Matt's Match-ups 2018

[Botman]

I work with systems and models all day, every day.

A model which is right 99% of the time and throws up doozies for the remaining 1% can be more useful than one right 90% but when it’s wrong it doesn’t get it horribly wrong.

A simple explainable model can be more valuable than a complex model that’s more accurate.

Depends on what you’re doing.

Fair point, but this is opinions about football. It's not complex at all. And the system being used is spitting out grossly inaccurate and indefensible results. You cant, given your line of work, honestly support this Greeny?

Can you?
Matt certainly cant and really doesnt even pretend to. He knows it's busted as much as the rest of us.

[gerg]

I thought the purpose of the matchups was a way to determine the winner by comparing opposing players. So I think it should come down to whether you think one player will essentially beat another player. To suggest Inglis wouldn't beat Oldfield in a one on one contest is bizarre. Inglis could be out for 12 months and you would pick him over Oldfield every time. I do appreciate the effort though Matt.

[Matt]

I work with systems and models all day, every day.
If you cant stand behind your system without making significant concessions and caveats, you have to go back to the drawing board.
Matt cant and doesnt stand behind his system. He knows it's inherently and fatally flawed. For all the **** i give Matt the most frustrating thing is i dont actually think the man is an idiot! haha
The guy does know football, he knows what he sees and whilst we dont always agree he's generally got a sound rhyme or reason... except here, his featured column where where he meekly defends picks not even he agrees with.

This is going straight to the pool room.

[Matt]

I thought the purpose of the matchups was a way to determine the winner by comparing opposing players. So I think it should come down to whether you think one player will essentially beat another player. To suggest Inglis wouldn't beat Oldfield in a one on one contest is bizarre. Inglis could be out for 12 months and you would pick him over Oldfield every time. I do appreciate the effort though Matt.

Close. Its H2H on form. Not ability/ popluar opinion, etc. Thats the bit most dont get. Thats why if u r injured ir suspended for a period of time u r unlikely to win

[Botman]

We all get it
It’s just dumb, that’s all

[gangrenous]

If your model is a black box “pigman’s opinion” then it’s not very complex. But if you tried to quantify all the rules you are using within the black box it might be.

To judge Matt’s model in this case the main metrics I’d say are accuracy, Matt’s time, and explainability.
* He puts in a lot of time, so I don’t think that’s a big issue here. Least important of the metrics.
* He’s keen on explainability from what I can tell. He likes to have the choices readily understood, backed by statistics and straightforward rules. His system scores quite well here in an important metric.
* To judge accuracy we’d need some stats on how often Matt gets it right versus the alternate model.

I will never ever agree with Edrick Lee > Jordan Rapana. But if I threw out a model every time it got something wrong I’d have no models.

[Botman]

But when if your model is routinely spitting out obviously incorrect conclusions, you can’t possibly have faith and trust in it

Let’s not pretend these are rare. I would conservatively estimate 20% of his results spit out something just is simply unjustifiable and can’t be supported

Do you rely on anything gives you bum results 20% of the time? I don’t. That **** would get me fired haha

As you well know, it’s not about being 100% right. Nothing and no one is that good. But you kind of have to be in the same ball park.
You can’t rely on something that is routinely defies logic and it’s own designer doesn’t really stand behind

If your business rules are dumb and lead to frequent errors, you have to change your system or your business rules. Incorrect conclusions, for the sake of sticking to a “system” is lazy and dumb analysis

[gerg]

I thought the purpose of the matchups was a way to determine the winner by comparing opposing players. So I think it should come down to whether you think one player will essentially beat another player. To suggest Inglis wouldn't beat Oldfield in a one on one contest is bizarre. Inglis could be out for 12 months and you would pick him over Oldfield every time. I do appreciate the effort though Matt.

Close. Its H2H on form. Not ability/ popluar opinion, etc. Thats the bit most dont get. Thats why if u r injured ir suspended for a period of time u r unlikely to win

But surely ability is a factor in a h2h contest? One bloke is one the first blokes picked for the Aussie team and the other gets thrown a first grade jersey when the rest of 30 man squad are injured.

[gangrenous]

If your business rules are dumb and lead to frequent errors, you have to change your system or your business rules. Incorrect conclusions, for the sake of sticking to a “system” is lazy and dumb analysis

No one’s throwing out a system without a better one to replace it.

That’s why everyone loves pigman is a ****. Competing models.

Best option is maybe ensembling you two together! Bet you’d both love that

[Botman]

I’d love to work with Matt
Like I said, in many ways we are aligned! He does know his stuff

I think he’d just be better off matching skins in the way he does but just ignore this silly 2 week form rule. Particularly in cases where it’s clearly throwing up results that do him no justice

[gangrenous]

Gangers match ups:
Everything Matt said, except for the ones that cause pigman to meltdown. Go with pigman’s choice on them.

Voila. Best model in town

[Northern Raider]

I thought the purpose of the matchups was a way to determine the winner by comparing opposing players. So I think it should come down to whether you think one player will essentially beat another player. To suggest Inglis wouldn't beat Oldfield in a one on one contest is bizarre. Inglis could be out for 12 months and you would pick him over Oldfield every time. I do appreciate the effort though Matt.

Close. Its H2H on form. Not ability/ popluar opinion, etc. Thats the bit most dont get. Thats why if u r injured ir suspended for a period of time u r unlikely to win

Basing it on current form is fine. But purely looking at the last 1-2 games is where its flawed. If somebody plays the game of their life one week it assumes they will back it up the next week. This rarely happens with your run of the mill NRL players. When you're doing form on the horses you need to take more than their last start into consideration. Otherwise you would be losing on the punt more often than you should.

The system also fails where players are returning from injury. Case in point the Inglis/Oldfield matchup. This is where you need to consider the prior form of the player returning. Horse racing analogy again, you would have had Winx given no chance first up from a spell last week.

As Pigman says, when you see the system regularly throw up these anomolies you need to review and refine the system.

[Sid]

Yeah, I think matching players on who you think is going to be better on the day is the way to go, though I do like the comedic value the current match-up version throws up.

I leaned towards Pigman's I'm A **** and You Know It!! Team every time over Matt's Match Up's (Or as I like to call it... Stat's Stitch Up's :p)

[Northern Raider]

Simply consider form beyond 1-2 weeks and the rest of Matt's model should work as well as any.

[reptar]

Frank's Cat of the Week was the best

[Johno]

But when if your model is routinely spitting out obviously incorrect conclusions, you can’t possibly have faith and trust in it

Let’s not pretend these are rare. I would conservatively estimate 20% of his results spit out something just is simply unjustifiable and can’t be supported

Do you rely on anything gives you bum results 20% of the time? I don’t. That **** would get me fired haha

As you well know, it’s not about being 100% right. Nothing and no one is that good. But you kind of have to be in the same ball park.
You can’t rely on something that is routinely defies logic and it’s own designer doesn’t really stand behind

If your business rules are dumb and lead to frequent errors, you have to change your system or your business rules. Incorrect conclusions, for the sake of sticking to a “system” is lazy and dumb analysis

Piggy...you cant in one sentence "conservatively estimate" then in the next sentence use it as fact to come to a conclusion mate!

[Botman]

Johno... i just did. So clearly i can.

[gangrenous]

[papabear]

James Tedesco 1. Brad Abbey
Daniel Tupou 2. Nick Cotric
Latrell Mitchell 3. Elliott Whitehead
Joseph Manu 4. Joseph Leilua
Blake Ferguson 5. Jordan Rapana
Ryan Matterson 6. Blake Austin
Cooper Cronk 7. Sam Williams
Dylan Napa 8. Dunamis Lui
Jake Friend © 9. Josh Hodgson ©
Sio Siua Taukeiaho 10. Shannon Boyd
Boyd Cordner 11. Joseph Tapine
Isaac Liu 12. Sia Soliola
Victor Radley 13. Josh Papalii

Interchange
Nat Butcher 14. Emre Guler
Zane Tetevano 15. Luke Bateman
Mitchell Aubusson 16. Siliva Havili
Sean O’Sullivan 17. Junior Paulo

Extended Bench
Sitili Tupouniua 18. Jack Murchie
Kurt Baptiste 19. Liam Knight
Paul Momirovski 20. Makahesi Makatoa
Lindsay Collins 21. Michael Oldfield

ok
the reason we lose matches is not because of our list, it is because our players do really really dumb **** well below themselves.

but in my opinion, even though i dont watch much footy these days

mitchell - whitehead isnt fair because whitehead is out of position.
manu > leilua every day of the week, he is a gun and leilua is one of the stupidest players in the nrl. I like him, but defence is as important as attack and leilua is a 10 and a 0, manu is a 9 and 6.

Anybody who takes old man ferguson over rapana is balls, even the roosters unlimited cheque book dont want him anymore.

Tapine over cordner, im not 100% on, but im a raiders fan so whatever.

Soliola is our most consistent week in week out, i wouldnt take lui over him, but for somereason soliola cops way to much grief on here even though he is one of the few who hits in defence, shows line speed and goes for the one percenters.

I like Radley, but papalii all day every day.

havent seen enough of the chooks bench to comment.

[papabear]

Alex Johnston 1. Brad Abbey Johnston must have fallen off a cliff to lose this skin
Campbell Graham 2. Nick Cotric fair
Greg Inglis 3. Michael Oldfield - GI
Dane Gagai 4. Joseph Leilua Dane Gagai
Hymel Hunt 5. Jordan Rapana correct
Cody Walker 6. Blake Austin correct
Adam Reynolds 7. Sam Williams correct though i have liked sam of late
Thomas Burgess 8. Dunamis Lui correct
Damien Cook 9. Josh Hodgson correct
George Burgess 10. Shannon Boyd plud v plod
John Sutton 11. Sia Soliola correct
Angus Crichton 12. Elliott Whitehead at worst a draw
Sam Burgess 13. Josh Papalii maybe... maybe a draw

Interchange
#Jason Clark 16. vs 14. Emre Guler
Cameron Murray 15. Junior Paulo
#Braidon Burns 14. vs 16. Siliva Havili
Junior Tatola 17. Luke Bateman

[Johno]

Johno... i just did. So clearly i can.

In Piggys world all is possible..... for Pigman.

Carry on

[Matt]

So...
Oldfield was MOTM with a double.
TBH, I got this wrong, not due to my rules but, H2H, he won the #3 skin.

Anyone want to debate Johnston outplayed Abbey today?

Argue hindsight all u like, but sometimes underdogs win.

[Botman]

Those guys are going to the finals, Matt
Our seasons been cooked for a month now

It’s sport
Any given Sunday etc... those skins are wrong right now as they were 12 hours ago. That’s kind of the point. 1-2 weeks is too small a sample size

Under the Matt’s MatchUp system the raiders are right now the best team in the competition...

How does that hit you?

[bonehead]

So...
Oldfield was MOTM with a double.
TBH, I got this wrong, not due to my rules but, H2H, he won the #3 skin.

Anyone want to debate Johnston outplayed Abbey today?

Argue hindsight all u like, but sometimes underdogs win.

inglis outplayed Oldfield easily and Johnson was horrible while Abbey was par, if he catches that bomb or bats back the dead ball try chance, tackled anyone I'd pay him more credit.

Sent from my SM-G950F using The Greenhouse mobile app powered by Tapatalk

[greeneyed]

Abbey was poor, his error rate is not NRL standard.

[Matt]

Those guys are going to the finals, Matt
Our seasons been cooked for a month now

It’s sport
Any given Sunday etc... those skins are wrong right now as they were 12 hours ago. That’s kind of the point. 1-2 weeks is too small a sample size

Under the Matt’s MatchUp system the raiders are right now the best team in the competition...

How does that hit you?

Wrong. It doesnt make us the best team in the comp. A few of our players will be harder to beat next wk though.

As for the rest, I made those 2 picks on Tuesday. U guys bagged me. Yet Abbey outplayed Johnston easily. Then, with my unfounded duel injury rule, Oldie bags a double and MOTM honours.

So, on this given Sunday, well Saturday, Matts Matchups was right.

I just think its fair to give me credit when im right, coz u r happy to put the boot in when im wrong.

[Matt]

Abbey was poor, his error rate is not NRL standard.

He went within finger tips of scoring 2 tries today GE.

Johnston was trash today. I said as much in this thread and got canned.

Makes Abbey better than Johnston today. Much better

[Botman]

Wrong. It doesnt make us the best team in the comp.

Hang on... what?
How are we not the best team in the comp? In our fortnight form sample size we've beaten 2 of the best 3 teams in the comp... Who could possibly boast better than that?

Or are you trying to tell me there is more to this than 2 weeks of form?

[greeneyed]

Abbey was poor, his error rate is not NRL standard.

He went within finger tips of scoring 2 tries today GE.

Johnston was trash today. I said as much in this thread and got canned.

Makes Abbey better than Johnston today. Much better

Both poor today. Both produced three crucial errors.

Abbey made 71 metres from 10 runs, made two tackle breaks, made three tackles and missed two tackles, three errors. Those are poor stats from your fullback. You can check the stats for Johnstone... worse running metres, better defence, some big bloopers too.

The thing is, we know Johnston is NRL standard. Abbey is doing a job, doing his best no doubt, but he’s a stop gap at present. He’s not shown he’s a first grader so far. He gets easily thrown about in tackles by defenders, he needs to be a lot stronger, if not bigger, for NRL. Without losing speed. And he has a heap of work to do in all categories of his game before he’s ready for first grade.

[Matt]

Wrong. It doesnt make us the best team in the comp.

Hang on... what?
How are we not the best team in the comp? In our fortnight form sample size we've beaten 2 of the best 3 teams in the comp... Who could possibly boast better than that?

Or are you trying to tell me there is more to this than 2 weeks of form?

You guys always say 1-2wk form. Not me

[Matt]

Abbey was poor, his error rate is not NRL standard.

He went within finger tips of scoring 2 tries today GE.

Johnston was trash today. I said as much in this thread and got canned.

Makes Abbey better than Johnston today. Much better

Both poor today. Both produced three crucial errors.

Abbey made 71 metres from 10 runs, made two tackle breaks, made three tackles and missed two tackles, three errors. Those are poor stats from your fullback. You can check the stats for Johnstone... worse running metres, better defence, some big bloopers too.

The thing is, we know Johnston is NRL standard. Abbey is doing a job, doing his best no doubt, but he’s a stop gap at present. He’s not shown he’s a first grader so far. He gets easily thrown about in tackles by defenders, he needs to be a lot stronger, if not bigger, for NRL. Without losing speed. And he has a heap of work to do in all categories of his game before he’s ready for first grade.

U do realize that 2 of Abbeys errors were his missed tries. Right?!?

U r right. Not good enough for your FB.

But... ultimately Abbey > Johnston, was bang on.

[Botman]

You guys always say 1-2wk form. Not me

...Joseph Leilua outplayed the 2018 centre of the year in Latrell Mitchell on the weekend. That’s enough for me to give him the skin over Dane Gagai...

...I like what Sam Williams has given us in the past few weeks...

...Blake Austin’s season hasn’t fared much better. However, with a few howlers in recent weeks...

...The twins Tom and George Burgess are two of the form props in the competition. They were a major factor in the win over the Storm and had strong second halves against the Roosters...

...Boyd played his best game in months against the Roosters, but it’s not enough to win the skin...

...Jason Clark had what I think might have been his best game ever in the NRL on the weekend, so getting a match-up against a one gamer seems a waste this week...

...Junior Paulo, like Shannon Boyd, probably had his best game in months. That’s not enough to win the skin though...

...Luke Bateman put his body on the line a few times on the weekend. But using you head to tackle Latrell Mitchell’s hip is not advisable. Bateman is getting more minutes and producing more at the moment, which is enough to win the skin...

... I think Burns is a little unlucky to lose his spot this week, as he has been their best outside back in the last fortnight....
...Siliva Havili’s drop from the kickoff on the weekend is enough to lose the skin. Even the coach hooked him a set later....

.... I think he has played better footy on the edge and in the centres than he has in the middle in recent weeks...

...I don’t think I have watched Sam Burgess put together two worse games in his career than in recent weeks...

..Sam Burgess will certainly be out to right his performances of the past fortnight...

Hmmm
Do.. do you want me to do the roosters game too?
Virtually every paragraph of your analysis references the last 1-2 weeks and thats how skins are determined.

Come on now

[greeneyed]

@Matt That's not correct, I can recall two off the top of my head... one on the goal line to concede a line drop out, the other in general play which led to a huge break upfield and a Rabbitohs try.

[Matt]

@Matt That's not correct, I can recall two off the top of my head... one on the goal line to concede a line drop out, the other in general play which led to a huge break upfield and a Rabbitohs try.

The in goal knock on was my 3rd.

I dont remember a long break after an error by him

[Matt]

You guys always say 1-2wk form. Not me

...Joseph Leilua outplayed the 2018 centre of the year in Latrell Mitchell on the weekend. That’s enough for me to give him the skin over Dane Gagai...

...I like what Sam Williams has given us in the past few weeks...

...Blake Austin’s season hasn’t fared much better. However, with a few howlers in recent weeks...

...The twins Tom and George Burgess are two of the form props in the competition. They were a major factor in the win over the Storm and had strong second halves against the Roosters...

...Boyd played his best game in months against the Roosters, but it’s not enough to win the skin...

...Jason Clark had what I think might have been his best game ever in the NRL on the weekend, so getting a match-up against a one gamer seems a waste this week...

...Junior Paulo, like Shannon Boyd, probably had his best game in months. That’s not enough to win the skin though...

...Luke Bateman put his body on the line a few times on the weekend. But using you head to tackle Latrell Mitchell’s hip is not advisable. Bateman is getting more minutes and producing more at the moment, which is enough to win the skin...

... I think Burns is a little unlucky to lose his spot this week, as he has been their best outside back in the last fortnight....
...Siliva Havili’s drop from the kickoff on the weekend is enough to lose the skin. Even the coach hooked him a set later....

.... I think he has played better footy on the edge and in the centres than he has in the middle in recent weeks...

...I don’t think I have watched Sam Burgess put together two worse games in his career than in recent weeks...

..Sam Burgess will certainly be out to right his performances of the past fortnight...

Hmmm
Do.. do you want me to do the roosters game too?
Virtually every paragraph of your analysis references the last 1-2 weeks and thats how skins are determined.

Come on now

Youre right, i do write about the last couple of weeks when i write these. Coz the idea is to talk about new-ish things that happened to said player. Otherwise by wk 24 id have a player synopsis. Doesn't mean thats how the skins are determined.

Did Sammy, Austin, Boyd, Surgess win a skin?

Do you believe ARey, Walker, one of the Twins or Papa should have lost their skin?

Better yet, would u pick any of those the other way anytime this yr? The only 1 for me would be Papa early this yr.

Would u pick Guler, a 2nd gamer, over the experience Clark?

Whats incorrect about Sia's description? Its exactly what happened in the past few wks or month. He has played centre and edge, coz we have been missing players. He has played middle once in the last month or more.

Burns has only played about 2 or 3 games in recent wks, so thats how long his form guide is. So, yeah, its a 1-3wk thing.