Off contract Raiders... who to retain, who to release?

[greeneyed]

Up to $40m of talent will be up for grabs next week... Who to target, retain, release

On November 1, a host of big-name stars will be allowed to open talks with rivals as clubs scramble to lock up talent whose contracts run out in 2021. Up to $40 million worth of talent will be available.

PLAYERS OFF-CONTRACT END OF 2021 BY CLUB

CANBERRA RAIDERS

Caleb Aekins
Emre Guler
Matt Frawley
Dunamis Lui
Harley Smith-Shields
Sia Soliola
Semi Valemei
Sam Williams
Hudson Young

Read more: https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-pr ... a16b4674ed

[benda]

Must keeps from what I saw this season thats passed:


Emre Guler
Dunamis Lui
Harley Smith-Shields
Sia Soliola
Semi Valemei
Sam Williams
Hudson Young

[afgtnk]

Must keeps:

No one.

There is no one on that list that we must keep.

[GreenMachine]

Must keeps:

No one.

There is no one on that list that we must keep.

Disagree.
Young, Lui and Guler are must keeps.

[afgtnk]

I can assure you they're not.

In this salary cap game, there's about 3-4 must keeps in this entire squad - if that.

[BJ]

Yes I agree at the right price. According to media reports Lui was on a low salary and I’m sure the other two are the same.

Upgrades will probably have to be on offer if we want to keep them, but I hope they aren’t big upgrades.

Young is turning his football career around in the less media scrutinised Canberra. I hope he takes the long term career view and extends another couple of seasons.

Lui and Papa are obviously good for each other, so I hope he stays. There’s a premiership window on offer, players would be foolish to not stick it out with your mates for a grand final winners ring.

[GreenMachine]

I can assure you they're not.

In this salary cap game, there's about 3-4 must keeps in this entire squad - if that.

You can't win football games, let alone a competition with 3-4 players. You need a squad.
You let those 3 go, your depth suffers, then your either buying back high or blooding more youth.
Furthermore its well documented that Lui offers leadership intangibles that you can't simply find with any replacement.
Obviously everything has a price.

[NoMan]

Young and probably Guler.

[greeneyed]

We’re talking about contracts for 2022 here and beyond. Sia Soliola won’t go around again after next year. I think Guler, Young, Smith-Shields and possibly Valemei, depending on 2021 form, would be players I’d want the Raiders to keep.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Seiffert82]

As up and coming forward talent, Guler and Young are at the top of the list, especially with both Soliola and Whitehead on the wrong side of 30. Lui provides great depth, but is now competing with the likes of Ryan James for minutes.

It's impossible to form a strong opinion on HSS and Valemei at this stage. Both look to have FG potential, but will likely be given a good period of time in 2021 to prove their capability before the club locks anything in.

[Matt]

Of our list Id say (remember this is for the end of next yr):

"Must have"
Emre Guler - Id say must have
Hudson Young - Id say must have

Want to keep/ nice to keep
Harley Smith-Shields - Must have? No, want to keep, yes.
Semi Valemei - Must have? No. Want to keep, yes.
Dunamis Lui - Just made the QLD team, lets see next yr. Not must have, but you probably re-sign him.

Depth decision
Caleb Aekins - depth decision
Matt Frawley - depth decision - I suspect he might be our new Sammy TBH.
Sam Williams - depth decision, and age is starting to catch up (30 start of next yr), will he go to ESL?, might be a coaching option

Release
Sia Soliola - Next yr, Id say move him to the coaching staff or the like

[BadnMean]

Begin discussions: Guler, Young, Lui.

Lui has stayed for less/low money before. If he stays at that value then great, keep him as he provides a lot. If he wants 400k then obviously reconsider. But realistically, he'll stay for a budget FG prop option. If not- happy days for Guler, Hors, James etc.

Guler and Young are promising talents. Sign them again, keep them.

Monitor: Valemi, HSS.

No need to start yet. Let's see how they stand up in an off season and then a month or two of proper footy next season vs men (be it FG or NSW Cup- Canberra Cup would be a disaster to go to straight after the COVID gap year, development wise). We'll know a bit more about other situations then- Simo, Rapa, Scott and even Croker might affect how urgently we need to keep young talent and whether we wait for another to come along.

No-one will be bashing the door down to sign these guys, let's see how they go first.

Others: no need to sign early. No doubt one or two will be resigned to fill the squad. Frawley is ok as a backup. But way down priority list.

[Roy Rover]

Hudson Young MUST KEEP

[afgtnk]

I can assure you they're not.

In this salary cap game, there's about 3-4 must keeps in this entire squad - if that.

You can't win football games, let alone a competition with 3-4 players. You need a squad.
You let those 3 go, your depth suffers, then your either buying back high or blooding more youth.
Furthermore its well documented that Lui offers leadership intangibles that you can't simply find with any replacement.
Obviously everything has a price.

Unless you're Josh Papalii and maybe Joseph Tapine, middles are largely disposable. We're not skint on them, and neither is the rest of the comp - they grow on trees, in abundance. The ease with which we've found quality depth in such quick time should tell someone all they need to know about the inherent value of these guys, whereas it's taken us 20 odd years to find someone worthy enough to wear Sticky and Boxhead's old jerseys.

Your last sentence is the key here. We're going to have pretty strict budgets for these positions - if they want to receive well over what we've set, they'll need to go. I know what I'm saying is harsh, but if your premiership hopes relies on a guy like Guler, or Young, or Lui, then you're not really in the hunt for a premiership. They're all guys that are quite easily replaced and small cogs in the machine - we shouldn't be afraid of letting them go if need be.

[casta66]

I can assure you they're not.

In this salary cap game, there's about 3-4 must keeps in this entire squad - if that.

You can't win football games, let alone a competition with 3-4 players. You need a squad.
You let those 3 go, your depth suffers, then your either buying back high or blooding more youth.
Furthermore its well documented that Lui offers leadership intangibles that you can't simply find with any replacement.
Obviously everything has a price.

Unless you're Josh Papalii and maybe Joseph Tapine, middles are largely disposable. We're not skint on them, and neither is the rest of the comp - they grow on trees, in abundance. The ease with which we've found quality depth in such quick time should tell someone all they need to know about the inherent value of these guys, whereas it's taken us 20 odd years to find someone worthy enough to wear Sticky and Boxhead's old jerseys.

Your last sentence is the key here. We're going to have pretty strict budgets for these positions - if they want to receive well over what we've set, they'll need to go. I know what I'm saying is harsh, but if your premiership hopes relies on a guy like Guler, or Young, or Lui, then you're not really in the hunt for a premiership. They're all guys that are quite easily replaced and small cogs in the machine - we shouldn't be afraid of letting them go if need be.

I seem to recall a young Wayne Bennett (back when he was 65) saying something similar about props. Basically an unwritten rule to cap them at a fairly budget wage.
Similar reasoning, that they aren't hard to find compared to spine players.

[Seiffert82]

I can assure you they're not.

In this salary cap game, there's about 3-4 must keeps in this entire squad - if that.

You can't win football games, let alone a competition with 3-4 players. You need a squad.
You let those 3 go, your depth suffers, then your either buying back high or blooding more youth.
Furthermore its well documented that Lui offers leadership intangibles that you can't simply find with any replacement.
Obviously everything has a price.

Unless you're Josh Papalii and maybe Joseph Tapine, middles are largely disposable. We're not skint on them, and neither is the rest of the comp - they grow on trees, in abundance. The ease with which we've found quality depth in such quick time should tell someone all they need to know about the inherent value of these guys, whereas it's taken us 20 odd years to find someone worthy enough to wear Sticky and Boxhead's old jerseys.

Your last sentence is the key here. We're going to have pretty strict budgets for these positions - if they want to receive well over what we've set, they'll need to go. I know what I'm saying is harsh, but if your premiership hopes relies on a guy like Guler, or Young, or Lui, then you're not really in the hunt for a premiership. They're all guys that are quite easily replaced and small cogs in the machine - we shouldn't be afraid of letting them go if need be.

I seem to recall a young Wayne Bennett (back when he was 65) saying something similar about props. Basically an unwritten rule to cap them at a fairly budget wage.
Similar reasoning, that they aren't hard to find compared to spine players.

Yes, I distinctly remember that comment too. I think it may have been during the lean stage in the Broncos history when they had Shane Webke and Petero Civoniceva on pie and coke contracts.

Such wonderful cap management. Bennett is a genius.

[BadnMean]

Lured Lazarus from the Raiders in '92, also remarkably willing to play for just pies and coke after playing in 3 GF's in 3 years as the premier prop in the game. Probably homesick for the beaches of Qbyan?

[nachopants]

I rate Lui so much higher than Guler, I'm not sure what the hype is all about there. Lui has superior leg speed and must have won us posession 10 times this year with 1-on-1 steals

[GreenMachine]

I can assure you they're not.

In this salary cap game, there's about 3-4 must keeps in this entire squad - if that.

You can't win football games, let alone a competition with 3-4 players. You need a squad.
You let those 3 go, your depth suffers, then your either buying back high or blooding more youth.
Furthermore its well documented that Lui offers leadership intangibles that you can't simply find with any replacement.
Obviously everything has a price.

Unless you're Josh Papalii and maybe Joseph Tapine, middles are largely disposable. We're not skint on them, and neither is the rest of the comp - they grow on trees, in abundance. The ease with which we've found quality depth in such quick time should tell someone all they need to know about the inherent value of these guys, whereas it's taken us 20 odd years to find someone worthy enough to wear Sticky and Boxhead's old jerseys.

Your last sentence is the key here. We're going to have pretty strict budgets for these positions - if they want to receive well over what we've set, they'll need to go. I know what I'm saying is harsh, but if your premiership hopes relies on a guy like Guler, or Young, or Lui, then you're not really in the hunt for a premiership. They're all guys that are quite easily replaced and small cogs in the machine - we shouldn't be afraid of letting them go if need be.

Agree with the notion that you offer what you think they are worth.
If they want more, you let them go....I think the Club is pretty much working with this philosophy.
I'm really keen to see how Young develops next year...I've enjoyed his game this year.

"If need be"....sure, if it meant we were bringing in talent that would improve other areas (say our outside backs for example) I'd agree....we are flush with middles. Otherwise, blokes like Young and Guler to an extent, you would hold onto IMO.

[Seiffert82]

Lured Lazarus from the Raiders in '92, also remarkably willing to play for just pies and coke after playing in 3 GF's in 3 years as the premier prop in the game. Probably homesick for the beaches of Qbyan?

Yep. Wayne Bennett has about as much cred as Nick Politis when it comes to lectures on salary cap management.

But the point is well made that your team is built around the spine. IMO these days premier front rowers are the next most important position. I can't think of too many premiership winning teams of late with ploders in the front row.

[Mickey_Raider]

I have a feeling Lui making the Origin squad means that we won't be able to keep him past 2021.

From recollection we managed to get him on a bargain 250k contract. I am pretty sure an Origin calibre prop still in his prime should be able to command comfortably more than that.

[gangrenous]

Could see that going either way. I think generally you’re correct, but Dunamis strikes me as the type of player who does take unders to be where he’s happy.

Plus he might want to look at other players who went for money when they weren’t a cemented rep. I think career-wise his best move is staying put as part of a boss pack. The exception being if he had an offer to join a stud team like Storm, but that’s unlikely to be where a raise comes from.

In a nutshell I think Dunamis probably has a better life and career on 400K as a solid cog in a good team, than becoming a 500k prop trying to carry someone **** like the bulldogs.

[Mickey_Raider]

Could see that going either way. I think generally you’re correct, but Dunamis strikes me as the type of player who does take unders to be where he’s happy.

Plus he might want to look at other players who went for money when they weren’t a cemented rep. I think career-wise his best move is staying put as part of a boss pack. The exception being if he had an offer to join a stud team like Storm, but that’s unlikely to be where a raise comes from.

In a nutshell I think Dunamis probably has a better life and career on 400K as a solid cog in a good team, than becoming a 500k prop trying to carry someone **** like the bulldogs.

Yeah. But when 2022 kicks off he will be 32. Probably his last chance to get himself some decent cash before his career starts winding down.

From memory he stuck around Canberra for less cash last time so I know what you're saying. However If we can offer him barely more than 300k I am sure a cellar dweller or middling club would gladly pay the sort of cash (maybe 400-500k?) to him to make it worth his while.

[Botman]

Guler, Young and HSS should be the priorities
I’d be very disappointed if we lost any of those 3
The rest, it is what it is

[Northern Raider]

Incredible that Caleb Aekins has only just signed and he's already going on the open market. It's so ridiculous that players can negotiate contracts 12 months in advance.

[Botman]

Incredible that Caleb Aekins has only just signed and he's already going on the open market. It's so ridiculous that players can negotiate contracts 12 months in advance.

I don’t mind it
Gives teams and players certainty
The Aekins of the world... he’s signed here and can now negotiate with other clubs for 2022, but I’ll bet his managers phone remains silent on him. It is ridiculous in theory but the practicality of this tends to make it better than it seems

[Northern Raider]

Incredible that Caleb Aekins has only just signed and he's already going on the open market. It's so ridiculous that players can negotiate contracts 12 months in advance.

I don’t mind it
Gives teams and players certainty
The Aekins of the world... he’s signed here and can now negotiate with other clubs for 2022, but I’ll bet his managers phone remains silent on him. It is ridiculous in theory but the practicality of this tends to make it better than it seems

It's not such a big issue with these fringe 1st graders. They are roster fillers who aren't going to be poached well in advance. It is a problem with the higher end talent. Sign new deals before they even hit preseason on their current contract.

[BadnMean]

I rate Lui so much higher than Guler, I'm not sure what the hype is all about there. Lui has superior leg speed and must have won us posession 10 times this year with 1-on-1 steals

This is not a pure disagree- because I am with you 100% on Lui's contribution this year. He's done a 180 on his steal ability alone, + better yards, better D etc.

I think because Lui was just average for every other year here, but Guler quickly went from let's see how the kid goes to performing in a dominant pack vs the best packs in the game (adding offloads and footwork/power tries by late last year) + his big body frame... that looks pretty exciting for the next few years.

I'm not sure I agree on the footspeed (accelleration maybe?). But I was really of the opinion we need a big body (tall) prop. At over 190cm, Guler gave that. Most teams have a couple of guys 195cm or so- without Guler we have only middle size or barrel bodies to throw back and it can make a difference to making and stopping offloads and getting overpowered. We'll have James next too.

So it is not that Guler is better than Lui right this season (I'd say even steven 2019 and Lui better this year by virtue of career best), but many are taking the punt that Lui may revert to the mean of "decent budget prop" but Guler could be "representative prop"... perhaps.

__ I don't see Lui demanding 400-500k at age 32 either really. Maybe- good luck too him. But guys like Mogg who were very solid club players of similar calibre, got a rep gig and then ended up straight in Super League regardless spring to mind. At 32 he'll be around that rank I reckon. Qld aren't short of quality young middles in the 20-23 bracket so in 2 years if Dunamis is still in the mix he'll be doing very, very well.

[Hong Kong Raider]

Guler and Young for mine. Dunamis - I really like him, had a great season, but in 2022 will be getting on a bit

[zim]

Nami would be crazy not to maximize his earnings for his "last contract". Either at another club or in the super league. He's spent so much of his career with journey man deals.
Guler (who is only 22) has plenty of improvement left in him and his peaks in 2019 already looked very promising.

I'd be keeping Guler, Young, Smith-Shields and Valemei. Assuming appropriate contracts of course. None of these guys should be handicapping us. Any of the younger guys we've got below them are "2 years" away from proper first grade spots anyway.

[The Nickman]

Every player on that list is worth keeping if the price is right, and isn't worth keeping if they want more. Not a single one of them is a "whatever it takes to keep" kindof guy.

It's as simple as that.

[BJ]

I would try to negotiate to keep Guler ASAP for a reasonable price as he continues to develop and is younger and on the way up.

If he doesn’t agree to reasonable terms soon I’d be more than happy with Dunamis. It’s no good for either party for this to drag on.

But players shouldn’t jump ship during our short premiership window and whilst they have great training facilities and quality coaching. More players fail when moving clubs than succeed.

[afgtnk]

I've got doubts that we'll keep Lui, particularly if Rushton works out, and feel we'll also lose one of Guler or Horsburgh. Ryan James has Sia's clubman role written all over him if he can stay fit.

[RedRaider]

Every player on that list is worth keeping if the price is right, and isn't worth keeping if they want more. Not a single one of them is a "whatever it takes to keep" kindof guy.

It's as simple as that.

Yep, price is the key. We have already shown with the offer to Cotric that we have limits beyond which we will not (and should not) go. Hand in hand with price goes the length of the contract. I am all for retaining young talent with great potential, Guler, Young, HSS, Valemei but for me it should generally be 2 years with an option. Once a proven player like Jack, Papa, George Williams, Hodgo then go for the longer contracts. Players new to the club should almost never be on long term contracts. If it doesn't work out then they are a burden on the cap.