2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

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Who will win?

Raiders 13+
2
13%
Raiders 1-12
3
19%
Draw
0
No votes
Rabbitohs 1-12
2
13%
Rabbitohs 13+
9
56%
 
Total votes: 16

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greeneyed
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2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

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Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs
Thursday 29 April 7:50pm
Canberra Stadium
Gates open: 5:40pm
Woden Rams v Belconnen Sharks U17s: 5:50pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Morning fog then sunny. Patchy morning fog clearing to a sunny day. Possible smoke haze in the west in the morning. Light winds. Chance of any rain: 0 per cent. Min 2 Max 21

The Raiders are on a three game losing streak, and it doesn't get any easier when they host the South Sydney Rabbitohs in Round 8 at Canberra Stadium.

Last round: 2021 Round 7. North Queensland Cowboys 26 - Canberra Raiders 24. Three weeks is not a long time in football. It is an absolute age. Back to back to back losses for the Green Machine. The manner of the loss to the Cowboys... well it was, and is, simply very hard to take. The Raiders led 24-6 with three minutes to half time. A lead of 18 points. The Cowboys then scored an unanswered 20 points, keeping the Raiders scoreless for the rest of the game. This was not a loss to a premiership contender. This was a loss to a team that is expected to finish well down the ladder. Everyone had been put on notice last week, with players dropped. However, the team as a whole did not respond.



More on Round 7: As I saw it

Team news: The Raiders have lost co-captain Jarrod Croker to a shoulder injury, with Sebastian Kris moving to left centre, with Bailey Simonsson (concussion) returning on the wing. Croker is out for one to two weeks, while Josh Hodgson remains unavailable. Josh Papalii has been rested, with Joe Tapine coming back into the top 17 on the bench. The Rabbitohs have an unchanged top 17. Tevita Tatola (head knock) will have to pass concussion protocols. Latrell Mitchell is suspended, with Cody Walker filling the No. 1 jersey, while Benji Marshall fills in at five eighth.

Late changes:The Raiders omitted Matt Frawley and Dunamis Lui from their squad on Thursday evening, leaving Matt Timoko and Sia Soliola on the reserves list. Rabbitohs prop Tevita Tatola (concussion) will not play, with Jai Arrow coming into the starting team. Former Raiders Patrick Mago comes in on the bench. Dean Hawkins has been cut from the squad.

History: Canberra has won 34 of 58 games against the South Sydney Rabbitohs. The Raiders have won seven of the past 10 matches - and have also won three of the past five. The Raiders lost the first match between the clubs in 2018, comprehensively beaten 42-22 at Gosford in Round 7. But in the return clash in Round 24 at Canberra Stadium, the Raiders produced one of their best performances of the 2018 season, defeating the Rabbitohs 24-12. Canberra lost the Round 10 clash at Canberra Stadium in Round 10 of 2019, 16-12 - but prevailed in the epic Preliminary Final, qualifying for the Grand Final with a 16-10 victory at the same ground. Who will ever forget the storming, match-winning try from Josh Papalii? An injury ravaged Raiders followed up with gritty 18-12 win in Round 11 in Canberra last year. The Raiders have won 11 of the 17 matches played between the clubs at Canberra Stadium.


2020 Rd 11 Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs

Form: Raiders: LWLLL
Rabbitohs: WWWWW

The Rabbitohs are on a six game winning streak - losing only to the Storm in Round 1 this year. They are coming off a 40-30 comeback victory over the Titans. The defence wasn't a feature, but the attack certainly was. The Raiders have now won just one match in their past five - a 20-4 win over the Titans.

Betting: The Rabbitohs are $1.50 favourites, while the Raiders are paying $2.60. The Raiders have 5.5 points start in the line betting. The Rabbitohs odds have shortened since the teams were announced.

Stat attack: The Rabbitohs are a point scoring machine in 2021, and rank second only to the Storm. Canberra's spluttering attack, in contrast, ranks ninth. The Rabbitohs have three players in the top 20 try scorers (Cody Walker, Alex Johnston and Latrell Mitchell), while half Adam Reynolds is the top goal scorer. Reynolds ranks second on the top point scoring list, behind Storm fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen. Johnston is equal first for line breaks, while hooker Damien Cook ranks first for dummy half runs. The Raiders have one try scorer in the top 20, Jordan Rapana (six).

2021 Season record: Raiders 3 and 4 (8th, -14)
Rabbitohs 6 and 1 (3rd, +97)

Attack: Raiders 20 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked equal 9th on tries scored
Rabbitohs 28 points and 5 tries scored per match, ranked equal 2nd on tries scored

Defence: Raiders 22 points and 4 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 8th on fewest tries conceded
Rabbitohs 15 points and 2 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 3rd on fewest tries conceded

Possession: Raiders 48 per cent, Rabbitohs 51 per cent

Completion rate: Raiders 74 per cent, Rabbitohs 78 per cent

Running: Raiders 1542 running metres from 175 runs (11 dummy half runs), 155 kick return metres, 566 post contact metres per match
Rabbitohs 1721 running metres from 186 runs (11 dummy half runs), 203 kick return metres, 536 post contact metres per match

Tackle breaks: Raiders 31, Rabbitohs 32 per match

Line breaks: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 5 per match

Try assists: Raiders 3, Rabbitohs 4 per match

Line break assists: Raiders 3, Rabbitohs 4 per match

Offloads: Raiders 7, Rabbitohs 7 per match

Kicking: Raiders 566 kicking metres from 21 kicks per match
Rabbitohs 535 kicking metres from 20 kicks per match

Tackling: Raiders 355 made, 31 missed, 16 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Rabbitohs 340 made, 25 missed, 16 ineffective per match, 89 per cent tackle efficiency

Running metres conceded: Raiders 1371, Rabbitohs 1329 metres per match

Errors: Raiders 12, Rabbitohs 11 per match

Penalties conceded: Raiders 3, Rabbitohs 4 per match

Penalties awarded: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 6 per match

Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 3 per match

Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Rabbitohs 5 per match

Key match-ups:

Jack Wighton and Benji Marshall: Jack Wighton was Dally M Player of the Year and Five eighth of the Year in 2020 - but his form in 2021 is not what it was in 2020. Wighton would normally be facing Cody Walker, but Walker will be covering fullback in the absence of Latrell Mitchell - and Benji Marshall will start at five eighth. Despite his veteran status, Marshall has impressed since moving to the Rabbitohs this year. And that's a worry for the Raiders - as Marshall has long held bogeyman status for the Raiders at Canberra Stadium. Wighton will want to make statement up against him.

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George Williams and Adam Reynolds: Rabbitohs half and captain Adam Reynolds, 30, is in midst of some contract dramas, with South Sydney apparently unwilling to offer him a long term contract renewal. But he's not letting that impact his performances on field. George Williams' form has been down on his first season in the NRL in 2020. He and Jack Wighton didn't grab control of the team last week, in the way fans might have hoped, given the the absence of Josh Hodgson through injury. William's 2021 numbers, however, still compare pretty well to those of Reynolds. Reynolds has the better kicking game, but Williams' short kicking game is still very good. Both players have forced four line drop outs. Williams is probably the better defender (88 per cent tackle efficiency, compared with 81 per cent for Reynolds).

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Tom Starling and Damien Cook: The rule changes designed to speed the game have suited Rabbitohs hooker Damien Cook right down to the ground. He loves a scoot out of dummy half and is very effective in taking advantage of tired forwards and space up the middle. In that respect, Tom Starling is a similar player. He replaced the injured Josh Hodgson in the starting line up last week, and played 72 minutes. He's had limited minutes off the bench in his other four appearances in 2021. Last year, Starling and Siliva Havili formed a very good substitute hooking duo last year, while Hodgson was sidelined with an ACL. It was most effective when Havili started, absorbing the big hits in the opening 20 minutes. We might see that again this week.

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Ryan Sutton and Cameron Murray: Raiders middle foward Ryan Sutton has been one of the Green Machine's best players so far in 2021. He took over at lock last week against the Cowboys, after Joe Tapine was left out of the top 17. Cameron Murray is a favourite amongst the Sydney commentators, but Sutton's numbers look pretty good in comparison this year. If Sutton is behind overall, it is not by much.

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My tip: The Rabbitohs are deserved favourites in this match. In fact, I'm surprised they're not more heavily favoured, given the Raiders' form in the past few weeks. All the numbers point to a South Sydney victory - except the recent history of clashes between the two clubs. Hopefully the Raiders can turn it around, but the head says... Rabbitohs by 13 plus.

What they're saying:

Canberra Raiders five eighth Jack Wighton: "The last three weeks has been a very similar story, its all about focusing on us now. We've put ourselves in this position so we have to try and get ourselves out of it. If we play like we did in the first half against the Cowboys, we'll blow any team off the park but at the moment we're looking pretty average."

Canberra Raiders

1. Caleb Aekins
2. Bailey Simonsson
3. Sebastian Kris
4. Curtis Scott
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Ryan James
9. Tom Starling
10. Emre Guler
11. Corey Harawira-Naera
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Ryan Sutton

14. Siliva Havili
15. Joe Tapine
16. Corey Horsburgh
17. Hudson Young

18. Matt Timoko
19. Sia Soliola

Injury/Suspension
Josh Papalii, Rested (Rd 9)
Jarrod Croker, Shoulder (Rd 9-10)
Josh Hodgson, Calf, (Rd 9-10)
Albert Hopoate, Shoulder (Rd 11-13)
Harley Smith-Shields, Biceps tendon (Rd 20-22)
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Neck (Indefintite)

South Sydney Rabbitohs

1. Cody Walker
2. Alex Johnston
3. Dane Gagai
4. Campbell Graham
5. Jaxson Paulo
6. Benji Marshall
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Thomas Burgess
9. Damien Cook
17. Jai Arrow
11. Keaon Koloamatangi
12. Jaydn Su’A
13. Cameron Murray

14. Mark Nicholls
15. Liam Knight
16. Jacob Host
20. Patrick Mago

18. Steven Marsters
19. Hame Sele

Injury/Suspension
Tevita Tatola, Concussion (TBA)
Blake Taaffe, Ankle (Rd 9)
Latrell Mitchell, Suspension (Rd 11)
Josh Mansour, Hamstring (Rd 11)
Jed Cartwright, Back (Mid-season)
Brock Gardner, Achilles (Indefinite)

Officials

Referee: Ben Cummins
Touch judges: Peter Gough, Liam Kennedy
Video referee: Henry Perenara

NRL teams: Click here
NSW Cup teams: Click here
SG Ball Grand Final teams: Click here

Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLRaidersSouths

The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2021 #FromAllAngles

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Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
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Ilanraiders
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Ilanraiders »

Game day!! Go the Raiders!!
Papa will be missed...
GW n JW please stand up....
Testing times for the boys, a lot of experience on the sidelines and our backs against the wall...
Hope they repay the home crowd from that rabble they put on against the eels..
"Learn to appreciate what you have, before time makes you appreciate what you had"!! RAIDERSTILLIDIE!!
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Kryptonite »

Game Day!
Let’s go wabbit huntn !
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Game day! Let’s dispel that myth that the Burgess is better than a hungry Jack!
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider »

Game day already. Long weekend and 5 day turnaround it came up damn fast.
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by mobrulesall »

Heck, glad I'll be there tonight. Obviously we can win, gonna be hard. Rip in lads.
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Raiders by 12;
Whitehead first try scorer; and
Jack to put one 3 meters over sideline in the 56 minute.
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by BadnMean »

Billy Walker wrote: April 29, 2021, 7:49 am Game day! Let’s dispel that myth that the Burgess is better than a hungry Jack!
That's... magnificent.

I'll be there again today. Honestly no idea how the boys will shape up after all these injuries and performances.

Will be watching to see if Aekins produces another "innocent bystander" effort in goal line defence and getting across to grubbers placed in even the most obvious places on the 5th tackle... wasn't impressed at all last performance.

Souths have a good pack. If ours don't aim up, our halves will struggle again.
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Mickey_Raider »

I am finding it hard to see a path to victory here tonight to be honest.

2019-esque defence would provide a narrow path against a red-hot attacking outfit like the Bunnies.

2021-esque defence is a bit of a fools errand.
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by -TW- »

Mickey_Raider wrote:I am finding it hard to see a path to victory here tonight to be honest.

2019-esque defence would provide a narrow path against a red-hot attacking outfit like the Bunnies.

2021-esque defence is a bit of a fools errand.
And 2019 defence allows us to scrag, hold down, give away penalties

In 2021 we'd be blown off the park with set restarts

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

BadnMean wrote: April 29, 2021, 9:36 am
Billy Walker wrote: April 29, 2021, 7:49 am Game day! Let’s dispel that myth that the Burgess is better than a hungry Jack!
That's... magnificent.

I'll be there again today. Honestly no idea how the boys will shape up after all these injuries and performances.

Will be watching to see if Aekins produces another "innocent bystander" effort in goal line defence and getting across to grubbers placed in even the most obvious places on the 5th tackle... wasn't impressed at all last performance.

Souths have a good pack. If ours don't aim up, our halves will struggle again.
It will be one of those pleasantly unexpected results tonight. Some will put it down to the team responded to a Ricky motivational master stroke; others may say it was all to do with to the full moon. I just think there is too much talent and pride in the squad to keep losing and it will only take a lucky bounce to spark something special and blast us back to form.
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Canberra Milk »

https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/04/28/sta ... half-woes/

Very interesting - I must admit I didn't notice how specific our woes are to second halves
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

Canberra Milk wrote: April 29, 2021, 10:30 am https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/04/28/sta ... half-woes/

Very interesting - I must admit I didn't notice how specific our woes are to second halves
It's not fitness though, more a lack of stick-solidiveness
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Canberra Milk »

I guess the stats are a bit blown out because we kept having to play forwards in the backs... but maybe there's more to it
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by radicalraider »

What minute will we see Jack wightouton a full
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider »

radicalraider wrote: April 29, 2021, 11:54 am What minute will we see Jack wightouton a full
We could organise a sweepstake.
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by radicalraider »

Northern Raider wrote: April 29, 2021, 11:54 am
radicalraider wrote: April 29, 2021, 11:54 am What minute will we see Jack wightouton a full
We could organise a sweepstake.
I'll take 15'
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

radicalraider wrote: April 29, 2021, 11:54 am What minute will we see Jack wightouton a full
I’ve locked in the 56th minute and called it for 3 meters over. Was paying surprisingly short odds on Sportsbet $1.04
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by radicalraider »

Billy Walker wrote: April 29, 2021, 12:05 pm
radicalraider wrote: April 29, 2021, 11:54 am What minute will we see Jack wightouton a full
I’ve locked in the 56th minute and called it for 3 meters over. Was paying surprisingly short odds on Sportsbet $1.04
Surely sportsbet have a market for it by now
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

radicalraider wrote: April 29, 2021, 12:07 pm
Billy Walker wrote: April 29, 2021, 12:05 pm
radicalraider wrote: April 29, 2021, 11:54 am What minute will we see Jack wightouton a full
I’ve locked in the 56th minute and called it for 3 meters over. Was paying surprisingly short odds on Sportsbet $1.04
Surely sportsbet have a market for it by now
Is it really gambling when something is a sure thing though? :lol:
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Dimes »

Joey Johns thinks Raiders can win

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/benji- ... 57n70.html

Myself with some of the backline changes and Tarps back in... who knows... might happen
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Bay53 »

Northern Raider wrote: April 29, 2021, 8:49 am Game day already. Long weekend and 5 day turnaround it came up damn fast.
Sure does. I only got back from Townsville on Tuesday night and we are up to the next game already.
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider »

radicalraider wrote: April 29, 2021, 12:04 pm
Northern Raider wrote: April 29, 2021, 11:54 am
radicalraider wrote: April 29, 2021, 11:54 am What minute will we see Jack wightouton a full
We could organise a sweepstake.
I'll take 15'
Ok, lets bracket that into 11th-15th minute.

I'll take 21st-25th minute.
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Billy Walker »

Northern Raider wrote: April 29, 2021, 1:07 pm
radicalraider wrote: April 29, 2021, 12:04 pm
Northern Raider wrote: April 29, 2021, 11:54 am
radicalraider wrote: April 29, 2021, 11:54 am What minute will we see Jack wightouton a full
We could organise a sweepstake.
I'll take 15'
Ok, lets bracket that into 11th-15th minute.

I'll take 21st-25th minute.
The real value is in the quinella - Jack to launch a general play kick over the sideline and fail to find touch with penalty kick in the same match. I have a feeling....
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

40th to 45th minute for me!
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Northern Raider »

The Nickman wrote: April 29, 2021, 1:12 pm 40th to 45th minute for me!
Then concede a try off the turnover? Sounds like a typical start to the 2nd half.
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by radicalraider »

Dimes wrote: April 29, 2021, 12:48 pm Joey Johns thinks Raiders can win

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/benji- ... 57n70.html

Myself with some of the backline changes and Tarps back in... who knows... might happen
Joey's spot on. If we can't take advantage of our big halves running at their not so big halves we're gna struggle to score.. starlings gotta get his service right too
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by kiwi raider »

Puntings been terrible lately so im chasing BIG odds

Jack to go the 80mins WITHOUT kicking it out on the full.

Will probably put one in to the grandstand in the first minute of golden point

Can i multi those two options up?
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

kiwi raider wrote: April 29, 2021, 1:44 pm Puntings been terrible lately so im chasing BIG odds

Jack to go the 80mins WITHOUT kicking it out on the full.

Will probably put one in to the grandstand in the first minute of golden point

Can i multi those two options up?
No need for the multi... the first leg alone should be in the double digits.
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Mickey_Raider »

I must say that in regards to the last week or so I am not all that heartened listening to the comments from players and coaches whom seem to all share in common:

a) not having answers as to our rubbish second halves; and
b) being overly pleased with themselves about our first half against the Cows.

"a" is concerning for obvious reasons but "b concerns me because I think it is massively overrating the performance therein. We put on some points because the Cows were terrible with their ball control. As soon as they tightened up their handling they steamrolled us. I don't think being up by 12 points against a bottom 6 team when they are playing below even their standards is all that much to crow about. Decent teams in similar circumstances are racking up scores of 40+ I think.

I know it is all just talk and rhetoric but It kind of worries me as it seems to portend an alarming slide back to mediocrity.

Hopefully we restore some hope tonight against the Bunnies.
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by simo »

i know its not fun, but can we just play through the middle and rotate or bench correctly? thanks
Dont delete this GE
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by -PJ- »

There’s no way the boys are starting flat tonight surely..

Joe Picker is blowing the horn.
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by simo »

disappointed its not former raider jarrod croker...
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by Kryptonite »

radicalraider wrote: April 29, 2021, 1:18 pm
Dimes wrote: April 29, 2021, 12:48 pm Joey Johns thinks Raiders can win

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/benji- ... 57n70.html

Myself with some of the backline changes and Tarps back in... who knows... might happen
Joey's spot on. If we can't take advantage of our big halves running at their not so big halves we're gna struggle to score.. starlings gotta get his service right too
i like what the 8th is saying in his article and tbh it offers a ray of light in an otherwise dark shroud
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Re: 2021 Rd 8 V Rabbitohs: Game Day

Post by PerthRaider86 »

Northern Raider wrote: April 29, 2021, 1:07 pm
radicalraider wrote: April 29, 2021, 12:04 pm
Northern Raider wrote: April 29, 2021, 11:54 am
radicalraider wrote: April 29, 2021, 11:54 am What minute will we see Jack wightouton a full
We could organise a sweepstake.
I'll take 15'
Ok, lets bracket that into 11th-15th minute.

I'll take 21st-25th minute.
Ill Take 25th to 30th :cmon
Perth Based Raiders Fan

Cant wait for the Raiders to come back to WA !!!!!
Stupid COVID has stopped this twice now :( :(
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