2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

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Who will win?

Raiders 13+
7
39%
Raiders 1-12
4
22%
Draw
0
No votes
Cowboys 1-12
6
33%
Cowboys 13+
1
6%
 
Total votes: 18

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greeneyed
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2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by greeneyed »

2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

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Canberra Raiders V North Queensland Cowboys
Saturday 24 April 7:35pm
North Queensland Stadium
Gates open: 5:00pm
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox League Channel 502
Radio: ABC, Mix 106.3, 2CC
Weather: Shower or two. Cloudy. High chance of showers. Winds south to southeasterly 20 to 25 km/h. Chance of any rain: 70 per cent. Possible rainfall: 8 to 25 mm Min 21 Max 26

The Raiders are on a two game losing streak, have an unhappy coach, and in Round 7 must head north to face the Cowboys in the humidity and heat of Townsville.

Last round: 2021 Round 6. Parramatta Eels 35 - Canberra Raiders 10. It was embarrassing. It was another big test for the Raiders against a real contender and again they did not pass. If the loss to the Panthers was a reality check, the loss to the Eels was a smack around the head.



More on Round 6: As I saw it

Team news: Josh Hodgson (calf) and Bailey Simonsson (concussion) have been ruled out of the match with injury. Tom Starling takes over the No. 9 jersey, with Siliva Havili filling the role of bench utility. Elliott Whitehead has been named as co-captain in the absence of Hodgson. Sebastian Kris comes in on the wing for Simonsson.

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (bulging disc) has received good news - he won't require surgery. But he'll still be out for some time. Caleb Aekins continues to fill in at No. 1.

Ryan James returns at starting prop, alongside Emre Guler. That sees Ryan Sutton move to lock and Josh Papalii dropped to the bench. Joe Tapine has been dropped to the reserves list, as has Sia Soliola. Corey Horsburgh and Corey Harawira-Naera come in on the bench.

The Cowboys have stuck with the same top 17.

Late changes: The Raiders omitted Matt Frawley and Joe Tapine from their squad of 21 on Friday evening, leaving Matt Timoko and Sia Soliola on the reserves list. The Cowboys cut Peter Hola and Jake Clifford.

Milestones: Raiders forward Siliva Havili will play his 100th NRL match, while Ryan James plays his 150th.

History: The Raiders have won 25 of 44 matches against the North Queensland Cowboys. Fourteen of those wins came in the Cowboys' first decade in competition - while the Cowboys became dominant in the era of Johnathan Thurston. That's now starting to turn around.

The Raiders have won four of the past five matches played between the clubs. In Round 8 of 2018, the Raiders produced their first win in Townsville since 2006 - the 18-8 victory breaking a nine game losing streak in the far north. Canberra backed it up in Round 18, with the Raiders defeating the Cowboys 38-12 at Canberra Stadium. In 2019, the Raiders again won in Townsville, producing a 30-12 victory - before suffering a 22-16 loss in Canberra in Round 11. The Raiders won the only clash between the clubs in 2020 - a narrow 14-12 victory in Townsville. The Raiders have won 10 of 22 games played in North Queensland.


2020 Round 12: Canberra Raiders V North Queensland Cowboys

Form: Raiders: WLWLL
Cowboys: LLLWW

The Cowboys are on back to back wins - against the Tigers (34-30) and Bulldogs (30-18) - but the Tigers and Bulldogs sit at the very bottom of the competition ladder. The Raiders are on back to back losses to teams sitting in the top four, the Panthers and Eels. Both have been heavy losses.

Betting: The Raiders are $1.28 favourites, while the Cowboys are paying $3.75. The Cowboys have 10.5 points start in the line betting. The Cowboys odds shortened after both teams were named, but have firmed slightly for the Raiders as the week has progressed.

Stat attack: The Raiders and Cowboys are teams that do not control possession - and that's showing up in the all the attacking statistics. No team has a lower possession share than the Cowboys, while the Raiders are third lowest in that department. The two teams are in the bottom five for running metres, while the Raiders rank second last for kick return metres.

They're also very conservative in attack. The Cowboys rank last for general play passes, the Raiders second last. The Raiders rank last for offloads, the Cowboys second last. The two teams rank in the top five for dummy half runs. Despite that, both sides still rank high in error counts - the Cowboys rank first in the league for errors and the Raiders third. The Cowboys have the worst completion rate in the competition, while the Raiders are in the bottom four teams for completions. Tackle breaks (ranked seventh) and line breaks (eighth) are helping to save the Raiders' attack, but not the Cowboys (second last).

Both teams are having their share of defensive problems too. The Cowboys rank first for ineffective tackles, the Raiders fourth. They are both in the top six teams for most missed tackles. The Raiders rank third for most running metres conceded, the Cowboys sixth.

None of that is pretty reading for the Raiders.

2021 Season record: Raiders 3 and 3 (9th, -12)
Cowboys 2 and 4 (13th, -89)

Attack: Raiders 19 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked equal 10th on tries scored
Cowboys 17 points and 3 tries scored per match, ranked 13th on tries scored

Defence: Raiders 18 points and 3 tries conceded per match, ranked 9th on fewest tries conceded
Cowboys 32 points and 5 tries conceded per match, ranked equal 14th on fewest tries conceded

Possession: Raiders 47 per cent, Cowboys 45 per cent

Completion rate: Raiders 75 per cent, Cowboys 71 per cent

Running: Raiders 1523 running metres from 173 runs (12 dummy half runs), 146 kick return metres, 548 post contact metres per match
Cowboys 1558 running metres from 167 runs (13 dummy half runs), 181 kick return metres, 525 post contact metres per match

Tackle breaks: Raiders 30, Cowboys 21 per match

Line breaks: Raiders 4, Cowboys 3 per match

Try assists: Raiders 3, Cowboys 2 per match

Line break assists: Raiders 3, Cowboys 2 per match

Offloads: Raiders 7, Cowboys 7 per match

Kicking: Raiders 589 kicking metres from 21 kicks per match
Cowboys 476 kicking metres from 20 kicks per match

Tackling: Raiders 353 made, 31 missed, 18 ineffective per match, 88 per cent tackle efficiency
Cowboys 363 made, 33 missed, 22 ineffective per match, 87 per cent tackle efficiency

Running metres conceded: Raiders 1542, Cowboys 1540 metres per match

Errors: Raiders 12, Cowboys 14 per match

Penalties conceded: Raiders 4, Cowboys 4 per match

Penalties awarded: Raiders 4, Cowboys 3 per match

Set re-starts conceded: Raiders 5, Cowboys 4 per match

Set re-starts awarded: Raiders 4, Cowboys 4 per match

Key match-ups:

Caleb Aekins and Valentine Holmes: Caleb Aekins made his first grade debut in green last week - filling in for the injured Charzne Nicoll-Klokstad - and he impressed with his running game. He's not really a ball player, based on his limited first grade games with the Panthers. But he and Bailey Simonsson did produce a great try saver on Maika Sivo last Saturday night. Obviously, with just one appearance, we can't make too much of his 2021 numbers. Valentine Holmes hasn't exactly set the world on fire with the Cowboys, since returning from a failed attempt to break into the NFL in America. He's probably better on the wing, than at fullback. But he certainly showed with the Sharks that he can be a very dangerous attacking player. This year, he's got two tries, two try assists, four line breaks, and 25 tackle breaks. The Raiders will want to take care in containing him.

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Jack Wighton and Scott Drinkwater: Jack Wighton was Dally M Player of the Year and Five eighth of the Year in 2020 - and shared the Meninga Medal. He's not been in the same form in 2021 - and a significant factor is the problems the Raiders are having in developing combinations in the spine. Wighton will be wanting to turn things around in this match. Scott Drinkwater has alternated between fullback and five eighth in his time at the Cowboys. He played two games in the No. 1 jersey to start 2021, before moving back to five eighth in Round 3. His numbers for this season don't compare too badly in attack. But Wighton is certainly the better defender. Even an out of form Wighton wins this match-up.

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George Williams and Ben Hampton: Ben Hampton has three appearances at half for the Cowboys this year, with two wins to his name. He started his career with the Storm in the halves, but since transferring to the Cowboys he's played mostly on the bench, with games at fullback, centre, wing and five eighth thrown in. Williams is the more creative player, but his form in 2021 has been down on last year. Again, that's probably due to the lack of combination between hooker and halves. Hampton has run more this year, but that's probably the only area where his numbers are in front of Williams. Williams gets this "skin".

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My tip: I'm surprised that that Raiders are such warm favourites in this match. The statistics suggest that the Green Machine should win - but not by a big margin. The Cowboys will come into the game with a bit of confidence, having chalked up back to back wins. They had an awful start to the year, under new coach Todd Payten, but winning is a remarkable tonic, even if it is against lowly ranked opposition. Meanwhile, the Raiders hit a real low point against the Eels last week, with the coach publicly questioning the effort of some individuals in the team. The changes to the Raiders’ line up add to the uncertainty. I guess we will have to see the game plan... and how the players respond. I'll tip the Raiders, but I can't say I have a lot of confidence. Raiders by two.

What they're saying:

Caleb Aekins on his debut in green: "It helps a lot to have Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad there and have someone as experienced as him helping out. The NSW Cup has a lot of the same strategies as first grade so that made it really easy to slot right in. I felt really comfortable, the boys made me feel comfortable. Josh Hodgson came and grabbed me, pulled me aside and told me at the leadership meeting they brought my name up and they were all confident in me. That gave me a lot of confidence going into the game. I've still got a lot of combinations to work on with everyone."

Canberra Raiders

1. Caleb Aekins
2. Sebastian Kris
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Curtis Scott
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Ryan James
9. Tom Starling
10. Emre Guler
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Ryan Sutton

14. Siliva Havili
15. Corey Harawira-Naera
16. Corey Horsburgh
17. Josh Papalii

18. Matt Timoko
19. Sia Soliola

Injury/Suspension
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Neck (TBA)
Bailey Simonsson, Concussion, (Rd 8)
Josh Hodgson, Calf, (Rd 9-10)
Semi Valemei, Hamstring (Rd 8-9)
Sam Williams, Ribs (Rd 8-9)
Albert Hopoate, Shoulder (Rd 11-13)
Harley Smith-Shields, Biceps tendon (Rd 20-22)

North Queensland Cowboys

1. Valentine Holmes
2. Kyle Feldt
3. Justin O’Neill
4. Connelly Lemuelu
5. Murray Taulagi
6. Scott Drinkwater
7. Ben Hampton
8. Coen Hess
9. Reece Robson
10. Jordan McLean
11. Shane Wright
12. Ben Condon
13. Lachlan Burr

14. Jake Granville
15. Mitchell Dunn
16. Francis Molo
17. Corey Jensen

18. Esan Marsters
21. Tom Gilbert

Injury/Suspension
Jason Taumalolo, Hand (Rd 8-10)
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Leg (Rd 10)
Reuben Cotter, Foot (Rd 10-12)

Officials

Referee: Peter Gough
Touch judges: Dave Munro, Nick Morel
Video referee: Matt Noyen

NRL teams: Click here
Junior Representatives teams: Click here

Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #NRLCowboysRaiders

The Greenhouse Hashtags: #WearGreen2021 #FromAllAngles

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Plus follow us on Twitter: @TheGHRaiders and Instagram: @TheGHRaiders
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The Nickman
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

This is going to be a deadset debarkle.
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by -TW- »

Cowboys by 81

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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Raider of d Lost Ark »

Simo hodgo gone
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Raider of d Lost Ark »

Due to injury
Scared Hitless
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Scared Hitless »

Injury may just be the excuse Stick needed. Most on here were calling for three of those four to be axed and if dropping Taps means be'll come back firing, I'm all for it.

Can only hope Ricky had a quiet word in the ears of Raps and Croker as well because we all knew they weren't going anywhere.

I expect us to win but we really need to belt the Cows to get some confidence (and respect) back. A Sea Eagles/Titans type match would be nice.
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by -PJ- »

The whole squad is on notice.
The 17 wearing the jersey this week have a job to do.
No-one is assured of a spot.
We are here to win games.
End of.
3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment..Old Faithful
#emptythetank :shock:
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by RedRaider »

I expect Raps and Kris to improve our kick return meters. Cowboys will test Kris and Aekin under the high ball and after the start to last week's match Raps will be a target as well.
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by zim »

RedRaider wrote: April 20, 2021, 7:26 pm I expect Raps and Kris to improve our kick return meters. Cowboys will test Kris and Aekin under the high ball and after the start to last week's match Raps will be a target as well.
Raps is defending against Feldt who's a big aerial target no matter the opposition. They should be bombing there all night. He only needs to drop one or get beaten on one for them to get a result.
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

zim wrote:
RedRaider wrote: April 20, 2021, 7:26 pm I expect Raps and Kris to improve our kick return meters. Cowboys will test Kris and Aekin under the high ball and after the start to last week's match Raps will be a target as well.
Raps is defending against Feldt who's a big aerial target no matter the opposition. They should be bombing there all night. He only needs to drop one or get beaten on one for them to get a result.
How do you know which side Raps is playing on?

Oh who am I kidding, he’ll be on the wrong side again, just bombing try after try.
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by zim »

The Nickman wrote: April 20, 2021, 9:25 pm
zim wrote:
RedRaider wrote: April 20, 2021, 7:26 pm I expect Raps and Kris to improve our kick return meters. Cowboys will test Kris and Aekin under the high ball and after the start to last week's match Raps will be a target as well.
Raps is defending against Feldt who's a big aerial target no matter the opposition. They should be bombing there all night. He only needs to drop one or get beaten on one for them to get a result.
How do you know which side Raps is playing on?
Oh who am I kidding, he’ll be on the wrong side again, just bombing try after try.
Just had a quiet word with Stick and he let it slip. We've also worked out a system of nods so no one can tell if Hodgson is really injured.

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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Raiders666 »

Should be an easy win
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Bay53 »

The Nickman wrote: April 20, 2021, 1:23 pm This is going to be a deadset debarkle.
You coming to this debarkle Nick?
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

Bay53 wrote: April 21, 2021, 2:03 pm
The Nickman wrote: April 20, 2021, 1:23 pm This is going to be a deadset debarkle.
You coming to this debarkle Nick?
Sure am, eight hour drive each way just to watch this rubbish.
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Azza »

The Nickman wrote: April 21, 2021, 2:37 pm
Bay53 wrote: April 21, 2021, 2:03 pm
The Nickman wrote: April 20, 2021, 1:23 pm This is going to be a deadset debarkle.
You coming to this debarkle Nick?
Sure am, eight hour drive each way just to watch this rubbish.
Your spelling is a debacle.

Cowboys by 67.
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Bay53 »

The Nickman wrote: April 21, 2021, 2:37 pm
Bay53 wrote: April 21, 2021, 2:03 pm
The Nickman wrote: April 20, 2021, 1:23 pm This is going to be a deadset debarkle.
You coming to this debarkle Nick?
Sure am, eight hour drive each way just to watch this rubbish.
Ok, I will send you a message to catch up. I am going up tomorrow morning.
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

Bay53 wrote: April 22, 2021, 7:54 am
The Nickman wrote: April 21, 2021, 2:37 pm
Bay53 wrote: April 21, 2021, 2:03 pm
The Nickman wrote: April 20, 2021, 1:23 pm This is going to be a deadset debarkle.
You coming to this debarkle Nick?
Sure am, eight hour drive each way just to watch this rubbish.
Ok, I will send you a message to catch up. I am going up tomorrow morning.
Mate, that would be sensational. We're staying at Quest as usual, so will have access to most of the city area for the time we're up there.
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Canberra Milk »

Rob of Sportress reckons Hudson was struggling in defence v Eels because he had to compensate for Curtis Scott's indecisiveness. I didn't notice that but is an interesting thought, I will keep an eye out for it this week... not that I expect Cowboys to really test us

Ok this might be famous last words, but come on they are crap... who are their danger men? Ok Reece Robson can be a little dangerous out of dummy half, especially close to the line... Condon seems a big lanky body who can fall over the line.... Holmes is ok but lost his mojo... Drinkwater's stats are similar to an out of form Wighton... Feldt is a good finisher.... there is no Hammer or Taumololo

We should really be able to handle them
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

Mark my words right now... Cowboys will put at least 20 on us, we need our attack to fire accordingly to outscore them.
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by BadnMean »

Canberra Milk wrote: April 22, 2021, 9:18 am Rob of Sportress reckons Hudson was struggling in defence v Eels because he had to compensate for Curtis Scott's indecisiveness. I didn't notice that but is an interesting thought, I will keep an eye out for it this week... not that I expect Cowboys to really test us

Ok this might be famous last words, but come on they are crap... who are their danger men? Ok Reece Robson can be a little dangerous out of dummy half, especially close to the line... Condon seems a big lanky body who can fall over the line.... Holmes is ok but lost his mojo... Drinkwater's stats are similar to an out of form Wighton... Feldt is a good finisher.... there is no Hammer or Taumololo

We should really be able to handle them
Mate I've watched Granville tear us wide open before. There is no end to the amount of plodders we can make worldbeaters if it is one of those years. This game might be a tipping point, Ricky needs a response.
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

Yeah, this whole belief that we're going to head up to Townsville and do it easily has me very worried. I certainly hope the playing group doesn't share the same belief or we'll be in for a LOOOONG night.
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by -TW- »

The Nickman wrote:Yeah, this whole belief that we're going to head up to Townsville and do it easily has me very worried. I certainly hope the playing group doesn't share the same belief or we'll be in for a LOOOONG night.
I'd hope that Ricky has torn shreds off them and they'll be primed for a big showing.

Otherwise I'd be writing us off this season

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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by kiwi raider »

yea with stuarts comments last week and the changes he's made there's no way they'll be turning up half arsed this week
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

kiwi raider wrote: April 22, 2021, 10:50 am yea with stuarts comments last week and the changes he's made there's no way they'll be turning up half arsed this week
All right, guess we'll win easy then.

Can't wait!
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by radicalraider »

The Nickman wrote: April 22, 2021, 10:13 am Yeah, this whole belief that we're going to head up to Townsville and do it easily has me very worried. I certainly hope the playing group doesn't share the same belief or we'll be in for a LOOOONG night.
Don't think the players will be under estimating them. It won't be easy but I think our defense and attitude will get us the W. Expecting a similar performance to the GC game.
Their halves aren't the biggest so I expect Wighton to cross over at least once
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Raiders666 »

The Nickman wrote: April 22, 2021, 9:52 am Mark my words right now... Cowboys will put at least 20 on us, we need our attack to fire accordingly to outscore them.
:roflmao
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Canberra Milk »

I'm more concerned about the humidity. Have we ever played in Nth Qld and *not* looked worn out, fatigued? And in Darwin vs Eels with similar weather, we had similar problem. Started well then got fatigued out of the game
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Canberra Milk »

BadnMean wrote: April 22, 2021, 9:58 am
Canberra Milk wrote: April 22, 2021, 9:18 am Rob of Sportress reckons Hudson was struggling in defence v Eels because he had to compensate for Curtis Scott's indecisiveness. I didn't notice that but is an interesting thought, I will keep an eye out for it this week... not that I expect Cowboys to really test us

Ok this might be famous last words, but come on they are crap... who are their danger men? Ok Reece Robson can be a little dangerous out of dummy half, especially close to the line... Condon seems a big lanky body who can fall over the line.... Holmes is ok but lost his mojo... Drinkwater's stats are similar to an out of form Wighton... Feldt is a good finisher.... there is no Hammer or Taumololo

We should really be able to handle them
Mate I've watched Granville tear us wide open before. There is no end to the amount of plodders we can make worldbeaters if it is one of those years. This game might be a tipping point, Ricky needs a response.
Lol true. It may not be one of those years yet though. While we looked bad vs Parra, they are still a top team and far above the Cows...

(I'm really paving the way for a Cowboys hiding here aren't I lol)
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Canberra Milk »

Sorry for the triple post.
The Nickman wrote: April 22, 2021, 10:13 am Yeah, this whole belief that we're going to head up to Townsville and do it easily has me very worried. I certainly hope the playing group doesn't share the same belief or we'll be in for a LOOOONG night.
But don't you think good teams like the Storm and Panthers, they *know* they're better than the opposition, and play accordingly? They think they're going to win, and they do. You don't want to underestimate them, but I think the attitude they have is, yeah they're good and we're wary of them, but we're better
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by zim »

Canberra Milk wrote: April 22, 2021, 9:18 am Rob of Sportress reckons Hudson was struggling in defence v Eels because he had to compensate for Curtis Scott's indecisiveness. I didn't notice that but is an interesting thought, I will keep an eye out for it this week... not that I expect Cowboys to really test us

Ok this might be famous last words, but come on they are crap... who are their danger men? Ok Reece Robson can be a little dangerous out of dummy half, especially close to the line... Condon seems a big lanky body who can fall over the line.... Holmes is ok but lost his mojo... Drinkwater's stats are similar to an out of form Wighton... Feldt is a good finisher.... there is no Hammer or Taumololo

We should really be able to handle them
Isn't it usually the other way around? The outside man has trouble or causes problems for himself by compensating or overreading the situation on the inside?
I'd think the only way Curtis can give Young trouble would be to fly in front of him or come charging out of the line and leave him stranded and needing to adjust, but I don't think we saw that.
Raiders666
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Raiders666 »

I think a few of you haven't watched the Cowboys play much this year haha
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-TW-
Mal Meninga
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by -TW- »

Yeah exactly, they scrapped to a victory over a tigers team that gave them a headstart, and flogged a Bulldogs team that will be flat out beating anyone.

If we lose we've beaten ourselves, and I'd happily red pen us in terms of being a contender

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afgtnk
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by afgtnk »

The Nickman wrote: April 22, 2021, 9:52 am Mark my words right now... Cowboys will put at least 20 on us, we need our attack to fire accordingly to outscore them.
Ohh I've marked them.
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Re: 2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by Knotincelly22 »

If the Raiders win this week, and lose to Souths next week, they'll be 1-3 at Home and 3-1 Away. I don't know what that means but it's probably Croker's fault.
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2021 Rd 7 V Cowboys: Game Day

Post by The Nickman »

We haven’t been good at home in years now.

And honestly, I blame the Canberra-based fans. Us away mob are doing our job, lift your **** game, locals.
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