Rabbitohs V Raiders
Adam Doueihi 1. Charnze Nicholl-Klokstad
Alex Johnston 2. Nick Cotric
James Roberts 3. Jarrod Croker ©
Dane Gagai 4. Joseph Leilua
Campbell Graham 5. Jordan Rapana
Cody Walker 6. Jack Wighton
Adam Reynolds 7. Aidan Sezer
Thomas Burgess 8. Josh Papalii
Damien Cook 9. Josh Hodgson ©
Liam Knight 10. Sia Soliola
John Sutton 11. John Bateman
Sam Burgess © 12. Elliott Whitehead
Cameron Murray 13. Joseph Tapine
Interchange
George Burgess 14. Bailey Simonsson
Tevita Tatola 15. Emre Guler
Ethan Lowe 16. Corey Horsbough
Mark Nicholls 17. Dunamis Lui
Extended Bench
Jaydn Su’A 18. Sam Williams
Corey Allan 19. Ryan Sutton
Dean Britt 20. Siliva Havili
Mawene Hiroti 21. Sebastian Kris
Skins altered to pair like skins.
(Bolded players are the winners of the skin. The extended bench is excluded.)
Match-ups:
Fullbacks:
Charnze Nicholl-Klokstad came from the clouds to join the Raiders only weeks before Round 1. He went from a nobody to a cult hero, to a potential buy of the year candidate. He has been one of the most consistent fullbacks in the NRL this year. Adam Doueihi played his best game of the year last week, and looks a talented player, but this isn’t close.
Wingers:
I’ve never been sold on Alex Johnston, it feels like another Bunnies legend, Nathan Merrit 2.0. That said, Nick Cotric has had a bad run into the finals form wise, and now has a messed-up face to boot, pardon the pun.
Jordan Rapana, like his wing partner, hasn’t had the season he would have liked. He has been banged up and has missed his centre partner for most of the year too. Campbell Graham looks a Daniel Tupou-style winger. He is a tall, fast, good finisher. He has had to play a little bit of centre this year too. I’m a fan of this kid, even if I don’t think he will be much better than he already is. He is an all-effort outside back and very reliable.
Centres:
Jarrod Croker’s only real flaw this year is his goal kicking. He hasn’t been happy with that himself, but he has had a great season otherwise. He will also remember that he dropped the ball in Round 10 against the Rabbits - well, Allan raked it out - when a certain try beckoned with 60 seconds left on the clock. It might have won the game. James Roberts has been more intent on the niggle than winning matches in recent weeks; a recent forearm/elbow drop was ugly. He is also in doubt with a thumb dislocation this week.
Dane Gagai was poor last week, and I think his best games this year have been in the Queensland Maroons jersey. Joey Leilua was lit up in lights a fortnight ago, pun intended. First, he got ash from fireworks in his eye running out onto the field, then with three minutes remaining, threw the winning flick pass. Unfortunately, he has played about 150 minutes of footy in three months. I’m going to apply the injury/suspension rule here, because he has been out with both in that three months.
Halves:
It was a long time ago that Cody Walker was leading the NRL try scoring tally and debuted in the sky Blue. Jack Wighton played all three Origins and has helped lead his team to a Preliminary final.
Adam Reynolds has had to deal with a few niggling injuries this year. Two weeks ago his team was demolished by the Roosters, and last week he very nearly cost his side a win with some awful defence. Aidan Sezer is playing the kind of footy we knew he had in him. His kicking game against the Storm was on point, and his defence was rock solid. The Raiders are in a Preliminary Final because of his form reversal for the latter part of this year.
Prop:
Josh Papalii is the best prop in the NRL, and a three-time Meninga Medalist. Sorry Thomas Burgess - actually, I’m not.
Sia Soliola didn’t play the minutes I would have expected against the Storm, but as usual, what he brought was first class. Liam Knight, a former Raider, has been the Rabbits best metre eater for the past six weeks. He hasn’t been sub 100m since Round 22, and has posted 150m twice. He is now averaging over 100m from 11 carries this season. This is the kind of talent I thought he had. I'm not sure how he didn’t get more games in the capital.
Dunamis Lui is up against a previous Raiders rookie of the year, Mark Nicholls. Both these players are ‘role playing’ middles. They are the guys who are supposed to be mobile around the ruck defensively, have a high work rate and keep the middle period of the game tight. Lui is getting more minutes and starting on and off, so I’m edging it to him.
Emre Guler has won the bench spot over Ryan Sutton. I think this is a case of Sutton being a guy that needs more time to be effective, whereas Guler is the more athletic, bigger body with better impact. He isn’t getting the minutes to even come close to Tevita Tatola. Tatola may have switched roles with Knight in the latter part of the season, but he is averaging 100m from 10 carries a game, which is extremely solid for a bench prop.
The rookie firebrand, Corey Horsburgh, has been very very good this season, and especially good in recent weeks. Last time these two teams met, he took on Sam Burgess and probably got a points decision - with Hudson Young providing exceptional support. This match-up is close, and I'm very tempted to go with Ethan Lowe. I think he has been better than Sam Burgess and John Sutton since joining the Bunnies this year. He showed his class in Origin, his versatility by playing centre this year, and some tricks, being a goal kicking edge backrower.
Hooker/utility:
Josh Hodgson and Damien Cook are two of the top three hookers in the world. I’m not ready to call either #1, but, Cook's form hasn’t been as good since Origin. Teams are mostly containing his running game. Hodgson has become a little rocks and diamonds. But, when the game has been on the line at the back end of the year, he has come up trumps.
Bailey Simmonson versus George Burgess is a weird skin in the utility section. But the Bunnies don’t carry a utility. George has had an unhappy year, while the newly re-signed Simmonson has come leaps and bounds in 2019, and forced his way into the 17, even if it is on the bench.
Backrow:
John Bateman is the best edge player in the NRL this year. John Sutton can tell it walkin’.
Elliott Whitehead has been a little forgotten by many fans, but the club and the players know exactly what he brings. He is as important to this side and his buddy Johnneh. His toughness, motor and ball skills are under appreciated. Sam Burgess has been in the media a lot recently, but none of it has been about his football. As good a player as he is, he hasn’t been "that guy" this year. He has been too busy engaging in the niggle. Last time these teams met he gave away five penalties, and should have been sin binned. Not close, in my opinion.
Joseph Tapine made the big play a fortnight ago to dislodge the ball from Josh Addo-Carr, but this week he goes up against a top three lock in the league, in Cam Murray.
Result
The tally is Rabbitohs six and Raiders 11. I really believe the Rabbitohs have limped and spluttered their way into the top four and the finals. I don’t think they are playing like they did to start the year, and their electric players aren’t making the difference they did. The Rabbits play methodical footy most of the game but require that X-factor from Cook and Walker to really push teams. The Raiders defence has been impenetrable at the back end of the season, and the attack is composed in important moments. If both teams play to the standard of their last performance, this won’t be close.
Result: Raiders to break a 25-year hoodoo (by 14-18).
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