Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by afgtnk »

Ahh...... Olam is fast, fellas. Very fast.

Not sure if you've ever bothered to watch him play before.
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Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by LastRaider »

Let’s face it, this is happening. I feel like we are a bit like Cronulla after they won there first premiership in 2016. An ageing team who is mentally strong enough to never give up, but a step behind the play who will now fall a couple rungs down the ladder each year from here on in.

Rebuild is looming sometime over the next 2 years IMO




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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by -PJ- »

Just win me a premiership.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by Azza »

Agreed. We've come so far to be in with a shot, but it's not enough - time to win a comp.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by Rickmando »

We are squandering the best pack in the competition, by pairing it with just about the worst backline going around. Throw in Rick’s below average tactical acumen.... I believe 2019 was our shot and we just fell short.

I’d be thrilled to be wrong
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by dubby »

We've got a slow backline

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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by Botman »

I think the nature of the competition where even if we are inheritedly flawed and maybe not as good as the panthers or storm or roosters at their best, there is about 10 sides you wouldnt **** feed, and whilst that wont be this way forever, i thinik it's mostly going to hold true in the next 2 years

So our window is still firmly open, but i dont know that we're going to be the bench mark of the competition unless we find a couple of really good young outside backs and IMO, a ball playing fullback.
Which isnt to say we need them to win a comp, the team is good enough that it can compete for a title and in an any given sunday, and our style at our best is going to produce very close games in the finals, and when games are super tight, a bounce or the ball or one magic play can propel you into a GF/win you one.

But as i am fond of saying, our margins are razor thin. We cant beat the best teams playing anything but our best and if we're even 5% of that then we need some luck.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by GreenMachine »

We are that meme of a fine drawing of a horses head ...and child’s sketch of the backside..

Our forwards and halves are good enough, but our backs are the worst of the top 6 competitors..
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by greeneyed »

The biggest problem in the spine isn't the fullback... although it'd be great if CNK could develop some ball playing. The biggest issue is how the hooker and halves lack combination. Last year, we looked good with Starling feeding the halves. Hodgson is in the mould of Cameron Smith as a hooker, but he's not Cameron Smith (no one is). It is a long standing issue, and was there when we had Sezer and Austin in the halves. Ricky Stuart has said that time is needed to build combinations between Hodgson and the halves... but I'm not sure it's going to happen, or happen fast enough. We need to get Starling in at dummy half for a lot more minutes IMO.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by magoo »

Whilst I think our spine is good, IMO it's definitely a rung or two below the top teams. CNk is fantastic defensively, but will never be threat with ball in hand. Hodgo is frustrating to me, he has the ability but seems to lack self control in pressure situations. George I'm still undecided about. I see potential to be great, but he's not a game manager, he's a runner. Jack is a beast. Could become the best player in the game if he could get the momentum killing errors out of his game.

Maybe it's the coaches tactics that stifle the spine, I'm not sure. If we are to rise to the top I believe it's in the spine we need to improve not the backs.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by dubby »

Hodgo is a great hooker. But he stifles us, too. His time is almost up, or he needs to realign for better of the team.

Our outside backs are mediocre. They're not top 6 material. That's why we rely on individual brilliance. We lack speed and power out wide. Imagine Bradman Best in our centres?

We are on par with Parra. Good but but not brilliant. With luck, who knows.

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The spiral of silence refers to the idea that when people fail to speak, the price of speaking rises. As the price to speak rises, still fewer speak out, which further causes the price to rise, so that fewer people yet will speak out, until a whole culture or nation is silenced. This is what happened in Germany.

If you do not speak, you are not being neutral, but are contributing to the success of the thing you refuse to name and condemn.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by BadnMean »

Botman wrote: April 11, 2021, 5:20 pm I think the nature of the competition where even if we are inheritedly flawed and maybe not as good as the panthers or storm or roosters at their best, there is about 10 sides you wouldnt **** feed, and whilst that wont be this way forever, i thinik it's mostly going to hold true in the next 2 years

So our window is still firmly open, but i dont know that we're going to be the bench mark of the competition unless we find a couple of really good young outside backs and IMO, a ball playing fullback.
Which isnt to say we need them to win a comp, the team is good enough that it can compete for a title and in an any given sunday, and our style at our best is going to produce very close games in the finals, and when games are super tight, a bounce or the ball or one magic play can propel you into a GF/win you one.

But as i am fond of saying, our margins are razor thin. We cant beat the best teams playing anything but our best and if we're even 5% of that then we need some luck.
I disagree with you a bit there. 2 years ago our style at our best produced very close games in finals and we were legitimately the toss of a coin away from beating the best.

I think the game has shifted a little bit away from us in the 2 years since. Pace is ever more important with the 6 agains and more fatigue. And ours has gone backwards over those 2 years just through age and not refreshing the outside backs.

2019 we had peak Croker. Currently he's a fair way off that. We've lost our two most potent back 5 members and replaced them with just adequate (so far) players in Scott and Rapa/Simo.

Pre-season I said we are basically hoping one of our back 5 catches fire and goes to the next level. It hasn't happened. Nor has CNK matured into a capable ball player as I'd hoped.

Looking at that I just think our back 5 come up short. They don't come close to matching the top 5 teams back 5 for strike, pace or class imo. Roosters: Teddy, Morrisi, Manu. Eels: Sivo and Gutho. Storm: Paps and Olam. Souths: Latrell, Gagai (playing well this year). Penrith: Crichton (as centre), Momirovsk/Staines and Edwards has 5 line break assists in 3 games as a ball playing FB. All those have creative fullbacks + some power and outright speed around them.

Last year showed that teams like Melbourne have a gear that we don't have thanks to that strike. Last night showed Penrith have it too. We can't expect to win the big games just by hoping they all stay in 2nd gear all night. Especially not with rule changes giving more room for swift or creative outside backs to cut loose.
Last edited by BadnMean on April 11, 2021, 5:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by dubby »

And I know it's sacrilegious, but Croker is a weakness.
He would hardly make another NRL side. He lacks pace, power, he's a weakness in defence.

Yes, he kicks goals and is a fantastic guy, but so was Luke Covell

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The spiral of silence refers to the idea that when people fail to speak, the price of speaking rises. As the price to speak rises, still fewer speak out, which further causes the price to rise, so that fewer people yet will speak out, until a whole culture or nation is silenced. This is what happened in Germany.

If you do not speak, you are not being neutral, but are contributing to the success of the thing you refuse to name and condemn.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by -PJ- »

Let’s sign Bradman Best.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by Azza »

We're screwed. Goodbye.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by GreenMachine »

Parra’s backline is 100% better than ours..
And it’s not 2019 anymore.
Speed is vital throughout the team (forwards and backs) and we lack it in the backline.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by rayden83 »

It’s not closing, we just need to address the issues in the backline. The best way to do that is to throw money bags at some elite talent. I’m sure there’s plenty of studs playing for crap clubs who would love to sign for an elite team like Raiders. The prospect of Canberra may not excite them but perhaps playing under Ricky and possibly winning a GF might sway them.

The alternative is to play it cool and hope Simonsson, Timoko etc come good, but that is a low percentage play.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by magoo »

I suspect if our spine learns how to manage and control a game our backs won't look so average
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by Azza »

Our outside backs are freakin' dad's army
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by -PJ- »

Azza wrote: April 11, 2021, 6:32 pm Our outside backs are freakin' dad's army
Love that show..
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by BJ »

Azza wrote:Our outside backs are freakin' dad's army
Don’t Panic!
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by hobbsy »

We just need a bit of luck with HIAs and we will be right
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by hobbsy »

I really think some of the backline issues are being a bit overstated on here as well in terms of importance. There's no doubt that its the weakest area of our team, but combined with the talent we have across the rest of the park I certainly feel there's enough there to win a premiership.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by Azza »

Disagree hobbsy. It's absolutely time to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by Mickey_Raider »

We will squander our elite forward pack and upper echelon halves unless we get some legitimate talent in the backs.

As currently constructed we are blatantly careening towards another prelim loss, maybe even a week 2 finals loss.

We simply do not have the strike to beat the Storm, Panthers, Bunnies, Roosters in consecutive weeks. This was the case last year and our backline has regressed even further since then.

We deeeeesperately need some rejuvenation in the backs. At least one or two high quality, impactful backs who bring size, energy and quality. I believe we have a surplus of 2 or 3 quality forwards with trade value who can be offloaded to free up some cap room for us to pursue this.

To that end, some fans really need to wake up and smell the coffee. Stop running a protection racket and acting as if it is a big witch hunt that everyone is engaging in for the fun of it. Everyone loves Croker, but we are gunning for a premiership, not an old boys club reunion where in ten years they all get together and reminisce about how above average they were and how many nice blokes were around the club. We need to win now.

Rapana is also endangering himself with his frequent brain snaps, compounded by his declining athleticism.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by The Nickman »

Hahahahahahaha we’ve lost two games this season, and both on the back of unfortunate HIAs

You guys are seriously an absolute pack of clowns
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by Finchy »

We can cover HIA's in the forwards easily enough. Once we lose any of the outside backs/FB, our defensive structure is screwed and we become very frail. As Nickman pointed out, the Warriors game and Panther games are case in point examples.

We were going well in both contests until we had to start moving centres wingers and backrowers around to cover for injuries in the backline. We don't lose Kris and Scott doesn't bust his ribs, we win the Warriors game in a canter. We don't lose CNK and we could have either beaten the Panthers or lost a much closer and lower scoring contest IMO.

We'll need a bit of luck in that department if we're going to be any chance this year. Look at the Titans. We hold them to 4 points when we're near-full strength last week. This week they put nearly 50 on the Knights. They are a good attacking team, yet when we keep our backs on the field we had them covered pretty well.

When we haven't lost a back to injury, we've managed to hold our opposition to 12, 10, and 4 points. When we've lose a back we've conceded 34 and 30 points. I don't think we're inherently a bad defensive side, I really think it's a structural thing that we are poor at covering injuries in the backs.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by Botman »

I think thats a really good point
I think we, as a fan base, are overeacting a little bit right now, and i absolutely include myself in that.

when you stack our season up so far, it's been far from perfect but we'd be 4/4 going into the panthers game if not for a utterly obscene situation with our bench against the warriors and in that panthers game, prior to the reshuffle because of CNK, we werent just matching the panthers, we were on top.

They're a great side and you need to be at your best for the entire 80 to beat them and you simply cannot be at your best when you lose a fullback after 20 minutes, there is no team who can shuffle their personnel around to overcome that and beat a team like the panthers playing the way they are right now. Not happening.

So whilst yes, i dont think we're on the panthers level right at this moment, and there is issues in our squad which are cause for concern. Particularly the lack of speed and ball playing in the outside backs. But this is still a very good football team capable of beating anyone on it's day

I am confident we'll be there when the whips are cracking
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by GreenMachine »

Botman wrote: April 11, 2021, 9:10 pm I think thats a really good point
I think we, as a fan base, are overeacting a little bit right now, and i absolutely include myself in that.

when you stack our season up so far, it's been far from perfect but we'd be 4/4 going into the panthers game if not for a utterly obscene situation with our bench against the warriors and in that panthers game, prior to the reshuffle because of CNK, we werent just matching the panthers, we were on top.

They're a great side and you need to be at your best for the entire 80 to beat them and you simply cannot be at your best when you lose a fullback after 20 minutes, there is no team who can shuffle their personnel around to overcome that and beat a team like the panthers playing the way they are right now. Not happening.

So whilst yes, i dont think we're on the panthers level right at this moment, and there is issues in our squad which are cause for concern. Particularly the lack of speed and ball playing in the outside backs. But this is still a very good football team capable of beating anyone on it's day

I am confident we'll be there when the whips are cracking
So you’re happy to gloss over that poor game we should have lost (but for goal kicking) at Cronulla?

Who were the injured players that match?
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by GreenMachine »

We’re not accidentally in the position we are in.
We’re here because we haven’t regenerated our backline.
Our forwards and halves are good enough.
When we got rid of BJ and Rapana was allowed to leave to Japanese rugby, that was really the right opportunity.
All is not lost, but it really depends on whether Ricky can make the tough calls now.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by Finchy »

GreenMachine wrote: April 11, 2021, 9:13 pm
Botman wrote: April 11, 2021, 9:10 pm I think thats a really good point
I think we, as a fan base, are overeacting a little bit right now, and i absolutely include myself in that.

when you stack our season up so far, it's been far from perfect but we'd be 4/4 going into the panthers game if not for a utterly obscene situation with our bench against the warriors and in that panthers game, prior to the reshuffle because of CNK, we werent just matching the panthers, we were on top.

They're a great side and you need to be at your best for the entire 80 to beat them and you simply cannot be at your best when you lose a fullback after 20 minutes, there is no team who can shuffle their personnel around to overcome that and beat a team like the panthers playing the way they are right now. Not happening.

So whilst yes, i dont think we're on the panthers level right at this moment, and there is issues in our squad which are cause for concern. Particularly the lack of speed and ball playing in the outside backs. But this is still a very good football team capable of beating anyone on it's day

I am confident we'll be there when the whips are cracking
So you’re happy to gloss over that poor game we should have lost (but for goal kicking) at Cronulla?

Who were the injured players that match?
Different issue that game (attacking structure). Defensively not too bad, just an ordinary second half in ordinary conditions. The Sharks are also a pretty good attacking team. We had similar issues last year until Hodgson got injured and Starling came in. We were scoring nearly twice as many points for the rest of the year. It’s a connectivity issue with our spine players that will hopefully improve
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by Botman »

GreenMachine wrote: April 11, 2021, 9:13 pm So you’re happy to gloss over that poor game we should have lost (but for goal kicking) at Cronulla?

Who were the injured players that match?
Two points on that game

1. The weather leading up to that game was absymal. The conditions on the night were actually OK relatively speaking but it was looming as a mansoon in the lead up and the game plan reflected that.

2. I largely ignore the teams performances against the Sharks and Manly. I dont feel like we've played really good games against either for years. Which may or may not be true and maybe i am wrong for glossing over it. But i really am just happy getting out of games against those clubs with 2 points because it just feels like they're always pressing our buttons in the wrong way
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by GreenMachine »

Our attacking issues are related to our poor backline.
Hodgson does way too much with the ball in the ruck, taking time away from the halves who then have less time for any outside structure.
I’ve often wondered if it is a deliberate ploy (because we prefer to rely on our forwards barging up the middle) or a necessary plan because our backline lacks strike.

I don’t know.

What I do know is this notion that we need to be a “grinding crash ball team”
In order to be “defensive” is hogwash.

The best teams at the moment attack and defend equally well. They also have speed and strike out wide.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by GreenMachine »

Botman wrote: April 11, 2021, 9:25 pm
GreenMachine wrote: April 11, 2021, 9:13 pm So you’re happy to gloss over that poor game we should have lost (but for goal kicking) at Cronulla?

Who were the injured players that match?
Two points on that game

1. The weather leading up to that game was absymal. The conditions on the night were actually OK relatively speaking but it was looming as a mansoon in the lead up and the game plan reflected that.

2. I largely ignore the teams performances against the Sharks and Manly. I dont feel like we've played really good games against either for years. Which may or may not be true and maybe i am wrong for glossing over it. But i really am just happy getting out of games against those clubs with 2 points because it just feels like they're always pressing our buttons in the wrong way
In that same round, you had the eels beat the Storm in a close match.
Rooster and Panthers flogged their opponents and South’s beat a hopeless Manly...

All teams scored more than us in attack and i believe the Roosters and Panthers held the opposition to 6 or less...

Same abysmal conditions across the weekend...

It’s just “excuses” at this stage.

We can’t play 2019 football in 2021 with the rule changes and and older and slower backline and expect that we will magically come good.
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Re: Is Canberra Raiders' premiership window closing?

Post by BadnMean »

Making excuses for the games lost is fine, and they are relevant points.

But when we were real good 2 years ago, we could beat Melbourne even with 2 players doing stints in the bin. Joey could shove firecrackers into his eyeball 30 seconds before kick off and we'd find a way to win.

Top teams find a way to overcome adversity. Teams that aren't so good, don't. If we are so fragile we crumble to pieces any time we lose a player to a HIA I do not believe we are a premiership team. Because it's going to happen every 2nd week, it's not some rare unnaccountable mishap.

I don't like it, but I feel like some of you guys are going to see the gap between haves and have nots in the backline stakes become pretty apparent in the next 6 weeks as we roll into these games vs the top teams. I hope I look a total goose and I'm wrong but I don't think so.
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