2021 Canberra Raiders draw

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Bay53
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by Bay53 »

Gee we become the Broncos in the later part of the season with a run home of Friday, Thursday, Friday, Friday, Thursday.

Our last weekend game is July 31. Sure that has never happened before.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by Bay53 »

gangrenous wrote: November 26, 2020, 12:42 pm
Bay53 wrote: Games played against -

Top eight: 12
Top four: 7
Bottom eight: 12
Bottom four: 5
greeneyed wrote: November 26, 2020, 10:09 am Presumably it is top 4 based on the H&A season not the 4 prelim finalists - it is only possible for us to play 6 games against Prelim finalists. We play 4. (Storm twice, Penrith and Souths once - obviously we don't play ourselves)
Numbers still don’t seem to check out. If we play Panthers and Parra once then that’s only 6 against top 4 by my count.
We play Parra twice. Rounds 6 and 19.
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greeneyed
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by greeneyed »

Makaveli wrote: November 26, 2020, 11:02 am Love how the wooden spooners still somehow get a thousand Thursday and Friday night games
FTA TV games in 2021... versus 2020 ladder position...

16. Broncos 15
3. Eels 15
2. Storm 14
1. Panthers 13
6. Rabbitohs 13
4. Roosters 12
11. Wests Tigers 11
12. Dragons 10
13. Sea Eagles 10
7. Knights 9
14. Cowboys 9
5. Raiders 7
8. Sharks 6
9. Titans 6
15. Bulldogs 5
10. Warriors 3

https://www.reddit.com/r/nrl/comments/k ... &context=3
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gangrenous
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by gangrenous »

Bay53 wrote:
gangrenous wrote: November 26, 2020, 12:42 pm
Bay53 wrote: Games played against -

Top eight: 12
Top four: 7
Bottom eight: 12
Bottom four: 5
greeneyed wrote: November 26, 2020, 10:09 am Presumably it is top 4 based on the H&A season not the 4 prelim finalists - it is only possible for us to play 6 games against Prelim finalists. We play 4. (Storm twice, Penrith and Souths once - obviously we don't play ourselves)
Numbers still don’t seem to check out. If we play Panthers and Parra once then that’s only 6 against top 4 by my count.
We play Parra twice. Rounds 6 and 19.
Cheers, I read the played twice list two times and still managed to miss Eels both times.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by RedRaider »

BadnMean wrote: November 26, 2020, 10:50 am We play Storm x2 and Chooks x2. Doesn't seem that easy.

Of course plenty of other teams will play them x2 as well.

There's always a couple of teams that dramatically improve and a couple that slide away anyway.

Is Thursday a FTA slot? We have 5 of those. Depends how they are handled but there could be a few short turnarounds on them. Those are hardest to handle if you play good teams. Just checked- home to Souffs, away to Eels and Manly at Brooky off 5 day turnarounds. All 3 are contenders and physical teams- and I expect all of them to be in around the top 6, if not the top 4. Coaches and conditioning staff managing those games will be key. They'll be jockeying with us for those finals spots so dropping 2 of those games would hurt.

The run home is pretty tough- Storm, Sea Eagles, Chooks + Who knows what warriors will be like.
I thought the NRL was reducing the number of 5 day turn arounds. As you say we have 3 for season 2021:
24/4 v Cowboys then 29/4 v Souths. July will be interesting: 3/7 v Titans then 8/7 v Manly and 17/7 v Sharks then 22/7 v Eels.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by Botman »

Looks a pretty balanced draw for us. Of course teams change dramatically year to year, so one team being good or bad this year is not assurance they'll be that way next year. But im not seeing any murders row period
Between rd 8 - 12 is probably the toughest month of footy.

Short turn arounds to penrith, parra and Bunnies arent ideal
But the bunnies game is a home game, and we stay home with a 9 day break between it and the Knights game, so that's probably a wash in the end
Never on the road or at home for more than 2 weeks in a row

All in all it's a draw that we should be able to manage fairly comfortably and keep wins ticking over. We'll have high and low periods of the season for sure and certain, but nothing there that we need to be concerned about.
CREATE PROCEDURE BotMan_Post AS
SELECT * FROM Previous_Post
EXEC quote_post
WHERE UserName = 'Aknalkfgnaa' OR 'Yeah Raiders' OR 'Billy B'
EXEC RAND(good_grief; cheak_notes; uh82cit;)

GO;
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by -PJ- »

bonehead wrote: November 26, 2020, 10:30 am
Bay53 wrote:Lots of travel early on. Gold Coast for Easter Weekend, Townsville for the ANZAC Day weekend, Brisbane for Magic Round in May and Perth at the end of May.

Sadly I think Europe will be off the agenda first half of next year, good opportunity to get around the country.
likely already be at Kirra for Easter so that works well.

should make rd1 also plus a few Saturday options always help for travel.

Peej, rd20 old chum.

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31st July boner..locked.

I may look at few Sydney games as well.

I need to get out more.
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Bay53
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by Bay53 »

Botman wrote: November 26, 2020, 1:13 pm All in all it's a draw that we should be able to manage fairly comfortably and keep wins ticking over. We'll have high and low periods of the season for sure and certain, but nothing there that we need to be concerned about.
Agree, it is a draw where if we are good enough to make the top 4 (which I think is a very realistic aim) the draw is not going to be the thing that prevents it.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by Bay53 »

Bay53 wrote: November 26, 2020, 10:24 am Lots of travel early on. Gold Coast for Easter Weekend, Townsville for the ANZAC Day weekend, Brisbane for Magic Round in May and Perth at the end of May.

Sadly I think Europe will be off the agenda first half of next year, good opportunity to get around the country.
Perth is actually the Reconciliation Day public holiday in Canberra too so another travel on long weekend (for us - its not a long weekend in Perth)
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by -PJ- »

A game in Sydney on a Satd night would be nice..

I’ve been promising MrsPJ and PJjnr a trip to Sydney with a Raiders game for me and retail therapy for her.

Ain’t happening again in 21.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

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-PJ- wrote: November 26, 2020, 1:55 pm A game in Sydney on a Satd night would be nice..

I’ve been promising MrsPJ and PJjnr a trip to Sydney with a Raiders game for me and retail therapy for her.

Ain’t happening again in 21.
Their shops do open Sundays.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by Bay53 »

Hopefully it will be changed to 100% well before we need to worry about it, but it was announced today that Manuka Oval and Canberra Stadium can move to 65% of capacity from next Wednesday.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by -TW- »

And I was straight in to get tickets for the T20 next Friday as I'd missed out originally

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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by -PJ- »

Bay53 wrote: November 26, 2020, 2:35 pm
-PJ- wrote: November 26, 2020, 1:55 pm A game in Sydney on a Satd night would be nice..

I’ve been promising MrsPJ and PJjnr a trip to Sydney with a Raiders game for me and retail therapy for her.

Ain’t happening again in 21.
Their shops do open Sundays.
A game in Sydney on a Satd night would be nice..
3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment..Old Faithful
#emptythetank :shock:
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by Northern Raider »

Bay53 wrote: November 26, 2020, 12:46 pm Gee we become the Broncos in the later part of the season with a run home of Friday, Thursday, Friday, Friday, Thursday.

Our last weekend game is July 31. Sure that has never happened before.
Except those Friday games are all 6pm time slot. At least it's good turnaround times leading into finals.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by Bay53 »

-TW- wrote: November 26, 2020, 3:36 pm And I was straight in to get tickets for the T20 next Friday as I'd missed out originally

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yeah same. I forgot they were going on sale and logged on about 90 mins in and they were sold out One dayer was available and I got that but then got the T20 this afternoon.

Then we have 6 big bash games in December. Great period of cricket in Canberra.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by gergreg »

-PJ- wrote:
Bay53 wrote: November 26, 2020, 2:35 pm
-PJ- wrote: November 26, 2020, 1:55 pm A game in Sydney on a Satd night would be nice..

I’ve been promising MrsPJ and PJjnr a trip to Sydney with a Raiders game for me and retail therapy for her.

Ain’t happening again in 21.
Their shops do open Sundays.
A game in Sydney on a Satd night would be nice..
Not quite Sydney but there's a Saturday game in Wollongong. The train ride down isn't too bad and I don't mind the stadium, sitting on the hill with a coldie. And it is the dragons who often find some fantastic ways to lose to us.

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greeneyed
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by greeneyed »

Strength of schedule: How tough is your team's 2021 draw?

The Canberra Raiders have been handed the fifth most difficult draw, according to an NRL.com analysis. To come up with this list they gave every opponent a rating between 1 (for last year's wooden spooners Brisbane) to 16 (for reigning premiers Melbourne). They then added up the total score for each club's fixture list across the season to come up with their "draw toughness score".

Of course, other factors play a part in how difficult a fixture list can be – from travel to the State of Origin period to the amount of time between matches. For example, while the Storm, Raiders and Warriors each have three five-day turnarounds this season, four other clubs (the Bulldogs, Eels, Sharks and Tigers) have none. The Bulldogs have the most turnarounds of seven days or more (18), while the Roosters have the fewest (12).

Read more: https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/11/27/str ... 2021-draw/
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by Toviii »

Fox gave us the 3rd easiest draw - how can there be such a difference?
'I've got 17 blokes in that dressing room that are hurting'
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by Bay53 »

Toviii wrote: November 27, 2020, 11:12 am Fox gave us the 3rd easiest draw - how can there be such a difference?
Different inputs create different outputs.

Obviously if you make the 8, you are probably going to play less games against teams that made the 8, but virtue that there are only 7 possibilities. Penrith must have it easy because they don't play at all against the the 2020 minor premiers.

Broncos do seem to have a tough run playing 15 games against 2020 finalists. The only one they miss a second clash against is us.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by bonehead »

Toviii wrote:Fox gave us the 3rd easiest draw - how can there be such a difference?
because foxlabs depth of analysis wasn't just rating the ladder from 2020 1 thru 16?

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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by greeneyed »

bonehead wrote: November 27, 2020, 12:49 pm
Toviii wrote:Fox gave us the 3rd easiest draw - how can there be such a difference?
because foxlabs depth of analysis wasn't just rating the ladder from 2020 1 thru 16?

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This is how Fox Sports describes what their "Lab" did and their explanation as to why Canberra's rating is fairly "easy":

The strength of the schedule is based off the Lab Predictor’s ratings for each team, which also factors in how teams have historically gone at scheduled venues. Canberra’s rating would be heavily influenced by their strong record at scheduled venues given the quality of opposition they face is quite strong. Their 12 games against top-eight teams ranks them at the third-most along with a number of other sides. Seven against top-four teams is also the second-most. They do have 12 meetings with bottom-eight finishers from last season but just five against the four worst.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-pr ... eea3cc68d8

I seem to remember that article saying yesterday that they ran simulations of every match, presumably based on some statistical indicators. But if it did say that, it doesn't now!
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by bonehead »

exactly General, much much deeper analysis

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greeneyed
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by greeneyed »

VIDEO: Raiders CEO Don Furner reacts to 2021 NRL draw: https://www.raiders.com.au/news/2020/11 ... -nrl-draw/
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by BadnMean »

https://leagueunlimited.com/news/35343- ... -analysis/

Some interesting stuff here, especially looking at turnarounds for and against your team + stability rating. Raiders get the least days turnaround (totalled, 165) out of any team. But our opposition faced each week also total the fewest turnaround days (146 altogether).

Looks like Penrif have the best draw for recovery- among the fewest short turnarounds and the most "stable" rating.

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greeneyed
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by greeneyed »

Some really interesting stuff comparing how teams have fared in the draw (travel, FTA TV etc). Their conclusion is the Raiders have the second hardest draw, factoring in turnarounds, travel, opposition strength: https://nothingbutleague.com/2020/11/29 ... -analysis/

Other interesting points... we ask for afternoons in winter, but we play more at night than just about any other team, hardly ever on Sunday. Our travel burden is three times that of the Eels and Rabbitohs and double the Roosters, Panthers and Dragons.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by afgtnk »

Typical of the NRL to give us 12 away games, and then steal one of our home ones by making us play in **** Timbuktu.

Absolutely **** typical of the pricks.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by gangrenous »

greeneyed wrote: The strength of the schedule is based off the Lab Predictor’s ratings for each team, which also factors in how teams have historically gone at scheduled venues. Canberra’s rating would be heavily influenced by their strong record at scheduled venues given the quality of opposition they face is quite strong.
I should read the article first before saying this, but that sounds **** stupid.

The way you’ve described it the strength of your draw is impacted by the strength of your team in previous years. That would be daft.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by Bay53 »

I hadn't noticed that we play our first two games on Sunday afternoon then not again for the rest of the season. Lets hope we play one more Sunday night game - on the first weekend in October.

I have never asked a player this, but I would have thought that from a player's perspective Sunday would be the least preferred day to play.

For a player, their work life revolves around the schedule so it probably doesn't matter too much what day they play, but for the people around them, most of them still lead a Monday to Friday work life, especially if they have school aged children. Playing Sunday means the start of the weekend is entirely focused on preparation for the upcoming match and then by the time the game is played, the weekend is basically over.

Playing on Thursday or Friday means they get a fair bit of the weekend with their families.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by Bay53 »

RedRaider wrote: November 26, 2020, 1:13 pm I thought the NRL was reducing the number of 5 day turn arounds. As you say we have 3 for season 2021:
24/4 v Cowboys then 29/4 v Souths. July will be interesting: 3/7 v Titans then 8/7 v Manly and 17/7 v Sharks then 22/7 v Eels.
Looking at the 5 day turnarounds, Souths get one extra day, Manly also have a 5 day turnaround and Parra have one extra day.

Whilst the 5 day turnarounds are not easy, I would have thought for the players and fitness staff, they do provide an opportunity. After all three of those Thursday games we don't play until the following Saturday meaning there is a 9 day turnaround for the next match. Play Saturday, recover well, have a limited preparation, play the Thursday and then you are rewarded with a couple of days off and probably not required back to training until Monday.

Not a bad trade off to get a few days off in what is a very long, tough season both physically and mentally.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by simo »

im as disgusted as the rest of you that the raiders need to travel further to play against sydney teams than other sydney teams do.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

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simo wrote: December 1, 2020, 11:08 am im as disgusted as the rest of you that the raiders need to travel further to play against sydney teams than other sydney teams do.
That misses the actual concern. The concern is the NRL deliberately structures the draw so Sydney teams play Sydney team more often, while putting out of Sydney teams against each other more often. It’s clearly driven by the desires of Channel Nine, and it shouldn’t be happening, in my view. It ensures Sydney teams have a travel advantage they wouldn’t have with more random pools of teams. I think it’s a reasonable concern myself... and we saw how important it was this year. Hopefully travel arrangements can be a lot better next year.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

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greeneyed wrote: December 1, 2020, 12:30 pm
simo wrote: December 1, 2020, 11:08 am im as disgusted as the rest of you that the raiders need to travel further to play against sydney teams than other sydney teams do.
That misses the actual concern. The concern is the NRL deliberately structures the draw so Sydney teams play Sydney team more often, while putting out of Sydney teams against each other more often. It’s clearly driven by the desires of Channel Nine, and it shouldn’t be happening, in my view. It ensures Sydney teams have a travel advantage they wouldn’t have with more random pools of teams. I think it’s a reasonable concern myself... and we saw how important it was this year. Hopefully travel arrangements can be a lot better next year.
Whats the total distance that other teams have to travel to play us? You would complain id we had to play the bulldogs at home 15 times in a season. Its just a draw
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by greeneyed »

simo wrote: December 1, 2020, 1:38 pm
greeneyed wrote: December 1, 2020, 12:30 pm
simo wrote: December 1, 2020, 11:08 am im as disgusted as the rest of you that the raiders need to travel further to play against sydney teams than other sydney teams do.
That misses the actual concern. The concern is the NRL deliberately structures the draw so Sydney teams play Sydney team more often, while putting out of Sydney teams against each other more often. It’s clearly driven by the desires of Channel Nine, and it shouldn’t be happening, in my view. It ensures Sydney teams have a travel advantage they wouldn’t have with more random pools of teams. I think it’s a reasonable concern myself... and we saw how important it was this year. Hopefully travel arrangements can be a lot better next year.
Whats the total distance that other teams have to travel to play us? You would complain id we had to play the bulldogs at home 15 times in a season. Its just a draw
This shows you: https://nothingbutleague.com/2020/11/29 ... -analysis/

It would “just a draw” if there was a level playing field applied in constructing it. But there’s not. There are very deliberate policies being adopted by the NRL which favour some clubs over others. They have a commercial driver, as their FTA TV broadcaster demands it. But I’m not going to sit back and pretend it’s not a disadvantage to our team. And I’m pretty sure the Raiders agree with me on it, too.
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Re: 2021 Canberra Raiders draw

Post by simo »

greeneyed wrote: December 1, 2020, 1:45 pm
simo wrote: December 1, 2020, 1:38 pm
greeneyed wrote: December 1, 2020, 12:30 pm
simo wrote: December 1, 2020, 11:08 am im as disgusted as the rest of you that the raiders need to travel further to play against sydney teams than other sydney teams do.
That misses the actual concern. The concern is the NRL deliberately structures the draw so Sydney teams play Sydney team more often, while putting out of Sydney teams against each other more often. It’s clearly driven by the desires of Channel Nine, and it shouldn’t be happening, in my view. It ensures Sydney teams have a travel advantage they wouldn’t have with more random pools of teams. I think it’s a reasonable concern myself... and we saw how important it was this year. Hopefully travel arrangements can be a lot better next year.
Whats the total distance that other teams have to travel to play us? You would complain id we had to play the bulldogs at home 15 times in a season. Its just a draw
This shows you: https://nothingbutleague.com/2020/11/29 ... -analysis/

It would “just a draw” if there was a level playing field applied in constructing it. But there’s not. There are very deliberate policies being adopted by the NRL which favour some clubs over others. They have a commercial driver, as their FTA TV broadcaster demands it. But I’m not going to sit back and pretend it’s not a disadvantage to our team. And I’m pretty sure the Raiders agree with me on it, too.
i cant see where it shows it. it shows other teams totals, but id like to see distance to games against us.
the club wants a better draw that benefits them? shock me. youre so in sync with them.
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