2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day
Posted: April 26, 2021, 12:22 pm
2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day
Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs
Thursday 29 April 7:50pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 5:40pm
Woden Rams v Belconnen Sharks U17s: 5:50pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Morning fog then sunny. Patchy morning fog clearing to a sunny day. Possible smoke haze in the west in the morning. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 0 per cent. Min 2 Max 21
The Raiders are on a three game losing streak, and it doesn't get any easier when they host the South Sydney Rabbitohs in Round 8 at Canberra Stadium.
Last round: 2021 Round 7. North Queensland Cowboys 26 - Canberra Raiders 24. Three weeks is not a long time in football. It is an absolute age. Back to back to back losses for the Green Machine. The manner of the loss to the Cowboys... well it was, and is, simply very hard to take. The Raiders led 24-6 with three minutes to half time. A lead of 18 points. The Cowboys then scored an unanswered 20 points, keeping the Raiders scoreless for the rest of the game. This was not a loss to a premiership contender. This was a loss to a team that is expected to finish well down the ladder. Everyone had been put on notice last week, with players dropped. However, the team as a whole did not respond.
More on Round 7: As I saw it
Team news: The Raiders have lost co-captain Jarrod Croker to a shoulder injury, with Sebastian Kris moving to left centre, with Bailey Simonsson (concussion) returning on the wing. Croker is out for one to two weeks, while Josh Hodgson remains unavailable. Josh Papalii has been rested, with Joe Tapine coming back into the top 17 on the bench. The Rabbitohs have an unchanged top 17. Tevita Tatola (head knock) will have to pass concussion protocols. Latrell Mitchell is suspended, with Cody Walker filling the No. 1 jersey, while Benji Marshall fills in at five eighth.
Late changes:The Raiders omitted Matt Frawley and Dunamis Lui from their squad on Thursday evening, leaving Matt Timoko and Sia Soliola on the reserves list. Rabbitohs prop Tevita Tatola (concussion) will not play, with Jai Arrow coming into the starting team. Former Raiders Patrick Mago comes in on the bench. Dean Hawkins has been cut from the squad.
History: Canberra has won 34 of 58 games against the South Sydney Rabbitohs. The Raiders have won seven of the past 10 matches - and have also won three of the past five. The Raiders lost the first match between the clubs in 2018, comprehensively beaten 42-22 at Gosford in Round 7. But in the return clash in Round 24 at Canberra Stadium, the Raiders produced one of their best performances of the 2018 season, defeating the Rabbitohs 24-12. Canberra lost the Round 10 clash at Canberra Stadium in Round 10 of 2019, 16-12 - but prevailed in the epic Preliminary Final, qualifying for the Grand Final with a 16-10 victory at the same ground. Who will ever forget the storming, match-winning try from Josh Papalii? An injury ravaged Raiders followed up with gritty 18-12 win in Round 11 in Canberra last year. The Raiders have won 11 of the 17 matches played between the clubs at Canberra Stadium.
2020 Rd 11 Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs
Form: Raiders: LWLLL
Rabbitohs: WWWWW
The Rabbitohs are on a six game winning streak - losing only to the Storm in Round 1 this year. They are coming off a 40-30 comeback victory over the Titans. The defence wasn't a feature, but the attack certainly was. The Raiders have now won just one match in their past five - a 20-4 win over the Titans.
Betting: The Rabbitohs are $1.50 favourites, while the Raiders are paying $2.60. The Raiders have 5.5 points start in the line betting. The Rabbitohs odds have shortened since the teams were announced.
Stat attack: The Rabbitohs are a point scoring machine in 2021, and rank second only to the Storm. Canberra's spluttering attack, in contrast, ranks ninth. The Rabbitohs have three players in the top 20 try scorers (Cody Walker, Alex Johnston and Latrell Mitchell), while half Adam Reynolds is the top goal scorer. Reynolds ranks second on the top point scoring list, behind Storm fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen. Johnston is equal first for line breaks, while hooker Damien Cook ranks first for dummy half runs. The Raiders have one try scorer in the top 20, Jordan Rapana (six).
2021 Season record: Raiders 3 and 4 (8th, -14)
Rabbitohs 6 and 1 (3rd, +97)
Attack: Raiders 20 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked equal 9th on tries scored
Rabbitohs 28 points and 5 tries scored per match, ranked equal 2nd on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 22 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 8th on fewest tries conceded
Rabbitohs 15 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 3rd on fewest tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 48 per cent, Rabbitohs 51 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 74 per cent, Rabbitohs 78 per cent
Running: Raiders 1542 running metres from 175 runs (11 dummy half runs), 155 kick return metres, 566 post contact metres per match
Rabbitohs 1721 running metres from 186 runs (11 dummy half runs), 203 kick return metres, 536 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Rabbitohs 32 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 5 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Rabbitohs 4 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 3, Rabbitohs 4 per match
Offloads: Raiders 7, Rabbitohs 7 per match
Kicking: Raiders 566 kicking metres from 21 kicks per match
Rabbitohs 535 kicking metres from 20 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 355 made, 31 missed, 16 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Rabbitohs 340 made, 25 missed, 16 ineffective per match, 89 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1371, Rabbitohs 1329 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 12, Rabbitohs 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 3, Rabbitohs 4 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 6 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 3 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 5 per match
Key match-ups:
Jack Wighton and Benji Marshall: Jack Wighton was Dally M Player of the Year and Five eighth of the Year in 2020 - but his form in 2021 is not what it was in 2020. Wighton would normally be facing Cody Walker, but Walker will be covering fullback in the absence of Latrell Mitchell - and Benji Marshall will start at five eighth. Despite his veteran status, Marshall has impressed since moving to the Rabbitohs this year. And that's a worry for the Raiders - as Marshall has long held bogeyman status for the Raiders at Canberra Stadium. Wighton will want to make statement up against him.
George Williams and Adam Reynolds: Rabbitohs half and captain Adam Reynolds, 30, is in midst of some contract dramas, with South Sydney apparently unwilling to offer him a long term contract renewal. But he's not letting that impact his performances on field. George Williams' form has been down on his first season in the NRL in 2020. He and Jack Wighton didn't grab control of the team last week, in the way fans might have hoped, given the the absence of Josh Hodgson through injury. William's 2021 numbers, however, still compare pretty well to those of Reynolds. Reynolds has the better kicking game, but Williams' short kicking game is still very good. Both players have forced four line drop outs. Williams is probably the better defender (88 per cent tackle efficiency, compared with 81 per cent for Reynolds).
Tom Starling and Damien Cook: The rule changes designed to speed the game have suited Rabbitohs hooker Damien Cook right down to the ground. He loves a scoot out of dummy half and is very effective in taking advantage of tired forwards and space up the middle. In that respect, Tom Starling is a similar player. He replaced the injured Josh Hodgson in the starting line up last week, and played 72 minutes. He's had limited minutes off the bench in his other four appearances in 2021. Last year, Starling and Siliva Havili formed a very good substitute hooking duo last year, while Hodgson was sidelined with an ACL. It was most effective when Havili started, absorbing the big hits in the opening 20 minutes. We might see that again this week.
Ryan Sutton and Cameron Murray: Raiders middle foward Ryan Sutton has been one of the Green Machine's best players so far in 2021. He took over at lock last week against the Cowboys, after Joe Tapine was left out of the top 17. Cameron Murray is a favourite amongst the Sydney commentators, but Sutton's numbers look pretty good in comparison this year. If Sutton is behind overall, it is not by much.
My tip: The Rabbitohs are deserved favourites in this match. In fact, I'm surprised they're not more heavily favoured, given the Raiders' form in the past few weeks. All the numbers point to a South Sydney victory - except the recent history of clashes between the two clubs. Hopefully the Raiders can turn it around, but the head says... Rabbitohs by 13 plus.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders five eighth Jack Wighton: "The last three weeks has been a very similar story, its all about focusing on us now. We've put ourselves in this position so we have to try and get ourselves out of it. If we play like we did in the first half against the Cowboys, we'll blow any team off the park but at the moment we're looking pretty average."
Canberra Raiders
1. Caleb Aekins
2. Bailey Simonsson
3. Sebastian Kris
4. Curtis Scott
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Ryan James
9. Tom Starling
10. Emre Guler
11. Corey Harawira-Naera
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Ryan Sutton
14. Siliva Havili
15. Joe Tapine
16. Corey Horsburgh
17. Hudson Young
18. Matt Timoko
19. Sia Soliola
Injury/Suspension
Josh Papalii, Rested (Rd 9)
Jarrod Croker, Shoulder (Rd 9-10)
Josh Hodgson, Calf, (Rd 9-10)
Albert Hopoate, Shoulder (Rd 11-13)
Harley Smith-Shields, Biceps tendon (Rd 20-22)
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Neck (Indefintite)
South Sydney Rabbitohs
1. Cody Walker
2. Alex Johnston
3. Dane Gagai
4. Campbell Graham
5. Jaxson Paulo
6. Benji Marshall
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Thomas Burgess
9. Damien Cook
17. Jai Arrow
11. Keaon Koloamatangi
12. Jaydn Su’A
13. Cameron Murray
14. Mark Nicholls
15. Liam Knight
16. Jacob Host
20. Patrick Mago
18. Steven Marsters
19. Hame Sele
Injury/Suspension
Tevita Tatola, Concussion (TBA)
Blake Taaffe, Ankle (Rd 9)
Latrell Mitchell, Suspension (Rd 11)
Josh Mansour, Hamstring (Rd 11)
Jed Cartwright, Back (Mid-season)
Brock Gardner, Achilles (Indefinite)
Officials
Referee: Ben Cummins
Touch judges: Peter Gough, Liam Kennedy
Video referee: Henry Perenara
NRL teams: Click here
NSW Cup teams: Click here
SG Ball Grand Final teams: Click here
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLRaidersSouths
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2021 #FromAllAngles
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs
Thursday 29 April 7:50pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 5:40pm
Woden Rams v Belconnen Sharks U17s: 5:50pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Morning fog then sunny. Patchy morning fog clearing to a sunny day. Possible smoke haze in the west in the morning. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 0 per cent. Min 2 Max 21
The Raiders are on a three game losing streak, and it doesn't get any easier when they host the South Sydney Rabbitohs in Round 8 at Canberra Stadium.
Last round: 2021 Round 7. North Queensland Cowboys 26 - Canberra Raiders 24. Three weeks is not a long time in football. It is an absolute age. Back to back to back losses for the Green Machine. The manner of the loss to the Cowboys... well it was, and is, simply very hard to take. The Raiders led 24-6 with three minutes to half time. A lead of 18 points. The Cowboys then scored an unanswered 20 points, keeping the Raiders scoreless for the rest of the game. This was not a loss to a premiership contender. This was a loss to a team that is expected to finish well down the ladder. Everyone had been put on notice last week, with players dropped. However, the team as a whole did not respond.
More on Round 7: As I saw it
Team news: The Raiders have lost co-captain Jarrod Croker to a shoulder injury, with Sebastian Kris moving to left centre, with Bailey Simonsson (concussion) returning on the wing. Croker is out for one to two weeks, while Josh Hodgson remains unavailable. Josh Papalii has been rested, with Joe Tapine coming back into the top 17 on the bench. The Rabbitohs have an unchanged top 17. Tevita Tatola (head knock) will have to pass concussion protocols. Latrell Mitchell is suspended, with Cody Walker filling the No. 1 jersey, while Benji Marshall fills in at five eighth.
Late changes:The Raiders omitted Matt Frawley and Dunamis Lui from their squad on Thursday evening, leaving Matt Timoko and Sia Soliola on the reserves list. Rabbitohs prop Tevita Tatola (concussion) will not play, with Jai Arrow coming into the starting team. Former Raiders Patrick Mago comes in on the bench. Dean Hawkins has been cut from the squad.
History: Canberra has won 34 of 58 games against the South Sydney Rabbitohs. The Raiders have won seven of the past 10 matches - and have also won three of the past five. The Raiders lost the first match between the clubs in 2018, comprehensively beaten 42-22 at Gosford in Round 7. But in the return clash in Round 24 at Canberra Stadium, the Raiders produced one of their best performances of the 2018 season, defeating the Rabbitohs 24-12. Canberra lost the Round 10 clash at Canberra Stadium in Round 10 of 2019, 16-12 - but prevailed in the epic Preliminary Final, qualifying for the Grand Final with a 16-10 victory at the same ground. Who will ever forget the storming, match-winning try from Josh Papalii? An injury ravaged Raiders followed up with gritty 18-12 win in Round 11 in Canberra last year. The Raiders have won 11 of the 17 matches played between the clubs at Canberra Stadium.
2020 Rd 11 Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs
Form: Raiders: LWLLL
Rabbitohs: WWWWW
The Rabbitohs are on a six game winning streak - losing only to the Storm in Round 1 this year. They are coming off a 40-30 comeback victory over the Titans. The defence wasn't a feature, but the attack certainly was. The Raiders have now won just one match in their past five - a 20-4 win over the Titans.
Betting: The Rabbitohs are $1.50 favourites, while the Raiders are paying $2.60. The Raiders have 5.5 points start in the line betting. The Rabbitohs odds have shortened since the teams were announced.
Stat attack: The Rabbitohs are a point scoring machine in 2021, and rank second only to the Storm. Canberra's spluttering attack, in contrast, ranks ninth. The Rabbitohs have three players in the top 20 try scorers (Cody Walker, Alex Johnston and Latrell Mitchell), while half Adam Reynolds is the top goal scorer. Reynolds ranks second on the top point scoring list, behind Storm fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen. Johnston is equal first for line breaks, while hooker Damien Cook ranks first for dummy half runs. The Raiders have one try scorer in the top 20, Jordan Rapana (six).
2021 Season record: Raiders 3 and 4 (8th, -14)
Rabbitohs 6 and 1 (3rd, +97)
Attack: Raiders 20 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked equal 9th on tries scored
Rabbitohs 28 points and 5 tries scored per match, ranked equal 2nd on tries scored
Defence: Raiders 22 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 8th on fewest tries conceded
Rabbitohs 15 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 3rd on fewest tries conceded
Possession: Raiders 48 per cent, Rabbitohs 51 per cent
Completion rate: Raiders 74 per cent, Rabbitohs 78 per cent
Running: Raiders 1542 running metres from 175 runs (11 dummy half runs), 155 kick return metres, 566 post contact metres per match
Rabbitohs 1721 running metres from 186 runs (11 dummy half runs), 203 kick return metres, 536 post contact metres per match
Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Rabbitohs 32 per match
Line breaks: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 5 per match
Try assists: Raiders 3, Rabbitohs 4 per match
Line break assists: Raiders 3, Rabbitohs 4 per match
Offloads: Raiders 7, Rabbitohs 7 per match
Kicking: Raiders 566 kicking metres from 21 kicks per match
Rabbitohs 535 kicking metres from 20 kicks per match
Tackling: Raiders 355 made, 31 missed, 16 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Rabbitohs 340 made, 25 missed, 16 ineffective per match, 89 per cent tackle efficiency
Running metres conceded: Raiders 1371, Rabbitohs 1329 metres per match
Errors: Raiders 12, Rabbitohs 11 per match
Penalties conceded: Raiders 3, Rabbitohs 4 per match
Penalties awarded: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 6 per match
Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 3 per match
Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 5 per match
Key match-ups:
Jack Wighton and Benji Marshall: Jack Wighton was Dally M Player of the Year and Five eighth of the Year in 2020 - but his form in 2021 is not what it was in 2020. Wighton would normally be facing Cody Walker, but Walker will be covering fullback in the absence of Latrell Mitchell - and Benji Marshall will start at five eighth. Despite his veteran status, Marshall has impressed since moving to the Rabbitohs this year. And that's a worry for the Raiders - as Marshall has long held bogeyman status for the Raiders at Canberra Stadium. Wighton will want to make statement up against him.
George Williams and Adam Reynolds: Rabbitohs half and captain Adam Reynolds, 30, is in midst of some contract dramas, with South Sydney apparently unwilling to offer him a long term contract renewal. But he's not letting that impact his performances on field. George Williams' form has been down on his first season in the NRL in 2020. He and Jack Wighton didn't grab control of the team last week, in the way fans might have hoped, given the the absence of Josh Hodgson through injury. William's 2021 numbers, however, still compare pretty well to those of Reynolds. Reynolds has the better kicking game, but Williams' short kicking game is still very good. Both players have forced four line drop outs. Williams is probably the better defender (88 per cent tackle efficiency, compared with 81 per cent for Reynolds).
Tom Starling and Damien Cook: The rule changes designed to speed the game have suited Rabbitohs hooker Damien Cook right down to the ground. He loves a scoot out of dummy half and is very effective in taking advantage of tired forwards and space up the middle. In that respect, Tom Starling is a similar player. He replaced the injured Josh Hodgson in the starting line up last week, and played 72 minutes. He's had limited minutes off the bench in his other four appearances in 2021. Last year, Starling and Siliva Havili formed a very good substitute hooking duo last year, while Hodgson was sidelined with an ACL. It was most effective when Havili started, absorbing the big hits in the opening 20 minutes. We might see that again this week.
Ryan Sutton and Cameron Murray: Raiders middle foward Ryan Sutton has been one of the Green Machine's best players so far in 2021. He took over at lock last week against the Cowboys, after Joe Tapine was left out of the top 17. Cameron Murray is a favourite amongst the Sydney commentators, but Sutton's numbers look pretty good in comparison this year. If Sutton is behind overall, it is not by much.
My tip: The Rabbitohs are deserved favourites in this match. In fact, I'm surprised they're not more heavily favoured, given the Raiders' form in the past few weeks. All the numbers point to a South Sydney victory - except the recent history of clashes between the two clubs. Hopefully the Raiders can turn it around, but the head says... Rabbitohs by 13 plus.
What they're saying:
Canberra Raiders five eighth Jack Wighton: "The last three weeks has been a very similar story, its all about focusing on us now. We've put ourselves in this position so we have to try and get ourselves out of it. If we play like we did in the first half against the Cowboys, we'll blow any team off the park but at the moment we're looking pretty average."
Canberra Raiders
1. Caleb Aekins
2. Bailey Simonsson
3. Sebastian Kris
4. Curtis Scott
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Ryan James
9. Tom Starling
10. Emre Guler
11. Corey Harawira-Naera
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Ryan Sutton
14. Siliva Havili
15. Joe Tapine
16. Corey Horsburgh
17. Hudson Young
18. Matt Timoko
19. Sia Soliola
Injury/Suspension
Josh Papalii, Rested (Rd 9)
Jarrod Croker, Shoulder (Rd 9-10)
Josh Hodgson, Calf, (Rd 9-10)
Albert Hopoate, Shoulder (Rd 11-13)
Harley Smith-Shields, Biceps tendon (Rd 20-22)
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Neck (Indefintite)
South Sydney Rabbitohs
1. Cody Walker
2. Alex Johnston
3. Dane Gagai
4. Campbell Graham
5. Jaxson Paulo
6. Benji Marshall
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Thomas Burgess
9. Damien Cook
17. Jai Arrow
11. Keaon Koloamatangi
12. Jaydn Su’A
13. Cameron Murray
14. Mark Nicholls
15. Liam Knight
16. Jacob Host
20. Patrick Mago
18. Steven Marsters
19. Hame Sele
Injury/Suspension
Tevita Tatola, Concussion (TBA)
Blake Taaffe, Ankle (Rd 9)
Latrell Mitchell, Suspension (Rd 11)
Josh Mansour, Hamstring (Rd 11)
Jed Cartwright, Back (Mid-season)
Brock Gardner, Achilles (Indefinite)
Officials
Referee: Ben Cummins
Touch judges: Peter Gough, Liam Kennedy
Video referee: Henry Perenara
NRL teams: Click here
NSW Cup teams: Click here
SG Ball Grand Final teams: Click here
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLRaidersSouths
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2021 #FromAllAngles
Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
