Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

Post by ChampionBets »

Thanks to you guys at thegh.com.au for allowing us to post Steve Green's Raiders thoughts this season. Here's a small preview of the season and we'll be following this up with his game previews each week of the season. Thanks in advance for reading, look forward to the comments!

2021 Round 1: Canberra Raiders v Wests Tigers

The Raiders have named a strong team here, showing just how much depth they have in 2021. Even without Horsburgh and Harawira-Naera lining up in the middle, they still have so many forwards to choose from that the highly promising Guler looks set to miss out on selection.

Out wide, Seb Kris has been given first shot at taking Croker’s spot. While some may feel they had better options, he looked good in the trial and has apparently been training very well during the pre-season.

With Hodson, CNK, Wighton and G Williams lining up, this amazing spine will be together for the first time in 6 months, playing at home in front of a crowd tipped to reach 20k.

I am expecting the Raiders to come out firing, being led by the likes of Tapine, Papi, Lui, Young and Sutton. I am also keen to see what Ryan James can do off the bench and see the development of Simonsson out wide – after such a long layoff he looked like he had bulked up and could be a real powerhouse winger for the Raiders.

But I think they are about to run into a fired up Wests Tigers outfit that may have finally developed the hard edge that Coach McGuire has been searching for.

While the Tigers will be without Doueihi, I think new recruits James Roberts and James Tamou will bring with them the confidence Wests need.

Liddle has looked great at 9 in the pre-season and will relish being the front runner to be starting 9 for the year. Brooks was fantastic in the trial and fullback Daine Laurie has also quickly shown what an astute buy he is for Wests.

With the Leilua brothers, Nofoaluma and Garner, Wests have the talent to trouble this Raiders outfit and while I think the Raiders will win in a thriller, I like the head start on offer for Wests Tigers in this one.

Predicted score
Raiders 22
Wests Tigers 18
Last edited by ChampionBets on March 12, 2021, 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

Post by The Nickman »

It's "Wests Tigers", mate.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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The Nickman wrote: March 12, 2021, 12:25 pm It's "Wests Tigers", mate.
thanks, fixed.

any opinion on the game?
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

Post by zim »

This is much more of a danger game than it has been in the past. If our defense isn't switched on they have the speed and offloads to put some points on but we should be able to expose them up the middle. We've got a better pack and our spine is far superior.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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Bookies have moved the line slightly this week from -9.5 to -8.5.
Most recent move on Head-to-Head is 1.29 out to 1.37. It's not significant given it's still 48 hours to game time but the money might keep coming.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

Post by The Nickman »

ChampionBets wrote: March 12, 2021, 12:49 pm
The Nickman wrote: March 12, 2021, 12:25 pm It's "Wests Tigers", mate.
thanks, fixed.

any opinion on the game?
Good writeup. I think the Raiders will win a bit more comfortably than many people are predicting, but it's Round 1, so I understand the hesitation.
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2021 Round 2: Cronulla Sharks v Canberra Raiders

Sharks looked good against the Dragons, with Brailey and Kennedy playing great at 9 and 1. Townsend kicked well, while Moylan looked classy with ball in hand.

While we knew Sharks had great go forward and attack, it is clear they have done a lot of work on their defence after last year’s capitulation in tackling. Though will be interesting to see how that defence holds up on a dry track against a Raiders outfit with threats across the park.

The Sharks completed at an amazing 88% and if they can do that again, they will be right in this game…however once again, the Raiders fast moving defence will be a lot more challenging that what the Dragons served up in the rain.

The Sharks forwards shared the work around, but Rudolph was a standout. After poor 2020 performances, Graham and Woods looked lean and played well.

The Raiders started very slowly, but once they got in their groove they looked great.

Out wide their outside backs were terrific, which would be pleasing for Coach Stuard, because that was one area where I thought the Raiders could struggle.

Wighton and Hodgson did not have to do much, so that should worry the Sharks, as you would think the Raiders will be able to score a lot of points this year.

Ryan James was great on debut, while Hudson Young is finally getting the credit he deserves…and Tapine continued on with his stellar 2020 form.

Away from home and playing a Sharks team that will be feeling confident, I think this game will be a thriller.

Tempted to back the Sharks with the plus, but with the Sharks form variance of 2020 and the Raiders second half performance, there is not enough value to justify a bet on this one.

Predicted score:
Raiders 24
Sharks 20
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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Cronulla 2.75
Raiders 1.45

Line is Raiders -5.5
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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Decent result with the call last night... back Thursday/Friday with the preview of Raiders v Warriors.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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2021 Round 3 Canberra Raiders v New Zealand Warriors

The Raiders will welcome back their co-captain Jarrod Croker this weekend, and as a Raiders fan it does pain me to say it… but I am not sure he is the best man for the job right now.

I am not saying this because Seb Kris has played a few good games, but Croker’s 2020 form was bad. If he were not the captain and goal-kicker, he definitely would have been dropped at some point.

However, this Raiders line up does look incredibly strong. While they played poorly in the second half last week, they showed their defence is great at scrambling.

Ryan James is showing why I was so excited by his recruitment, while Hudson Young is one of the form forwards of the competition. Scott is showing why Stuart recruited him and even Rapana is turning back the clock to produce some career best form.

As for the Warriors, I think they are playing better than the market is giving them credit for and if they were not playing in Canberra this week, they might be a value bet.

While they have lost Chanel Harris-Tavita and Euan Aitken to injury and Jamayne Taunoa-Brown to suspension, they have solid replacements for all these guys. Sean Sullivan has always deserved a shot at starting 7 in the NRL in my view, while Pompey showed his ability to finish a try last week. And the Warriors forwards are choc-full of depth, with Kane Evans a very handy replacement.

While the Raiders are playing well, they have beaten Wests and Sharks to date this year, so I think the Warriors are a chance of springing an ambush here.

The Warriors were great against the Titans in Round 1, and against a Knights team that I rate highly, they were five minutes away from pulling off another upset (noting that Harris-Tavita was playing injured for a big part of the second half).

I think 10.5 is too big of a line here, and like the Warriors for a small bet.

Predicted Score
Raiders 19
Warriors 12
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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Line now Raiders -9.5 and H2H price has drifted to 1.28.
Good luck if you're getting involved...
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

Post by Seiffert82 »

Crazy odds for the Warriors. Probably the best value of the round.

We are known to struggle against them and our home form has been less than stellar of late.
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Raiders 1-12 is 3.20 on SB

Seems like solid money to me

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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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Yeah, that's pretty good!

$5 for Warriors 1-12 though. They're up against it, but that's a good price.
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

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Well done if you got involved in the Warriors game.

Round 4 preview coming in next couple of days.

Price right now:

Titans 2.35
Raiders 1.60


Line is Raiders -4.
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2021 Round 4 Gold Coast Titans v Canberra Raiders

The Titans are going from strength to strength and the only concern I have is their lack of a quality opposition so far this year.

While they looked impressive against the Broncos and the Cowboys, both teams are well below the quality of the Raiders. And when they played a well drilled and disciplined Warriors team in Round 1, they were comprehensively beaten.

But Brimson, Fifita, Big Tino and guys like Sami and Thompson are always dangerous with ball in hand, while guys like Wallace and Fotuaika do the hard stuff in the middle.

The Raiders will be without Tapine and Scott here, while both James and Kris must be in some doubt after their heavy concussions last weekend….so perhaps a few more changes to come.

The game being moved out of QLD helps the Raiders, but I had thought this as likely to occur and I still think the Titans are right in this match and I like the head start on offer.

The Raiders beat a hapless Wests at home, scraped home against the Sharks due to poor kicking from Townsend and then lost to the Warriors (albeit following a horror injury run).

So although I have high hopes for the Raiders in 2021, they have not hit their straps yet and need guys like Papalli, Croker, Lui, Wighton and CNK to hit their best form before I start betting on them to cover lines against teams like the Titans.

Predicted score
Titans 18
Raiders 18
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2021 Round 5 Penrith Panthers V Canberra Raiders

I think the Panthers form is being inflated by the softness of their draw.

While they have piled on the points in 3 of their games, it is important to recognise that these three teams are all winless and ranked in the bottom 3 of the ladder (Cowboys, Manly and Bulldogs).

When they did play a quality team, the Storm nearly beat them in Sydney – despite the Storm missing a handful of their best players that night.

So while the Panthers fans have every right to be confident, I am not so sure the line here should be as big as it is.

The Raiders have been clunky in attack, but their only loss came off a horror injury toll against the Warriors…and even then they came within an inch of winning it on the siren.

The Raiders have shown they are full of big players, often stepping up against the likes of the Roosters and Storm in recent years, and I think they will back their defence to contain the Panthers here.

With Tapine back at 13, this Raiders pack is extremely strong and with the Panthers still missing Koiroisau and Edwards, I like the juicy plus points in what should be a close encounter.

Predicted score
Panthers 19
Raiders 18
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2021 Round 6 Canberra Raiders V Parramatta Eels

The Raiders have suffered a big blow with the loss of their fullback, and while CNK’s replacement (Aekins) is a very solid back up to have, the Raiders look much weaker without their ever-reliable.

The Raiders outside backs like Scott, Simonsson and Croker all need to step up and perform, with all three offering little in attack so far. In the forwards, Soliola and Havili need to do more with their time on the field.

Coach Stuart also needs to sort out the Raiders hooker rotation, with Starling being wasted on the bench for so long and Hodgson ineffective at times.

Overall, the Raiders are in worse form than I thought they would be based on their squad.

The Eels however, have a reputation for starting the year extremely well and 2021 is no exception.

Led by Paulo, Brown, Matterson, Papali’i and RCG, the Eels forward pack have been looking a little stronger than what the Raiders dished up last week against the Panthers.

Although Wighton and Williams are both playing well, Gutherson and Mahoney are also among the best two players in the competition at the moment, so I think the Eels are right in this match – despite the Raiders home ground advantage.

I think this will be a thriller and will come down to who can nail the field goal.

Predicted score
Raiders 18
Eels 18
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Re: Canberra Raiders 2021 Previews with Steve Green

Post by The Nickman »

I think the algorithm for which you predict scores is broken. Three straight weeks of everybody getting 18.
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