Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

Post by ChampionBets »

Thanks to you guys at thegh.com.au for allowing us to post Steve Green's Raiders thoughts this season. Here's a small preview of the season and we'll be following this up with his game previews each week of the season. Thanks in advance for reading, look forward to the comments!

2021 Round 1: Canberra Raiders v Wests Tigers

The Raiders have named a strong team here, showing just how much depth they have in 2021. Even without Horsburgh and Harawira-Naera lining up in the middle, they still have so many forwards to choose from that the highly promising Guler looks set to miss out on selection.

Out wide, Seb Kris has been given first shot at taking Croker’s spot. While some may feel they had better options, he looked good in the trial and has apparently been training very well during the pre-season.

With Hodson, CNK, Wighton and G Williams lining up, this amazing spine will be together for the first time in 6 months, playing at home in front of a crowd tipped to reach 20k.

I am expecting the Raiders to come out firing, being led by the likes of Tapine, Papi, Lui, Young and Sutton. I am also keen to see what Ryan James can do off the bench and see the development of Simonsson out wide – after such a long layoff he looked like he had bulked up and could be a real powerhouse winger for the Raiders.

But I think they are about to run into a fired up Wests Tigers outfit that may have finally developed the hard edge that Coach McGuire has been searching for.

While the Tigers will be without Doueihi, I think new recruits James Roberts and James Tamou will bring with them the confidence Wests need.

Liddle has looked great at 9 in the pre-season and will relish being the front runner to be starting 9 for the year. Brooks was fantastic in the trial and fullback Daine Laurie has also quickly shown what an astute buy he is for Wests.

With the Leilua brothers, Nofoaluma and Garner, Wests have the talent to trouble this Raiders outfit and while I think the Raiders will win in a thriller, I like the head start on offer for Wests Tigers in this one.

Predicted score
Raiders 22
Wests Tigers 18
Last edited by ChampionBets on March 12, 2021, 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

Post by The Nickman »

It's "Wests Tigers", mate.
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The Nickman wrote: March 12, 2021, 12:25 pm It's "Wests Tigers", mate.
thanks, fixed.

any opinion on the game?
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Post by zim »

This is much more of a danger game than it has been in the past. If our defense isn't switched on they have the speed and offloads to put some points on but we should be able to expose them up the middle. We've got a better pack and our spine is far superior.
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Bookies have moved the line slightly this week from -9.5 to -8.5.
Most recent move on Head-to-Head is 1.29 out to 1.37. It's not significant given it's still 48 hours to game time but the money might keep coming.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

Post by The Nickman »

ChampionBets wrote: March 12, 2021, 12:49 pm
The Nickman wrote: March 12, 2021, 12:25 pm It's "Wests Tigers", mate.
thanks, fixed.

any opinion on the game?
Good writeup. I think the Raiders will win a bit more comfortably than many people are predicting, but it's Round 1, so I understand the hesitation.
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2021 Round 2: Cronulla Sharks v Canberra Raiders

Sharks looked good against the Dragons, with Brailey and Kennedy playing great at 9 and 1. Townsend kicked well, while Moylan looked classy with ball in hand.

While we knew Sharks had great go forward and attack, it is clear they have done a lot of work on their defence after last year’s capitulation in tackling. Though will be interesting to see how that defence holds up on a dry track against a Raiders outfit with threats across the park.

The Sharks completed at an amazing 88% and if they can do that again, they will be right in this game…however once again, the Raiders fast moving defence will be a lot more challenging that what the Dragons served up in the rain.

The Sharks forwards shared the work around, but Rudolph was a standout. After poor 2020 performances, Graham and Woods looked lean and played well.

The Raiders started very slowly, but once they got in their groove they looked great.

Out wide their outside backs were terrific, which would be pleasing for Coach Stuard, because that was one area where I thought the Raiders could struggle.

Wighton and Hodgson did not have to do much, so that should worry the Sharks, as you would think the Raiders will be able to score a lot of points this year.

Ryan James was great on debut, while Hudson Young is finally getting the credit he deserves…and Tapine continued on with his stellar 2020 form.

Away from home and playing a Sharks team that will be feeling confident, I think this game will be a thriller.

Tempted to back the Sharks with the plus, but with the Sharks form variance of 2020 and the Raiders second half performance, there is not enough value to justify a bet on this one.

Predicted score:
Raiders 24
Sharks 20
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Cronulla 2.75
Raiders 1.45

Line is Raiders -5.5
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Decent result with the call last night... back Thursday/Friday with the preview of Raiders v Warriors.
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2021 Round 3 Canberra Raiders v New Zealand Warriors

The Raiders will welcome back their co-captain Jarrod Croker this weekend, and as a Raiders fan it does pain me to say it… but I am not sure he is the best man for the job right now.

I am not saying this because Seb Kris has played a few good games, but Croker’s 2020 form was bad. If he were not the captain and goal-kicker, he definitely would have been dropped at some point.

However, this Raiders line up does look incredibly strong. While they played poorly in the second half last week, they showed their defence is great at scrambling.

Ryan James is showing why I was so excited by his recruitment, while Hudson Young is one of the form forwards of the competition. Scott is showing why Stuart recruited him and even Rapana is turning back the clock to produce some career best form.

As for the Warriors, I think they are playing better than the market is giving them credit for and if they were not playing in Canberra this week, they might be a value bet.

While they have lost Chanel Harris-Tavita and Euan Aitken to injury and Jamayne Taunoa-Brown to suspension, they have solid replacements for all these guys. Sean Sullivan has always deserved a shot at starting 7 in the NRL in my view, while Pompey showed his ability to finish a try last week. And the Warriors forwards are choc-full of depth, with Kane Evans a very handy replacement.

While the Raiders are playing well, they have beaten Wests and Sharks to date this year, so I think the Warriors are a chance of springing an ambush here.

The Warriors were great against the Titans in Round 1, and against a Knights team that I rate highly, they were five minutes away from pulling off another upset (noting that Harris-Tavita was playing injured for a big part of the second half).

I think 10.5 is too big of a line here, and like the Warriors for a small bet.

Predicted Score
Raiders 19
Warriors 12
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Line now Raiders -9.5 and H2H price has drifted to 1.28.
Good luck if you're getting involved...
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Crazy odds for the Warriors. Probably the best value of the round.

We are known to struggle against them and our home form has been less than stellar of late.
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Raiders 1-12 is 3.20 on SB

Seems like solid money to me

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Yeah, that's pretty good!

$5 for Warriors 1-12 though. They're up against it, but that's a good price.
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Well done if you got involved in the Warriors game.

Round 4 preview coming in next couple of days.

Price right now:

Titans 2.35
Raiders 1.60


Line is Raiders -4.
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2021 Round 4 Gold Coast Titans v Canberra Raiders

The Titans are going from strength to strength and the only concern I have is their lack of a quality opposition so far this year.

While they looked impressive against the Broncos and the Cowboys, both teams are well below the quality of the Raiders. And when they played a well drilled and disciplined Warriors team in Round 1, they were comprehensively beaten.

But Brimson, Fifita, Big Tino and guys like Sami and Thompson are always dangerous with ball in hand, while guys like Wallace and Fotuaika do the hard stuff in the middle.

The Raiders will be without Tapine and Scott here, while both James and Kris must be in some doubt after their heavy concussions last weekend….so perhaps a few more changes to come.

The game being moved out of QLD helps the Raiders, but I had thought this as likely to occur and I still think the Titans are right in this match and I like the head start on offer.

The Raiders beat a hapless Wests at home, scraped home against the Sharks due to poor kicking from Townsend and then lost to the Warriors (albeit following a horror injury run).

So although I have high hopes for the Raiders in 2021, they have not hit their straps yet and need guys like Papalli, Croker, Lui, Wighton and CNK to hit their best form before I start betting on them to cover lines against teams like the Titans.

Predicted score
Titans 18
Raiders 18
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2021 Round 5 Penrith Panthers V Canberra Raiders

I think the Panthers form is being inflated by the softness of their draw.

While they have piled on the points in 3 of their games, it is important to recognise that these three teams are all winless and ranked in the bottom 3 of the ladder (Cowboys, Manly and Bulldogs).

When they did play a quality team, the Storm nearly beat them in Sydney – despite the Storm missing a handful of their best players that night.

So while the Panthers fans have every right to be confident, I am not so sure the line here should be as big as it is.

The Raiders have been clunky in attack, but their only loss came off a horror injury toll against the Warriors…and even then they came within an inch of winning it on the siren.

The Raiders have shown they are full of big players, often stepping up against the likes of the Roosters and Storm in recent years, and I think they will back their defence to contain the Panthers here.

With Tapine back at 13, this Raiders pack is extremely strong and with the Panthers still missing Koiroisau and Edwards, I like the juicy plus points in what should be a close encounter.

Predicted score
Panthers 19
Raiders 18
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2021 Round 6 Canberra Raiders V Parramatta Eels

The Raiders have suffered a big blow with the loss of their fullback, and while CNK’s replacement (Aekins) is a very solid back up to have, the Raiders look much weaker without their ever-reliable.

The Raiders outside backs like Scott, Simonsson and Croker all need to step up and perform, with all three offering little in attack so far. In the forwards, Soliola and Havili need to do more with their time on the field.

Coach Stuart also needs to sort out the Raiders hooker rotation, with Starling being wasted on the bench for so long and Hodgson ineffective at times.

Overall, the Raiders are in worse form than I thought they would be based on their squad.

The Eels however, have a reputation for starting the year extremely well and 2021 is no exception.

Led by Paulo, Brown, Matterson, Papali’i and RCG, the Eels forward pack have been looking a little stronger than what the Raiders dished up last week against the Panthers.

Although Wighton and Williams are both playing well, Gutherson and Mahoney are also among the best two players in the competition at the moment, so I think the Eels are right in this match – despite the Raiders home ground advantage.

I think this will be a thriller and will come down to who can nail the field goal.

Predicted score
Raiders 18
Eels 18
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Post by The Nickman »

I think the algorithm for which you predict scores is broken. Three straight weeks of everybody getting 18.
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The Nickman wrote: April 16, 2021, 10:35 am I think the algorithm for which you predict scores is broken. Three straight weeks of everybody getting 18.
Something different coming this week Nickman :)
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2021 Round 7 North Queensland Cowboys V Canberra Raiders

A few weeks ago the Raiders look good for a top 4 spot, whereas the Cowboys were favourites for the spoon. However off back to back wins to the Cowboys and the Raiders’ worst performance in a year, the Cowboys fans would be slightly confident of an ambush here.

Holmes is starting to put together some classy touches, while unheralded guys like Taulagi, Condon and Molo are producing good performances under Payten. Even Hess played well last week, showing why he should never play on the edge again. With older guys like Hampton, O’Neil, Granville playing the kind of smart footy that Payten is asking of his squad, the Cowboys will force the Raiders into an arm wrestle.

And so far in 2021, the Raiders have lost their fair share of arm-wrestles… so Coach Stuart has starting dropping guys and promoting from reserve grade. I really like the inclusion of Corey Harawira-Naera and Corey Horsburgh on the bench, with both guys proving a handful in reserve grade. James will also be a boost back in the starting side. Tapine and Hodgson are senior players to get dropped, so will be interesting to see how they respond and how the squad handles such ruthlessness.

I like the Raiders squad overall, though I am a little concerned about the form of guys like Croker out wide and think the likes of Drinkwater, Holmes and Feldt will be hard to contain. However the Raiders string of losses has come against teams like the Panthers and Eels, whereas the Cowboys have beaten Wests and the Bulldogs in recent weeks. So, when class of opposition is factored in, I think the Raiders will bounce back here and win by a few tries.

Predicted score
Raiders 26
Cowboys 12
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Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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2021 Round 8 Canberra Raiders V South Sydney Rabbitohs

Raiders 2.76
Rabbitohs 1.47
Raiders +6.5/Rabbitohs -6.5


The Raiders of 2021 have started to resemble the “Faders” that would continually blow big leads. In recent years they shook off this reputation with a Grand Final appearance and two preliminary final appearances, but there were danger signs against the Cowboys. Against a pack that I would rate as close to the worst in the competition, the Cowboys started dominating the Raiders in the second half and the Raiders had no answers for the energy and enthusiasm.

However, while many are now claiming Ricky Stuart cannot coach and the Raiders Premiership window has closed, I remember a few other bold statements being made by pundits in recent weeks:
  • After Manly went 0 from 4 this year, many were calling for Coach Hassler to be sacked
    Many said Doggies would not win a game all year
    The Cowboys were a complete basket case and were favourites for the spoon
In a few short weeks a lot of that has changed and these teams now have some hope. My point is, things can change very fast and there is no reason why the Raiders cannot turn around their form.

The Raiders are not the first team to run out of energy up in Townsville during the second half, so back on home on a crisp Autumn night should suit them much better. They have a low injury toll and amazing depth, so although Croker and Hodgson are injured and Papalii is being ‘rested’, I still think this is strong Raiders squad. In many ways, Starling for Hodgson and Kris for Croker may speed up the Raiders play and give them the style they need to spark their attack. Up front, while Papalii is an elite prop and the Raiders will need him firing if they are genuine contenders, the Raiders still have an incredibly strong forward pack and I see no reason why they cannot get on top of Souths at home tomorrow night.

Although Souths were amazing in the second half against the Titans, I think a lot of that came from horrible Titans defence. Marshall was given far too much time with the ball and he tore them to shreds with some pretty simply plays. And although Souths scoring 40 might show Souths attack is still dangerous without Latrell, the conceding of 30 points shows Souths are still vulnerable if the Raiders halves get their act together.

At home, with backs against the wall and a strong squad, I think this match will be the one where the Raiders turn around their season with a narrow, but important win.

Predicted score
Raiders 20
Souths 18
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Can’t go with you on this one Greeny, old friend.
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2021 Round 9 Canberra Raiders V Newcastle Knights

Over the last 4 weeks, the Knights defence has fallen to pieces. From Round 1 to 4, the Knights had less missed tackles than any other team (79 in four games). Since then (from Round 5 – 8), the Knights have missed 137 tackles. That is the third worst in the competition.

While player attitude could be a problem, I think the variance in the strength of the draw is the core issue driving such wild swings.

In the past month, the Knights have played Titans, Sharks, Panthers and Roosters. Over the course of the season, these teams are among the top of the list in terms of tackle breaks (i.e. the Panthers (2nd), Titans (4th) and Roosters (5th).

Whereas earlier in the year the Knights were playing against the likes of the Bulldogs (16th in tackle breaks), Dragons (14th in tackle breaks) and Warriors (11th in tackle breaks).

While this does not excuse the Knights drop off in defence, it does show that rather it being purely an attitude problem, the past month has seen them play against some impressive attacking teams. Unfortunately for the Knights, playing a Raiders team with its backs against the wall in a small country town, is not an easy assignment.

While the Raiders defended poorly at times out wide, overall, it was a very spirited affair, and I am expecting the Green Machine to come out and try to squash the media rumour mill about their being disharmony in the squad.

However Ricky Stuart needs to get his bench rotation sorted. For a team that keeps running out of puff in the second half, he often leaves a bench forward sitting on the pine for far too long. Last weekend James played only 23 minutes and Soliola only played 9 minutes.

I can see no reason why Tapine shouldn’t be getting at least 60 minutes a game, while guys like CHN should be getting less than 80 after his brain explosion penalties and Hudson Young’s minutes should be less given his consistent defensive issues on the fringe.

On my ratings these teams match up quite well at present and although I give the Raiders a slight home advantage, there is too much doubt about the mental state of guys Tapine, Papallii and G Williams for me to have a bet in this one.

Predicted score
Raiders 22
Knights 16
Last edited by ChampionBets on May 6, 2021, 7:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Knights 0?
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Post by Billy Walker »

Knights - 23?
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Post by The Nickman »

Knowing Steve Green like I do, it'll be 18.
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Apologies guys, fixed.

Predicted score
Raiders 22
Knights 16


And post updated with a couple more paragraphs.
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