Pass mark for last six games

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Pass mark for last six games

Post by Billy Walker »

Despite the short turn around and travel you could easily make the argument that this weeks game against the Warriors will be our easiest for the next month and possibly even our second easiest game for the remainder of this season.

Warriors, Roosters, Storm, Manly, Sharks, Warriors - not a soft run home...

What’s the pass mark for the final 6 games. I think 4/6 would be great, 3/6 acceptable. Anything higher we are approaching premiership favourites anything less perhaps we’re just making up numbers in the 8.
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Re: Pass mark for last 6 games

Post by Northern Raider »

I'd go along with that. Could very well lose out next 3 but the last 3 should all be wins. Of course a result or 2 could go either way. Wouldn't surprise if we knock off the Roosters or Storm then lose to the Sharks. Crucial game could well be Manly
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Re: Pass mark for last 6 games

Post by -TW- »

4, outside of Melbourne and the Roosters we SHOULD win all of the rest, with Manly being the toughest ask

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Re: Pass mark for last 6 games

Post by Billy Walker »

This weeks game is shaping up as a must win given the three that follow.
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Re: Pass mark for last 6 games

Post by Azza »

I think at home we can win the Roosters game. I'll break it down further for now. If we get 3 out of the next 4 games I'd be stoked.
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Re: Pass mark for last 6 games

Post by afgtnk »

Pass mark for me would be beating all teams outside of the current top 8 and at least one of the current top 6 - that makes it four wins.

The three games after the next one is where the premiership test is. We came across it in 2016 and passed with flying colours - we were genuine. So far we've only had one win against the current top 6, which tells me we haven't proved ourselves quite yet.

Interestingly we are one point below where we were in '16, remembering that we finished on 39 having not dropped a game from round 15 onwards.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by BadnMean »

There is a chance the heat will have gone out of the Sharks and Warriors (final round) games by the time they come around... So it may not be as gruelling as it looks.

If we win 2 vs Roosters/Storm/Manly/Sharks (assuming they don't fall off a cliff) then we are well set for serious finals footy and a tilt.

Win 1... I have doubts.

Won 0... we don't deserve it.

Warriors if we win 1 from 2
or 2 from 2 probably doesn't phase me as much.
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Re: Pass mark for last 6 games

Post by RedRaider »

Billy Walker wrote: July 28, 2019, 11:11 pm This weeks game is shaping up as a must win given the three that follow.
Agree with that Billy. There is another factor in play should we beat the Warriors. It will put us on 28 points which has been a regular thresh hold for the Top 8. Mental toughness then comes into play. We need to be in the Top 4 to have the best chance of playing on the long weekend in October. We get the opportunity to cement a Top 4 spot by defeating Top 4 rivals the Chooks and Manly. I think the Storm are Top 4 certainties and expect our match against them to be the most intense of all. I hope there is no 'let down' once the competition points level of 28 has been reached.

I would think that 4 from 6 is realistic but 6 from 6, with our defence, is entirely possible.
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Re: Pass mark for last 6 games

Post by Billy Walker »

RedRaider wrote: July 29, 2019, 5:31 am
Billy Walker wrote: July 28, 2019, 11:11 pm This weeks game is shaping up as a must win given the three that follow.
Agree with that Billy. There is another factor in play should we beat the Warriors. It will put us on 28 points which has been a regular thresh hold for the Top 8. Mental toughness then comes into play. We need to be in the Top 4 to have the best chance of playing on the long weekend in October. We get the opportunity to cement a Top 4 spot by defeating Top 4 rivals the Chooks and Manly. I think the Storm are Top 4 certainties and expect our match against them to be the most intense of all. I hope there is no 'let down' once the competition points level of 28 has been reached.

I would think that 4 from 6 is realistic but 6 from 6, with our defence, is entirely possible.
Results and ladder position are obviously important but there are other factors at play as well. It wouldn’t be a great outcome if we spent everything to win these next 6 and limped into the finals a spent force. Conversely I could take confidence from narrow losses against the top teams if we showed enough to suggest we have their measure. I would love to get 4 or more wins out of the next 6 but just as importantly i want to see us go into week 1 of finals with momentum, confidence and as healthy a squad as possible this time of year. We have the depth in the squad this year - just need to manage and rotate players well.
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Pass mark for last six games

Post by FuiFui BradBrad »

I’m STICKing with my original post in the “Are we contenders?” Thread
“I” wrote:Yeah I just had a look at our draw and it was enough to change my thoughts on us not being contenders.
Eels (In Darwin)
Dragons (Away)
Tigers (Home)
Panthers (Away)
Warriors (Away)
I think 4/5 is doable in this group

Roosters (Home)
Storm (Away)
Manly (Home)
Sharks (Away)
Warriors (Home)
Here I think 3/5 wouldn't be too unrealistic. I'd be happy with 2/5 though

So that's potentially 7/10. My stance has changed
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by -PJ- »

The 3 home games would be nice and 1 away.

Beating Crudnulla in the shire is on the cards..

I just want enough wins to finish top 4.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by greeneyed »

I want enough wins to finish in the top two.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Botman »

3/6 would be Ok but a little disappointing, 4/6 or above would signal us a legitimate contenders on the level of any, rather than a dark horse contender
anything below 3 would have me feeling queasy about an early play off exit
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Botman »

FWIW i've got it:

@ Warriors - WIN
vs Roosters - WIN
@ Storm - Lose
vs Manly - WIN
@ Sharks - WIN
vs Warriors - WIN

But dropping that Sharks game wouldnt stun me, they play a style that consistently throws us off our game. The manly game is going to be tough too, they're a hard noses game.

That month of vs Roosters, @Storm, vs Manly, @Sharks... that's going to tell us a lot about our finals chances
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Seiffert82 »

4/6 would be fantastic, 3/6 good.

In reality though, I think the Roosters and Manly games are our biggest targets. They are the two teams around us, so effectively they are worth more than just the two points IMO. The classic '4 point games'. If we can snag those two games and pick up any two of the others we'd have to be almost sure of a top two finish.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by GreenMachine »

I really think we should be aiming for 4-5 wins as a pass.
When you hit this stage of the campaign and your a real shot for top 4, possibly a home final, you must take your chances.
Fingers crossed, we seem to be hitting a patch where we could possibly have all of our squad available too.....who would have thought that 10 weeks ago?
Injuries are definitely going to play a huge role.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by zim »

Anything that has us finishing in the top 4 is a pass from me.
Ideally we finish 2nd.

The Roosters have some injury concerns right when we get Cotric back and could get Sutton back. I think we should win the Warriors and the Roosters games.
Melbourne and Manly are a real coin toss this far out. Depending on injuries we can beat both those guys but we're likely to drop 1. Melbourne could be flat though as they have the Rabbits the week before us and are likely to start modifying their training to peak for the finals. They won't panic at dropping a game or 2 heading into the finals.
If the sharks are still alive that's a real danger game coming off 2 tough weeks and we have seen us drop off this season after being up for those big games. I still expect us to win that one and the last one against the warriors.

We can win all 6 but I think we'll go 4/6.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Northern Raider »

Only subtle differences in opinion here. Everything looks to be on the same page.
May as well lock the thread. :doubt:
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by The Nickman »

greeneyed wrote: July 29, 2019, 8:19 am I want enough wins to finish in the top two.
Me too, then I get to go to Week 1 of the finals!
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Wiki Special »

I would say 3/6 is a pass but obviously the more the better. 3 wins takes us to 32 competition points and likely 4th (on for and against). 4 wins shores up a top 4 finish.

I think we should be aiming for 4 wins. We 100% need to beat Manly and the Warriors at home.

I will go record and say I think we will win 6/6 and finish 2nd on the ladder.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Matt »

Wiki Special wrote: July 29, 2019, 11:38 am I would say 3/6 is a pass but obviously the more the better. 3 wins takes us to 32 competition points and likely 4th (on for and against). 4 wins shores up a top 4 finish.

I think we should be aiming for 4 wins. We 100% need to beat Manly and the Warriors at home.

I will go record and say I think we will win 6/6 and finish 2nd on the ladder.
MASSIVE call. :cmon
I like the optimism
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by zim »

Speaking of passes. This is an excellent video on what should and what shouldn't be a forward pass.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Coastalraider »

zim wrote: July 29, 2019, 10:37 am Anything that has us finishing in the top 4 is a pass from me.
Ideally we finish 2nd.

The Roosters have some injury concerns right when we get Cotric back and could get Sutton back. I think we should win the Warriors and the Roosters games.
Melbourne and Manly are a real coin toss this far out. Depending on injuries we can beat both those guys but we're likely to drop 1. Melbourne could be flat though as they have the Rabbits the week before us and are likely to start modifying their training to peak for the finals. They won't panic at dropping a game or 2 heading into the finals.
If the sharks are still alive that's a real danger game coming off 2 tough weeks and we have seen us drop off this season after being up for those big games. I still expect us to win that one and the last one against the warriors.

We can win all 6 but I think we'll go 4/6.
Im almost expecting to have Bellamy rest soem players for our game.

He is the master of that game - they would be nearly untouchable for the Minor premiership at that point, into their finals prep of training as you mentioned above, and it would be a very astute mental play for him. The outcomes would be:
  • We beat them without, say Smith and/or Munster, meaning we only beat their second grade side; or
  • We lose against their second grade side.
Either way, Melbourne have a mental victory over us, and when/if we meet in the finals, we still have the baggage of not having beaten them at full strength.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Matt »

How I see it:
@ NZ - 5 day turnaround cant be undersold. Nor can a team who got dudded on the wkend. However, we have gone to NZ early to counter the turnaround. I think we get the chocolates here, but I think it will be closer than people give credit.

home vs Chooks - Injuries are starting to make them a little vulnerable, but their depth is good. At home we need this, and I think we get them.

@ Storm - I agree that they might have a test vs Bunnies the wk before, but its a 6 day turnaround for them, so fatigue shouldnt be a factor. This is will really tell us where we are at. I think Storm get us TBH.

home vs Manly - They have been all over us in recent yrs. They throw Hodgo off esp. Manly have been good all yr, and just knocked off Storm. Hard to know this far out, but they have Tigz the wk before, and a 10 day turnaround. Going to be a really tough get this one. Ill tip us at home with no conviction.

@ Sharks - I think this comes down whats at stake. If they need victories its a much tougher ask; Bunnies, Panthers, Dragons Warriors, are their draw. If they are 1-3, Sharks have dropped their bundle and we got this. At 2-2 its a dogfight, and the 2019 Raiders are good enough. At 3-1 we will need to be up for it coz they will be riding high, and will will need to do a Panthers on them. Very winnable, and I think we will.

home vs Warriors - This is a must win, no matter what happened previously.

I think we go 4 or 5 from 6. Which should keep us in the Top 4, and pushing the Top 2.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Beejay »

PigRickman wrote: July 29, 2019, 8:43 am FWIW i've got it:

@ Warriors - WIN
vs Roosters - WIN
@ Storm - Lose
vs Manly - WIN
@ Sharks - WIN
vs Warriors - WIN

But dropping that Sharks game wouldnt stun me, they play a style that consistently throws us off our game. The manly game is going to be tough too, they're a hard noses game.

That month of vs Roosters, @Storm, vs Manly, @Sharks... that's going to tell us a lot about our finals chances
If we do that, and that's a big IF. We would finish Top 2 and host either bunnies or Roosters in Canberra.
Would be absolutely massive.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by greeneyed »

Hard to know how the officials will respond to the Warriors' complaints in a game situation. They've invited all their fans to bring referees' whistles to the match. That's pretty inflamatory. When the Raiders have been inflamatory, they've smashed us with penalties the next week

BTW... Annesley just admitted the Warriors got dudded on two strip penalties. "Two significant errors, costly in the overall context of the game." One was a legal strip by the Warriors penalised, another was an illegal strip on the Warriors not penalised. Plus he admits Eels shouldn't have been awarded a try after a knock on. Also says the Warriors got away with a missed knock on. On the RTS forward pass... says he can't tell you if it is forward or not looking at the replay.

All four officials on the ground in the Eels V Warriors to be relegated!

https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/07/29/gra ... -round-19/
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Billy Walker »

Matt wrote: July 29, 2019, 1:36 pm How I see it:
@ NZ - 5 day turnaround cant be undersold. Nor can a team who got dudded on the wkend. However, we have gone to NZ early to counter the turnaround. I think we get the chocolates here, but I think it will be closer than people give credit.

home vs Chooks - Injuries are starting to make them a little vulnerable, but their depth is good. At home we need this, and I think we get them.

@ Storm - I agree that they might have a test vs Bunnies the wk before, but its a 6 day turnaround for them, so fatigue shouldnt be a factor. This is will really tell us where we are at. I think Storm get us TBH.

home vs Manly - They have been all over us in recent yrs. They throw Hodgo off esp. Manly have been good all yr, and just knocked off Storm. Hard to know this far out, but they have Tigz the wk before, and a 10 day turnaround. Going to be a really tough get this one. Ill tip us at home with no conviction.

@ Sharks - I think this comes down whats at stake. If they need victories its a much tougher ask; Bunnies, Panthers, Dragons Warriors, are their draw. If they are 1-3, Sharks have dropped their bundle and we got this. At 2-2 its a dogfight, and the 2019 Raiders are good enough. At 3-1 we will need to be up for it coz they will be riding high, and will will need to do a Panthers on them. Very winnable, and I think we will.

home vs Warriors - This is a must win, no matter what happened previously.

I think we go 4 or 5 from 6. Which should keep us in the Top 4, and pushing the Top 2.
Cheers Matt - appreciate the analysis of the run home for the other teams. It seems we need to turn up for every game - not too many easy games ahead!
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Matt »

Billy Walker wrote: July 29, 2019, 2:26 pm
Matt wrote: July 29, 2019, 1:36 pm How I see it:
@ NZ - 5 day turnaround cant be undersold. Nor can a team who got dudded on the wkend. However, we have gone to NZ early to counter the turnaround. I think we get the chocolates here, but I think it will be closer than people give credit.

home vs Chooks - Injuries are starting to make them a little vulnerable, but their depth is good. At home we need this, and I think we get them.

@ Storm - I agree that they might have a test vs Bunnies the wk before, but its a 6 day turnaround for them, so fatigue shouldnt be a factor. This is will really tell us where we are at. I think Storm get us TBH.

home vs Manly - They have been all over us in recent yrs. They throw Hodgo off esp. Manly have been good all yr, and just knocked off Storm. Hard to know this far out, but they have Tigz the wk before, and a 10 day turnaround. Going to be a really tough get this one. Ill tip us at home with no conviction.

@ Sharks - I think this comes down whats at stake. If they need victories its a much tougher ask; Bunnies, Panthers, Dragons Warriors, are their draw. If they are 1-3, Sharks have dropped their bundle and we got this. At 2-2 its a dogfight, and the 2019 Raiders are good enough. At 3-1 we will need to be up for it coz they will be riding high, and will will need to do a Panthers on them. Very winnable, and I think we will.

home vs Warriors - This is a must win, no matter what happened previously.

I think we go 4 or 5 from 6. Which should keep us in the Top 4, and pushing the Top 2.
Cheers Matt - appreciate the analysis of the run home for the other teams. It seems we need to turn up for every game - not too many easy games ahead!
No mate. Its basically trench warfare for the rest of our season. It should make us battle hardened for a real tilt in September.
TBF, Manly's run isnt any easier, nor the Storms.
We are the Chooks tough game.
Bunnies draw is a bit like Sharks, a mixed bag.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Billy Walker »

greeneyed wrote: July 29, 2019, 2:02 pm Hard to know how the officials will respond to the Warriors' complaints in a game situation. They've invited all their fans to bring referees' whistles to the match. That's pretty inflamatory. When the Raiders have been inflamatory, they've smashed us with penalties the next week

BTW... Annesley just admitted the Warriors got dudded on two strip penalties. "Two significant errors, costly in the overall context of the game." One was a legal strip by the Warriors penalised, another was an illegal strip on the Warriors not penalised. Plus he admits Eels shouldn't have been awarded a try after a knock on. Also says the Warriors got away with a missed knock on. On the RTS forward pass... says he can't tell you if it is forward or not looking at the replay.

All four officials on the ground in the Eels V Warriors to be relegated!

https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/07/29/gra ... -round-19/
The crowd rocking up with whistles has potential to cause mayhem. If you went through a gap and heard a whistle you’d still run the 80 meters to score the try in case it was a fake whistle. Not the warriors best idea.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by greeneyed »

Billy Walker wrote: July 29, 2019, 7:40 pm
greeneyed wrote: July 29, 2019, 2:02 pm Hard to know how the officials will respond to the Warriors' complaints in a game situation. They've invited all their fans to bring referees' whistles to the match. That's pretty inflamatory. When the Raiders have been inflamatory, they've smashed us with penalties the next week

BTW... Annesley just admitted the Warriors got dudded on two strip penalties. "Two significant errors, costly in the overall context of the game." One was a legal strip by the Warriors penalised, another was an illegal strip on the Warriors not penalised. Plus he admits Eels shouldn't have been awarded a try after a knock on. Also says the Warriors got away with a missed knock on. On the RTS forward pass... says he can't tell you if it is forward or not looking at the replay.

All four officials on the ground in the Eels V Warriors to be relegated!

https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/07/29/gra ... -round-19/
The crowd rocking up with whistles has potential to cause mayhem. If you went through a gap and heard a whistle you’d still run the 80 meters to score the try in case it was a fake whistle. Not the warriors best idea.
It is absolutely ridiculous and the NRL is in no position to properly sanction them for the proposal, because the referees produced so many blantant errors. But no football club, should encourage fans to bring referee's whistles to the game. It is beyond outrageous, no matter what happened in the Eels game.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Begbie »

greeneyed wrote: July 29, 2019, 9:04 pm
Billy Walker wrote: July 29, 2019, 7:40 pm
greeneyed wrote: July 29, 2019, 2:02 pm Hard to know how the officials will respond to the Warriors' complaints in a game situation. They've invited all their fans to bring referees' whistles to the match. That's pretty inflamatory. When the Raiders have been inflamatory, they've smashed us with penalties the next week

BTW... Annesley just admitted the Warriors got dudded on two strip penalties. "Two significant errors, costly in the overall context of the game." One was a legal strip by the Warriors penalised, another was an illegal strip on the Warriors not penalised. Plus he admits Eels shouldn't have been awarded a try after a knock on. Also says the Warriors got away with a missed knock on. On the RTS forward pass... says he can't tell you if it is forward or not looking at the replay.

All four officials on the ground in the Eels V Warriors to be relegated!

https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/07/29/gra ... -round-19/
The crowd rocking up with whistles has potential to cause mayhem. If you went through a gap and heard a whistle you’d still run the 80 meters to score the try in case it was a fake whistle. Not the warriors best idea.
It is absolutely ridiculous and the NRL is in no position to properly sanction them for the proposal, because the referees produced so many blantant errors. But no football club, should encourage fans to bring referee's whistles to the game. It is beyond outrageous, no matter what happened in the Eels game.
It's all just a blow up
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by BadnMean »

Begbie wrote: July 29, 2019, 9:08 pm
greeneyed wrote: July 29, 2019, 9:04 pm
Billy Walker wrote: July 29, 2019, 7:40 pm
greeneyed wrote: July 29, 2019, 2:02 pm Hard to know how the officials will respond to the Warriors' complaints in a game situation. They've invited all their fans to bring referees' whistles to the match. That's pretty inflamatory. When the Raiders have been inflamatory, they've smashed us with penalties the next week

BTW... Annesley just admitted the Warriors got dudded on two strip penalties. "Two significant errors, costly in the overall context of the game." One was a legal strip by the Warriors penalised, another was an illegal strip on the Warriors not penalised. Plus he admits Eels shouldn't have been awarded a try after a knock on. Also says the Warriors got away with a missed knock on. On the RTS forward pass... says he can't tell you if it is forward or not looking at the replay.

All four officials on the ground in the Eels V Warriors to be relegated!

https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/07/29/gra ... -round-19/
The crowd rocking up with whistles has potential to cause mayhem. If you went through a gap and heard a whistle you’d still run the 80 meters to score the try in case it was a fake whistle. Not the warriors best idea.
It is absolutely ridiculous and the NRL is in no position to properly sanction them for the proposal, because the referees produced so many blantant errors. But no football club, should encourage fans to bring referee's whistles to the game. It is beyond outrageous, no matter what happened in the Eels game.
It's all just a blow up
Well played sir!!!

I'd just also like to say that anyone who disagrees is not a coward, but pea-hearted.
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Lui_Bon »

We will beat the Storm. I wouldn't be going otherwise. And hell they charge through the nose for tickets too!
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Matt
Don Furner
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by Matt »

BadnMean wrote: July 29, 2019, 9:52 pm
Begbie wrote: July 29, 2019, 9:08 pm
greeneyed wrote: July 29, 2019, 9:04 pm
Billy Walker wrote: July 29, 2019, 7:40 pm
greeneyed wrote: July 29, 2019, 2:02 pm Hard to know how the officials will respond to the Warriors' complaints in a game situation. They've invited all their fans to bring referees' whistles to the match. That's pretty inflamatory. When the Raiders have been inflamatory, they've smashed us with penalties the next week

BTW... Annesley just admitted the Warriors got dudded on two strip penalties. "Two significant errors, costly in the overall context of the game." One was a legal strip by the Warriors penalised, another was an illegal strip on the Warriors not penalised. Plus he admits Eels shouldn't have been awarded a try after a knock on. Also says the Warriors got away with a missed knock on. On the RTS forward pass... says he can't tell you if it is forward or not looking at the replay.

All four officials on the ground in the Eels V Warriors to be relegated!

https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/07/29/gra ... -round-19/
The crowd rocking up with whistles has potential to cause mayhem. If you went through a gap and heard a whistle you’d still run the 80 meters to score the try in case it was a fake whistle. Not the warriors best idea.
It is absolutely ridiculous and the NRL is in no position to properly sanction them for the proposal, because the referees produced so many blantant errors. But no football club, should encourage fans to bring referee's whistles to the game. It is beyond outrageous, no matter what happened in the Eels game.
It's all just a blow up
Well played sir!!!

I'd just also like to say that anyone who disagrees is not a coward, but pea-hearted.
Loving the zebra jokes.

TBH, Id love to see the crowd dressing as refs and blowing whistles. The NRL might actually have to take note, coz that kinda thing would go viral, and therefore world wide.
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BadnMean
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Re: Pass mark for last six games

Post by BadnMean »

Matt wrote: July 30, 2019, 9:34 am

Loving the zebra jokes.

TBH, Id love to see the crowd dressing as refs and blowing whistles. The NRL might actually have to take note, coz that kinda thing would go viral, and therefore world wide.
It's also a lot classier and less aggro/obnoxious as a gesture.

The Pamfers crap with players standing over refs giving them a gobful, the coach joining in... is a disgrace and should be rubbed out. Hand out a few suspensions and protect your local and junior refs from the same kind of garbage please NRL.
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