and disappointing.

Edit - update
- Victoria have announced that they will close to Greater Sydney and the Central Coast from tonight

[Dusty]

Don’t call Chinese food ‘Chinese’ food either.


Sent from my iPhone using The Greenhouse

[Dr Zaius]

That’s what the Trumpster calls it.

Is there a problem ?

Given all of our recent outbreaks have links to the US, maybe it should be called the American Virus?

[Azza]

This sucks.

Took my dog for a walk at collaroy this morning - was very subdued compared to normal.

I just pray this gets under control quickly, and the borders can re-open soon. I had a trip interstate planned for mid April and not sure how things will look then.

[FuiFui BradBrad]

Yeah I’m hoping this gets under control. I’m annoyed, my uncle’s funeral is this Wed, and it’s looking unlikely I’ll be able to make the trip down

[Azza]

Quite apart from this - I hope this results in other states picking up more of the slack when it comes to international arrivals, and I hope they figure out how the leak occurred from quarantine on this occasion so it doesn't happen again.

[gangrenous]

Reading between the lines it sounds like they suspect international flight crews of not self-isolating and going about in Sydney. Might be hard for them to know for certain as those responsible might be somewhere else in the world now.

[Dr Zaius]

Quite apart from this - I hope this results in other states picking up more of the slack when it comes to international arrivals, and I hope they figure out how the leak occurred from quarantine on this occasion so it doesn't happen again.

Absolutely. NSW must sick of the crap its copping from the other states despite being the only state doing its share of quarantining.

Reading between the lines it sounds like they suspect international flight crews of not self-isolating and going about in Sydney. Might be hard for them to know for certain as those responsible might be somewhere else in the world now.

Are QANTAS flying at all? A lot of speculation that lots of people that work for airlines live in the Northern Beaches area

[Azza]

That's anecdotal though - not confirmed. I.e. - yes there have been breaches, but whether they caused infections in the community is not clear. In fact one of the South American flight crews that breached self isolation requirements all tested negative.

Might I add this is the worry. We don't know how it got into the community, so it's hard to know all the sources of transmission since patient zero and moreover, how to stop it happening again.

[greeneyed]

All Qantas international flights are currently suspended, apart from some limited flights to and from New Zealand. There are reports that some international flight crews have not been quarantining as they should... which has led to the new rules: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... quarantine

[Dr Zaius]

That's anecdotal though - not confirmed. I.e. - yes there have been breaches, but whether they caused infections in the community is not clear. In fact one of the South American flight crews that breached self isolation requirements all tested negative.

Might I add this is the worry. We don't know how it got into the community, so it's hard to know all the sources of transmission since patient zero and moreover, how to stop it happening again.

Quarantine is fraught with danger. This virus is so easily transmissible. That's four significant breeches (that we know of) - Melbourne, Adelaide and two in Sydney. Its madness to continue this in densely populated areas.

[gangrenous]

That’s the thing isn’t it? At what point do you go it’s worth the states pitching in X million each or whatever to build/upgrade offshore processing? Given how much is lost in quarantine breaches in our capital cities.

I guess at this point it’s too late, you’re just trying to hang in there long enough to get one or more of the vaccines into circulation. But if the vaccines are unable to suitably control COVID, or we were to have another pandemic, surely that’s got to be the way to go.

[Dr Zaius]

That’s the thing isn’t it? At what point do you go it’s worth the states pitching in X million each or whatever to build/upgrade offshore processing? Given how much is lost in quarantine breaches in our capital cities.

I guess at this point it’s too late, you’re just trying to hang in there long enough to get one or more of the vaccines into circulation. But if the vaccines are unable to suitably control COVID, or we were to have another pandemic, surely that’s got to be the way to go.

The problem with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is that we don't know if it stops transmission of the virus. That wasn't one of the outcome measures. To know that, they would have had to test every participant regularly. They didn't. Its primary end point is whether it stops Covid disease - ie did they become symptomatic.

The Oxford vaccine has published, and they did look at transmission rates. Best I can see from the data, its efficacy in stopping transmission is 50%,with an efficacy for Covid disease around 70% from memory (compared to 94% for Pfizer and Moderna). Their study had some issues though, which is why I think that they haven't yet sought Emergency Use approval.

[Dr Zaius]

SA, Victoria and Queensland extended hotspot to include Greater Sydney area, Central Coast and Wollongong

[Azza]

That's anecdotal though - not confirmed. I.e. - yes there have been breaches, but whether they caused infections in the community is not clear. In fact one of the South American flight crews that breached self isolation requirements all tested negative.

Might I add this is the worry. We don't know how it got into the community, so it's hard to know all the sources of transmission since patient zero and moreover, how to stop it happening again.

Quarantine is fraught with danger. This virus is so easily transmissible. That's four significant breeches (that we know of) - Melbourne, Adelaide and two in Sydney. Its madness to continue this in densely populated areas.

Three in Sydney aye mate, if you include the current outbreak. There were ominous warning signs in recent weeks with the cleaner from hotel quarantine and the bus driver at the airport. We got off lucky on both of those occasions. And even if infection occurred to the community in those cases, a consolation would have been patient zero would have been clear to us.

Given how dangerous the virus is and how easily transmissible (and by all accounts, it's getting even more so with mutations such as in the UK), it does seem that bringing potential positives into major CBDs for quarantine is asking for trouble.

[RedRaider]

Dr Z, sorry mate, I have another question. I know little about the Pandemic vaccine process when it begins in Australia. Will each person who lines up to have the vaccine be Covid tested? The reason I ask is that it would provide an early opportunity for contact tracing to begin should people test positive. Apologies if you have been over this before.

[Dr Zaius]

That's anecdotal though - not confirmed. I.e. - yes there have been breaches, but whether they caused infections in the community is not clear. In fact one of the South American flight crews that breached self isolation requirements all tested negative.

Might I add this is the worry. We don't know how it got into the community, so it's hard to know all the sources of transmission since patient zero and moreover, how to stop it happening again.

Quarantine is fraught with danger. This virus is so easily transmissible. That's four significant breeches (that we know of) - Melbourne, Adelaide and two in Sydney. Its madness to continue this in densely populated areas.

Three in Sydney aye mate, if you include the current outbreak. There were ominous warning signs in recent weeks with the cleaner from hotel quarantine and the bus driver at the airport. We got off lucky on both of those occasions. And even if infection occurred to the community in those cases, a consolation would have been patient zero would have been clear to us.

Given how dangerous the virus is and how easily transmissible (and by all accounts, it's getting even more so with mutations such as in the UK), it does seem that bringing potential positives into major CBDs for quarantine is asking for trouble.

True, I forgot about the bus driver.

Build a custom quarantine facility with an airstrip and hospital.

In the meantime move it out to rural towns with airstrips, and a decent hospital. Community buy in will be better. It will be easier to contain leaks.

[Azza]

That's anecdotal though - not confirmed. I.e. - yes there have been breaches, but whether they caused infections in the community is not clear. In fact one of the South American flight crews that breached self isolation requirements all tested negative.

Might I add this is the worry. We don't know how it got into the community, so it's hard to know all the sources of transmission since patient zero and moreover, how to stop it happening again.

Quarantine is fraught with danger. This virus is so easily transmissible. That's four significant breeches (that we know of) - Melbourne, Adelaide and two in Sydney. Its madness to continue this in densely populated areas.

Three in Sydney aye mate, if you include the current outbreak. There were ominous warning signs in recent weeks with the cleaner from hotel quarantine and the bus driver at the airport. We got off lucky on both of those occasions. And even if infection occurred to the community in those cases, a consolation would have been patient zero would have been clear to us.

Given how dangerous the virus is and how easily transmissible (and by all accounts, it's getting even more so with mutations such as in the UK), it does seem that bringing potential positives into major CBDs for quarantine is asking for trouble.

True, I forgot about the bus driver.

Build a custom quarantine facility with an airstrip and hospital.

In the meantime move it out to rural towns with airstrips, and a decent hospital. Community buy in will be better. It will be easier to contain leaks.

Failing that, WA.

But in all seriousness, I agree. What are we supposed to do if the vaccine isn't entirely successful in limiting transmissibility - live with these sorts of episodes every few months, and a country with borders permanently closed internally and externally? It would be farcical - it's not a sustainable position.

[Dr Zaius]

ACT have announced that people from Wollongong, Sydney, Central Coast and Blue Mountains must quarantine.

[Azza]

ACT have announced that people from Wollongong, Sydney, Central Coast and Blue Mountains must quarantine.

Never thought they'd refuse anyone out Tuggeranong way.