2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

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Who will win?

Raiders 13+
1
10%
Raiders 1-12
6
60%
Draw
0
No votes
Storm 1-12
2
20%
Storm 13+
1
10%
 
Total votes: 10

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2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

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Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm
Saturday 14 September 5:40pm
Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3
Weather: Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming northerly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening. Chance of any rain: 10 per cent. Min 9 Max 19

Round 25 2019. New Zealand Warriors 24 - Canberra Raiders 20. It was a disappointing way to end the regular season for Canberra. Going into the match, the Raiders knew that they had secured a top four spot. A win would have delivered a third placed finish and a trip to Sydney for a clash with the Roosters. Instead, the Raiders finished fourth and now head to Melbourne, to meet the minor premiers, the Storm on Saturday evening. But Raiders fans can't be too disappointed. The bottom line is this: if the Raiders are to win their fourth premiership, they will need to beat the Storm or the Roosters - and maybe both - in the finals campaign.



More on Round 25: As I saw it

Team changes: Six Raiders players return for the clash with the Storm, with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Jordan Rapana, Sia Soliola, John Bateman back in the team after being rested against the Warriors. Joey Leilua (suspension) comes in at centre, and Joe Tapine (ribs) has been named at lock. Hudson Young has been named on the extended bench and his availability will be determined by the judiciary on Tuesday night.

The three Storm players rested last weekend will return to the Melbourne team. Josh Addo-Carr has been named on the wing, Cameron Munster at five-eighth and Brandon Smith on the bench in the No. 14. Sandor Earl drops out while Brodie Croft, who has been included on the extended interchange bench.

Late changes: Sam Williams and Hudson Young (suspended) were the two players to drop out of the Canberra Raiders squad of 21 on Friday afternoon, leaving Emre Guler and Siliva Havili on the extended bench. The Storm cut Brodie Croft and Tom Eisenhuth

History: The Raiders have won only 12 of 43 matches against the Melbourne Storm, for a 28 per cent win rate. Canberra has won three of the past 10 clashes between the clubs. They narrowly lost the Preliminary Final in 2016, 14-12, in Melbourne - and lost both contests in 2017. It was just a six point margin at Canberra Stadium in the first of those matches, but a 32-6 blow out in Melbourne, in the final round of 2017. The only match played in 2018 was a 44-10 drubbing for the Raiders down south. Earlier this year, the Raiders lost 22-10 to the Storm at Canberra Stadium, after trailing 14-0 at half time. However, the Raiders broke a five game losing streak against Melbourne with a memorable 22-18 victory in Bleak City in Round 22. The Raiders had two players sin binned in the first half and trailed 18-0, before scoring 22 unanswered points.


2019 Round 22 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm


2019 Round 2 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm


2018 Round 20 Canberra Raiders V Melbourne Storm

Canberra has won four of the nine matches the clubs have played at the Melbourne Rectangular Stadium - and just five of the 22 matches against the Storm in Melbourne.

Form: Raiders: LWLWL
Storm: WLWWW

The Storm has lost once in their past five matches - to the Raiders - and twice in their past 10. Their only other recent loss was to the Sea Eagles in Round 19 by a point. They've suffered just one more loss at home this year - to the Roosters by a point.

The Raiders have had a tough run into the finals, mostly against top eight opposition. They have not won back to back since their four game winning streak between Rounds 17-20. They've had recent wins over the Storm and Sharks (15-14) - but have recorded losses to the Roosters (22-18), Sea Eagles (22-18) and, last weekend, to the Warriors.

Betting: The Storm are $1.39 favourites, with the Raiders paying $2.95. The Raiders have 6.5 points start in the line betting. The Raiders' odds have lengthened over the course of the week.

Stat attack: The Storm finished as minor premiers, six competition points ahead of their nearest rivals, the Roosters. The Storm is the No. 1 team in the league for points scored (second for tries scored) and fewest points conceded. But the fourth placed Raiders are not too far away. The Green Machine ranks fourth in attack (fifth for tries scored) and third in defence.

The Storm and Raiders play similar styles of football. They are the top two teams in controlling possession - and in the top three teams for completion rate (Storm first, Raiders third). If anything, the Raiders have been even more conservative in attack. No team has made fewer general play passes than the Raiders (Storm rank eighth). No team has made more dummy half runs than the Raiders (Storm fourth), while only the Eels have made fewer one pass hit ups than the Raiders (Storm rank eighth). No team has engaged the opposition defensive line less than the Raiders. Neither team offloads a lot, with the Storm ranking second for fewest offloads, the Raiders sixth. Both teams are top four for fewest errors.

The Storm can still be quite dangerous with the ball in hand. Melbourne ranks first for running metres gained (Raiders seventh), kick return metres (Raiders seventh) and line breaks (Raiders seventh). They rank fourth for tackle breaks (Raiders fifth) and second for post contact metres (Raiders fifth).

The Storm are simply the best in defence. The Raiders are in the same postcode, but the Storm let through an average of just two tries per game and make the fewest missed tackles in the competition. Canberra has produced the fewest ineffective tackles in the NRL this year, but the Storm's effective tackle rate is just a bit better than the Raiders.

While the Raiders have conceded less than 16 points per game - the target most premiership winning teams achieve - their record against their fellow top four teams is not so good. They've conceded an average of 22 points per match this year against the Storm, Roosters and Rabbitohs. The Storm has conceded an average of 16 points against other top four teams.

Season record: Raiders 15 and 9 (4th, +150)
Storm 20 and 4 (1st, +331)

Home and away: Raiders 10 of 13 away
Storm 9 of 12 at home

Against top eight opposition: Raiders have won 5 of 12
Storm have won 8 of 12

Attack: Raiders 22 points and 3.7 tries scored per match, ranked 4th
Storm 26 points and 4.3 tries scored per match, ranked 1st

Defence: Raiders 16 points and 2.7 tries conceded per match, ranked 3rd
Storm 13 points and 2.1 tries conceded per match, ranked 1st

Possession: Raiders 51 per cent, Storm 52 per cent

Completion rate: Raiders 79 per cent, Storm 80 per cent

Running: Raiders 1604 running metres from 177 runs (17 dummy half runs), 185 kick return metres, 476 post contact metres per match
Storm 1669 running metres from 182 runs (13 dummy half runs), 221 kick return metres, 481 post contact metres per match

Tackle breaks: Raiders 33, Storm 34

Line breaks: Raiders 4, Storm 5 per match

Try assists: Raiders 2, Storm 3 per match

Line break assists: Raiders 2, Storm 3 per match

Offloads: Raiders 9, Storm 9 per match

Kicking: Raiders 567 kicking metres from 21 kicks per match
Storm 546 kicking metres from 22 kicks per match

Tackling: Raiders 326 made, 30 missed, 13 ineffective per match, 88.5 tackle efficiency
Storm 322 made, 25 missed, 13 ineffective per match 410, 88.8 per cent tackle efficiency

Running metres conceded: Raiders 1368, Storm 1227 metres per match

Errors: Raiders 10, Storm 9 per match

Penalties conceded: Raiders 7, Storm 7 per match

Our tip: The Raiders know how to beat the Storm, as they did it less than a month ago. Canberra matched Melbourne in the middle. They broke down the Storm's defence with offloads, by passing from one edge to another, stretching the Storm line. They kicked in behind the off side Storm defensive line. And, with a full complement of players on the field, the Raiders had intensity in defence, good line speed and worked the rucks well.

The challenge for Canberra will be winning twice in a row, in Melbourne. The Raiders' record is poor in the southern capital and the Storm don't often drop two consecutive games at home against any team. On the plus side, Canberra loves playing away - and their away record this year is slightly better than the Storm's record at home. It should be a great, close contest, but all the statistics indicate the Storm is just a bit better across the board. Then you have to add in the Storm's experience in finals matches. Storm by two.

What they're saying:

Josh Papalii on the Storm's desire for some revenge: "Every time you lose to a team this year you want to beat them the next time. We've got to turn up next week and if we put the performance of our lives on the line hopefully get a prelim back in Canberra."

Jarrod Croker on the Raiders' return to the finals: "Being here in 2016 was a bit like our season. It was such a rollercoaster ride and we won the last 10 games going into the finals. It was just all adrenalin filled. I certainly feel a lot more composed this time around. That's just a reflection of how we've been going throughout the season."

Canberra Raiders

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker (C)
4. Joey Leilua
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson (C)
10. Sia Soliola
11. John Bateman
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joe Tapine

14. Bailey Simonsson
15. Dunamis Lui
16. Corey Horsburgh
17. Ryan Sutton

19. Emre Guler
20. Siliva Havili

Injury/Suspension

Michael Oldfield (Shoulder) Season
Brad Abbey (Knee) Season

Melbourne Storm

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. Suliasi Vunivalu
3. Will Chambers
4. Justin Olam
5. Josh Addo-Carr
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Jesse Bromwich
9. Cameron Smith
10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
11. Felise Kaufusi
12. Kenneath Bromwich
13. Dale Finucane

14. Brandon Smith
15. Tui Kamikamica
16. Max King
17. Joe Stimson

18. Curtis Scott
19. Tino Faasuamaleaui

Officials

Referees: Ashley Klein, Chris Sutton
Sideline Officials: Kasey Badger, Michael Wise
Video Referees: Steve Chiddy, Bryan Norrie

Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLStormRaiders

The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2019 #FromAllAngles

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Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
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-PJ-
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by -PJ- »

Cmon already !!

Where's the team list ?
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

-PJ- wrote: September 10, 2019, 3:54 pm Cmon already !!

Where's the team list ?
I don't think it gets released until Teamlist Tuesday... whenever that is this week.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by -PJ- »

The Rickman wrote: September 10, 2019, 3:56 pm
-PJ- wrote: September 10, 2019, 3:54 pm Cmon already !!

Where's the team list ?
I don't think it gets released until Teamlist Tuesday... whenever that is this week.
Tuesday !! Right !!

I'll wait..
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by zim »

Strong side. If everyone's fit that's our best 17.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

How similar was it to zim's side??
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by zim »

Stick opted to start Tapine and bench Sutton. We'll see who deserves a 3 year extension more once the game is over.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Azza »

Tapine is hopefully keen to make up for his last performance in Melbourne.

Raiders by 3.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

Azza wrote: September 10, 2019, 4:27 pm Tapine is hopefully keen to make up for his last performance in Melbourne.

Raiders by 3.
Crumpet.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by -PJ- »

Azza wrote: September 10, 2019, 4:27 pm Tapine is hopefully keen to make up for his last performance in Melbourne.

Raiders by 3.
Taps needs to keep his hands to himself..

I didn't cost us the game but its not on.

Just revert to crusher tackles, chicken wings, ear twists and squirrel grips..

How you doin today Azza ?
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by -PJ- »

Video referee..Bryan Norrie.

We have a decision and we're going to the Storm..board..I'm mean board.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Azza »

-PJ- wrote: September 10, 2019, 4:41 pm
Azza wrote: September 10, 2019, 4:27 pm Tapine is hopefully keen to make up for his last performance in Melbourne.

Raiders by 3.
Taps needs to keep his hands to himself..

I didn't cost us the game but its not on.

Just revert to crusher tackles, chicken wings, ear twists and squirrel grips..

How you doin today Azza ?
I'm not worried because I expect nothing but for us to get bundled out fairly early in the piece. So anything more is a bonus and I'll be very, very happy.

I was extremely disappointed in our performance last week and some of our recent performances at home but one thing this team has done this year is consistently pleasantly surprise me.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

The problem is Azza, we're eventually going to have to play at home, and when we do, it's going to be sudden death.

We would've been better off finishing 7th or 8th.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by -PJ- »

Not worried..nice.

I've done my bit.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Azza »

The Rickman wrote: September 10, 2019, 4:58 pm The problem is Azza, we're eventually going to have to play at home, and when we do, it's going to be sudden death.

We would've been better off finishing 7th or 8th.
Agreed.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by BadnMean »

zim wrote: September 10, 2019, 4:07 pm Stick opted to start Tapine and bench Sutton. We'll see who deserves a 3 year extension more once the game is over.
Combined with Sia starting, Stick is going more maximum threat and oomph from minute 1. Get on top and then grind them out. Let's face it we don't want to start slow again.

I'm ok with it- Melbourne also have a gun starting pack we need to match and only one real threat/impact on the bench- Kamikamika vs Hors.

Tapine can never say he hasn't been given every chance to show his stuff and earn a middle spot here. It's up to him to put it together.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by BadnMean »

Azza wrote: September 10, 2019, 5:09 pm
The Rickman wrote: September 10, 2019, 4:58 pm The problem is Azza, we're eventually going to have to play at home, and when we do, it's going to be sudden death.

We would've been better off finishing 7th or 8th.
Agreed.
Just come in 14th every year so we never have to get our hopes up.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

Ricky Stuart links with Eddie Jones to learn finer points of coaching Poms

Ricky Stuart's love of the English is set to extend to the Rugby World Cup, where the Canberra coach will spend time with the Old Enemy's Eddie Jones.

"I got Nige to ask Eddie if there was an opportunity to see how he goes about his business and he jumped at it. Eddie was all for it. Myself, Nige and Matt Ford will spend the week leading into the quarter-finals with him.

Read more: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14280

Todd Greenberg says NRL could reward resilient Canberra Raiders fans with big games

Todd Greenberg says the resilience of Canberra Raiders fans is "like none other" and their reward could be the right to watch grand final qualifiers in their own backyard on a longer term basis.

"We made that decision at the beginning of the year based on a number of factors, but primarily it was about infrastructure and stadiums in Sydney as they're going through a demolition phase.

Read more: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14239

Canberra Raiders forward Joe Tapine reveals he tried to play with fractured ribs

Returning Canberra Raider Joe Tapine has vowed to throw himself into his second finals campaign despite revealing he feared his season was over after he fractured three ribs last month.

"I got three little fractures in my ribs. There's nothing you can do for it with surgery, it was just about having rest.

Read more: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14239
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Azza »

BadnMean wrote: September 10, 2019, 7:19 pm
Azza wrote: September 10, 2019, 5:09 pm
The Rickman wrote: September 10, 2019, 4:58 pm The problem is Azza, we're eventually going to have to play at home, and when we do, it's going to be sudden death.

We would've been better off finishing 7th or 8th.
Agreed.
Just come in 14th every year so we never have to get our hopes up.
Agreed. Storm by 33.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by BadnMean »

Azza wrote: September 10, 2019, 8:24 pm
BadnMean wrote: September 10, 2019, 7:19 pm
Azza wrote: September 10, 2019, 5:09 pm
The Rickman wrote: September 10, 2019, 4:58 pm The problem is Azza, we're eventually going to have to play at home, and when we do, it's going to be sudden death.

We would've been better off finishing 7th or 8th.
Agreed.
Just come in 14th every year so we never have to get our hopes up.
Agreed. Storm by 33.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by zim »

BadnMean wrote: September 10, 2019, 7:18 pm
zim wrote: September 10, 2019, 4:07 pm Stick opted to start Tapine and bench Sutton. We'll see who deserves a 3 year extension more once the game is over.
Combined with Sia starting, Stick is going more maximum threat and oomph from minute 1. Get on top and then grind them out. Let's face it we don't want to start slow again.

I'm ok with it- Melbourne also have a gun starting pack we need to match and only one real threat/impact on the bench- Kamikamika vs Hors.

Tapine can never say he hasn't been given every chance to show his stuff and earn a middle spot here. It's up to him to put it together.
That's they way I tend to go as well. I thought with Tapine's historically slower recovery it'd be a quicker start with Sutton. Tapine is good enough and gets paid well enough that we should be able to rely on him coming out all guns blazing but it hasn't happened so far this year after injury.
As you say it's all up to him now. It really is just min / maxing at this stage rather than a critical issue. **** pumped to see our top 17 get a second crack at the storm. Might even all stay on the field this time.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by reptar »

The Rickman wrote:
-PJ- wrote: September 10, 2019, 3:54 pm Cmon already !!

Where's the team list ?
I don't think it gets released until Teamlist Tuesday... whenever that is this week.
Is that tomorrow?
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

reptar wrote:
The Rickman wrote:
-PJ- wrote: September 10, 2019, 3:54 pm Cmon already !!

Where's the team list ?
I don't think it gets released until Teamlist Tuesday... whenever that is this week.
Is that tomorrow?
Yeah, Thursday I think this week.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by RedRaider »

BadnMean wrote: September 10, 2019, 7:18 pm
zim wrote: September 10, 2019, 4:07 pm Stick opted to start Tapine and bench Sutton. We'll see who deserves a 3 year extension more once the game is over.
Combined with Sia starting, Stick is going more maximum threat and oomph from minute 1. Get on top and then grind them out. Let's face it we don't want to start slow again.

I'm ok with it- Melbourne also have a gun starting pack we need to match and only one real threat/impact on the bench- Kamikamika vs Hors.

Tapine can never say he hasn't been given every chance to show his stuff and earn a middle spot here. It's up to him to put it together.
Agree BnM. Sticky has gone with a large aggressive pack to try and match the physicality of Nelson A-S et al. I think Sutton is a better defender than Tapine but time will tell. Either way, I hope we see our players forcing the Storm ball carriers back in tackles. The Chooks in last years Grand Final showed their attacking momentum can be blunted if they are being driven backwards set after set.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by -PJ- »

Who else is genuinely excited, like jumpin outta yr skin pumped ?

It's a special time of year and we have front row tix.

Can you all imagine just for a minute how we'll be in a fortnight from now IF our 17 beautiful green legends are preparing for a GF..

Wow !!
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by zim »

I was pumped yesterday. Now I am just very tired PJ. I peaked too early it seems.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

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UPDATED MATCH PREVIEW: Canberra Raiders officially omit Sam Williams and Hudson Young (suspended) from their squad to face the Melbourne Storm tomorrow. Latest squads, odds, weather, more: http://ow.ly/4Nkx50w7Tpa

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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Game day - get excited!! We got this.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Ilanraiders »

Game day!! Go the Raiders!!
Hope there is only 2 on field referees!!
"Learn to appreciate what you have, before time makes you appreciate what you had"!! RAIDERSTILLIDIE!!
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by -PJ- »

Up early this morning, I've got a 4 hr drive.

But I'll be home around lunch time. That'll give me plenty of time to get numb and ride the rollercoaster with my arms in the air.

#bleedgreen
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by Azza »

I don't feel very hopeful of our chances in this premiership after watching the roosters systemically dismantle the rabbits and anyway Stephen said we would lose by 52.

Still, go raiders
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by pickles »

Can anyone tell me what day game day is? Asking for a friend.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

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Can I dare to dream?
This place is woke.
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Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

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pickles wrote:Can anyone tell me what day game day is? Asking for a friend.
I think it's Tuesday
Gina Riley: Oh, come on, John. That’s a bit old hat, the corrupt IOC delegate.
John Clarke: Old hat? Gina, in the scientific world when they see that something is happening again and again and again, repeatedly, they don’t call it old hat. They call it a pattern.
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pickles
Ruben Wiki
Posts: 5144
Joined: November 18, 2007, 2:04 pm
Location: Callala Bay

Re: 2019 Finals Week 1 V Storm: Game Day

Post by pickles »

reptar wrote:
pickles wrote:Can anyone tell me what day game day is? Asking for a friend.
I think it's Tuesday
Thanks for that. How is frank feeling about the game this week. I’d be interested in the view from franks lap.
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