Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
Thursday 8 July, 7:50pm
Brookvale Oval
Tickets: No tickets on sale due to COVID
TV coverage: Nine, Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Mostly sunny. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 5 per cent. Min 7 Max 17
Have the Canberra Raiders hit rock bottom? We won't have long to wait to see, with a short turnaround and a trip to Brookvale for Thursday Night Football in Round 17.
Last round: 2021 Round 16. Gold Coast Titans 44 - Canberra Raiders 6. The Raiders produced one of their worst performances in many years in going down to the Titans at Canberra Stadium in Round 16. The Titans had their biggest ever win and equalled their highest ever points tally. It was the Raiders' biggest loss since the 54-12 drubbing at the hands of the Warriors in Auckland back in 2014. The Titans came into the match sitting in 13th place on the competition ladder. Coach Ricky Stuart often tells us that the effort is always there, no matter the result. The effort was not there last night. Too many players showed little enthusiasm and a lack of pride in the jersey. Some, well, their bodies just don't let them play at first grade level anymore.
More on Round 16: As I saw it
Team news: Xavier Savage will make his official debut for the Raiders at fullback, after Bailey Simonsson was ruled out with a toe injury for four to six weeks. With Jack Wighton and Josh Papalii on Origin duty, Matt Frawley comes into the starting team at five eighth and Emre Guler at prop. Elliott Whitehead will miss a week due to a shoulder injury and serious facial cut. He's replaced in the second row by Hudson Young. Ryan James joins the top 17 on the bench.
The Sea Eagles will be missing Tom Trbojevic and Daley Cherry-Evans due to Origin. Reuben Garrick takes over the No. 1 jersey, while Moses Suli comes in on the wing. Dylan Walker replaces Cherry-Evans at half, while Cade Cust has been added to the bench. Jack Gosiewski (foot) has been included on the reserves list.
Late changes: The Raiders omitted Brad Schneider and Harry Rushton from their squad on Wednesday evening, leaving Matt Timoko and Trey Mooney on the extended bench. The Sea Eagles cut Jorge Taufua and Tolu Koula.
History: The Raiders have won just 21 of 58 games against the Manly Sea Eagles, and drawn one. Since late 2004, the Raiders have won only six of 25 contests, and three of the past 10. If you add in matches against the Northern Eagles, the numbers are no better. Overall, Canberra has won 23 of 64 contests, a 36 per cent win rate.
The Raiders lost both matches in 2017 in golden point - 20-18 at Canberra Stadium and 21-20 at Brookvale. In 2018, Canberra lost the Round 4 match at Brookvale, 32-16, but finally got some payback in Round 12, with Aidan Sezer clinching a 21-20 victory with a final minute field goal. In 2019, the Raiders lost in Round 7 to the Sea Eagles 24-20 at Brookvale - despite the fact the home team lost key playmaker Daly Cherry-Evans to injury for most of the second half. And the Sea Eagles backed that up with an 18-14 victory at Canberra Stadium in Round 23. Then last year, on a bleak night at Campbelltown Stadium, the Raiders lost at "home", 14-6. The Raiders have won just 10 of 29 games played between the clubs at Brookvale Oval.
2020 Round 6 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
Form: Raiders: LLWLL
Sea Eagles: WLWWW
The Sea Eagles are on a three game winning streak and have scored 50 points or more in each of them. They beat the Cowboys, 50-18, in Round 14 and followed up with a 56-24 win over the Titans. Last weekend they defeated the Bulldogs, 66-0. Manly also hit 50 against the Broncos in Round 10. Their only recent loss has come against the Knights (18-10) at Hunter Stadium.
One thing to remember, however, is that the Sea Eagles were without Tom Trbojevic for the first five rounds - and didn't win for the first month. Since his return, he's been in a purple patch of form - and Manly has lost just twice when he's been on the field.
The Raiders have won two of their past 11 games - against the bottom two teams, the Bulldogs and Broncos.
Betting: The Sea Eagles are warm $1.20 favourites, while the Raiders are paying $4.50. The Raiders have 14.5 points start in the line betting. The Raiders' odds have lengthened since the market opened.
Stat attack: The Sea Eagles jumped the Roosters into fifth place on the ladder last weekend, while the Raiders fell to 13th. Manly have a decided advantage in all the attacking statistics. They now rank second for tries scored and line breaks per match, and third for average points scored. While things are a bit closer in terms of defence, the Raiders have still conceded 13 more tries than the Sea Eagles so far this season.
2021 Season record: Raiders 5 and 10 (13th, -104)
Sea Eagles 9 and 6 (5th, +131)
Attack: Raiders 19 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 13th on average tries scored
Sea Eagles 29 points and 5 tries scored per match, ranked 2nd on average tries scored
Defence: Raiders 25 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 11th on fewest average tries conceded
Sea Eagles 20 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 4th on fewest average tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 47 per cent, Sea Eagles 51 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 76 per cent, Sea Eagles 76 per cent
Running: Raiders 1550 running metres from 173 runs (11 dummy half runs), 160 kick return metres, 532 post contact metres per match
Sea Eagles 1694 running metres from 180 runs (5 dummy half runs), 195 kick return metres, 516 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 30, Sea Eagles 31 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Sea Eagles 6 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Sea Eagles 4 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 3, Sea Eagles 5 per match
Offloads: Raiders 10, Sea Eagles 10 per match
Kicking: Raiders 527 kicking metres from 19 kicks per match
Sea Eagles 552 kicking metres from 20 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 356 made, 32 missed, 18 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Sea Eagles 311 made, 28 missed, 15 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1491, Sea Eagles 1422 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Sea Eagles 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 4, Sea Eagles 5 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Sea Eagles 5 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 4, Sea Eagles 4 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 5, Sea Eagles 3 per match
Key match-ups:
Josh Hodgson and Lachlan Croker: Lachlan Croker was a Raiders junior, but he played only one NRL match with the club - his debut game in Round 2 of 2016 against Sydney Roosters. He's had battles with injury during his time in Canberra, and he moved to the Sea Eagles in 2018. He only played eight games for Manly that year before suffering an ACL injury - and he only became a regular first grader in 2020. With Manase Fainu stood down, because he's facing serious criminal charges, Croker has filled the breach at hooker. Josh Hodgson's form has been up and down in 2021 - and he didn't have a happy match last week against the Titans. Even so, he has better numbers than Croker so far this season.
Emre Guler and Martin Taupau: Emre Guler sure has some big shoes to fill this week. Those of Josh Papalii. He's made nine appearances so far this year, and has come off the last few games. He's going to have his hands full trying to contain Martin Taupau - given his dynamic attacking game. But Guler is no slouch in defence. He's got a 94 per cent tackle efficiency rate. Taupau's numbers overall, however, give this match-up to the Sea Eagles.
Ryan Sutton and Sean Keppie: Ryan Sutton has become the Raiders' Mr Dependable in the forward pack. The Englishman clocked up 50 NRL games for the Raiders last week, and he'll be looking to step up in the absence of Josh Papalii. Sean Keppie? He's 23. He's big. The Parramatta junior stands at 193cms - that's 6'4" in the old measurements - and weighs in at 110kgs. Keppie made his debut late in 2019, before making 19 appearances, mostly off the bench, last year. He's been in the starting team for Manly since Round 6 - and he moved to lock two weeks ago. Overall, Ryan Sutton's numbers win him this "skin".
My tip: If both teams had their Origin players available, this would be an easy match to tip. It would probably be a matter of... "Sea Eagles by how many?" A lot probably. But the absence of Tom Trbojevic makes this game much less predictable. That's how well Trbojevic has been going. While both teams will be without a couple of key players due to Origin, the Sea Eagles are probably more affected, having lost both of their main playmakers. Manly's strong home ground advantage will also be undermined by the absence of a crowd due to COVID. Both teams are equally affected by the short turnaround. The Raiders might get some hoped for energy from some new faces. I'd hope that the team would also be spurred into bouncing back from the loss to the Titans. But to be honest, I can't see that happening. Sea Eagles by eight.
What they're saying:
Joseph Tapine: "We just need to bond better and play better together, find that spark again and make a run. Whether it's this year or next year or the following, we just need to knuckle down and do the hard work. They went well without their Origin players last time so they've got a lot of strike power throughout their whole team. They've been going really good so have to turn up this week, definitely. It's going to be tough, especially without Paps. He was huge for us on the weekend, especially in the first 20 minutes, he really carried us."
Canberra Raiders
1. Xavier Savage
2. Semi Valemei
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Matt Frawley
7. Sam Williams
8. Emre Guler
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Dunamis Lui
11. Corey Harawira-Naera
12. Hudson Young
13. Ryan Sutton
14. Tom Starling
15. Ryan James
16. Iosia Soliola
17. Joseph Tapine
18. Matthew Timoko
19. Trey Mooney
Injury/Suspension
Elliott Whitehead, Shoulder/facial cut (Rd 18)
Corey Horsburgh, Wrist (Rd 19-20)
Bailey Simonson, Toe (Rd 21-23)
Curtis Scott, Stood down (Indefinite)
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Neck (Season)
Manly Sea Eagles
1. Reuben Garrick
2. Jason Saab
3. Brad Parker
4. Morgan Harper
5. Moses Suli
6. Kieran Foran
7. Dylan Walker
8. Taniela Paseka
9. Lachlan Croker
10. Martin Taupau
11. Haumole Olakau'atu
12. Karl Lawton
13. Sean Keppie
14. Cade Cust
15. Ben Trbojevic
16. Kurt De Luis
17. Toafofoa Sipley
18. Jake Gosiewski
19. Tevita Funa
Injury/Suspension
Jake Trbojevic, Hip (Rd 17)
Josh Schuster, Calf (Rd 18)
Zac Saddler, Cheek fracture (Rd 21-22)
Josh Aloiai, Wrist (Rd 22)
Curtis Sironen, Hamstring/knee (Indefinite)
Manase Fainu (Stood down)
Andrew Davey, Knee (Season)
Morgan Boyle, Shoulder (Season)
Officials
Referee: Adam Gee
Touch judges: Peter Gough, Dave Munro
Video referee: Henry Perenara
NRL teams: Click here
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