Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Thanks to the guys at thegh.com.au for allowing us to post Steve Green's Raiders thoughts this season. Here's a small preview of the season and we'll be following this up with his game previews each week of the season. Thanks in advance for reading, look forward to the comments!

Heavyweights preview

Coach Stuart has copped a bit of flack for his team changes since going down in the Grand Final. Aidan Sezer getting moved on was criticised due to the form the plucky halfback showed at the end of 2019. He’s already dominating the Super League in 2020. This was made worse by the fact that his UK replacement, George Williams, was given barely any game time by Coach Bennett on the Lions tour of Australia at the end of 2019.

Then following Joey Leilua’s departure, we saw Curtis Scott get arrested and his immediate future is now under a cloud. A lot of people questioned why Stuart had decided to let go of the rampaging Leilua after such a strong season (a season where he finally managed to cut down his errors and penalties).

Finally, crowd favourtie Rapana was lost to Japanese Rugby, without any replacement being signed. Simmonson is ready to start on the wing and has looked good every time he’s pulled on a green jersey, but it does take away some depth out wide.

From what I’ve seen of George Williams, he’s the real deal and capable of making an impact the way Hodgson did at the 9 position. I’m also a big fan of Curtis Scott’s potential… pending his police charges being resolved, he’ll be a great replacement for Leilua.

Besides that, the Raiders should generally improve across the board. Wighton, Tapine, Papalli, Hodgson, Bateman and CNK are at the top of their game with age on their side.

Their easy start to the season makes it tempting to back them but again, the $7.00 is just not long enough for me in such an even competition.

It might take a while for their new combinations to gel so I think their price could drift if they drop a few games early. There then might be a good opportunity to take the Raiders at $10 or better to win the competition.

Read more: https://www.championbets.com.au/sports- ... vyweights/
7 great seasons of profitable NRL Tips and Previews by big Raiders fan Steve Green.
https://www.championbets.com.au/about/steve-green
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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This Steve Green fella comes across as a good bloke...
3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment..Old Faithful
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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-PJ- wrote: March 6, 2020, 3:53 pm This Steve Green fella comes across as a good bloke...
He is... he's been a member of the site at one stage at least.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Raiders 1.3
Titans 3.65
Prices steady for now
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Might have an each way bet on the Raiders.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Northern Raider wrote: March 11, 2020, 3:29 pm Might have an each way bet on the Raiders.
They sure are short.....
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Is this the new betting thread?

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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$647 p.a?
Jesus thats steep
Im just, bicking back being bool
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Steve's predicted ladder

One of the most difficult things in the NRL is predicting the ladder at the beginning of the season. You will always be embarrassed as to how things turn out, but the key to making sure you are a winning punter is by ensuring your bets have a positive Expected Value. If I pick a team to come 3rd who then come 9th I don’t mind, provided I didn’t bet on them to make the Top 4 etc.

But anyway… here is where I think the teams will end up on the regular season ladder:


16. Warriors
I don’t think the Warriors have done enough with their roster in the off-season. Letting Lisone go, right as they encountered a shortage of front rowers due to the injury to Afoa, was silly. I’m not sure what Kearney’s plan is for 2020. He’s made some strange decisions at the helm and while it looked like there was a method to his madness in 2018, he seems to be too willing to let players leave rather than work with them and improve them.

15. Bulldogs
The Doggies are the other cellar dweller that I think will be part of an evening in the competition. While their roster is nothing to write home about, it has improved under Pay. DWZ and Hopoate are pure class while Meaney, Okunbor, R Smith and Lewis are all underrated contributors. And despite having a pretty boring attacking style, their defensive desperation was second to none and they really give 100% every game.

Despite conceding more metres than any other team in 2019, they were ranked equal fifth in line breaks conceded. That indicates a team that does anything to stop their opponents breaking their line. If they can improve their attack off the back of new signings like Stimson and Britt, they’ll be a hard team to beat.

14. Titans
I don’t expect the Titans to come last in 2020, which is a controversial opinion due to how poor they were last year. I think a lot of what went wrong with the Titans last year came down to their coach, the issues around Ash Taylor and a lack of defensive grit. They topped the league in missed tackles and line breaks conceded.

But it was a totally different team in their trial against the Broncos. While I don’t read too much into trial matches, the Broncos named a strong team and despite a good start couldn’t deal with the physicality of the Titans. Arrow, Wallace and Fotuaika will form the bedrock of the Titans forward pack. Despite being poor in recent years, I’m expecting Proctor to have a solid year now that he’s been handed the captaincy and is playing for a new contract. Lisone is a good pick up from the Warriors and Shannon Boyd is the forgotten man of the NRL after having an injury plagued year in 2019. In shape, the big man was playing for Australia not that long ago, so this Titans pack has a ton of potential.

13. Panthers
While I think Cleary will improve without Maloney in 2020, I worry about the patchy form of guys like Mansour, Edwards and Luai. Despite having so much young talent at their disposal, Cleary has made some strange team selections. Guys like Burton and Aekins should be picked in my view, but they seemed to have gotten passed over in 2020 despite their form warranting selection. Tyrone May could be the surprise pack they need, he looked tremendous before being embroiled in the sex tape controversy that derailed their 2019 season. Plenty of upside if they get things right.

12. Knights
With Ponga and Pearce in great form, the Knights will always be hard to beat on their day – especially at home in front of their passionate and loyal fans. Brailey will help fill the void at 9 and they have plenty of competition for spots out wide. If Lino can make the 6 jersey his own and the Knight forwards stay fit, then they could surprise to the upside… but they fizzled out last year and I have some doubts about their solidarity as a club in the wake of Brown’s departure in 2019.

11. Sharks
My main concern for the Sharks is the lack of professionalism in the front office and the lack of experience in their coaching ranks. Sometimes it looks like their senior players are running the show and although their roster is strong, guys like Fifita, Dugan and Josh Morris have all shown glimpses of not wanting to be there in recent years. Townsend is a bit hit-and-miss, as is Johnson and Moylan. On their day, they can beat anyone… but I can also see them capitulating often in 2020. With Shark Park out of action in 2020, I think their temporary home in Kogarah will also diminish their home ground advantage.

10. Dragons
I think the Dragons will really improve this year. Despite their second-half capitulation against Souths in the Charity Shield, their pre-season form has been solid. I put this down to coaching changes over the off-season. Shane Flanagan appears to have added some grit to the Dragons and with the likes of young Jason Saab, Mikaele Ravalawa, Adam Clune, Ben Hunt, Josh Kerr, Jackson Ford, Tyrell Fuimaono,Tristan Sailor, Brayden Wiliame and Cody Ramsey, the Dragons have a much deeper squad in 202. If the likes of Aitken and Lafai don’t lift their game, then they have plenty of talent ready to step up.

9. Cowboys
The Cowboys have recruited some gun outside backs, and with McLean, McGuire and Taumalolo in the forwards I think they will be very hard to beat up north. I am a little concerned by their forward depth and also what they’ll do at 9.. Robson is promising but hasn’t shown he can handle the rigours of the NRL at the Dragons, while Granville has been poor in recent years.

8. Manly
I have Manly rounding out the final eight. This is a big call and I might be embarrassed by the Sea Eagles, but I worry about a lack of depth and the risk of injury to their stars. Tom T has already shown he’s prone and now Jake T is going to be out for the first few matches alongside Fonua-Blake. That could mean they start slow and when Origin hits, they will be without their three big guns in DCE and the Trbojevic brothers.

7. Wests
While all the focus has been on the recruitment of the Leilua brothers and Doueihi, I think the likes of Garner, Chee Kam, Twal, Nofoaluma and Reynolds are the key to Wests surprising this year. Brooks was sensational last year and Benji keeps delivering. I rate Coach McGuire highly, so I expect a fit and well drilled Wests outfit to finally play finals in 2020.

6. Broncos
A lot will come down to how Coach Siebold manages this team. With Arhtus and Boyd likely to start out wide in Round 1, I have my concerns over his team selection already. Farmworth and Coates is the combo I would go with and I expect them to be given a shot very soon. Lodge’s injury is also a big setback, but Fifita and Haas along with the highly underrated Carrigan and Flegler will be hard to contain all year long. Expecting a big season from Bird at the back and Milford at 6.

5. Raiders
While I have the Raiders falling back a little, I do think they will be genuine contenders in 2020. G Williams looks great and he will prove the doubters wrong, while Scott is not the awful replacement that the media is making out for Joey. Despite being destructive on his day, Leilua’s failure to pass to Rapana in the Grand Final cost the Raiders the premiership and Ricky Stuart does not tolerate selfishness.

4. Souths
An all-star back line and Damien Cook will see the Souths attack go to the next level. Coach Bennett always has great defence but has struggled to find points in recent years. That should change in 2020. Although the forward pack is not full of superstars, they have some underrated guys (Knight, Tatola, Sironen) that will surprise a lot of people.

3. Storm
Bellamy has been very clever with his recruitment policy. Brenko Lee is a first-grade quality player that will put pressure on the halves, while Hynes looked a star in Queensland Cup and will also provide options out wide. The Storm will look to Tino Fa’asuamaleaui to bolster their forward stocks, and with Big Nelson, Welch and J Bromwich to learn from, he’ll have a break-out season. Harry Grant, if he stays, will play a role off the bench and Jacks returning to Melbourne provides depth around Origin time.

2. Eels
With guys like Mahoney and D Brown a year older and wiser, I think the Eels will be even better in 2019. Their forwards have been strengthened with the recruitment of Matterson and RCG, plus they have a few young guys that provide plenty of depth. Moses has turned into one of the competition’s true superstars, while guys like Nathan Brown are massively underrated. Sivo, Ferguson and Gutherson and one of the best back 3 combos in the game.

1. Roosters
Still the benchmark in defence and although they’ll miss Cronk, Flanagan is the perfect replacement. His goal kicking will cover the loss of Latrell and based on the last few seasons’ form, the Roosters deserve to be favourites in 2020

Despite these predicted rankings not being too far off the markets, I don’t think there will be too many easy beats in 2020. When a top-rated team has an off day I think we’ll see an upset. I”m keen to capitalise both at the head-to-head and the line.

Read more: https://www.championbets.com.au/sports- ... n-preview/
7 great seasons of profitable NRL Tips and Previews by big Raiders fan Steve Green.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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gergreg wrote: March 11, 2020, 3:41 pm Is this the new betting thread?

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It's more the "Steve Green" thread, plenty of betting stuff
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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manbearpig wrote: March 11, 2020, 3:49 pm $647 p.a?
Jesus thats steep
:hmmm ....Steve has a super record.
Regardless, we'll post his Raiders previews all season, hopefully you get something out of them.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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2020 Round 1: Raiders v Titans

The Raiders head into this one without John Bateman, and considering they have also lost Sezer, Leilua and Rapana from last year’s grand final side, it will feel like a different team on Friday night.

While I think the Raiders still have a very strong team and will be hard to beat at home, there are three things that worry me:

1. Bateman is very important to this Raiders team and they clearly missed him when he was injured last year. His aggression and enthusiasm is infectious, and I think this could be an underrated absence in coming weeks for the Raiders.

2. The Raiders didn’t have the best record at home and against poor teams last year. They seemed to lift for the big games, but have been caught napping against the weaker teams. The Titans looked like a different team last week. If Brimson and Fotuaika do play, then they have the team to ambush the Raiders here.

3. There could be a bit of a come down from last season’s heartbreaking Grand Final loss. The Raiders looked very flat in their only one trial match this year, so I am not sure they will start this season full of beans and they could be a work in progress.

If the Titans are without Brimson, then I am interested to see what Sami can do at 1. He has always been a player with enormous potential, but seemed to come in and out of games. At full back against the Broncos, he looked great and I think that is his long term position. This would mean that Brimson can move into the halves or play from 14 – and I am a big fan of having a gun player as a super-sub that can come on when the defence is tiring, it is an underrated strategy.

New coach Holbrook has given the Titans a licence to thrill and with guys like Peachey and Cartwright, I think this could be the secret to breaking the Raiders rock solid defence.

The Wooden Spooner to cover against the Grand Finalist is a bold move, but I think the Titans will offer some value at the line in these early rounds.

Predicted Score
Raiders 18
Titans 14
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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2020 Round 2: Warriors v Raiders

Despite this game being listed as a home game for the Warriors, it has been moved to the Gold Coast. Considering the lack of any crowd, it is effectively a neutral venue and as we saw last night, I don’t think the Bulldogs enjoyed any home ground advantage without the fans there.

Considering they have effectively been prevented from returning home to NZ (if they did, they would have to self-isolate and therefore forfeit their next two games at least), this is not a bad looking team.

Hiku, who has returned to NZ to be there for birth of his child, has been replaced by Keighran. Although the young playmaker is a half, he played a lot of lower grade footy in the centres and has the speed to cover this role. I rate him as a smart footballer and this is something the Warriors need plenty more of.

Egan gets another start at 9, which is the right move – as they need to give the kid a chance to prove his worth. But I am concerned about the the Warriors forward pack in the middle of the field. They continue to field some players that are lacking NRL experience (such as Eliesa Katoa, Jamayne Taunoa-Brown and King Vuniyayawa).

While the Raiders had a few of these guys last year (Horsburgh and Guler for example), these guys have a whole NRL season and a grand final under their belt! Both these guys were massive against the Titans in Round 1 and they will again provide support to he big guns like Whitehead, Papalli and Tapine.

Hodgson, Williams and Wighton all clicked in Round 1, with the new English halfback showing why Coach Stuart went so hard to get his signature.

The bookies have shown a lot of respect to the Raiders and put up a line of -12.5 for the Green Machine

I thought the Raiders win last week was probably the best performance of Round 1. They dominated from start to finish, overcame an injury to their fullback and looked strong across the field.

I am going to back the Raiders at -12.5. The Raiders scrambling defence looked good again last weekend, while the Warriors attack was woeful – with them failing to score a single point.

Without crowds, defensive intensity has been an issue in Round 2 so far, with 50 points scored on average last night and 40 points being scored in the Bulldogs v Cowboys game, which was set to be heavily dominated by defence.

If this game opens up, then I think the Raiders are more likely to blow it open off the back of Wighton, Williams and Klokstad find plenty of opportunities out wide.

Predicted Score
Raiders 30
Warriors 12
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Hi guys, great to be back, Steve's comments for tonight below..

2020 Round 3: Storm V Raiders

Match of the round in my opinion! A replay of the epic semi final that saw the Raiders pull off an amazing win via a try to John Bateman. But the Englishman isn’t playing in this match due to injury, and neither is the guy tht threw him the famous flick pass – Joey Leilua.

As for their opponents, the Raiders barely missed a beat in their opening 2 rounds. George Williams proved me right and showed he is a genuine talent and capable of taking the NRL by storm in 2020. Scott is warming into his role out wide and although Simmonson is a late withdrawal for the Raiders, the inclusion of Rapana onto the bench and Oldfield into the starting team, means that is not a loss for the Raiders.

The Storm’s squad however, is ridiculously strong! They have a starting 13 chock full of internationals and young superstars. And to show how hard it is to crack that team, their bench comprises of QLD rep Cameron Welsch, NZ Rep Brandon Smith and upcoming superstar that signed a massive deal with the Titans, Big Tino.

Up front they welcome back Big Nelson, who along with the Bromwich brother, Kaufusi and Finucane, form an awesome starting pack. And the Captain needs no introduction.

However, the Raiders have showed that they don’t fear Melbourne and at the end of 2019, they came to Melbourne and took away the 2 points on both occasions. With Hodgson, Papalli, Whitehead, Nicoll-Klokstad and Cotric, the Raiders have player that can harm the Storm across the park.

I am a little concerned by the weakness of the Raiders opponents in those opening 2 rounds. They played the two worst teams by far (Titans and Warriors). Whenever this happens, there is always a risk that the team’s form is being exaggerated by the weakness of their opponents.

For example, Nick Cotric made a staggering 25 tackle breaks in his opening 2 matches. The Warriors and Titans could not handle his power…but I would be surprised to see Cotric amass more than a couple of tackle breaks against the Storm’s fast-moving defence.

The reason I have stayed out of this one, despite leaning towards taking the Storm at the minus, is because I don’t know how these two teams are going to handle the new ruck speed. Both were terrific wrestling defensive outfits in 2019, but if they try to do that tonight, they will find themselves down to 12 players in no time.

I think the Storm will win this by about a try, but not enough value for me to have a bet.

Predicted Score
Storm 24
Raiders 18
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Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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2030 Round 4: Raiders V Knights

The Raiders are in fine form so far this year and I understand why the bookies have put up a line of 8 here. George Williams has been a revelation so far in 2020 and Curtis Scott looks to have settled in really well. A lot of people were critical of Coach Stuart in letting go of Sezer and J Leilua during the off season, but I think the Raiders squad has been strengthen further and they are deserved co-favourites for the competition.

But I think the Knights form has been underrated by the market and the impact of Ponga is being downplayed.

The Knights started the season with a strong performance at the 9s. They then backed it up with strong wins in Round 1 and 2. And then last Round they managed to etch out a draw against a physical Panthers team, after missing two of their best players for 70 minutes of the match.

This weekend, with Pearce and Ponga back in the halves, Bradman Best showing what he can do out wide and an underrated forward pack missing the in-form Saifiti brothers and Klemmer, there is a lot to like about this team. But fundamentally the Knights have changed their ways due to the impact coach Adam O’Brien has had since arriving.

The 2020 Knights have far better defence than they have had in previous years, after conceding less than 13 points a game so far this year. While the Raiders defence is even better at 6 points conceded a game, the scene is set for a tough defensive battle and in that kind of match, I am always happy to be taking the team with the +8.5.

With the game being played at Campbelltown, this is a neutral venue. If it was being played in Canberra, then I presume the line would be 4-6 points bigger – so the bookies would have had it -12.5 to Canberra?? That is far too large between two unbeaten teams.

The Raiders have proven a very hard team to beat in recent times and although I think the head to head is tempting on the Knights, I think that there are other markets where we can diversify some of our risk, but still capitalise on the fact that the bookies are underrating the Knights.

While 2020 was being defined as the year of the blow out score line by those that like deriving conclusions from 11 games, as we have seen in a few of the tighter matches this year – when there are two teams with strong defence, there is not much difference to recent seasons.

Predicted Score
Raiders 19
Knights 18
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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2020 Round 5 - Tigers V Raiders

Both of these teams would have copped an absolute blast from their coaches after what they dished up last week. While Wests losing to the Titans was the one that grabbed the headlines, the Raiders capitulation to the Knights was equally unimpressive.

While Wests have rung in the changes, with guys like Reynolds, Taulau, Musgrove and Packer being brought into the 17, the Raiders tried to stick with the same line up. Unfortunately, Horsborough has been ruled out with injury, which is a big loss to the Green Machine. He has been one of the Raiders best this year, and last week he was one of the few players that could hold his head up, after making 129 metres and 58 tackles.

With the Raiders still missing Bateman and Young not back from his lengthy suspension, the Raiders pack are down on troops and in particular, they are lacking aggression. And while Wests have lots of areas they need to improve on, they do lead the NRL in tackle breaks and the Raiders defence will have to be far more aggressive if they want to hold off a Wests team that I think will start this game with plenty of energy.

Look for Joey Leilua to try and make a mark against his old team, while Reynolds will also be looking to play good footy and after a false positive drug test, put another stressful week behind him.

While the Raiders will look to get their defence firing again, I am worried that the new 6 again rule interpretation is hurting them. The Raiders wrestled their way to the Grand Final last year, with a never day die attitude that saw them assert themselves as the new Storm.

But last week the Knights made over 2000 metres against them and with key forwards out and Wests featuring some very good outside backs that know how to make metres from dummy half, they could be in for a tough match here.

Obviously the Raiders deserve to be favourite, but I think the +8.0 being offered by most bookies and +8.5 at 1.85 is good value in a match that I think could go down to the wire.

Predicted Score
Raiders 19
Wests 18
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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2020 Round 6 - Raiders V Sea Eagles

The Raiders had a tough encounter with Wests last weekend. Wests came to play and led for a big chunk of the match, but the class of Wighton, CNK and Hodgson was enough to get the Green Machine home. Considering how well Wests played last night against the Cowboys, I think it is safe to say that was an impressive win against Wests.

The Raiders have only conceded 10 tries in 2020. 6 of those tries came against the Knights in Round 4, meaning the other 4 tries came in the other 4 games (or 1 try and a game). Manly are not far behind, having conceded 11 tries in their 5 matches. So, I am expecting this to a low scoring affair.

The money has come for the Raiders and I think that is fair enough based on the player movements in recent weeks. Manly have lost Taupau and Suli for this game, after losing Taufua the week before. That is three quality players missing, in addition to the long-term loss of their star hooker Fainu in the pre-season due to ongoing policy charges. So this is a much weaker Manly side than what we factored in for Manly during the pre-season…yet because they still have DCE and Trbojevic brothers, I am not sure the market has properly priced that in.

As for the Raiders, they welcome back Hudson Young from his 2019 suspension. After missing the Grand Final and having plenty of time to think about what kind of player he wants to become, the powerful back rower will be a valuable inclusion off the bench.

This means that the only player missing for the Raiders is John Bateman. While he is a big out, this is a quality Raiders team that has only lose 1 game so far this year.

The line here is 4 and think it is a little bit small. With Neds, Ladbrokes and Bookmaker offering 2.00 lines here, you can afford to have 1 Unit on a marginal play and still have a positive Expected Value on the play.

I also think that Cotric’s 2020 form hasn’t gotten the attention it deserves. He has been close to unstoppable one on one and like his changes to scoring against a Manly backline that is missing a few regulars.

And while I would typically take the under here, referee Grant Atkinson has shown a desire to allow the attacking team to really get a roll on, so I am taking a break from totals under I can properly factor in the ‘six again’ rule change.

Predicted Score
Raiders 19
Manly 12
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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2020 Round 8: Raiders V Dragons

The Raiders head into this one after back to back losses, and following word that John Bateman will leave the club at the end of 2020. That is not a great week for the Green Machine, and Coach Stuart has realised changes must be made.

Scott is the obvious player to be dropped. His indecision in defence is now being targeted and he doesn’t do much in attack either. With Rapana and Simonson battling it out for a wing spot, and Cotric able to play centre (along with Oldfield having a history of always stepping up), Scott will have to battle his way back into the starting team.

But Scott is not the main problem with the Raiders – across the park they are well down on their 2020 numbers. In their last 4 matches, the Raiders have scored only 62 points (which is the 4th worst attack in the NRL during that period).

The Raiders two leading try scorers are Whitehead and Wighton, on 4 each. In contrast, the Raiders outside backs are struggling to cross the line (Scott on 1 try, Croker on 0 tries, Rapana on 1 try and Simonsson on 1 try). This indicate the backline movements of the Raiders are not working as they should.

Defensively, the Raiders have fallen back to the pack in 2020. Last year their scrambling defence was second to none, but the new rules have made it difficult for the Raiders to slow down their opponents and get their defence set. If they don’t find a way to lift their energy in defence and get their backline moves running at pace, the Raiders will struggle to replicate their 2019 success.

As for the Dragons, they backed up their back to back wins with a solid performance against the Roosters. Although the Dragons went down by 14 points in the end, they were leading shortly after half time and have clearly turned a corner since Dufty has come back into the fullback spot. Dufty’s rating so far in 2020 has him in the top 10 players in the competition on current form, further highlighting how ridiculous it was to leave him out for those games.

McInnes continues to impressive week after week, while Frizzell is repaying Dragons fans with some solid form after announcing his departure to the Knights. With Hunt playing with confidence again, Lomax slowly showing the enormous potential he has and Ravalawa continuing to find his way to the try line, the Dragons are not the easy beats every had them pinned for a month ago.

In fact, it has been a miraculous recovery and although getting on the road is a big test, I think the head start being offered here is a bit too big.

Predicted Score
Raiders 20
Dragons 16
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Line now -10 at Sportsbet/Bet365...heading towards -10.5
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Early prices for Round 9:

Raiders 1.80
Storm 2.00
Line is -1.5
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2020 Round 9: Raiders V Storm

Happy we got on early here, with the money coming pouring in for the away team. It was quite strange the Raiders were put favourites against a Storm team that had just beaten the Roosters. But the main reason I took the Storm is the lack of forwards depth from the Raiders.

Earlier in the year, seemingly in a bid to free up salary cap space to retain Bateman, the Raiders let go of a string of fringe forwards (Murchie to Warriors, Hunt to Sharks, Luke Bateman retired and JJ Collins released). At the time it seemed to make sense, with a shortened season not requiring as deep a squad in recent years. But since then the Raiders have lost Horsborough, Guler and Soliola, joining Bateman who has his return pushed back due to an infection following shoulder surgery.

That is 4 middle forwards missing from the Raiders line up, adding to the 4 forwards they let go…As a result, Kai O’Donnell gets his debut for the Raiders.

And while the Raiders starting pack is still pretty strong with internationals like Tapine, Whitehead and Papali, they lack depth and size here. Against a forward pack featuring Nelson, Tino, Bromwich brothers, Finucane, Brandon Smith and Kaufusi, the Storm have a clear edge.

That is not to mention the return of Munster, who has surprised many by being named on the bench this weekend. While he is a not a definite starter, his inclusion would mean the Storm are pretty much full strength (they are missing Vunivalu).

As I said a few times lately when backing against the Raiders, they are not the same team we saw in 2020. They lack the depth in the forwards and Scott has not been the success Stuart had planned (he has now been dropped from the 17 entirely). Hodgson is getting targeted in the middle and I am sure the Storm will be running traffic at the little English star all night long.

While the Storm have been a bit clunky in 2020, their win against the Roosters showed what they are capable of. Their bone rattling defence and resilience was hard not to admire and with a forward pack boasting multiple NSW, QLD and NZ representatives, I cannot see how the Raiders will be able to match the Storm in the middle.

Predicted Score
Storm 22
Raiders 18
Last edited by ChampionBets on July 10, 2020, 10:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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A pretty big betting move...
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Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Early prices from Sportsbet on Thursday night's game:
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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2020 Round 10: Roosters V Raiders

As you would expect from the turbulent 2020, this Grand Final rematch has been heavily disrupted by a string of key injuries hitting both clubs.

The Roosters were able to shake off their injury toll by crushing a hopeless Cowboys last weekend, whereas the Raiders went down to the Storm while losing Simmonson and Hodgson (both internationals) for the season.

The Raiders forward pack is now missing some serious talent (Soliola, Guler, Hodgson, Horsborough and Bateman). As the beginning of the year, the real weakness I identified with the Raiders was a lack of depth. While they have a few options out wide, they do not really have any forwards busting down the door for a game of NRL. With no lower grades, there is a real concern about how match fit any of the Raiders extended squad will be.

This weekend they have managed to cobble together a team, and it is not too bad. While Hodgson is a great player, as I have highlighted in recent weeks, he is not without flaws. His defence can be a problem, and some of his decision-making in 2020 has been poor. Compared to Cam Smith, you can see how much more dangerous the Melbourne great has been in 2020 over their first 9 games:

• Hodgson: Try Assists 3, Line Break Assists 2, Missed Tackles 35
• Smith: Try Assists 7, Line Break Assists 7, Missed Tackles 17

However, the Roosters also have some issues at 9. Verrills is out for the year, but Friend was also a late withdrawal last weekend. While Lachlan Lam did a great job standing in against the Cowboys, this will be a step up in class and we will not know if Friend is lining up until closer to kick off. I think he will play and I am planning accordingly.

As for the rest of the Roosters line up, they welcome back Cordner and with Brett Morris lining up, the Roosters team looks a lot stronger. The Roosters have guys like Tupouniua, Aubusson and Collins on the bench, whereas the Raiders will have Starling playing his first game of the year, Semi Valemei making his NRL debut from the bench and Kai O’Donnell playing only his second game of the year, after a solid 20 minute stint against the Storm last weekend.

While the Roosters have looked a little wobbly of late, they clicked back into gear in the second half against the Cowboys and showed that whenever they have Keary and Tedesco on the field, they can sore points from anywhere – and take the game away from their opponents in the blink of an eye. They specialise on taking advantage of a team’s weak link and with the Raiders fielding a fair few fringe players in this match up, I think the Roosters will run away with it in the end.

Predicted Score
Roosters 28
Raiders 12
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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2020 Round 11: Raiders V Rabbitohs

Souths are missing a ton of talent for this match and considering the Raiders outplayed the competition favourites last weekend and are back at home, I thought they would have been bigger favourites for this one.

Souths are currently without Latrell Mitchell, Liam Knight, James Roberts, Ethan Lowe, Tom Amone and Braidon Burns. Therefore, they are missing three State of Origin players in the form of Lowe, Mitchell and Roberts, as well as some much needed forwards depth. As a result, Souths have been forced to give Jack Jones and Keaon Koloamatangi a go on the bench, despite the pair of them having a combined 18 minutes of NRL experience between them.

Sele has looked good and Nicholls also played well last weekend, but I think the Souths pack will be up against it against this depleted Raiders forward pack, which last weekend showed they still have a lot to give in 2020. Guys like Lui, Havili and O’Donnell stepped up and matched the star-studded Roosters forward pack, while Starling was a revelation.

But the reason I have backed the Raiders here is the form of their halves. Wighton and Williams are about as good as any halves pairing in the NRL right now…while Walker and Reynolds have not really clicked in 2020. Reynolds and Walker have scored five tries between them and set up 11 tries. Whereas Williams and Wighton have scored six tries between them and set up 13 tries.

When you look at their comparative running games, the difference is even more stark with the Raiders halves pairing have 47 tackle breaks and nearly 1300 running metres between them….with the Souths pairing having 37 tackle breaks and 680 running metres between them (noting Walker has played only eight games this year, whereas the other halves have played all 10).

If Wighton and Williams can continue to kick well, then I think the class of guys like Papalli, CKN, Tapine and Whitehead will be too much for this Souths line up, who rely too heavily on Cook, Murray and T Burgess in the forwards.

The home crowd and the cold weather is also a factor here which I think warrant the Raiders being bigger favourites.

Predicted score
Raiders 24
Rabbitohs 12
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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I think it’s a real danger game for the Raiders and understand them not being larger favourites. I think they’re still a team that’s had a tough season with a lot of travel and injuries and they were asked to dig deep for the win last week. That may come at the expense of this week I fear.

On the flip side perhaps the belief and confidence from having been successful last week will be enough to refill the tank. Guess we’ll see.
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Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Early prices from Sportsbet on Saturday's game:

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Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Updated prices from Sportsbet for tomorrow's game, Raiders with a bit of support in the betting so far.

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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2020 Round 12: Raiders V Cowboys

The Raiders grinded out another tough win last weekend, with a 18-12 win against a depleted Souths outfit providing further injury concerns. This time the Raiders are without their star fullback, meaning the Raiders are now without a big contingent of their Grand Final team from last year.

While they welcome back Bateman and new signing Harawira-Naera, I do have some concerns about the fitness of both of these guys due to their long time out of the game. Getting back into the NRL up in Townsville is tough going, so after a tough month of footy against teams like the Roosters and the Storm, the Raiders could be fatigued towards the end of this game.

As for the Cowboys, they have looked like a different team since Green has gone. While they still have some big issues, Coach Hannay has had the guts to make some big calls. Dropping Marsters was required…you cannot tolerate that kind of defensive weakness…while the promotion of Asi has also given the Cowboys a spark. Unfortunately, the young half has been ruled out for this weekend, with Dunn scheduled to line up at 6. With Asiata at the bench, there is a chance Hannay moves his versatile forward into the halves, though either way it is not great for the Cowboys.

But the Raiders have issues of their own. The loss of CKN means that Rapana has shifted to 1. Without Oldfield, Ricky has recalled Curtis Scott…who has had some defensive issues in 2020. No prizes for guessing where the Raiders will be targeted!

And with the Hammer growing in confidence every day and Taumalolo capturing some of his best form, I think the Cowboys have looked a lot more determined in recent weeks. While the lost to the Panthers and Manly, they kept both teams to under 24 points and if they can do that again against a Raiders attack missing some key personal, then they should do enough to cover the generous 8 point line that is on offer.

Predicted Score
Raiders 20
Cowboys 18
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Early prices from Sportsbet for Saturday's game

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Prices from Sportsbet ATM:

Panthers 1.47
Raiders 2.70

Preview to come shortly
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2020 Round 13: Panthers V Raiders

Match of the round in my view, with the white hot Panthers meeting a Raiders team that has started to show the character and grit that got them to the Grand Final in 2020. It is no coincidence to see how much John Bateman improved the Raiders last weekend. In what was a pretty ugly team performance, Bateman was a handful every time he touched the ball and his defence was second to none. He will be sorely needed to do the same tonight against Kikau.

And in another boost for the Raiders, they welcome back CNK at 1…while the Panthers have decided to hold back Edwards for another week. I was hoping that both of those team selections might have gone the other way and the Panthers -5.5 that we took would blow out to Panthers -8 or -10, but not to be!

I still think the Panthers form is being underrated by the bookies, who seem intent on waiting for them to fall over. But with Api, Cleary and Luai in such good form, and their forwards so efficient at getting down field, I do not see too many weaknesses in this team. Out wide the likes of Crichton, Naden and Mansour finish all the chance that come their way and they are getting a ton of impact from bench players like Leota and May.

For the Raiders, they have not only welcomed back Bateman, but ex-Bulldog Corey Harawire-Naera will be better off for another week of full time training with his new club. Sutton is playing great off the bench, and if Starling can recapture some of the spark he had in his breakout game against the Roosters a few weeks ago, then perhaps an upset is possible.

But I am still worried by the lack of creativity at 9, and the lack of front rower depth to match the Panthers big forward pack. One the likes of Papi go off, the Panthers will hold a big edge in the middle and I think they will have a lot of success taking the Raiders on behind the ruck with the craft Api calling the shots. And while he did ok last weekend, I have concerns about how Scott will handle the Panthers attack that is thrown his way.

On my ratings and at home, I would have had the Panthers 12 point favourites before the rain was forecast.

Predicted score
Panthers 24
Raiders 12
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2020 Previews with Steve Green

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Early Prices for Saturday Night's game from Sportsbet:

Raiders 1.12
Broncos 6.50

Line is Raiders -16.5

Preview to come later in the week.
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2020 Round 14: Raiders V Broncos

Following a tough loss last weekend against the Panthers, the Raiders will know that the top 4 is well within grasp with the Roosters falling off their perch in recent times. Despite some long-term injuries to their forward pack, they still have a forward pack featuring a whole host of international forwards…the bench alone has Tapine, Sutton and Corey-Harawira-Naera. In fact, only Hudson Young and Starling are not international players for tier 1 nations such as England, Australia, NZ, Tonga and Samoa.

As for the Broncos, they will of course turn to the likes of Haas, Fifita and Carrigan, but I am worried that guys like Te’o, Joe O, Kennedy and debutante RIki, will not be able to match the Raiders intensity for 80 minutes. Whatever Siebold says, it is clear the Broncos have a problem with conditioning. Their goal line defence shows a forward pack that is always gassed, and the Raiders will be looking to play this game fast and keep the ball in play as long as possible.

The Broncos shocking luck continued during the week, with Coates going down with a foot injury at training He is replaced by Arhturs, who has not been seen in first grade for a couple of months. It is amazing to think that with all of the talent the Broncos have had at their disposal, their two wingers for this match consist of a Titans reject (Arthurs) and a Storm journeyman (Kenner).

However, with Siebold out of the frame, there is a chance that the Broncos turn up and play to show the hierarchy that Siebold has to go. Last time the players took control during a week, they came out and flogged the Doggies in a strong display. Since then, they have reverted back to being poor…so interim coach Peter Gentle heads into this with nothing to lose, which might just be what the Broncos need to find their mojo.

But there is too much drama off the field for the Broncos to be properly focused here, and although on my ratings the +18.5 is tempting, the Broncos have not earned the right to be backed here and I think the Raiders will win by a few tries.

Predicted Score
Raiders 28
Broncos 12
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