Canberra Raiders V St George Illawarra Dragons
Saturday 19 June, 5:30pm
Wollongong Stadium
Gates open: 2:45pm
NSW Cup: Raiders v Dragons 3:05pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Showers. Windy. Cloudy. Very high chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Gusty winds in the morning and afternoon. Winds southwesterly 40 to 55 km/h. Large and powerful surf conditions. Chance of any rain: 95 per cent. Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm. Min 13 Max 16
The Canberra Raiders head back on the road in Round 15 - and travel to Wollongong for a meeting with a top eight Dragons side.
Last round: 2021 Round 14. Canberra Raiders 38 - Brisbane Broncos 16. It was a good win, a much needed win, for the Raiders - even if it was against the team running in second last place on the ladder. The Raiders had won one game in their past eight matches - a two point win over the last placed Bulldogs. The club has been embroiled in off field issues for months. The victory gave the team a feeling that they have not had for a while.
More on Round 14: As I saw it
Team news: The Canberra Raiders have named the same top 17 that defeated the Broncos. Young speedster Xavier Savage has been named on the reserves list for the first time. Zac Lomax (thumb) is a chance of returning for the Dragons, having been named in jersey No. 21.
Late changes: The Raiders omitted Matt Frawley and Ryan James from their squad on Friday evening, leaving Xavier Savage and Hudson Young on the extended bench. The Dragons cut Adam Clune and Zac Lomax, while subsequent indicate Tyrell Sloan will make his NRL debut and replace Matt Dufty (shoulder) at fullback.
History: The Raiders have won 20 of 32 games against St George Illawarra, and drawn one. Between 2003 and 2013, the Raiders were the Dragons' "hoodoo" team, with Canberra losing just one of the 16 matches played. The Dragons broke the hoodoo with four wins in a row between 2014 and 2016. But the Raiders have now won four of the past five clashes. In Round 8 last year, the Raiders led 22-0 before letting the Dragons back into the match in the final 20 minutes. Canberra ultimately won 22-16. The Green Machine then backed up with a 37-8 victory in Round 18 at Wollongong. The Raiders have won five of nine games played against the Dragons at Wollongong, and drawn one.
2020 Round 18: Canberra Raiders V St George Illawarra Dragons
2020 Round 8: Canberra Raiders V St George Illawarra Dragons
Form: Raiders: LWLLW
Dragons: LLLWL
The Dragons are coming off an embarrassing 28-6 loss to the last placed Bulldogs at Stadium Australia on the Queen's Birthday holiday. They broke a three game losing streak in Round 13, when they beat the Broncos, 52-24, at Kogarah Jubilee, but that is their only recent win. They had previously lost to the Storm (44-18), Sharks (13-12) and Tigers (34-18). The Raiders' two recent wins have come against the bottom two teams, the Bulldogs and Broncos.
Betting: The Dragons were favourites in this match, but the Raiders have now taken that mantle. The Green Machine is paying $1.54, the Dragons $2.50. The Dragons have 4.5 points start in the line betting. Looks like some big late money coming in for the Raiders.
Stat attack: This is a battle between eighth and 10th on the competition ladder - and if the Raiders can win, it’s an opportunity for the Raiders to perhaps move into the top eight. The two teams are level on 12 competition points, but the Dragons have one more win and a bye in hand. Both teams are outside the top eight teams in attack. Their defence is comparatively stronger, with the Dragons running sixth for fewest tries conceded, the Raiders ninth. On most statistical indicators, both teams are middle of the pack, or worse. The Raiders rank first for ineffective tackles and equal last for set completions.
2021 Season record: Raiders 5 and 8 (10th, -64)
Dragons 6 and 8 (8th, -13)
Attack: Raiders 20 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 12th on tries scored
Dragons 21 points and 4 tries scored per match, ranked 9th on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 25 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 9th on fewest tries conceded
Dragons 22 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked 6th on fewest tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 44 per cent, Dragons 48 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 76 per cent, Dragons 78 per cent
Running: Raiders 1559 running metres from 175 runs (11 dummy half runs), 161 kick return metres, 549 post contact metres per match
Dragons 1532 running metres from 177 runs (12 dummy half runs), 175 kick return metres, 520 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 30, Dragons 26 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Dragons 3 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Dragons 3 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 3, Dragons 3 per match
Offloads: Raiders 9, Dragons 9 per match
Kicking: Raiders 532 kicking metres from 19 kicks per match
Dragons 603 kicking metres from 21 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 356 made, 30 missed, 19 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Dragons 370 made, 33 missed, 17 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1492, Dragons 1522 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 11, Dragons 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 4, Dragons 4 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 5, Dragons 4 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 4, Dragons 5 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 5, Dragons 3 per match
Key match-ups:
Bailey Simonsson and Matt Dufty. Bailey Simonsson made the switch to fullback last weekend, and if he wasn't the man of the match, he was close. He produced a couple of try assists and ran for 243 metres. While he was a bit suspect under the high ball early in the game, overall he was solid. I think we can expect the Dragons to send quite a few bombs his way on Saturday. Dragons fullback Matt Dufty has been told he's not wanted by the club, and the Raiders have expressed interest in recruiting him. He toured Raiders HQ last week. Dufty has speed and a great attacking game - and that was clearly on display against the Broncos in Round 13. He produced two tries and five try assists. But his defensive problems were also on show against the Dogs. It'll be interesting to see which player comes out on top this week.
Jordan Rapana and Cody Ramsey. Canberra's veteran winger Jordan Rapana doesn't have the pace he once did. But he has been one of the Raiders' best in season 2021. He's been great bringing the ball out of Canberra's own end, and he's also the team's top try scorer. Cody Ramsey is still just 21. He made his debut for the Dragons last year, when the Raiders last travelled to Wollongong. That day he scored two tries, one with his first touch of the ball, in the first half. But those were the only points the Dragons would score in that match. Rapana's numbers clearly outpoint the youngster in this match-up.
Jack Wighton and Corey Norman. Jack Wighton's form has been down in 2021, but he showed some signs of the 2020 Jack Wighton against the Broncos. He scored a trademark try, through great stepping and powerful running. Corey Norman has been told by the Dragons that his services are no longer required - so 2021 will be his last at Wollongong. He didn't have a great game in the Dragons' loss to the Bulldogs - but his numbers compare pretty well with Wighton's so far this year, except in defence.
Josh Hodgson and Andrew McCullough. Josh Hodgson had one of his best games of the year against the Broncos last weekend. He was credited with one try assist, but he was probably short changed there. He's up against another veteran this week, Andrew McCullough, brought to the Dragons by his former coach at the Broncos, Anthony Griffin. He's solid and does a lot of tackling - and that's really the only area where he's ahead of Hodgson at this stage of his career. McCullough has a tackle efficiency of 95 per cent this season, compared with 90 per cent for Hodgson.
My tip: For the most part, the numbers point to a Dragons win, but not by much. The Dragons were downright dreadful in their loss to the Bulldogs. The Dragons have told fullback Matt Dufty and five eighth Corey Norman that they're no longer wanted, and that might be having an impact on the players concerned and team harmony. Both players were poor against the Dogs. If the two teams play anything like they did in Round 14, it should be a Raiders win. I don't expect that the Dragons will be that bad again. It should be a close contest, but I'll tip a narrow Raiders victory. Raiders by two.
What they're saying:
Josh Papalii says his focus is on playing well for the Raiders, not Origin: "I'm more just desperate to play some good footy. We've started slow this year as a club. A lot of us senior players have had a slow start. Beating the Broncos was a start in the right direction to hopefully gaining some respect back."
Canberra Raiders
1. Bailey Simonsson
2. Semi Valemei
3. Sebastian Kris
4. Matthew Timoko
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Sam Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Dunamis Lui
11. Corey Harawira-Naera
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Ryan Sutton
14. Tom Starling
15. Emre Guler
16. Sia Soliola
17. Joseph Tapine
18. Xavier Savage
19. Hudson Young
Injury/Suspension
Corey Horsburgh, Wrist (Rd 19-20)
Jarrod Croker, Knee (Indefinite)
Curtis Scott, Stood down (Indefinite)
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Neck (Season)
St George Illawarra Dragons
1. Matthew Dufty
2. Cody Ramsey
3. Brayden Wiliame
4. Gerard Beale
5. Mikaele Ravalawa
6. Corey Norman
7. Ben Hunt
8. Blake Lawrie
9. Andrew McCullough
10. Paul Vaughan
11. Tariq Sims
12. Jack Bird
13. Jackson Ford
14. Talatau Amone
15. Josh Kerr
16. Daniel Alvaro
17. Jack de Belin
19. Poasa Faamausili
20. Tyrell Sloan
Injury/Suspension
Josh McGuire, Suspension (Rd 16)
Tyrell Fuimaono, Suspension (Rd 16)
Cameron McInnes, Knee (Season)
Officials
Referee: Chris Sutton
Touch judges: Nick Beashel, Jon Stone
Video referee: Alan Shortall
NRL teams: Click here
NSW Cup teams: Click here
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLDragonsRaiders
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