2021 Canberra Raiders draw

[Bay53]

Yeah, we lost the prelim final because we had nothing left to give after the match against the Roosters the week before. Plus, the Storm played the perfect game plan, they knew they had to blow us off the park early and used speed to go around us on the outside.

We, as fans, need to stop peddling narratives like we lost the prelim final because of travel, because it's utter hogwash.

Agree with that to an extent Nickman. Chances were we were cooked going into that game, but the fact we were required to leave at 3pm for a 7.50 (Canberra time) game, meant we were especially vulnerable to getting jumped early and that is exactly what happened. Would we have lost if we had been able to get to a hotel for a few hours before hand? Most likely, but the arrangements were an extra handicap we didn't need.

Regardless, I wasn't so much talking about the prelim, just making the point that this year was an exception. What I was talking about was that the Raiders are quite happy to travel further than Sydney for away games, Don Furner said it last week in the interview on the Raiders website, and it has been said plenty of times before.

[Bay53]

It should be said that the NRL is hardly the only sporting code that prioritises local derbies over an even number of games. The AFL do it with the Perth, Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane/Gold Coast derbies taking place twice every year (2020 excepted) and a couple of big Vic derbies (Ess v Coll etc) being played twice. Similarly in American sports they have conferences and divisions whereby they play a lot more games against local opponents than teams on the other side of the country.

The only sport that makes sure all teams play each other the same amount of times, home and away is football or soccer. I expect part of the reason for that is that is their competition, whoever finishes on top is the premier, whereas sports which have a playoff series arguably can afford some unevenness in the draw as the best team is likely to prevail in the finals series.

[-TW-]

I'm really failing to see what the complaining is about.

There's more teams in Sydney than the rest of the country, hence Sydney teams travel less than non Sydney teams.

It's never going to change unless the rest of the Sydney teams are moved....

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[The Nickman]

I'm really failing to see what the complaining is about.

Your first day here?

[-TW-]

I'm really failing to see what the complaining is about.

Your first day here?

Quack quack quack

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[gangrenous]

It’s not hard.

He’s saying that yes there’s a natural discrepancy through the location of the teams, and that it is exacerbated by a draw which preferences matchups between Sydney teams over random selection.

Ignoring whether it should be done or not. Half of you appear to be struggling to grasp the core argument.

[greeneyed]

It’s not hard.

He’s saying that yes there’s a natural discrepancy through the location of the teams, and that it is exacerbated by a draw which preferences matchups between Sydney teams over random selection.

Ignoring whether it should be done or not. Half of you appear to be struggling to grasp the core argument.

It is called being deliberately obtuse.

[Botman]

Reading the discussion above regarding the draw I think the answer is and has always been a 22 Round System. Teams split into 2 x Groups of 8. Each team plays everyone once and the other 7 teams in their Group twice. How the Groups are split can be dabated (i.e. are they the same every year, does it change randomly each year, etc.). But I think 'Rivals' should always play twice like Rabbits v Roosters, Cowboys v Broncos, Dragons v Sharks and so on.

Yep, 100% agree with a system like this.

[The Nickman]

Reading the discussion above regarding the draw I think the answer is and has always been a 22 Round System. Teams split into 2 x Groups of 8. Each team plays everyone once and the other 7 teams in their Group twice. How the Groups are split can be dabated (i.e. are they the same every year, does it change randomly each year, etc.). But I think 'Rivals' should always play twice like Rabbits v Roosters, Cowboys v Broncos, Dragons v Sharks and so on.

Yep, 100% agree with a system like this.

Yep, it's definitely the way to go for a more balanced comp, and you could have a top 4 from each, let's call it, conference go through to the finals. Simple!

[Seiffert82]

Reading the discussion above regarding the draw I think the answer is and has always been a 22 Round System. Teams split into 2 x Groups of 8. Each team plays everyone once and the other 7 teams in their Group twice. How the Groups are split can be dabated (i.e. are they the same every year, does it change randomly each year, etc.). But I think 'Rivals' should always play twice like Rabbits v Roosters, Cowboys v Broncos, Dragons v Sharks and so on.

Yep, 100% agree with a system like this.

Yep, it's definitely the way to go for a more balanced comp, and you could have a top 4 from each, let's call it, conference go through to the finals. Simple!

Yeah, when you have a comp with 8 teams from Sydney (including the Dragons and excluding the Panthers) and 8 from outside the greater Sydney area, I always thought a 2 conference system was the way to go, with a 22 round draw in mind. The top 4 teams from each conference would make the finals.

The downside is you get 2 less rounds - so less TV and game-day revenue, but you could adjust the draw to have a proper representative schedule in the middle of the season to compensate.

However, when you look at the competition tables over the past 11 seasons, on average exactly 4 Sydney teams and 4 non-Sydney teams make the finals every year. In 6 of those 11 seasons, 4 from each 'group' made the finals; in 4 seasons there was a 5/3 split; and in 1 season there was a 6/2 split (when only 2 Sydney teams made the finals in 2016). So recent history shows that Sydney teams don't really have a statistical advantage in making the finals over non-Sydney teams.

[The Nickman]

Reading the discussion above regarding the draw I think the answer is and has always been a 22 Round System. Teams split into 2 x Groups of 8. Each team plays everyone once and the other 7 teams in their Group twice. How the Groups are split can be dabated (i.e. are they the same every year, does it change randomly each year, etc.). But I think 'Rivals' should always play twice like Rabbits v Roosters, Cowboys v Broncos, Dragons v Sharks and so on.

Yep, 100% agree with a system like this.

Yep, it's definitely the way to go for a more balanced comp, and you could have a top 4 from each, let's call it, conference go through to the finals. Simple!

Yeah, when you have a comp with 8 teams from Sydney (including the Dragons and excluding the Panthers) and 8 from outside the greater Sydney area, I always thought a 2 conference system was the way to go, with a 22 round draw in mind. The top 4 teams from each conference would make the finals.

The downside is you get 2 less rounds - so less TV and game-day revenue, but you could adjust the draw to have a proper representative schedule in the middle of the season to compensate.

However, when you look at the competition tables over the past 11 seasons, on average exactly 4 Sydney teams and 4 non-Sydney teams make the finals every year. In 6 of those 11 seasons 4 from each 'group' made the finals; in 4 seasons there was a 5/3 split; and in 1 season there was a 6/2 split (when only 2 Sydney teams made the finals in 2016). So recent history shows that Sydney teams don't really have a statistical advantage in making the finals over non-Sydney teams.

It seems a reasonably fair divide from a number of perspectives, but it does mean teams like the Raiders would only host Sydney clubs once every 2 years (which is often the case anyway).

Absolutely makes sense to me... 8 team Sydney conference, 8 team non-Sydney conference, top 4 of each conference makes the finals.

*chef's kiss* no more complaints about unfairness of draw!

[greeneyed]

A Sydney and a non Sydney “conference” is the absolute worst way to go. Dreadful. It not only institutionalises the travel burden differences it guarantees Sydney suburban teams spots in the finals. These teams are going to slowly weaken over time... as they having shrinking supporter bases... and it will prop up teams that quite possibly shouldn’t exist long term. And I thought the NRL management takes poor decisions. Glad some of you blokes aren’t down at Moore Park!


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[The Nickman]

Now who's being deliberately obtuse?

[greeneyed]

Why is that being deliberately obtuse? It’s consistent with my view on the Sydney derbies.


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[Wiki Special]

I think I'd still prefer a top 8 based on overall performance as we do now, even with the 'Conference' system I suggested.

[BJ]

What day did the Storm travel on for the Grand Final from their relocated home to beat the Panthers?

They travelled the day before.

may as well have handed them the premiership

Such a pity the Queensland government gave us such late notice that we had to travel on the day.

[Fuifui Bradbrad]

Reading the discussion above regarding the draw I think the answer is and has always been a 22 Round System. Teams split into 2 x Groups of 8. Each team plays everyone once and the other 7 teams in their Group twice. How the Groups are split can be dabated (i.e. are they the same every year, does it change randomly each year, etc.). But I think 'Rivals' should always play twice like Rabbits v Roosters, Cowboys v Broncos, Dragons v Sharks and so on.

Yep, 100% agree with a system like this.

75% agree with this. I think 'Rivals' should play once, then you can have a Rivalry Rd and push the hell out of it. I would have 4 groups of 4, play each other in their group twice, outside the group once. Top 8 would see the winner of each conference make the top 4 + the next 4 best performing sides

Conferences could look like
Conf 1
Brisbane Broncos
Canberra Raiders
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks

Conf 2
Gold Coast Titans
St. George Illawarra Dragons
Wests Tigers
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Conf 3
North Queensland Cowboys
Newcastle Knights
Sydney Roosters
Parramatta Eels

Conf 4
Melbourne Storm
New Zealand Warriors
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Penrith Panthers

Draw could look something like
Rd 1 11/04/2021
Rd 2 18/04/2021
Rd 3 25/04/2021
Rd 4 2/05/2021
Rd 5 9/05/2021
Rd 6 16/05/2021
Rd 7 23/05/2021
SOOrigin/Rep Rd 30/05/2021
Rd 8 6/06/2021
Rd 9 13/06/2021
Rd 10 20/06/2021
Rd 11 27/06/2021
SOO/Rep Rd 4/07/2021
Rd 12 11/07/2021
Rd 13 18/07/2021
Rd 14 25/07/2021
Rd 15 1/08/2021
SOO/Rep Rd 8/08/2021
Rd 16 15/08/2021
Rd 17 22/08/2021
Rd 18 29/08/2021
All Star Weekend 5/09/2021
Finals Week 1 12/09/2021
Finals Week 2 19/09/2021
Finals Week 3 26/09/2021
Grand Final 3/10/2021

[Botman]

I've always swayed between a 4 per division system like you've got there (though my divisions are completely different) vs expansion to 18 teams with a 3 conference system... i think something like that makes sense if it stays at 16 teams (though you could also do a 2 conferences of 8, 22 game schedule very easily), though my divisions would look very different (D1 - Roosters-Souths-Manly-Sharks, D2 Penrith-Parra-Tigers-Bulldogs, D3 Newcastle-Dragons-Raiders-Melbourne, D4 - Brisbane, Cowboys, Titans, NZ)


3 conferences would mean 6 per conference play each 5 conference rivals twice a year home and away (10 games) and then play each of the non conference teams on a on/off home/away schedule once each year (12 games)

Edit: just played around and think maybe the best split is something like this
Inner Conference - Souths, Panthers , Tigers, Bulldogs, Roosters, Eels
Outer Conference - Raiders, Dragons, Knights, Eagles, W.A Team, Warriors
Inter Conference - Broncos, Brisbane 2, Titans, Cowboys, Storm, Melbourne 2

(Under Botman's rule, the Sharks would be no more, and the three new teams coming in would be Brisbane 2, Melbourne 2 and WA)

22 rounds, then you have top 2 seeds in each go through and the final 2 are wildcards based on record regardless of conference and reseed based on record... i could talk for hours about it tbh. I am more and more convinced something like this or the divisional system is absolutely the way forward for the NRL. Traditionalists wont like it but the next generation will learn through big games and natural human instinct to HATE everyone else in their conf/division, those conference/div games end up forging, long standing, passionate rivalries because those rivalries are generally built through either geography or constantly besting each other in big games, and all those division/conf games are "BIG games" and will get hyped as such... long term it would a really good move imo

[greeneyed]

I would be happy with properly set up and thought through conference system... but it shouldn’t confer travel or other advantages. I’m very opposed to an all Sydney conference... and “the rest”.


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[Botman]

As explained last time, you simply cant have a evenly distributed travel burden in the NRL unless you cut probably 4-5 Sydney clubs and disperse them to new interstate locations. There is no way to have the Canberra Raiders travel burden equal to the Parramatta Eels. It's just simply not possible unless you relocate teams to Perth, Brisbane, WA etc.

If we accept that isn't going to happen, and that the competition will always have a heavy contingent of it's franchises in Sydney, having sydney based teams mostly in their own division against the others, actually normalises the travel advantage. Because they will be competing for a finals spot with other teams who are equally as advantaged.
Those clubs that do naturally have to travel more and are disadvantaged then have their road to the finals and a winning season "quarantined" if you will from those with the advantage. It levels the playing field because you are really only competing with teams in your division, and as long as the schedule and travel situation within the division is as even as it can be, then you've achieved a level of parity that the NRL has not ever been, and a far cry better than it is now.

[greeneyed]

Again, you're misunderstanding me. I know they cannot be equal... unless every team plays the others once, and then the venues are switched the next year. Or every team plays the others twice, home and away. With 16 teams, once or twice doesn't deliver a workable season length. So either the number of teams needs to be reduced (to 12)... which is what Super League aimed to do. That's probably the best number of teams, really. Or we need expansion teams...

Assuming you can't have either... I don't want to see are conferences that repeatedly give certain regions given overwhelming travel advantages over others. That's why I'd prefer conferences with a mix of teams as Fui's attempted to do. I don't know if it's the right mix, but that's what you need to do, in my view, if you go down the conferences route.

[afgtnk]

The effect of travel has been grossly, grossly overstated - both throughout this year and this thread. No consideration being to the types of travel being done, circumstances, or conditions, let alone the complete lack of any scientific evidence regarding what effects it may have at different levels. Personally, give me travelling by bus from Canberra on smooth, relatively free highways with my mates than from Manly to Sydney's west on a jam-packed Saturday anyday.

In terms of issues affecting the league, it should be pretty far down the order.

[BadnMean]

It was an issue this year only because some teams weren't travelling at all and others had to travel in an unusual manner which stymied any chance for effective recovery and choosing an ideal pre game preparation- the former being the bigger issue as it builds up. This exaggerated the travel disparity to make it a genuine issue imo. It was one season, League was lucky to be played at all, but pretending it had/has no effect is silly.

Travel affecting teams has reputable sports science research behind it for decades now. And in that exaggerated form, it did matter. It didn''t make things impossible, but it made the Raiders season tougher, swimming against a current for a little stretch there and some teams got a nice little wave to ride instead.

During a normal season- not an issue for the Raiders. Warriors probably should get a say in their scheduling as to how they'd like to handle it.

[BJ]

Teams have to travel, that’s part and parcel of the competition. So you can never be even.

It’s the Raiders regularly playing the opening game of the season away in Nth Qld or against Titans on a hot afternoon that annoys me.

Playing the last round before finals in NZ a few times too just looks like the NRL manually adjusts the draw too much.

[Botman]

It was an issue this year only because some teams weren't travelling at all and others had to travel in an unusual manner which stymied any chance for effective recovery and choosing an ideal pre game preparation- the former being the bigger issue as it builds up. This exaggerated the travel disparity to make it a genuine issue imo. It was one season, League was lucky to be played at all, but pretending it had/has no effect is silly.

Travel affecting teams has reputable sports science research behind it for decades now. And in that exaggerated form, it did matter. It didn''t make things impossible, but it made the Raiders season tougher, swimming against a current for a little stretch there and some teams got a nice little wave to ride instead.

During a normal season- not an issue for the Raiders. Warriors probably should get a say in their scheduling as to how they'd like to handle it.

Yeah, there is no question the COVID protocols and what needed to happen to salvage a season and ensure clubs didnt go broke and stakeholders all got managed to salvage a good part of the revenue from this season meant sacrifices had to be made
Interstate teams, particular those isolated like us, and more so NZ and eventual premiers Melbourne were of course most impacted by this
I have no doubt in many ways it impacted our season negatively overall. But yes, this is an outlier, a bizarre season that we'll never forget. But in a normal season, i concur with you and asknasfkja that travel is massively overrated and generally not a concern for our club.

I was a few years ago i was a VERY heavy gambler and i spent quite a bit of time reseraching this across the codes that i was interested in. My feeling having looked at what data i gathered and subsribed too... Travel is impactful mostly when you cross timezones and play in unsual slots for your body clock... the most impactful componet, as far as gambling goes, was the turnaround between games and where teams are "on the road" for 3 or more weeks... what i saw was a pretty consistent patten of teams underperforming expections when those situations occur

So when i look at our draw, i look for short turn arounds, odd time slots and prolonged stretches of playing away. Looking at our draw it looks pretty chalk in terms of time slots, as noted by me earlier, we're never home nor away for more than 2 weeks in a row, which has a nice consistency to it and the nature of the NRL is we dont really have to consider the timezone factor here.
It's a good steady draw for us.

As said, it's a good draw that will not be prohibitve to our goals for 2021. We will sink or swim on our own performance.

[Dr Zaius]

It was an issue this year only because some teams weren't travelling at all and others had to travel in an unusual manner which stymied any chance for effective recovery and choosing an ideal pre game preparation- the former being the bigger issue as it builds up. This exaggerated the travel disparity to make it a genuine issue imo. It was one season, League was lucky to be played at all, but pretending it had/has no effect is silly.

Travel affecting teams has reputable sports science research behind it for decades now. And in that exaggerated form, it did matter. It didn''t make things impossible, but it made the Raiders season tougher, swimming against a current for a little stretch there and some teams got a nice little wave to ride instead.

During a normal season- not an issue for the Raiders. Warriors probably should get a say in their scheduling as to how they'd like to handle it.

Yeah, there is no question the COVID protocols and what needed to happen to salvage a season and ensure clubs didnt go broke and stakeholders all got managed to salvage a good part of the revenue from this season meant sacrifices had to be made
Interstate teams, particular those isolated like us, and more so NZ and eventual premiers Melbourne were of course most impacted by this
I have no doubt in many ways it impacted our season negatively overall. But yes, this is an outlier, a bizarre season that we'll never forget. But in a normal season, i concur with you and asknasfkja that travel is massively overrated and generally not a concern for our club.

I was a few years ago i was a VERY heavy gambler and i spent quite a bit of time reseraching this across the codes that i was interested in. My feeling having looked at what data i gathered and subsribed too... Travel is impactful mostly when you cross timezones and play in unsual slots for your body clock... the most impactful componet, as far as gambling goes, was the turnaround between games and where teams are "on the road" for 3 or more weeks... what i saw was a pretty consistent patten of teams underperforming expections when those situations occur

So when i look at our draw, i look for short turn arounds, odd time slots and prolonged stretches of playing away. Looking at our draw it looks pretty chalk in terms of time slots, as noted by me earlier, we're never home nor away for more than 2 weeks in a row, which has a nice consistency to it and the nature of the NRL is we dont really have to consider the timezone factor here.
It's a good steady draw for us.

As said, it's a good draw that will not be prohibitve to our goals for 2021. We will sink or swim on our own performance.

Given that when the competition resumed from lockdown, every week was a home game, how do you think that impacted on our season?

[Botman]

To per perfectly honest, in the sports i've watch... this covid season, with a mix of some crowds, no crowds, neutral venues, bubbles... it's been impossible for me to make head or tails of it. I think this is a very unique situation and anecdotal for me, ive felt the home/away thing has been a total wash (as an example, the away team has more than the home team in the NFL as of last week... the NBA bubble rendered home court advantage in the 7 game play offs completely useless) and from what i have seen, it's been a hard nose discaplinary coach, and strong leadership and unity in the playing group that seems to shining through (talent of course is still required).

Seems to me the teams who lack some chemistry, or dont have someone super well respected player setting the standards off the park, in teams where friction may have existed, and/or have a "players coach" have on the whole, sort of under performed to expectations.

A club like ours, with the coach we have and his style of motivation, and the leadership group we have, i think we were one of the teams best suited to deal with the "adversity", it kind of feeds into the ethos of the coach and playing group under him. So i think it was probably actually a bit of a net positive for us... but obviously whilst the travel situation is overrated, it is far from ideal to be flying up to a prelim final 4 hours before kick off, and whilst there were very clear structural problems with our team and game plan that probably contributed more to that Storm performance than the travel, it'd be silly to say that travel on that particular circumstance wasnt a factor.

[Dr Zaius]

But by your own account, three or more games on the road has an impact. We had 5. We looked tired for much of the season, slow out of the blocks. What happened in the prelim wasn't out of character for the season, it's just the team we started slowly against were very, very good, and we were no chance of a comeback like we'd done many times this season

Was this because of travel, or a mental/preparation issue? Hard to say, maybe both. I don't think that we can discount the impact that travel had on our team this season. That's not meant as a dig at the NRL.

[RedRaider]

The Storm were 'honorary' Queenslanders this year by basing themselves on the Sunshine Coast. They were also the best performed 'Queensland' side and the Qld Premier gave them every opportunity.

Having said that we had to be at our very best to beat them and we weren't. Game over.

[Seiffert82]

We were clearly outplayed for 20 minutes in that Storm game and Melbourne deserved to win, but there is little doubt in my mind that our disrupted preparation for the game didn't help our start.

[greeneyed]

Canberra Raiders Round 12 fixture against Sydney Roosters relocated from Perth to Central Coast

The Canberra Raiders round 12 away fixture against the Sydney Roosters has been relocated to Central Coast Stadium in Gosford. The match, which was originally due to take place at HBF Park in Perth, was relocated in light of COVID and risks around border closures.

Read more: https://www.raiders.com.au/news/2021/02 ... relocated/

[bonehead]

excellent

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[zim]

Great for us. That is a difficult period of the draw.

[BadnMean]

Cool. That's a different little away trip, might try to get up there.

[Makaveli]

I'm in for that game